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Political View
There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had. Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance. |
Originally Posted by andrasz
(Post 10659955)
One lingering question remains, and hopefully the investigaton will shed some light on this. There appears to be a gap between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.
“The military was at its highest level of readiness” amid the heightened tensions with the US, it said, adding: “In such a condition, because of human error and in an unintentional way, the flight was hit.” The military apologised for the disaster and said it would upgrade its systems to prevent such mistakes in the future. The responsible parties would be referred to a judicial department within the military and held accountable, it said.' This suggests that both training and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's missile systems/communications were to blame. FR24 tracking (such as it is) shows the flight was on its normal flight path leaving Imam Khomeini International Airport, which either means the Iranians located a "sensitive military centre" near the normal flight path of a major civilian airport, or that that they are being economical with the actualité. You can make your own mind up on that one. |
Originally Posted by lapp
(Post 10659941)
Obsviously it didn't, I believe Iran is trying to leverage the fact that "it turned -period-", incidentally toward the base which had been identified very early, and from where with good likeliness the missile was fired.
That just to beef up the excusing factors. Clearly it turned after impact, but the "detail" that it happened as a consequence is left out. Remember their communications are largely destined to be absorbed only domestically. Then with time this "detail" will lose any importance and become forgotten. Their task ahead is to bring this to closure quickly, so I don't expect they will be to disputing further, now the general attention must be shifted away from this very sad accident. posted by fox_niners before https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a92e779395.jpg |
Atakacs, as regards the Itavia case (I was a small kid at that time, it was 1980, middle of the Cold War, in a VERY different world from today, pre-Internet) actually Francesco Cossiga (Italian PM and even president of the Italian Republic) stated very clearly in 2007 that the flight was downed by a French missile, and that France wasn't absolutely willing to cooperate.
As for the rest... I absolutely agree with MFC Fly. The dawn prayer is considered of crucial importance in the day, and throughout the Muslim world you are typically waken up by the adhan (very loud call for prayer on loudspeakers, all over cities/towns, you will be waken up inside your hotel room) at 05:30, or similar... like it's broad daylight. People are going to the mosque, or praying at home, but it's like: "the day has started". |
Originally Posted by SAMXXV
(Post 10659991)
As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nnocent-people
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Originally Posted by SAMXXV
(Post 10659991)
As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nnocent-people
In a similar vein, one article I heard of mentions other Iranian SAM and AA control problems -- shooting at their own forces -- while all keyed up for war, although it seems to be talking more about the 2007-2008 era, just after Israel bombed their nuclear facility: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/w...n-strikes.html And as has been pointed out 'the best trained & best equipped' may fail too, as in the USS Vincennes. One still wonders why this particular flight got targeted, when airliners had already been taking off from the airport through the early hours of the morning, and the base has always been close to airline departure routes. That's where the Iranian government start blaming the airliner for 'coming close to' or 'turning towards' the military facilty, even though the flight path seems no different than of all the other airliners. New morning shift at the SAM battery? Some equipment malfunction there? There was also that speculation that the airliner actually had some problem and started turning back (= towards the military facility) before the shooting started, without contacting ATC first, but I guess that is unlikely and probably can be ruled out by better analysis of the tracks & other events. |
Still there's a lot of investigating need to be done and precisely explained how this mistake could have happened. Then it's proven it wasn't intentional. Don't give me plane did this or that, turned whatever, when there's absolutely nothing unusual about the flight behavior. Delayed little less than 1 hr that's hardly unusual. Lack of any common sense to double-check it's not a civilian aircraft when you are right next to the airport. And dozen ways to do so, even looking at the sky - they all failed. Why?
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On the location of the TLAR for the launch:
The video has the sound of what appears to be the booster of the 9m331 missile, similar to the sound of the test firing in 2007 by the Iranians. That precludes the launch location being the berm area of the site to the WNW of the aircraft. From the prepared site, the missile noise would have been received after the impact, not before. The site of the launcher at firing has to be proximate to the observer, and to the west of them. That location would pick up the aircraft coming into view on the initial climb out of the airport, and on a track that would be offset from the direct to launcher bearing by a small angle, it would be attention getting if you are anxiously awaiting an inbound wild weasel HARM launch. Early on, the built up area may mask the primary target and even possibly the SSR ID, so could be seen as a pop up, leading to a snap shot (takes out ADSB?), and the follow up which is then captured on video. launcher location may be a significant factor to the decision to launch by the SAM crew. FDR |
Originally Posted by KiloB
(Post 10659993)
There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had. Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance. |
Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem
(Post 10660082)
If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem
(Post 10660082)
If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.
Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 |
Originally Posted by foxcharliep2
(Post 10660095)
The stamp is legit and real, it was issued 11 August 1988 by Iran.
Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 |
There was no collateral damage during the Baghdad Airport strike......none.
It was done in a manner so there would be no collateral damage. If you wish to claim collateral damage for the shoot down of the airliner.....then you would have to point the finger at the Iranians as it was Iranian forces that launched the miissiles, ballistic missiles first then the SAM's. The US Military did not respond to those attacks and certainly fired no weapons. So....ya'll that want to talk collateral damage....how do you blame the USA when they fired no weapons inside Iran and no where near Tehran? Come on guys....get real! |
One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...
We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc. We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground. But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they? |
Originally Posted by MFC_Fly
(Post 10660107)
One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...
We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc.etc. We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground. But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they? It's an un-nerving picture to look at. |
Originally Posted by MFC_Fly
(Post 10660107)
One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...
We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc. We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground. But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they? |
Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200...e-88623339.jpg |
Originally Posted by unworry
(Post 10660090)
According to the wikipedia page for Iran Air Flight 644, it's "a 45 rial postage stamp released by Iran on 11 August 1988 titled Disastrous U.S. missile attack against Iranian air liner."
Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available. RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again! . |
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/4440...nger-plane-had
TEHRAN – Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, said on Saturday that after he became “confident” that the Ukrainian passenger plane had been shot down erroneously by the Iranian air defense system “I wished death”. The passenger plane, with 179 people aboard, was mistakenly downed on Wednesday morning. It happened a few hours after Iran fired dozens of missiles at the U.S. airbase inside Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3. Hajizadeh said he was in western Iran when the incident happened. “I will accept all the responsibilities for this incident,” he told a press conference. He added, “We will obey any decision by officials.” |
Originally Posted by liider
(Post 10660115)
Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200...e-88623339.jpg |
Originally Posted by liider
(Post 10660115)
Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200...e-88623339.jpg |
Originally Posted by Tetsuo
(Post 10660131)
From this it appears to me that they started to assemble parts of the Airframe on a separate site. Note the remaining wreckage in the background on the left. Investigation perhaps?
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Originally Posted by one post only!
(Post 10660004)
You probably are. I am no fan of a trump at all, but the tension and bad feeling started well before Trump. It began decades ago. But more recently don’t forget the Americans that were killed by Iranian militia. Or the oil tankers. Or the Saudi oil fields. Be under no illusion this is not trumps fault. But both sides can go back many years with claim and counter claim. This isn’t one persons fault. This is deep seated hatred and distrust.
The main lesson in this is, if airlines won’t stop operating into war zones then the regulators need to do their jobs and take steps preemptively to prevent this kind of thing from happening. They need to grow some balls and as soon as tensions rise ban flights. That was a sudden escalation won’t catch people out. ICAO agreements. , also don't regulate, they only provide a framework for like minded compliance. In the end it's up to the laws in the nation to decide what gets regulated in the civilian world (but this was a military action). I'm afraid that the airline itself was ignorant of the high-level-of-tension in the Iranian military at that hour. For this we need a fix |
On another forum, someone claimed to have seen photos of the cockpit area, with evident shrapnel damage.
I asked a question about this, was this new or an interpretation of previously seen photos, and someone else replied. https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/iran-foreign-minister-a-sad-day-our-profound-regrets-apologies-and-condolences.html?cn-reloaded=1 https://www.kyivpost.com/wp-content/...52092416_o.jpg (same photo as posted here a few minutes ago, while I was getting this) |
Less Hair said "Looks like they immediately fired at it when picking it up. I read somewhere Tor can be set to auto fire mode. As soon as it's radar picks up anything the missiles go off. No button pressing needed, squawk doesn't matter"
Yes, that is what I have read. Although the that should only happen if an unfriendly (or no return) was detected by the IFF system. DV |
Originally Posted by Hot 'n' High
(Post 10660121)
Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available.
RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again! . |
Originally Posted by retired guy
(Post 10660150)
I wish that even after now admitting that it was a missile strike, they would not still try and introduce an element of justification . . .
