14 day quarantine
 

On BBC news now the gov is to enforce a 14 day quarantine for any arriving pax into UK airports from the end of May excluding ROI . If its true that's it we are all out of job goodbye to the aviation industry.

And why now all of a sudden, on the face of it we’ve had no screening at ports and only limited quarantines, why not 3 months ago when this all kicked off?

There’s to be a “consultation” tomorrow with the airlines and there will also be exemptions for key workers according to the bbc news website. If that’s the case it hardly seems to be credible, either it’s needed for everyone or it’s not needed at all. The industry is already bleeding on the floor, I didn’t expect a conservative government to kick it to death.

I think it would be wise to see what actually transpires tomorrow before getting into a panic, there’s nothing official just yet.

You are probably right, but I would have to say that having been involved in a repatriation flight at the start of all this, from the Far east, and having seen our assembled multitude being decanted back into the UK without a sniff of anybody being checked, let alone quarantined, that if anything is introduced i it's a case of "stable, door, bolted", etc, and only being done for political..sorry, cosmetic purposes.

Entirely predictable, it had already kicked off weeks before you believe it started (France now confirming covid infection in pneumonia patients in December for example), constraining arriving pax when the situation is already out of control makes little difference (apparently), now things are trending down infected pax entering the country are really not ideal. Other countries are or are already enforcing similar, more will inevitably follow.

Given global pax air traffic is one of the if not the primary means of spread, this is entirely predictable, inevitable and necessary . . .

The harder the lockdown the faster it passes, the UK gov have been lax and incompetent, perhaps intentionally (i.e. they are murderers), so it'll last longer and cost more lives and to the economy . . . whether you voted for a smart *rse latin talking chimp who is absolutely incapable of dealing with this (or any other) issue, only you will know . . . if you did . . . chapeau . . . you get what you asked for . . .

14 days seems to be a common quarantine starter length. Norway sample has just announced they are reducing it from 14 to 10 days on FHI (Peoples Health institute) expert advice. Doesn't stop they who have to go for job reasons for longer periods, like oil or farm workers. There will be rules coming with it that eases the quarantine. Sample 1 crane driver on a special crane that lay tracks in a new railroad tunnel spent his quarantine in the crane cabin. So one can declare a workplace as the place of quarantine. Plus there will probably be excemptions for certain workers based on national needs.
More direct flying will be needed, and in greater quantities than today. Looked up a Dublin-Trondheim trip. Only scheduled option came up as a 3 day journey via Island. And the alternatives are not there since car ferries are not running and you can't drive across European borders.

fergusd, has the gist of it.

Deaths still keep on occurring. Hospitals still mainly empty, Non Covids dropping like flies for lack of treatment. Apparently the UK is one of the only countries not screening new arrivals. Yet we are on a downward trend.

​​​​​​Now we want to impose a two week quarantine. It's non sensical. We are closed for business.

18% of the UK population are over the age of 65. They are at most risk and account for 80% of deaths. So we shut down our society. Furlough our taxpayers and bankrupt our future to provide protection to people who are in no position to contribute financially to society.

The lunatics are running the asylum.

Before people start on about the heartlessness of this we all need to consider risk. Something we as pilots should do routinely. Does the risk to over 65s warrant the risk to the economy and future generations. I say no.

Epidemiologist Professor Johan Giesecke writes in The Lancet…

“… facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.”

Yet we persist in screwing ourselves economically. Madness. My comment.

This seems an exercise in utter futility, inasmuch as the number of non-Britons who are willing to pay to travel to that country under such terms can probably be counted on the fingers of one hand.

I'm at a loss to know why the British government did not simply say that there will be no commercial aviation until further notice.

The lockdown was never meant to be until this "passes". The purpose was never to get rid of the virus. The sole purpose was to "protect the NHS". Given that the much trumpeted Nightingale hospital in London never got above 1% of capacity, and ITUs across the country (like the one my wife works in) never came close to using the excess capacity and staff that they'd co-opted, the clear implication is that the lockdown came too soon.

I don't think the government's handling has been lax at all, and that is exactly the problem. It has made scared political decisions, in thrall to a baying media who have whipped up public terror constantly throughout this fiasco. This proposed 14 day quarantine is another unwelcome, ultimately unenforceable knee jerk reaction to be seen to be doing something useful.

British Government's moto:

Making it up as we go along.

