Aluminium S.

No, I'm not scaremongering. I've outline the challenges that the UK WILL experience as they move from a fully liberalised aviation market to a more traditional one - something Switzeland has with the EU.

If the UK does not wish to be in the free movement of people then, at best, they will get a liberalised, but not fully liberalised air service agreement with the EU. 1st to 5ths, at most. Switzerland, which has free movement, has just that. No 7ths, 8ths or 9ths. This means Easy and Ryanair are ****ed. They have few options, and even fewer if EU countries decide to play hardball.

Spain had already announced that Gibraltar is on the table. Elgin Marbles and Cypriot Soverign bases will soon join them.

But please, let's leave the politics to JB. It has happened and nothing is going to change that. It's time to face the consequences.

Trading conditions in the UK aviation market was already very tough and its been quite surprising that the airlines have been quite resilient to it and there hasn't been a major failure, albeit a couple of very near misses.

The threat from terrorism in Egypt and Turkey; two strong tourism destinations (the former an important winter destination for UK airlines) and the migrant crisis also affecting Greece is forcing UK tourists to the west of Europe. Airlines are moving their capacity, however there's only a finite amount these resorts can take and now there's a shortage of accommodation. As such its become a race to the bottom and massively important yields are diminished because there's now overcapacity. The summer season is what keeps many airlines afloat.

The UK government also float an uncompetitive APD, hidden as a 'green tax' which tries to suppress demand.

The industry needed this result like a hole in the head. Undoubtedly this will cost jobs and a further suppression of terms and conditions.

From Flying Headbutt.
Yes, and if my ageing memory is correct, airlines managed to fly from one country to another before the creation of the EU, and will probably continue to do so long after the EU has gone.

I don't for a second pretend to understand this all, but FR will continue to be an EU airline so will keep the rights they have now except for internal UK services. (If Scotland leaves the Union that may change). These could be negotiated, otherwise FR would need to set up a UK subsidiary.

The UK & Ireland have a common travel area which was negotiated prior to the UK joining the EU and this includes the right to work in both countries. Presumably this won't change. However it MAY mean that UK pilots could only be based in Ireland. Or be based in DUB but spend many nights away at EU airports. Of course, if FR can sponsor pilots for Irish citizenship problem solved. How long must you be resident in NI to be eligible for Irish citizenship.

U2 would require a subsidiary in any EU country.

Now it gets complicated. If FR/U2 wish to operate a common fleet could they wet lease aircraft as an when required from the UK & EU? This may be for individual sectors so that a plane & crew flies EDI - LGW for U2(UK) then LGW - AMS for U2(EU). Both would presumably have rights for AMS - EDI.

As other posts have said the danger is if someone wants to make a political point. However the LoCos must have political clout and common sense may prevail.

Just my thoughts.

Herod.

Before the creation of the EU British and Irish airlines did not fly intra European routes or domestics in Europe such as Ryanair Stn Edi or easyjet Ory Nce. That is what we are banging on about.

Its almost as staggering as the result of this travesty of "democracy" to read people saying Ryanair is in the same basket as EJ. I know logic and rationale have been suspended for the week but...

Let me try to explain in Senior Officer's terms...

Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.

Easyjet, on the other hand, is NOT going to be in the EU. It will therefore NOT be able to fly the - what? I guess - 90% of its routes that are EU to EU. Now I know maths and logic are not at a premium after today's vote but rest assured that this means EJ are quite likely to lose 90% of their network. How do you suppose that might affect EJ's business compared to Ryanair's?

Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!

Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!
24th Jun 2016 22:09

Thought we said this sort of stuff belonged in JB.

As it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.

As for MO'L's train set, of course he's pi88ed off - most of his growth the past 10 years or so and and a huge portion of his revenue comes from shifting the fruit pickers and warehouse staffers between the UK and Eastern European countries. Replacing this traffic will be far more difficult and problematic than EZ's transition to a Swiss, Dutch or German company.

How about Ryanair's UK-continental EU traffic, on 7th freedom rights? still allowed?

Irish citizenship requirements:
Who can become an Irish citizen?

It's a shame I don't meet any as I'd have snapped one up by now. :{

I have heard very little about the CTA in this whole big mess of a referendum. It's been around for a long time and I am not sure why all the talk about borders in NI are so loud. Seems like the DUP have just been waiting to build a wall of their own for ages and an excuse has finally come up.

