EASY_OUT
 

It's too early to say but, I have already been approached this morning from interested parties to start thinking about the new realities of EU-UK in the aviation market:

1-an old airline is ready to demand EASY out of their country and EU market.
2-some aviation investors, want to start ASAP with a new LLC.
3-1 big ATO already thinking about the consequences for their UK clients...

Just saying...

Interesting times ahead. Unfortunately the Rome treaty is basically the armageddon for BREXIT...and people are starting to think about using it!

Poor good old Britain.

Even with a local AOC and shareholding group?

Do you believe that the Germans had not thought about that? DLH has a major problem: they need Eurowings to be successful and they will play all the political power in their sleeves in order to have that.

Negotiations will be long and could turn any direction but, remember that EU is mostly run by Germans...

New AOC. Job done. What's the problem?

Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....

As the current way to set up an airline seems to involve contract crews on IOM registered, Bahamian-leased aircraft paid through a subsidiary in Lichtenstein, the whole thing is so obfuscated that no-one really knows who owns and runs what. Add in all the complicated agreements and conventions between nations and blocs and I don’t see much changing, really.

IAG, for one, seem to have seen this coming (or are fortuitous) as they are both in and out of the EU simultaneously...

I think it is not about the EEA, but the the ECAA (European Common Aviation Area).

Norway is part of the ECAA - the UK would need to negotiate a membership with the EU. And I see little incentive to let the UK in as European airlines have more to loose than to win from that. Norway is mainly in because otherwise SAS could not have been accommodated and nobody thought of Norwegian back then. All other ECAA members are really minor players and were let in because they pose no threat. Switzerland as a non-ECAA member has a bilateral with the EU, but this linked to other bilaterals that entail some of the very rights that led the Brits to brexit.

Fullwings IOM aircraft cannot be used for anything other than general aviation indeed if you know of any A/C with an 'M' registration being used commercially I would urge to bring that to the authorities.

I do not believe is going to be that easy...

I am sure they will make provisions against those kind of solutions. There are lots of players that will gain from restricting UK companies...

It was more of an invented example using as many tax havens and dodgy jurisdictions as I could think of rather than absolute reality. Although that comes close, sometimes...

Too right, but if our negotiators are any good such restrictions will work both ways. If you want open skies then so do we.

Where is the problem? You can't enjoy the benefits of a club and in the same time give back the membership and bad-mouth about the club. Yes they have to negotiate, and yes the negotiations will be tough because there is no future discount for the U.K. The voters decided, now they have to deal with it. **** happens....

The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.

As 40% of European air traffic is to/from the UK it's too important a market to disregard and arrangements will need to be made. How about pilot's licenses ? Back to the old British Licence perhaps ?

What about pilots working for Ryanair in EU bases with a British passport, will they need to apply for work permits ? An Irish passport is now much more valuable than a British one as the Irish have always had the right to live and work in the UK and can also do the same in any EU country.

Metro Man, is that O/D traffic or is it transfer?

In the first case, this number is not unlikely to shrink with less EU citizens taking up residency in the UK and travelling between their original country and their new home.

In the second case, this is likely to shrink as well as long as there is no open skies agreement. This will benefit the continental European airlines not insignificantly, so expect pressure from those on the EU to mind their position when negotiating the impending divorce.

Licenses are EASA based. EASA in NOT the EU.

The future negotiations are also a signal for other countries and their possible vote. I don't expect any discount for the UK. Tough negotiations ahead....

No need to worry to much
easyJet eyes new European operation if Britain flies solo

EASA is an agency of the European Union and may be unwilling to issue licences on the strength of a non member country's aviation authority. Perhaps the old CAA Licence will be reintroduced and pilots wanting an EASA Licence will need to do the tests in Europe.

Employing UK nationals would be less attractive for low costs with multiple bases across Europe as work permits would be needed. Any British based low cost operating intra European flights needs to start thinking about its future base of operations.

