Lion does have a history, though light on fatalities prior to this accident..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_A..._and_accidents Incidents and accidents
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The technical note of a previous crew might be an important clue. It could be quite difficult to fly the attitude when "STS was also running to the wrong direction (suspected because of speed difference)".
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Do the newer 737 do that funny thing with the trim soon after liftoff? I recall the 300's trim wheel would spin 3-4 times.
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With the Fr24 data available we can see the situation was serious very early in the flight, |
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 10296411)
Jesus, can WE see that? Some of you guys put way too much stock in what FR 24 shows.
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Originally Posted by StormyKnight
(Post 10296228)
Yes Flightradar does predict the path of flights when the data stops in real time, but only for a minute or so, then the plane usually stops at that point, then a little while latter it disappears. The tracking line then reverts back to the actual data received & removes the estimated components.
When you view the flight later or download the raw flight data it is only the received data, there is no estimated flight data. |
Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 10296411)
Jesus, can WE see that? Some of you guys put way too much stock in what FR 24 shows.
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
(Post 10295538)
So at least two people above have no grasp of critical angle and what a stall actually is. :rolleyes:
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+1 Hans. If air-sensors data is suspect, what good are algorithms built on top of them? That MAY just well be the case of FR24 records. |
Originally Posted by flyhigh85
(Post 10295829)
An aircraft can stall at any speed! It is the angle of attack which determines when stall (pitch angel) if they had flew at 350kt they would stall anyway if the nose was 40 degress nose up. A passenger airplane is is not designed nor have the trust required to do that, a rocket is a different thing. i can’t remember exactly how it is but if your static or pitot ports are blocked (either one) your airspeed will increase with altitude. So if they put on the autopilot after take off the plane will pitch up and up to contain the airspeed increase and rather quickly put the aircraft in an unusal attitude, nose high low airspeed (actual airspeed). Autopilot will disconnect and stall warning alarms etc. If the pilots don’t react quicly and correct the airplane will stall. There might be a startle factor for the crew as well, which delay their reaction time. This only speculations from my side anyway. Tragic to see another fatal accident in Indonesia. |
Originally Posted by .Scott
(Post 10295949)
Va= 260 kias at sea level
and 306 kias at 31,000 feet So, yes you could. |
Originally Posted by hans brinker
(Post 10296455)
This aircraft probably had at least 300 kts IAS towards the end of the recording, making a stall the least of their worries.
They have just fallen out of the sky. Literally. Can you pull/push that severe that the tail or elevator rips off? |
Originally Posted by wheels_down
(Post 10296466)
That’s what I don’t get. The speed in which it sunk is off the charts. It’s extreme. They have just fallen out of the sky. Literally. Can you pull/push that severe that the tail or elevator rips off? |
Eye witness report here, if this is not a repost:
https://japantoday.com/category/worl...e-off#comments Quote: The Boeing 737 MAX 8 literally fell out of the sky near where the two men were fishing about 15 km (9 miles) off the coast, silently at first and then with a deafening crash as it smacked into the sea. "You could feel the explosion from the shockwave in the water," said Gauk, who goes by only one name, telling the pair's story from the beach in Karawang regency. |
Originally Posted by das Uber Soldat
(Post 10296171)
This doesn't feel like vanilla unreliable speed to me. It may have been a contributing factor, but you don't lose control of a 737 doing over 300 knots in day vmc. You fly it level. Maybe you end up too slow and stall, but that clearly isn't what happened here. From the data it looks like a very high speed, extreme nose down attitude.
Either something mechanical has failed, or after a contributing factor, such as unreliable speed that has been mishandled, structural damage has occurred that has culminated in the final catastrophic dive. |
Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem
(Post 10296478)
Who says it was Day VMC? Fair weather at the airport does not mean there were no clouds in the area. They could have been IMC shortly after departure. |
The airport was to the left of them after the initial turn, If they had full control of the aircraft they were in a ideal position for a return to CGK but it looks to me like they were fighting the controls for 11 minutes.
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I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned but it certainly reminds me of the SarAvia Antonov crash out of Moscow earlier his year. Obviously icing wasn’t a factor in this instance but that doesn’t mean unreliable airspeed can be ruled out. |
Various news sites have shown images of an oil slick on the calm sea surface.
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I was an ear-witness unfortunately. I heard the Captain's last exchanges with the departure director and arrival controller before JT610 went silent and the controller declared loss of radar contact.
While I see everyone commenting that the weather was VMC, if one has flown to/from Jakarta the past few months since before the Asian Games, you'd know that the conditions are hardly clear skies due to the haze. I did remark to my FO that I suspect unreliable airspeed could be their issue and they should be climbing/holding and settle down and not come in for the approach hastily because of the visibility. This was all around 2325-2330UTC and until now I wish 2333UTC didn't occur. My thoughts and prayers to all affected. |
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