It's too late to start placing people in 14 day quarantine. British Government, you've let in too many people to our country in the last 2 months for this to have any affect other than to destroy the economy further. But then, by doing so, further down the line, you will increase taxes. So screw people now with the 14 day rule, and screw your own people next year onwards with tax hikes.

Australia has been doing it. Numbers much better than UK. As of yesterday less than 7000 total cases and less than 100 total deaths. Majority of cases traced to International Travel.

Those numbers are “all time”. UK has been getting numbers like that some days. The population ratio is not enough to justify those differences.

I’ve lost my job (temporarily I hope) and yes it’s horrific for the industry. But it’s working.

To late again as usual.
The Airports have had thousands of staff doing nothing for weeks now.
A sensible screening and tracking system at the start for anyone arriving would have helped in tracking the small amount of people arriving in the country.
Politicians can't even make their minds up whether masks should be compulsory worn.

This is a terrible situation & I pretty much agree with all of what has been said, so far. But, do not even begin to imagine that the Govt. knows what it is doing. It NEVER has done - to that extent, we are doomed ! In fact, no one knows what is best to do. We simply have to keep our fingers crossed & hope for the best. This virus will not physically destroy mankind, but with the help of those in charge it will make a damn good job of completely impoverishing us all !

I am pretty sure the UK is just moving in line with other countries. Germany has a home quarantine rule of 14 days for anyone other than business travellers, who can spend a limited amount of time abroad. Austria requires certification of a negative test for visits other than work travel.

Up to that point, the UK was an exception rather than the norm in terms of cross-border travel. Quarantine is mandated on arrivals from abroad pretty much everywhere else in Europe. Austria is leading the way for now by allowing the quarantine to be replaced by a negative test, done either at VIE airport at the eye-watering cost of €190 or at an independent lab before the trip for one third of that cost.

It's another matter how timely such a measure is or whether imported cases are the biggest problem while the virus is running rampant across the local population. And, obviously, its introduction will smash up most of the efforts to start restoring some degree of connectivity by now.

The Tories control the MSM so that can’t be right ... it’s very clear that No.10 brief then what to write (like last Thu)

If this was an advisory, to stay low as far as possible for ten days to two weeks, then maybe it would make more sense.
In Japan I read (perhaps back in February?) that they were handing out leaflets to arriving passengers advising them not to use public transport, and to head straight to one registered address for quarantine, though I doubt many followed that to the letter.

Conference call
 

I think this conference call , chaired by aviation minister Kelly Tolhurst, could be VERY interesting. Very strange they bring this in now, but I’m really hoping it’s part of a phased approach whereby they reduce it gradually over a period of 3-4 weeks and it’s a targeted policy from certain destinations which ‘follows scientific evidence’ .However I doubt it is being thought through properly and is probably not being coordinated with other nations.

Strangley , the only people who use aviation that are not as affected here are retired, those at potentially more risk, as self isolation is not the end of the world after a trip away. Although the FCO ‘advice’ is not to travel , maybe they might relax some of this advice , allowing rules similar to Germany. Short trips no quarantine, longer ones 14 days quarantine. As it’s leaked , let’s see what actually comes out later.

This could genuinely finish commercial aviation without significant financial help from Government. Help they seem very reluctant to offer.

It works, although it may be of less benefit if its right through your community already...

Australia brought in 14 quarantine here, just in the nick of time too. Most cases are from international travel returning. Very little community transmission here, luckily.

Currently, pax in and outbound restricted to essential and compassionate, sent to government hotels for 14 days. Aircrew can self isolate at home for 14 days, or until the next flight.

I'm lucky enough to be self isolating between flights.

Apart from the short term effect of killing off Virgin Atlantic, these restrictions will cause enormous damage to the rest of the UK air transport industry. The quarantine restriction seems to be aimed at stopping the virus being 'seeded' again by asymptomatic people arriving from other countries. Logically it will have to be applied until a mass vaccination programme has been completed, even if no new cases have been reported in the UK for several weeks. If an effective vaccine is not found, what then?

Mr Mac that is definitely in line with the current rules that I have just checked. But if you decide to remain in Germany as you suggested earlier then you could well be required to work from 'home' in Germany for 14 days. I am sure your legal department will be on top of this. What is clear though is that the UK is pretty late to the party with restrictions on international travel. The Gisaid website with its timelapse virus mutations demonstrates how Covid spread by plane and probably why London and New York are the worst effected places on the planet.

I can imagine Mr Walsh was very keen to influence any consultation. Pick a date when you plan to start up again then encourage HMG to introduce restrictions to prevent the competition getting one step ahead. I can imagine it will all be lifted on 01 July.