Britain has always had a trading relationship with the rest of Europe, it will be interesting to see what form the new one will take. Malaysia kicked Singapore out in 1965, on its own Singapore has done far better over the last 50 years.

Hmm. If it came to playing hardball, the UK could withdraw from the International Air Services Transit Agreement, as Canada did in 1988, and negotiate individual transit agreements with other countries. How inconvenient would it be for EU airlines to be denied overflight of UK airspace on the way to North America?

Anyway, no need to get over-excited - it's only the day after the vote! At least two years to go before actual exit! Lots of time for common sense to prevail. If common sense doesn't prevail - well, we'll know who our friends really are, and who our enemies are.

OldLurker, Your consideration seems to strengthen my point.

You are right that being disallowed overflight of the UK would be a major inconvenience for continental EU operators. However, the UK airlines would not be better off, were the EU to play "tit for tat" here and forbid UK companies from crossing EU airspace, would they? Then it will be either the northern route around Norway or the southern one around Portugal and Spain, should an UK aircraft wish to fly to or from Asia.

While this split is most regrettable in my eyes, it ought to be executed in a civilized manner with Gentlemen on both sides of the table. No need to wheel out perceived strenghts that may well turn into weaknesses upon closer examination. From both sides.

Does FR still hold the old Buzz AOC. What's involved in getting it resurrected if they needed to?

EZY will probably just do what Norwegian did: register in Ireland or any EU country that is willing and use that to benefit for intra EU rights.

Traffic to/from EU is mainly Loco for leisure and legacy to London and/or Oil. The latter will diminished post 2018.

Ryanair had full page adverts for remain,as we all know that union recognition is an important right within Eire,by law…oh we got round that one.As far as EASA goes they have made massive inroads into altimeter accuracy in RVSM ,whoopee bloody do!

"Community Air Carrier" is defined in EU regulations as being substantially owned and effectively controlled by EU nationals. Interpretation is left to each MS when issuing an AOC.

if the remaining MS's enforce these provisions there will not be an EU-Easy that is owned and controlled by UK-Easy. In some jurisdictions these O&C rules are more than 51% ownership (US is 75%) and require nationals in all senior management positions.

Swiss-Easy is 51% owned by Swiss nationals but 100% controlled by UK-Easy. The Swiss don't care, nor do the other 27, at the moment. I foresee difficult times for them as well.

I'd expect a strict interpretation here, as will the UK in registering any UK-Ryanair.

Edited to add: And I don't see an easy ride for IAG. IAG's airlines can be either EU or British, not both. And here it will be third countries determining if IB is EU, or BA is British. BA without traffic rights is just a domestic airline.

terrain safe posted.......

"uote: Originally Posted by Giggey http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....
Norway are in the European Economic Area. Which means free movement of people...."

I think he is talking about the airline, not the nation.

Pineridge - Norway is in the ECAA, meaning their airlines are community air carriers, because they are in the EEA. The EEA puts Norway into the 'free movement of people' camp.

Britain can do the same, join the EEA, and there could be status quo ante. But why Brexit if status quo on free movement is acceptable.

That would be the best joke ever. Leaving the EU because of the "dictatorship" in Brussels and then join the EEA where you are not on the table and have nothing to say about the rules. On the other side, why should they want the UK as a member? We can still fly to/from the UK, like UK airlines can do the same to the EU, but no UK airline can fly within the EU, but no EU airline wants to fly within the UK.

@OldLurker then you should plan your next holiday on the Falklands or look for a train to get to Spain :E

exDubai - So as a result of Britain deciding to leave the EU, easyJet will set up another European operation in a country that is not a member of the EU? I don't see the logic.

I also can not imagine us being hit with hefty EU tariffs. We have traded with Europe for centuries (give or take the odd war) as we have with rest of the world. It is in our interests as it is with Europe's to trade with the minimum of fuss. Open markets, well documented standards and clear legal systems are essential and that is what I signed up to in 1975. And that is what we can still achieve with our European friends and neighbours. And they want the same. But until yesterday, we did not have the right to say "No!" Now we can and we can also do the same with the rest of the world.