In the wake of the shootdown of Iran Air 655, a political scientist at George Washington University published a study* comparing US media coverage of the Soviet shootdown of KAL 007 with the Vincennes' downing of the Iranian flight. He found that in the case of KAL, "the angle taken by the US media emphasized the moral bankruptcy and guilt of the perpetrating nation. With Iran Air 655, the frame de-emphasised guilt and focused on the complex problems of operating military high technology." It's a pretty interesting piece of research. * Robert M Entman, ‘Framing US coverage of international news: Contrasts in narratives of the KAL and Iran Air incidents’ in Journal of Communication, vol 41, no 4, Washington DC, December 1991. Newsweek covers related to the two incidents: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....773023fe41.jpg This past summer, Le Monde Diplomatique ran an article that seems on-point in relation to this discussion and citing the above-referenced study*: US and Iran, Short Memories |
From the Kyiv Post link above:
A statement by the Iranian Armed Forces on Jan. 11 said the plane was mistakenly shot after it changed course and started flying towards a military base. The statement blamed hostile U.S. military actions for a state of heightened alert, but also acknowledged the need for “fundamental reforms” to prevent such an occurrence in the future. It also promised a full report and to hold accountable those responsible for the loss of life. Here’s a rough translation of the statement: “The noble and revolutionary Iranian Islamic nation, In the wake of the heartbreaking crash of a Boeing passenger plane, a Ukrainian airline that crashed in the early hours of Wednesday morning (Jan. 8), in the wake of a missile attack on the U.S. base of criminals and the possible impact of military action on the incident, the Armed Forces immediately set up an inspection team composed of technical and operational experts, independent of the State Aviation Authority, to investigate this possibility, and the results of the round-the-clock review are made available to the Honorable Iranian People: 1. Following the threats of President (Donald J. Trump) and the criminal America’s military commanders targeting a large number of targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the event of a counter-operation and in view of the unprecedented increase in air traffic in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces were prepared to respond to possible threats at the highest level. 2. In the hours after the missile strikes, US terrorist forces’ warplanes around the country increased, and some reports of airstrikes targeting strategic centers in the country were reported to numerous defense units and targets on some radar plates. Caused greater sensitivity in air defense complexes. 3. In such critical and critical conditions, Flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and, unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals. 4. The Armed Forces staff, while expressing condolences and sympathy to the grieving families of other countries and the apologies for the human error, giving full assurance that the pursuit of fundamental reforms in the operational processes at the Armed Forces level can be repeated. Make such errors impossible and immediately report the culprit to the Armed Forces Judicial Organization in order to deal with any legal errors. 5. It was also announced that the relevant authorities in the Revolutionary Guards should, as soon as possible, present detailed explanations to the people of Iran.”
Originally Posted by Iron Duck
(Post 10660137)
Apologies if these three related questions have already been answered elsewhere.
1 The Iranians claim the flight was overflying a sensitive military area. Is it marked on the charts? I can hardly imagine the SID would have taken it there. Does the ADS-B data show the flight deviating from the SID? https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....88a04b7999.jpg And as FR24 posted in their blog (which was later picked up by the New York Times), other flights before the shootdown had similar departure paths. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a1efcaae1b.jpg |
The ADS-B transmissions likely stopped because damage from the missile's warhead disconnected the transponder from the GPS antenna that it uses (from earlier in this thread). If that was indeed the case, VHF communications would likely have been affected as well, which explains why there was no mayday or any other call from the crew. That picture of the cockpit and front section of the aircraft suggests that the missile did NOT detonate on the port side, although it's not really possible from the picture to say definitively that it exploded on the starboard side. That said, it would be consistent with the scenario of losing #2 engine with a resulting turn to the right. If the crew hadn't been incapacitated (or killed outright like MH17), they would also probably have continued the right turn in an attempt to return to the airport.
Given that the plane was flying at 275 knots and the missile was likely fired at it head on, it would make sense that the detonation occurred somewhere just aft of the cockpit, severing the connections to communications antennas and probably destroying #2 engine. There was likely a hydraulic system problem as well, and possibly a wing fuel tank puncture and fire. I haven't posted enough to put a pic in here (or an URL), but you can see the 737-800 antenna locations at w w w.b737.org.uk/images/antennalocations_ng.gif |
Originally Posted by AnglianAV8R
(Post 10660188)
Hold on cowboy ! It just might be the case that the investigators need to confirm that the downing of the aircraft by a missile is the ONLY issue in the downing of the aircraft. Bear in mind that there have been some very sensible questions raised about possible issues before the hit. Until these questions are clarified NOTHING "is just debris".