Having operated several times at LHR during the lockdown I was surprised that no screening of any description was taking place. The technology is available with large TV screens measuring temperatures along with a form to fill out. Yes it take time but worth it in my view.
Have we learnt nothing from previous outbreaks that threaten the world?
I was in Sierra Leone when the Ebola virus was in its early stages and on leaving the country forms had to be filled out and temperature taken and for arrivals as well. Ebola was virtually contained within west Africa .
i know the symptoms are different with Covid19, but I think we have been far too slow to react to screening pax.
I agree this is a major blow to our industry and a government bailout is now needed to save the UK aviation industry

https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4...-post-covid-19

”Germany, like the UK and many other major economies around the world, has been under mounting pressure from business leaders, green groups, think tanks, and economists to resist the urge to rebuild coronavirus-hit economies in carbon-intensive ways, and in the short-term avoid bailing out polluting sectors, such as aviation, without stringent environmental conditions attached.”

From what I’m reading of the Petersberg Climate Dialogue at the end of April, it sounds like multiple governments want to tie covid recovery with green issues, it might go some way to explain the government seemingly wanting to damage mass commercial air transport.

“”The harder the lockdown the faster it passes, the UK gov have been lax and incompetent, perhaps intentionally (i.e. they are murderers), so it'll last longer and cost more lives and to the economy . . . whether you voted for a smart *rse latin talking chimp who is absolutely incapable of dealing with this (or any other) issue, only you will know . . . if you did . . . chapeau . . . you get what you asked for . . .“”


extraordinary rant!


its doubtful any government could have done much better than this given the lack of readiness that ALL governments are guilty of. We do largely get the politicians we deserve as those who speak bluntly with hard truths don’t get elected.
warnings of such virus’s have been made and talked about for decades in the scientific community but nobody in power ( or the public at large)took any notice.
In particular , our insistence on travelling anywhere without taking the blindest bit of notice about its effects or potential to spread such a virus has been a major factor .

there were major international protocols agreed in 2008 following SARS to cope with this but governments throughout the world threw the rule book out of the window , probably out of a mixture of panic ( helped along as ever by sensationalist press, uncontrolled crap on social media and a largely scientifically uneducated population) and unpreparedness as soon as a real pandemic hit.

In the U.K. , in particular, we have happily moved our manufacturing base abroad ( hence a lack of PPE and chemicals available for testing kits easily to hand) but we have an amazing health system so it’s not surprising the government prioritised that, especially after seeing Italy’s very modern system on the brink of collapse.

As for the issue in this thread, it raises many questions so we’ll have to wait for the detail but it’s possible that it helps to prevent ‘re-seeding’ the virus. It is also possible the government sees it as a way of permanently cutting aviation to meet climate targets - something which is pointless of course if it’s not done internationally. It certainly will help wipe out a large part of the aviation industry if it’s not financially mitigated against.

At the end of this there will either be a vaccine, medicines to mitigate the virus’s effects or enough herd immunity so that the virus becomes just another disease that we routinely accept kills several thousand older people each year, as in flu, until the next one comes along.

Theres no way aviation can carry on as it was before this as it plays a critical part in spreading such diseases so probably health checks, temp scans etc etc will be with us permanently, as in the security procedures after 9/11 and perhaps a permanent reduction in flying may not be a bad thing from an environmental impact point of view. ( separate debate)

The answer should be to protect the most vulnerable and get the rest back into work but as a politician you then have to tell over 70’s ( for example) to stay indoors and then answer the people who lose somebody younger so back to the top, there’s no point in ranting and criticising everything the government dies as none of us could do any better given our political system


Read a book ... ‘ how contagion works’. By Paulo Giordini - it helps explain the conundrum we’re in

Given that “key workers” are likely to be exempted and, at the moment, are probably are the overwhelming number of people travelling by air (don’t think there are many holidaymakers), then how does quarantining a small fraction of those on a flight do anything at all?

Totally inept UK Gov,peopled with utter wallies , as usual, way beyond the drag curve. Stacks of views all over the place highlighting what other Governments did. UK just followed but too little too late. Here's a further example but, hey, we elected the clots ! Allusion to the notion that the UK Gov knows exactly what is going on and in the case of Border Control, LACK of control , was justifiably criminal, has been blind sided or heavily edited. Why ? It is not hindsight. Lack of appropriate action led to these predictable results.

