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Salute!
Yeah, Bubba, looks like the CVR will provide more than the gruesome data plots. I mentioned something to 'bird about a possible crew change of position nd then a bit of turbulence that moved bodies about. I am not ruling that out except for the power change. gums... |
That is indeed a headscratcher...
Too bad nothing from the CVR |
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6e2e9e3de5.jpg
WASHINGTON (March 12, 2019) — The descent of Atlas Air flight 3591 and the communication between air traffic control and the aircraft pilots on Feb. 23, 2019, is depicted in this graphic. Atlas Air flight 3591, carrying cargo for Amazon and the U.S. Postal Service, crashed about 40 miles from Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Three people died in the crash. (NTSB Graphic) This is in agreement with DaveReidUK's ADS-B data analysis posted here the day after the mishap:
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 10399121)
The FR24 data, as usual, contains numerous artifacts and synchronisation issues.
That said, once cleaned up it appears to show a slight but unmistakeable climb interrupting the descent just before reaching 6000', starting about 10 seconds before the beginning of the final dive. It's exaggerated, obviously, in this foreshortened view (apologies for the skewed verticals): https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....acd45a5f99.jpg |
Also, about this time, the FDR data indicated that some small vertical accelerations consistent with the airplane entering turbulence. Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up and then rapidly pitched nose down to about 49° in response to column input. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate. FDR, radar, and ADS-B data indicated that the airplane entered a rapid descent on a heading of 270°, reaching an airspeed of about 430 knots. A security camera video captured the airplane in a steep, generally wings-level attitude until impact with the swamp. FDR data indicated that the airplane gradually pitched up to about 20 degrees nose down during the descent. Yeah, I am reaching, but that seems really weird to me. |
There aren't many explanations that would push the throttles and yoke forward at the same time...
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This is not even speculation, just a "scenario" that might fit that reported throttle and control-input reading.
Massive incapacitation of PF (bird through the windscreen, medical, other), body pitches forward onto both column and (hand) throttle levers. Nose-over forces make it impossible for the other pilot and jumpseater to clear the controls until too late (that possible last-second attempt to get the nose up). EDIT: I see I'm not alone - but it would certainly require a "Black Swan" event. |
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 10415310)
There aren't many explanations that would push the throttles and yoke forward at the same time...
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Has it been stated that the CVR cannot provide additional information? As I read the release from the NTSB issued on 7th March it suggests that with filtering it may be possible to determine more elements of FD communications and environmental noise. Today's information offered by 9gmax, although I can't see it on the NTSB website, seems only to include ATC communications which are likely to have come from ground recordings. The earlier release talks about crew communications being consistent with a loss control of the aircraft....but this is not really consistent with FD actions. As with the ET accident, I find the wording of the information that is being issued by key agencies to be interesting - the text from NTSB refers to 'engines increased to maximum thrust', but does not mention TL movement. But, perhaps I am reading too much into this.
Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered. |
Originally Posted by LookingForAJob
(Post 10415335)
Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered.
|
Originally Posted by 9gmax
(Post 10415167)
FDR data indicated that the airplane gradually pitched up to about 20 degrees nose down during the descent.
The excerpt of what NTSB is sharing is interesting and basically is saying „not Beoing‘s fault“ - important due to ET crash. However, it offers no explanation to what initiated the maneuver, which could be very unfair to the crew. Fly Dubai was also not a „black swan”. |
Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
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Holy Cr@p.. Highjack, suicide, mental illness on the flight deck, Egypt 990 Allah Akbar, or what. Hopefully none of the above..:sad: |
An unexpected and sad turn in this accident....
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd
(Post 10415414)
Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
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Just wait for the answers
There's still a lot of information to come out. This guy is a respected former investigator whom most likely is talking with former colleagues. Gregory Allen "Greg" Feith is an American former Senior Air Safety Investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Today on Denver News Channel 9, while commenting on the 737 Max crashes, Greg Feith said this, verbatim: “...and a lot of carriers overseas, they are so automation dependent that they don’t know, based on their training, when to intervene, and if there is a problem they continue to try to use the automation. We’ve seen that now in three accidents. Lion Air, Ethiopian, and in fact, Atlas Air, the one that crashed in Houston. The automation was still coupled, the pilots didn’t hand fly the airplane when they lost control and even through the recovery they were fighting the automation.” |
Originally Posted by RoyHudd
(Post 10415414)
Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
|
Originally Posted by LookingForAJob
(Post 10415335)
Has it been stated that the CVR cannot provide additional information? As I read the release from the NTSB issued on 7th March it suggests that with filtering it may be possible to determine more elements of FD communications and environmental noise. Today's information offered by 9gmax, although I can't see it on the NTSB website, seems only to include ATC communications which are likely to have come from ground recordings. The earlier release talks about crew communications being consistent with a loss control of the aircraft....but this is not really consistent with FD actions. As with the ET accident, I find the wording of the information that is being issued by key agencies to be interesting - the text from NTSB refers to 'engines increased to maximum thrust', but does not mention TL movement. But, perhaps I am reading too much into this.
Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered. |
Ahh, thanks, I was looking for a news/media release.
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Atlas Air, the one that crashed in Houston. The automation was still coupled, the pilots didn’t hand fly the airplane when they lost control and even through the recovery they were fighting the automation.” |
Originally Posted by 9gmax
(Post 10415589)
The airplane then pitched nose down over the next 18 seconds to about 49° in response to nose-down elevator deflection. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate. |
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