The CTA could easily remain and GB/IE just continue as they do now, it makes no odds that one is in the EU or not, neither are in schengen and they could just introduce a shared visa system and shared monitoring of who comes in and when/where. Being islands there is only one of 2 countries someone is going to be able to move around before having to show a passport to get out of one of them. I don't see why there would be any need to end this agreement, just a slight enhancement on the external borders, based purely on convenience of the sheer numbers of people who cross between GB/IE every day, by land, sea and air it'd be pretty retrograde to impose major checks.

The current cross border set up of random checks on vehicles by land and sea and checking ID on flights should suffice. There would be barely any illegals coming in via Ireland anyway as they aren't in Schengen so anyone heading there needs a passport or visa anyway. The fact you can only get in by ship or plane from mainland Europe limits the numbers somewhat. In all probability the UK is, much to the annoyance of many a brexiteer, highly unlikely to impose anything other than slightly watered down free movement of people, again, purely for practical reasons. If the UK or EU wants to change that then both set to lose out, so it'd be pointless. The UK needs it's citizens to easily get access to Europe and in order to get that then we will have to accept the opposite.

Yes, there may be the odd work or residence permit to obtain for people working or settling after we actually leave, but that will probably just be there to know who came after the brexit date and therefore won't get access to free NHS or Benefits, for however long, for example. The talk of "controlling our borders" has many connotations and actually lowering the numbers physically coming may not be one of them as even the brexiteers know that'd be pretty self defeatist in a continent as closely linked as Europe. Restricting people once they are here is a different matter as by doing that they can indirectly lower the numbers by making it less attractive to come here. I hardly think we will become something like Belarus.

UK customs procedures will not likely change from what they are now, so there is no issue there as currently IE is the same as us anyway. Most countries, EU or not, follow pretty much the same customs rules anyway.

So basically all this vote may end up actually doing is taking the UK and Europe through years of market uncertainty and expensive, strung out ,late night talks in board rooms in Brussels all for nearly nothing. In the end we will more than likely end up in a situation not that different to what we have now, only millions of tiny trade deal details and other Pan European legislation will have been torn to shreds and then pretty much stuck back together again to refer to the UK as an external market. Benefits like EU roaming capping, various workers rights, the ability to truly freely work and live abroad, the safety of being able to use any EU embassy in the event of an emergency abroad or the ruling about not being able to charge men more than women on car insurance will vanish to our detriment. Doesn't make sense to me, but that's the way it's gone!

Oh, and Scotland might walk away from it all too!

:ok:

[QUOTEAs it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.[/QUOTE]

If EZ does move to a country in the EU, what will happen to their crew (pilots and cabin crew). To work in the EU one must have the legal right to do so and by exiting the EU all the UK nationals loose that right.
Personally I doubt EU will hand out work permits to UK nationals just because they used to be part of it.

Agreed....

I'm sure that there will be some Flight Crews who will be messed around.

Equally, there will be quite a few who will finally get the base the've been waiting for since forever - whether UK nationals currently stuck in the EU, or EU crews currently stuck in the UK - as crews are transferred around the network between the two operating units. It's amazing how Management can accomplish these transfers at times of crisis but can't do it at times of non-crisis.

The other option, of course, is for EZ service in the UK to be operated by ACMI arrangement with EZ aircraft from the EU based legal entity ( or the other way round, of course ) as schedules require. Absolutely certain that the UK would not object to this - the EU might need persuading.

That corporate message from Carolyn McCall must rank as one of the most wishful thinking CEO statements ever issued. Appealing to governments who have nothing to gain and a lot to lose to expedite their request that Britain remains part Of the single EU aviation market. It simply is not going to happen.


It was made very clear today by European leaders that Britain will not be allowed to cherry pick EU benefits. Britain is out of the EU and that includes the single EU aviation market.

To remain the right of EU-EU flights Easy Jet will have to get an AOC in the EU. ( Or use their Swiss AOC). EU Airline must not be owned and controlled by non-EU investores. The planes therefore will have to be registered in the respective EU-Country. To fly these planes by british nationals they must have the right to work and live in the EU. UK will be granted these rights only if they grant them to EU-Nationals as well. But this is one of, if not the crutial point, why the Brexeteers want to leave the EU. So if things really go bad, the big loosers will be the Easy Jet Crews with a british passport. Their planes will move, and they might not be allowed to follow them

totally correct................