Which issues do you feel most need answering? Could you list your top 5 things related to what may be found in the wreckage - now that the ultimate factor, accidental missile launch, is confirmed - that you feel may be contributing factors? While the CVR and FDR may hold some revelations in systems performance, or lack thereof, facts which are to date unknown, those boxes have been declared as found. (And I'll guess useful/readable) I'll offer a few things that I think may be of interest to those operating in this region that are probably outside the scope of a material investigation angle:
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@Lonewolf_50 "Cowboy" was banter mode engaged ;) As for what they might want to find..My thoughts on this are that the investigators would seek to clarify that the aircraft and systems were functioning correctly prior/up to the moment they took the hit. In other words, a process of deduction. The aim being to ensure nothing important is overlooked. My investigation experience is not aviation related, but processes have similarities in terms of the basic approach. The bottom line, from my experience, is that nothing "is just debris" until all possible causes/issues have been ruled either in or out.
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There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.
35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E |
Originally Posted by MPN11
(Post 10660233)
There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.
35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fae6e7c0af.jpg |
Originally Posted by canyonblue737
(Post 10660151)
its laughable to think the highest levels of the Iranian government weren’t aware of the shoot down within hours of the tragedy. It just took 3 days to calculate if there was any realistic way of hiding the reality. That the truth has come out and an apology extended is a good thing for closure but let’s go easy on the praise of any nation after they kill hundreds of defenseless civilians.
Given how such ME governments operate (and the fear of possible and extreme punishment that may await those who were at the LCP and in the chain of command leading away from that LCP will probably have hampered the flow of information), the “fog of war” so created no doubt added to delay in “owning up” to what I suspect was a genuine mistake. The Iranian government was probably caught completely off guard themselves. Knowing something has happened is one thing; getting heads round it is something else. But they “owned up"; the reasons for "owning up" may be cynical or otherwise – who knows what conversations were had in the upper echelons. However, to those affected, it may mean some closure at least within quite a short timescale, certainly compared to MH17. But, it seems, one also has to ask yet more questions regarding flights generally within/over nations involved in such conflicts – particularly if there has been recent, rather obvious, provocation. That major lesson was brought out in Section 9.4 of the MH17 shoot-down Report by the Dutch; that of requiring adequate risk assessment. It's trying to define what "adequate" is which is the real problem - and I guess we'll never have it 100%. Perhaps some weighting of variables such as "robustness of chain of command" may have to be reviewed in the light of this sad event. Yet again, the fact you may be a bystander in any conflict is absolutely no guarantee of safety in a world of confusion and human fallibility! Time to dust that risk assessment criteria down again in many Airline Boardrooms? |
Whoa.....public protests by Iranians in Iran calling for the Regime's Leaders to step down.....now who would have guessed.
They are asking why the Iranian Government did not shut down Iranian Airspace due to the situation ongoing. It would appear lots of people are wanting some answers from the Ayatollahs. http://news.trust.org/item/20200111165001-pawh6 |
Compensation
Inevitably there will be a compensation payout which will not compensate adequately for the loss of loved ones.
Perhaps a more fitting response by the leaders of Iran would also include decision to cease its destabilising role in the Middle East. To know that a loved one’s death helped bring about a change in the outlook there might be a lasting legacy. One can only hope their deaths are not measured just in dollars and cents |
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10660240)
I think that is indeed the site of the 'missile research facility'.
Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see. |
It was following an established SID (Parot 3G). Other earlier departing aircraft had followed very similar tracks.
So the question is; why didn't the missile system's IFF correctly interpret the ADB-S squawk as civilian as opposed to a potential hostile? Sorry if a bl**dy silly question. |
Trying a swing at what Lonewolf_50 asked about objectives in examining wreckage:
Not taking issue with premise that missile launch was accidental (not questioning the premise here, that is). Also not going into particular elements of the many - and sometimes varied - subject areas AIB reports usually reach. Instead this incident appears as one which justifies, as well as demands, a complete investigatory work-up and report, even though some key questions won't be addressed (as earlier posts observed). If there is going to be a stronger push for realistic and still meaningful methods to address conflict zones much more effectively, having as full an Annex 13 process and resulting report very likely will be critically important. Certain ICAO Member States could, quite predictably, raise objections (fake or not) about stronger CZ initiatives. With a good, strong and complete Annex 13 process and report in one's briefcase, these cycical objectors could be told to pound sand -- though in the nicey-nice politesse of diplomats' lexicons, of course! |
I guess there is little to no value for civil aviation to continue this investigation, everyone just better save efforts and money for the next occasion. To save multinational investigation a year and a few million bucks I can draft the safety recommendations here:
1) commission recommends to avoid flight operations within active war risk areas in order to reduce probability of being shot down by air defence |
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