Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
 

There are reports this morning that an Indonesia Air Asia A320 has lost contact enroute from Surabaya to Singapore QZ 8501. Let's hope for the best for crew and passengers.

Still very skimpy information:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News...e-missing.html

From RT (Russia Today)

Air Asia flight number QZ8501, bound from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore, has reportedly lost control with air traffic control. The missing flight is an Airbus A320-200 with 155 people on board, Reuters reports.
The plane lost contact with the Jakarta air traffic control on Sunday, Indonesian media said, citing a Transport Ministry official Hadi Mustofa.

Mustofa said the contact was lost at 6:17am local time (23:17 GMT) after the crew asked for an unusual route.

Registration PK-AXC with 138 adults, 16 minors and 1 infant. 7 crew including engineer onboard.

Location where contact was lost
 

Mickjoebill

If that RT report was to be remotely accurate, the fact the plane went missing after a request for an unusual route will have the media jumping to conclusions, that's for sure :(

Also, that's been missing for a hell of a long time. That is out of the A320s range is it not, even if it was filled to the brim.

The BBC are reporting the same, but not explaining what 'unusual route' actually means.

The area over, and south of Singapore (aka Indonesia) is currently on the SIGWX chart as having ISOL CB FL450 - XXX.

"Unusual Routing" could be "deviate off course to avoid weather".

Just a speculation.

AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control at 07:24hrs this morning.

At the present time we unfortunately have no further information regarding the status of the passengers and crew members on board, but we will keep all parties informed as more information becomes available.

The aircraft was an Airbus A320-200 with the registration number PK-AXC.

At this time, search and rescue operations are in progress and AirAsia is cooperating fully and assisting the rescue service.


AirAsia has established an Emergency Call Centre that is available for family or friends of those who may have been on board the aircraft. The number is: +622129850801.

AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, AirAsia | Cheap flights to Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, Siem Reap, Taipei | Book online now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AirAsia/s...48915429830656

It is a 2 hour flight, so 5+ hours overdue...

Lots of thunderstorm activity...

Hope for the best.

Another Malaysian airline....

PK-AXC - Indonesia AirAsia - Aircraft info and flight history - Flightradar24

http://i.imgur.com/i7yheZ8.jpg

Unconfirmed pax:
149 Indonesians, 3 Koreans, 1 Singaporean, 1 Briton, 1 Malaysian.


Interesting side note - Air Asia have greyed out all logos on social media in the last few minutes.

According to the New Straits Times, its last known co-ordinates were at 3 09'15" S, 111 28'21 E. That would put it about five miles offshore, some 25 nm SW of Pangkalanbuun in Borneo.

Looks like they were diverting left then right just before RAFIS on M635

http://i.imgur.com/1lw0wW2.jpg

Nothing significant visible in the weather radar pic from changi

Faa issued emergency AD on aircraft Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-51 is sent to owners and operators of Airbus Model A318, A319, A320, and A321 series airplanes. AD #:
2014-25-51. An occurrence was reported where an Airbus A321 aeroplane encountered a blockage of two Angle of Attack (AoA) probes during climb, leading to activation of the Alpha Protection (Alpha Prot) while the Mach number increased. The flightcrew managed to regain full control and the flight landed uneventfully.

Large TS return in vicinity of the last position that is shown on the above post

See BOM Full Disk Satellite image here:

Recent Satellite Images

Wssr20 wsss 280249
wsjc sigmet 1 valid 280300/280700 wsss-
wsjc singapore fir embd ts obs entire fir nc=

https://www.facebook.com/RadarBox24/...type=1&fref=nf

Very harrowing watching the TV link.

The A/C went missing just after dawn local time, so SAR resources have maximum daylight.

as you know, most big thunderstorms are in need of energy from the sun and form in the afternoon...BUT

if you have a thunderstorm in the early AM it may have quite a bit of energy. A HUGE AMOUNT of energy.

wondering if ELT signals have been received by SAR

Unconfirmed report: down in sea
 

An unconfirmed report from Jakarta says that the aircraft is down in the sea near Belitung island.

http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014...Belitung.Timur

Indonesian FIR
 

But Singapore has dispatched two C-130s for SAR. I am confident they are much more capable than their Indonesian counterparts.

http://www.reddit.com/live/u5bkiqteljl4

My goodness the radar pic is chilling.

https://twitter.com/thatjohn/status/...653889/photo/1

From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.

See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.

An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777.

A thunderstorm like that you can go from FL320 to FL 360 very quickly .

Updated Statement by Air Asia

Non-facebook link of statement

@SATCO

You can't trust the ADS-B data from flight trackers.

Local ATC reported that due to weather, QZ8501 requested to deviate left of the M635 airway and climb from FL320 to FL380.

There's good civilian and military radar coverage in the area as there's a regional airport at Belitung Island.

Local news reports saying that the last communication with ATC was a request to climb to FL340.

Numerous, frequent even, evening thunderstorms during my 20 years in the tropics.

Wrt the suggestion that they asked to climb in order to avoid 'clouds'.

Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm.

Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible.

Given that turbulence penetration speed for the A320 is 275kias, giving a TAS at FL340 of about 460kts, and the forecast winds were WSW, if that 360kt GS is accurate it is way too slow.

"Ichiban:

From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.

See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.

An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777."

Yeah a fair bit slower than expected.. but still not impossible when you consider that they may have been hitting best rate of climb to try and clear the weather and possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.

Link to the Load and Trim sheet, found on Reddit.

http://jansaviation.com/files/QZ8501-LoadTrim.pdf

Ichiban,

If the aircraft was in fact climbing the LOWER airspeed would make sense to some extent. It's also possible the pilot reduced speed due to expected turbulence in CB. Finally if you have reduced IAS and you are climbing you would have a reduced margin above the stall in clean configuration. This can be a trap in extreme turbulence where IAS fluctuates wildly.

Now I am not speculating at all just answering Ichiban,s question about the reduced speed.

Groggy

From Indonesia National SAR official briefing:

(all times local)

05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya

06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380

06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar

06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.

06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.

07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)

07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)

07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)

Shades of MAS370....that INCERFA would have been declared by 06:26 in any western country :rolleyes:

OLD KING C
 

"Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm."

Very well said, mate!

You simply cannot out climb them, I've seen some with tops at FL500 on the tropics.
Secondly you put the acft very close to the flight envelope limits if you climb 2,000 or more above the optimum, so any turbulence will put you on a high or slow speed stall. It's a very marginal situation.
Best way to avoid weather: steer away!