My biggest laugh of the day was the Gov suggesting that screening of inbound pax at LHR was of a small proportion to those already infected and would therefore be, pointless. Daily briefings by plonkers like Hancock steered towards the numbers game. Percentage of this, proportion of that, a few graphs. Most listening would be yawning ,lost, or both.

When I was being groomed for a roll in Training, I expressed concern with having to deal with very difficult questions sometimes posed by Trainees. I was told to just fob them off with the numbers game, stats & graphs ! I don't recall Johnson, Hancock & the other wasters being in the group with me but goodness gracious, these guys are good !

Not quite so many laughing at the idea of collusion, NWO ( rather than the biggots in the WHO) and the complete con of tracing APPS on your "smart" phone. Wake up people.

FullWings

yep, agree with your observation about who is flying in/out of the UK by air at the moment..

It looked (well until this rumour started) as if some airlines were looking at starting to rebuild their short haul programmes in a very limited way perhaps from July onwards - if any quarantine is announced that applies to everybody ( not just those those arriving from outside Europe) then I suspect those plans will go back on ice and TBH I'm then not sure how any UK based airline can ride this out.

Still, I expect those with a financial interest in Butlins, Pontins, Centre Parcs etc will be happy........

Really??? How about telling people not to go to pubs and restaurants but not forcing those places to close down. How did that work out? Same with getting adults to self distance to stop the spread but keeping the schools open for all. Yet another late U turn there. We watched this virus coming and did nothing. We should have acted 6 weeks earlier when we would have had less trouble sourcing PPE and testing kits. We might have found ourselves in a better position than S Korea, Germany, Greece etc. Our governments incompetence has cost thousands of lives.

Of the 3 people I know that have died from Covid-19, 2 were under 55 with no underlying health conditions, but both worked worked in public transport enviroment and were subjected to high viral load conditions over a period of many days prior to lockdown.
All public transportation will be affected by this in the coming 18 months, not just aviation, but sadly, UK Govt are not interested in supporting aviation as it's after the green vote, so will happily cast it aside. Don't forget Boris stated he would lay down in front of the bulldozers of a 3rd runway at LHR, which is why HMG said in Jan they would not be appealing the court decision on LHR expansion. If this virus is with us for ever, the money being pumped into HS2 will be even more of a white elephant than many predicted before this virus took hold as no one will be using it!
The only way this virus will be eradicated outside a lab, will be to deny it human host for long enough......that means all countries isolating themselves until zero community transmission occurs for 21 days at least.
My job at Heathrow was terminated a month ago, and its highly unlikely I will ever work there or in aviation again.

Too little too late. Are there any pax flights still arriving or has the govt missed the boat?

"Figures released to Labour MP Stephen Doughty showed that fewer than 300 people arriving in the UK were quarantined in the run-up to coronavirus lockdown on 23 March. The Home Office figures showed that just 273 of about 18.1 million arrivals had to spend time in isolation in the first three months of the year, including passengers on three planes from Wuhan, the centre of the initial outbreak in China.

The BBC reported on Friday night that aviation minister Kelly Tolhurst is expected to discuss the proposals with airline and airport representatives in a conference call on Saturday morning."

From The Guardian today.

What about operating crew of international flights on a overnight layover?

It seems that there are some more issues that governments (and some industries) would like to push in the wake and in the shadow of Covid:
Mandatory tracking of individuals via smartphones, abandoning cash money, climate agenda and compulsory vaccination come to my mind. Certainly, there would be more.

The Telegraph, Times and others baying for the impossible and picking out the incompetence of the pre lockdown Government policies? They are really left wing rags "Not!" The Daily Mail is the worst for Sh*te stirring. If people can catch Covid, they will not fly unless totally essential. I saw that with the foot fall drop off in late Feb and early Marchon the fly prog system for my lot.

So we’re going to have a mock-consultation with the airlines to “discuss” their de-facto shutdown. What’s the logic in restricting access from areas with much lower rates than UK and is there any evidence that doing so will help?

I also see that questions are being raised as to the credibility of Prof. Ferguson’s software as it appears to be ridden with bugs and gives different answers depending on the computer it is run on. The post flight review of this crisis is going to be worth reading.

I would like to see the reasoning behind this suggestion as it seems a very odd time to bring these restrictions in. We are currently seeing a fall in cases and death rates, the NHS was never overwhelmed (the original case for bringing in the lockdown), we never ran out of ventilators and currently 40% of critical care beds in the NHS are empty. I would have thought that now would be the time to relax restrictions, not increase them.