The EU is well along the way to that already, without any help from the UK. What’s going to happen to Greece when the money runs out again? Spain with 24% unemployment (>50% for the young)? Italy which is split in two with deep structural problems, etc. Unless you’re Germany or France (which is displaying alarming symptoms of recent times) it must be quite worrying.

I didn’t vote to leave but I can understand the feelings of some of those that did. We see now the true colours of people like Juncker who are the unelected emperors of Europe. Things didn’t go exactly their way so they turn nasty (one suspects that they were like that all along when dealing with the upstart UK). Unlike the actual leaders of the individual EU countries, who are sad at the prospective loss and speak very diplomatically about it.

The EU started as the EEC, which was a collection of trade agreements and other things to facilitate this. I see an eventual return to this original state as, IMO, the economies, politics and aspirations of the remaining countries are just too disparate to remain glued together as a superstate in the long term.

FullWings:

One of the most reasoned posts I have seen on this forum so far. Ultimately this will change the whole shape of Europe, whether the politicians like it or not.

Where did you get that figure from?
Source?

And all routes between UK and EU countries other than Ireland. (7th freedom) Guessing more than 80% of their flights (??)

....and those of us flying UK registered aircraft with an EU license and EU passport? Same thing potentially as for the British pilots in EU I guess? Might get a letter over next few years getting the boot as they will hire British nationals to replace us. This will be such a mess on so many levels...

No way will that happen to you. Never. No chance.

No the Swiss AOC would only give them 3rd/4ths/5ths from/to/via Switzerland. AOCs in EU member states would be dependant on that countriy's interpretation of ownership and control. They could be flexible, but they could play hardball.

You really must be joking. The UK got special deals and rebates for 40 years, and when finally some member states said "enough is enough", a few other member states like Germany agreed to fund the UK rebate (commonly konw as the "Thatcher rebate") on their own to keep the UK in. And this "more more more special treatment" is exactly the reason that quite a few EU member states inofficially do not really shed a tear now and are on course to play hardball with the UK when it comes to exit negotiations (and probably will be very accommodating to the Scots joining the EU just to show Englad & Wales a finger).

As for moving EZY to Switzerland, this really is no solution as this only grants limited traffic rights and the whole EU-Swiss treaty is not secure - should the Swiss decide to pull just one of the various bilaterals with the EU (e.g. free movement), this will also automatically put an end to the aviation treaty.

Foreigners who have worked in a country MAY inherit grandfather rights (possibly through the Vienna Treaty, but I'm no expert, I've just been looking at the internet). However this may require having worked for a certain time. It could depend upon factors such as labour shortages and the negotiating / lobbying power of airlines and pilots associations, etc.

If there is a shortage of pilots no problem. Ireland, for example, might not want to issue work permits to foreigners if there are lots of unemployed Irish pilots. If there is a shortage of pilots work permits will very likely be forthcoming (Swissair had no trouble employing foreigners when they couldn't find natives). If there is a sudden downturn they could of course withdraw those permits. (Interesting where seniority lists come in then.)

As a matter of interest if UK pilots could only fly to/from UK but 50% of such flying was done by UK pilots (no reason of course why this should be case, it could be 90%) who would gain most, UK or non UK pilots?

I suspect that applying for dual citizenship is available might be an advantage. Its interesting but complicated area that's interests me. I am a UK citizen but I was born in Germany. However, unlike some countries such as the USA & Ireland being born in Germany does not automatically qualify one for citizenship. (I don't speak the language so that could be a problem.) The MP for the constituency north of Heathrow, I believe his name is Johnson, was born in the US & I hear has been trying to renounce his US citizenship to avoid taxes - along with some at Cathay Pacific. My sister married a Frenchman of East European descent who was a permanent resident (but not citizen) of Switzerland and now lives there with right of residence. I must check what citizenships they have.

Switzerland was not an EU state, so I don't know what their rules were. My understanding is that in EU members states the principle of Community preference applies, i.e. third country skilled labour can only be hired if labour demand cannot be met with workers from other EU member states.

Just to throw a scenario into the mixer:

Going back to the 1980s, prior to the liberalisation of the European aviation market, routes were dictated based on bilateral relations between different states. It allowed the big players, such as British Airways, to rule the roost in the UK airline market. It enabled, due to a lack of competition on key routes, to charge excessively high fares.

