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-   -   Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/553569-air-asia-indonesia-lost-contact-surabaya-singapore.html)

MrSnuggles 2nd Jan 2015 13:04


We've measured updrafts of around 195kts and were only prevented from measuring higher values by equipment limitations. Those were over the Atlantic

It seems that even my imagination regarding tropical extremes, which was so far "out there" that a comment got mod-deleted
Actually, in Sweden, our "gust" record is 81 m/s (Tarfala, 20 december 1992) according to Väder Väderprognoser Klimat- & Vädertjänster i Sverige | SMHI - this would translate to approx 158 knots.

Sweden being far, very far, from the worst action windwise, I have no doubts that wind speeds up/down/however in the tropics would far exceed this humble record.

The current non-tornadic wind speed record has been set in Australia. The new record is 408 km/h from 1996, about 220 knots. This measurement was taken in regular wind conditions, not in any up/downdraft but as you see, hard winds are not unheard of in that region.

If wind conditions are of any interest to this investigation, we have to see. I'm just giving out a few numbers for those interested in what Mother Nature may throw at you in different places on this earth.

AirScotia 2nd Jan 2015 13:11


In this country a cause of death will not be stated on a death certificate unless an autopsy is done. Muslims prefer their departed to be buried quickly. Hint for foreigners who don't understand: They died from a plane crash.
It might be useful to rule out signs of burning / explosion / bomb? If there is evidence of drowning, that would suggest the aircraft impacted the water gently enough to keep passengers unconscious but alive. The bodies may hold clues that the plane broke up at altitude, which has implications in the search for the fuselage.

These are unpleasant thoughts, but I'm surprised the bodies have been returned to relatives so promptly. Not all the passengers were Muslim.

AirScotia 2nd Jan 2015 13:22

Is it possible the pilots were not properly informed about the weather en-route?

Air Asia QZ8501, Surat BMKG Ini Picu Jonan Marah * | -nasional- | Tempo.co

Google translation:


TEMPO.CO , Jakarta -Minister of Transportation Ignatius Jonan moved quickly after finding irregularities in procedure QZ8501 departure of Air Asia , which fell in the waters Karimata . He had rebuked a director of PT Indonesia Air Asia during a surprise visit to the office of a number of airline operations at Soekarno - Hatta Airport , Cengkareng , Tangerang , Banten , January 2, 2015 .

Jonan Minister questioned the attitude of Air Asia who do not hold a direct briefing for pilots happenings aviation weather information . The pilot was only receive the information document downloads , and do not take physical weather data documents . The reason the AirAsia , bring documents that old school weather .

Jonas has previously received a letter from the Head of the Meteorology , Climatology and Geophysics ( BMKG ) Andi Eka Sakya dated December 31, 2014. This letter informed him that Air Asia QZ8501 late taking weather data . " From the log book at Juanda BMKG Station , Surabaya , it was found that the new take Air Asia weather information material at 07.00 pm after the impact of lost contact QZ8501 and not before take off . " ( Read : Evidence - AirAsia - QZ8501 - Lax - It - Make -Johan - Upset )

Letter from BMKG is addressed to the Minister of Transport Ignatius Jonan , limited follow-up meeting on 29 December, on the incidence of Air Asia . This meeting was chaired by the President of Joko Widodo and attended among others by the Minister of Transportation Ignatius Jonan ; Minister of Research , Technology , and Higher Education Muhammad Nasir ; Head of the National Search and Rescue Agency Marshal F.H.B. Soelistyo ; TNI Commander General Moeldoko ; as well as National Police Chief Gen. Sutarman .

Head of Data and Information BMKG Juanda , Bambang Setiajid , confirmed information that Air Asia QZ8501 not ask weather briefing . Though BMKG data showed growth cumulonimbus cloud remarkable since 02.00 .

Suastiastu 2nd Jan 2015 13:25

Cause of death
 
"It might be useful ..."
Maybe useful to you and a sense of curiosity shared by tabloids- but not to families who want to bury their dead, preferably in tact.
similar happened here after the bombing which killed 202 - westerners wanted to do more forensics locals wanted to clean up and bury their dead and spiritually cleanse the area.

cee cee 2nd Jan 2015 13:26


Originally Posted by Suastiastu
Muslims prefer their departed to be buried quickly.

I would suggest that it is not just the Muslims. Bodies don't keep well in the weather there (hot and damp). That would bring about a culture of quick burials.


Originally Posted by AirScotia
The bodies may hold clues that the plane broke up at altitude, which has implications in the search for the fuselage.