Will we lose jobs as a result of this outcome? Bloody hell yes. For a start our lovely bankers will have to take their casino/gambling operations to Frankurt (with the inherent risks of such undertakings) and the downsized City might eventually become an asset to our country. But short term, nothing will happen. The big rocks from the explosion will fall back to earth over the next few days and the dust will settle for a few months. Then we'll see what's left and set about working towards a prosperous future with our friends and neighbours.

Piltdown Man Don't now where they will setup an operation. But it's easy for them to use their swiss AOC because the agreements between Switzerland and the EU are in place.

For the rest, wait and see. Interesting times ahead....

Don't underestimate the clout that LH has inside the EU.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ml#post8419190

It might not be as easy ( like the pun ? ) as many would like.

Wow! The voting is all over, but still the BS scaremongering continues.

Firstly, nothing is going to change for some considerable time, between 2 and 5 years.

Secondly, plenty of other EU nations are likely to have similar referendums, so we won't be alone in our region, and in all probability this is a fatal blow for the EU and it'll break apart completely over then next 5-10 years.

Thirdly, not being in the EU doesn't prevent trade. The UK aren't pulling up drawbridges and the Europeans aren't likely to either. The EU might be indignant enough to try, but I suspect negotiations would not be with the EU but the individual Sovreign governments because of the paragraph above.

British aviation managed just fine before the EU, arguably a lot better in market share (especially manufacturing). All the doom mongering is some dark fantasy by malevolent mentalities.

Er, Ryanair? They also want to fly from the UK to EU countries other than Ireland.

Easy very much wants to continue their intra EU (except UK) and EU domestic flights.

Aluminium shufflers, please use Jet Blast.

Actually, exactly 2 years from invoking invoking article 50 of the treaty of lisbon. Yes, that timeframe can be extendet if both sides agree on that, however, dont expect the EU to show any inclination to that.

Exactly to prevent any similar referendums the EU is forced to play hardball to the extreme. And of course promise those parts of the UK that would rather be independent a fast track entry back in to the club.

WOW, it's funny to read how the whole of Europe will crawl to the UK and beg them to keep trading.
The EU is the main factor for stability in Europe.
HSBC just cut the predicted share price of Norwegian by 50 %.

You can't show the finger to the rest of Europe and think everything will be the same. It will not.

The EU has already reminded the UK today that they cannot sit back and relax until UK-wrecker Dave Cameron has been replaced in October. The EU will fast track this as much as they can now that the die is cast.

It took 10 years to organise EASA and it's still not complete, BREXIT will have no marked impact on us for at least 5 years..

Avenger, as long as the UK follows EASA rules, you are probably right. But as far as traffic rights are concerned they, and EU airlines such as FR, are up sh*t creek without a canoe.

At best they will get a EU-Swiss model. Unlimited 1st to 5ths, but no 7ths to 9ths. In other words, every FR flight UK - EU is going to have to originate in Ireland and vv.

I would think that the UK, should it want to, could be extremely awkward. How about telling EUROCONTROL route charges office that the route charges for airlines from EU countries that do not have a bilateral agreement with UK will be (name a figure) 20 times higher for transit through UK FIR/UIR. That would make transatlantic operations from the EU extremely expensive for those countries that wanted to be difficult.
This is not really the way to go but don't think that if particular countries are going to be awkward UK just has to sit on its hands and take it.

Ian W,
in that case, what would keep the EU from responding in kind? As I wrote in a previous post, for continental EU airlines, the other option would be to route around GB (or, should the centrifugal tendencies pick up in pace, around England only). For UK airlines, the option would be either to pay the likewise massively increased fees on much longer routes across the remaining EU or to select routes around Norway and Finland in the north or around Portugal, Spain and Italy in the south.

Now, would that have a bigger impact on European or on British aviation?