When the likes of easyJet and Ryanair started their hyper-aggressive expansions, national carriers became squeezed out on short haul and now struggle to compete and turn a profit. Passengers less interest in service and quality, instead just wanting to get from A to B in the shortest and cheapest way.

I work for a UK airline, which is usually the 2nd or 3rd player on most, if not all routes. Could we go back to a situation where certain governments could prevent more than 1-2 non-EU carriers to operate a certain route, to enhance the chances of their home carriers and as such protecting their jobs? By EU law, a state cannot 'sponsor' an airline - this would be an indirect way to help their residents.

Further afield, there are restrictions between flying to places like Rio de Janeiro and Moscow; the latter which easyJet at one time were able to operate at the expense of Virgin Atlantic, but only up to double daily. The former is an extremely expensive route in relative terms, as there is no open skies agreement, to my knowledge, between Brazil and the UK, as such preventing competition.

The losers are passengers, who will see an increase in fares and employees, as Ts & Cs will be further stretched.

From watching the European ministers press conference yesterday, my understanding was that, against common sense, the UK had to leave the EU and all of its associated institutions before we could start trade negotiations. The ramifications of that are that the European legal system and restrictions will apply against all British companies operating in Europe for the period between leaving the EU and completing negotiations. During this period Easyjet and British crew will suffer. The Easyjet operation in Milan will have to close for a period. Probably the re-opening will be under the 51% ownership rules. This would mean corporate taxes would be paid outside the UK. This will apply to many different companies I think the British treasury will have a large shortfall in revenue. Interest rates that the UK pays on its national debt are also going up as credit ratings are cut. The UK will not keep its place as the 5th Biggest economy in the World.

To be correct

We have not yet told them we are leaving - so EU rules still apply

Once we do there if a 2 year negotiation period - EU rules still apply

After 2 years we're out - if there is no finalised deal we're back to WTO rules BUT there may be certain grandfather rights with individual states (as there are apparently on fishing). Effectively we'd be rewinding the clock to the early 80's with the original EU members . God knows where we'd stand with later joiners such as Spain & Romania

Better ask Boris & Farage.............

Of course if Scotland were to become independent within the EU easyjet could just move north. probably lots of crew have some Scottish connection and could then claim dual nationality and work anywhere in the EU.

The trouble just now is that NO ONE know what the F**K is gong to happen. From the most powerful politician right down to the road sweeper.

scr1- You are correct.










One thing that we do know is that there is no system in Spain or Italy to issue large numbers of work permits and no incentive to create a system.
Even if they did want to create a work permit system (which they don't) it would take a very long time and then when created it would be very bureaucratic.


There is absolutely no possibility for British crew members based in those countries to stay.


On the other hand Britain will set up an efficient work permit system for those European workers currently in the UK because it was a British decision to leave the EU.

Many British airlines employ many European pilots. British Airways being a prime example. Should either side seek to play 'hard ball' there will be many casualties on both sides.

That is in nobody's best interests!

An absolute minimum of two years is available to find acceptable answers. This is day three, and the clock hasn't even started yet!

Well, they can stay while the UK is still in the EU, until the Article 50 process is complete.

Then ... Surely there must be some non-EU nationals working legally in Spain or Italy right now? In which case they must have some kind of work permit system?

it is definitely a risk primarily for EZY, since as has been said they will need a new EU based company that is 51% owned within the EU. I don't have access to the domicile breakdown of their existing shareholders, but if when the UK ones are added to the other non-EU shareholders it comes to more than 50% they have an issue.

TUI AG likewise have a similar issue, since 15% is a Russian shareholder (so non-EU) 6% are private investors (mostly the Directors & employees of former TUI Travel PLC so UK) then 76% are institutional shareholders (primarily coming from the TUI Travel PLC days so heavily UK biased)

Maybe Sir Stelios will take his large holding to a EU country.

ESQU isn't he from another EU country as well with good links to the UK - Dual citizen maybe?

He's from an EU country that is sure to be one of the next to leave!

"No way will that happen to you. Never. No chance."

want to bet???

Looking what happend with the share prize, he should act quickly.

An analysis here by IATA.

EZY in talks with several EU aviation authorities about relocating their company HQ to another EU state and obtaining an AOC according to Sky News.

http://news.sky.com/story/1720169/easyjet-opens-talks-over-post-brexit-hq-move

The FT says they are keeping the HQ at LTNFast FT