The news report interviewed someone from the hospital who said that the bodies recovered so far were in one piece, only bloated from being in the water. Also, the bodies recovered by the US ship today were reported to be more than 30 miles (confirmed was not kilometres) (source BBC news) away from the other bodies, and some were still strapped to their seats. That seems to suggest a possible mid-air breakup.

Shandy52 2nd Jan 2015 13:30

Strait Times reports:PANGKALAN BUN/JAKARTA - An Indonesian Navy vessel detected an object suspected to be the tail of AirAsia flight QZ8501 on Friday, Metro TV reported.

If you will excuse a query from a non-pilot... Is it at all likely, if the tail has been found separately from the fuselage, that the separation occurred at altitude? And could such a separation go some way towards explaining the aircraft's behaviour?

AirScotia 2nd Jan 2015 13:32

@cee cee


The news report interviewed someone from the hospital who said that the bodies recovered so far were in one piece, only bloated from being in the water. Also, the bodies recovered by the US ship today were reported to be 30 miles (or was it kilometres) away from the other bodies, and some were still strapped to their seats. That seems to suggest a possible mid-air breakup.
Presumably a spread of bodies (I've read 5km somewhere, so this is yet another unclear area), could be caused by sea currents over the course of five-six days? So not necessarily down to the bodies being released from the airframe at height.

AirScotia 2nd Jan 2015 13:36

@Shandy52


If you will excuse a query from a non-pilot... Is it at all likely, if the tail has been found separately from the fuselage, that the separation occurred at altitude? And could such a separation go some way towards explaining the aircraft's behaviour?
The tail of AF447 was also found floating on its own, but the plane had been completely intact when it hit the water. So this doesn't necessarily suggest separation at altitude.

ManaAdaSystem 2nd Jan 2015 13:39


it was found that the new take Air Asia weather information material at 07.00 pm after the impact of lost contact QZ8501 and not before take off
Does this say what I think it says?
Somebody picked up a weather breifing after the accident to make it look like the pilots dis this before the flight?
They departed without any weather information?

MELT 2nd Jan 2015 13:43

Not all ELTs are the same
 
Mr Snuggles

Just to add to what you have said. You are correct that ELTs are not 100% reliable, however it is important to distinguish between the different types of ELTs. The old 121.5/243Mhz ELTs suffered poor reliability, but the newer 406MHz ELTs have, in the main, proved extremely reliable.

I am not aware of any civil airliner installed with an AF (Automatic Fixed) 406MHz ELT that crashed on land, where the ELT was not activated. What can though happen in a crash is that the antenna become detached from the beacon. This has happened in particular in helicopter crashes and is one of the reasons at least two ELT manufacturers build their ELTs with back-up antenna. Before anyone mentions the case of the Air Inter Airbus A320 Mont St Odile crash, this aircraft did not have an AF ELT, or for that matter any other ELT installed.

Of course as already mentioned once the antenna of an ELT is submerged, then whilst the ELT will still function, the antenna will obviously not be able to send a transmittable signal to the satellite. I doubt a ditched and intact airliner would sink within the 50 seconds before first transmission of a distress signal after activation. Then again I doubt an airliner could successfully ditch in the state of seas being discussed here.

island_airphoto 2nd Jan 2015 13:45

Does the A320 radar do vertical mode?
http://cdn.avweb.com/media/newspics/...tical_scan.jpg

Sop_Monkey 2nd Jan 2015 13:51

Mana

Don't think lack of current en route WX is worth getting too excited over. If you are near the ITCZ, you can expect rough WX, sig met or no sig met.

One should expect the worst WX and hope for the best WX, in-spite of any en route forecast.

ekw 2nd Jan 2015 13:52

The Java Straits have been churning like a washing machine the past few days so this could also explain dispersal of bodies and floating debris.

Autopsies are absolutely needed as part of the crash investigation but there is nothing to stop bodies being released quickly for burial after the State Pathologist has certified cause of death and noted types of trauma visible on the body.

AirScotia 2nd Jan 2015 13:53

So it's beginning to seem that AirAsia had no permit to fly SUB - SIN on Sundays, only Mon, Tues, Thurs, Sat. The 28th December flight was the first Sunday flight for the carrier, and it was unlicensed.

What are the implications of this for flight support arrangements?

Izin Rute AirAsia Surabaya-Singapura Dibekukan - Kompas.com

Google translation:


JAKARTA , KOMPAS.com - The Ministry of Transport (MoT ) suspended license AirAsia fly Surabaya - Singapore route . Freezing is valid since 2 January 2015. The provision of these sanctions related to violations of operational time AirAsia Surabaya - Singapore route .

By virtue of a DGCA No. AU.008 / 30/6 / DRJU.DAU - 2014 dated October 24, 2014 regarding permission Foreign Flight Period Winter 2014/2015 , Surabaya - Singapore route given to Indonesia AirAsia is Monday, Tuesday , Thursday and Saturday .

Meanwhile , unknown turns AirAsia also opens the route service on Sunday ( 12/28/2014 ) . QZ8501 passenger aircraft and 7 crew 155 people have departed from Surabaya to Singapore on the day . Shortly after takeoff , the aircraft is believed to fall around the Gulf Karimata , Central Kalimantan .

" So this is the temporary suspension of the license AirAsia flights Surabaya - Singapore route , " said Head of Public Communication Ministry of Transportation JA Batara in his official statement , Jakarta , Friday ( 02/01/2015 ) .

This freezing sanctions contained in the letter of the Director General of Civil Aviation No. AU . 008 / 1 / 1DRJU - DAU -2015 by January 2, 2015. The Ministry of Transportation will review the sanctions have completed the National Transportation Safety Committee investigation results related incidents AirAsia QZ fall of 8501 .

" While the handling of passengers who have had the AirAsia flight tickets Surabaya - Singapore pp (roundtrip ) to be redirected to another flight in accordance with , " said Barata .

Jet Jockey A4 2nd Jan 2015 13:54

@ ATC Watcher and Ian W...
 
Sorry for the slight detour off thread but since they brought up the subject of Baro Altitude versus GPS Altitude I'm curious...

Besides the fact the Earth is not perfectly round thus rendering wrong GPS altitudes information (now taken care of by software adjustments), isn't one of the major problems for using GPS altitude the fact that we fly a constant pressure wave/altitude as we set 29.92/1013 on our altimeters and this pressure wave is not at a constant altitude above the Earth's surface?

When I look at our GPS altitude in our FMS, sometimes it is 1000 feet if not more off the Baro altitude and sometimes it is really close but I have never seen them match each other.

Could/can they even have a solution to solve this problem?

Also since aircraft performance is based on a "standard pressure" and if we now decide to switch to GPS altitude and now fly a "true" altitude above the Earth's surface how would that affect the aircraft's performance because now instead of being at a constant FL410 pressure altitude you might be at a 42,300 feet altitude?

ManaAdaSystem 2nd Jan 2015 14:04


Mana

Don't think lack of current en route WX is worth getting too excited over. If you are near the ITCZ, you can expect rough WX, sig met or no sig met.

One should expect the worst WX and hope for the best WX, in-spite of any en route forecast.
I agree, but if it's correct, it does suggest AirAsia tried to cover up the fact that they left without the required weather briefing.
That says something about their corporate culture?

training wheels 2nd Jan 2015 14:13


Originally Posted by Suastiastu (Post 8807168)
"It might be useful ..."
Maybe useful to you and a sense of curiosity shared by tabloids- but not to families who want to bury their dead, preferably in tact.

Yes, the same goes for motor accident victims as well. Some are even buried on the same day they died.

A TV news reporter reported that the first body found and buried had severe head injuries to the extent that she was not recognizable and that identification had to be done by other means. I noticed also that the body was buried in a wooden coffin which is not normal for a Muslim burial. Muslims are usually washed first, then wrapped in white cloth and buried with only the cloth that they were covered with. They are placed on their side with their face facing towards Mecca.

For a Muslim burial to take place with the use of a coffin would suggest that the above standard practice was not possible for reasons you can deduce.

(apologies for the morbid description)

Sop_Monkey 2nd Jan 2015 14:20

Mana

In defense of the pilots, who are unable to defend themselves, all required up to date WX may have been downloaded on ACARS. This of course would be able to be verified. What about Volmet?

Is it still necessary to keep "knocking down a good chuck of the rain forest" every flight that is carried out?

training wheels 2nd Jan 2015 14:23


Originally Posted by AirScotia (Post 8807164)
Is it possible the pilots were not properly informed about the weather en-route?

Head of Data and Information BMKG Juanda , Bambang Setiajid , confirmed information that Air Asia QZ8501 not ask weather briefing . Though BMKG data showed growth cumulonimbus cloud remarkable since 02.00 .

I used to operate an early morning flight out of Surabaya, where scheduled departure time for us was 0600 local. My reporting time at flight operations was 0500 and we often had to wait until 0530 for the weather forecasts to come through from the briefing office because they were not adequately staffed for the early morning departures. Although this is no excuse if they did infact depart without a weather forecast, it does however highlight the difficulties that crews face when operating in this part of the world.

BG47 2nd Jan 2015 14:29

@Airscotia it’s also interesting that the pax for that flight were contacted to show up 2 hours earlier then scheduled. 23 pax missed this flight because they did not check their phone/email (thankfully).

So were the pilots scheduled for this flight? or were they called out/reserve pilots?


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