But ELT might take up to 50 seconds to transmit... and will not successfully transmit if submerged at depth.

(Assuming the ELT survived the crash and the antennas weren't sheared off).

^^^^ Not ours. We have the ELT that comes with the aircraft which is activated by 'g' force and a model onboard the aircraft that will only activate in water if the actual beacon is removed from the latches in the aircraft (designed to take in the life raft). We have already established after MH370 that transmission of the ELT signal is extremely limited if the wreckage has sunk in the water.

This is shaping up as an Air France Part II.

ELT signal
 

Activates in water however signals attenuate rapidly in said same water.
One positive factor (if there is such a thing in this case) is that water depths are "generally" quite shallow in all of that area.
But then, an aircraft entering the water vertically at high velocity, or most of that aircraft, might well end up buried in mud because of the shallowness of the water.

The winds
 

I had a look at the wind block on EK409's OFP. The flight preceding 8501. Forecast for RAFIS:

FL350 101/17
FL380 103/20

Hence he was very slow indeed.

Use caution ...
 

Carjockey

I would be very cautious about any unofficial, unverified and also, probably, most verified reports of "findings".
This area has a really poor record of such findings turning out to be completely bogus (refer Adam Air incident) or a burned out bus with four families living in it.
The SAR people are probably the best source, but I think they were the ones who got it wrong with Adam Air

4pm local they finally accept Singapore SAR assets.

GS of UAE409 was 503kts on the radar picture. This is a tailwind component of about 40-50 kts.

353kts as a GS would be about 300kts TAS at FL363, certainly less than minimum clean IAS. But then it is an Airbus.

Indonesia has sophisticated surveillance equipment in the area, including three specially modified B737s. The last known position is also just 35nm from an Indonesian Navy base which apparently had the plane on its radar.

Three miles, errr No, tailwind of 20 kts or so.

You're the second Aussie that's come up with this. Call up NAIPS and check out the jet streams in the area! :=

I don't understand this headwind issue..that's not a problem ever.. the tailwind could be but not the headwind , even in cruise or in climbing.:confused:

Airbus statement:

Statement | Airbus, a leading aircraft manufacturer

I cannot really see what relevance the Wind Charts have if you are trying to establish GS / IAS / TAS relationships near CBs?

Almost by definition, the CB will significantly alter the local W/V, and in severe cases by 100K or more.

@WingNut60

Thanks for your message.

FYI, I've spent over 20 years in SE Asia and I have a good understanding of the nature of the place in which I live...

I have not formed and nor have I stated any opinion on this forum regarding the fate of this flight, I have simply posted links which may, or may not, be relevant.

Like everyone else here, I just want to know and understand exactly what happened to this flight.

Usual rubbish being posted. Usual rubbish on the media. Nothing wrong with educated speculation, but not nonsense like "requested climb from FL320 to FL380".

The 3 likely possibilities seem to be; 1 catastrophic structural failure caused by an on-board explosion, 2 loss of control due to mishandling following pitot/AOA/ static source icing and subsequent Unreliable Speed Indication, or 3 pilot suicide, Tiger-Airways/Egyptair/etc style. None of these events would cause the crew to immediately issue a Mayday; that would not be a priority.

Presumably these a/c were not fitted with ACARS. All will be revealed if the FDR/CVR are recovered intact.

How deep is the water where the a/c presumably went down?

I also wonder just how much (if any) training for high altitude upsets has been given to the pilots in this particular carrier. It has been a major area for study and sim practice in many Western airlines. Airbus has put much information out to airline safety departments following the reports of the AF447 accident.

I also wonder how experienced the pilots were. PTF FO's are all too common in the Far East, where flying conditions can be very challenging. And how much additional gas was the aircraft carrying? Fuel policy issues can come into play too when it comes to route deviations.

But climbing 6,000 is no recognised way to deal with CB's. The A320 with the given passenger load would not have had the legs to climb straight to FL380. Just refer to the QRH for the type. FL360 maybe, but lateral deviations are the standard means of avoiding nasty weather.

...here's a depth chart for the Sunda Shelf...you can see the area in question is quite shallow...

http://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/655569sunda.png

Reminds me of the Swiftair MD83 earlier this year. Wrong interpretation of weather radar or poor judgement about what action to take to avoid massive CBs.

@RoyHudd

Do you have an issue with factual information given by official sources? :confused:

Says the armchair investigator who's apparently already identified "The 3 key possibilities" ......

A case of do as I say but not as I do RoyHudd ? :E

On a more serious note. Please guys, lets not turn this one into a rampant MH370 thread full of whacky armchair theories .... how about just allowing the good old fashioned SAR and subsequent investigation by to take its course.

All the armchair theories here do is to feed the devil that is the media .... and I don't think any of us want that !

proline, the final report is not even issued and you know the cause of Swiftair ?
It is way too early to make assumptions.

The average depth of the Java Sea is just 46 metres. Wreckage of an A320 would be surely be easily spotted in this sea by now?
I'm amazed, that with the huge population in this region, both working on the water and on land, that reports of people seeing an aircraft coming down haven't started to surface? Vast numbers of Indonesians have mobile (cell) phones.

Latest report from the Malysian Insider:

QZ8501 believed crashed near Belitung, boats despatched, says Indonesian SAR - The Malaysian Insider

There's low visibility (< 3 miles at times) in the area presently.

There have been unconfirmed reports of fishermen hearing noises & spotting debris.

BBC states
"British national was on board missing AirAsia flight QZ8501 and next of kin have been informed, says UK Foreign Office."
This does not match the previously published pax list.

Dual Nationality
 

pretty common in this part of the world to have dual Indonesian/British or maybe other British dual national

british national
 

one of the first posts in this thread say one missing briton amongst the passengers - the one french national is believed to be the f/off

not all rubbish on here thankfully
the wx info that has been posted here has been a revelation that of the extreme TS activity and i am interested in the winter ITCZ

Reports now say the Captain has over 20,500 total time, with 6,100 hours with AirAsia. This is different from earlier information from AirAsia.

Updated info from Indonesian National SAR:

06:12 local time: QZ8501 in contact with Jakarta center at FL320 and requested deviation left from M635 and climb to FL380.

ATC approved left deviation, but the climb to FL380 had not been approved, pending conflicting traffic.

FL320 is way below "Econ Cruise FL" IMHO... there was a reason for FL320 e.g. Flt Planning (Level CAP), head/tailwind, MEL. The FL380 request "for weather" might even have been "tactical" ;) So I see not issue with that request, and indeed have made it myself for genuine weather reasons.

"Outclimbing a CB", as stated, is not usually a great idea - however, climbing may well make navigating a multitude of CBs easier. The PF on AF447 also had a repeated desire to "climb" for weather avoidance...

Air France repeat? - blocked pitots (ice) during attempted climb above Cb. Static pressure falls with altitude causing over reading airspeed. Raise nose to contain erroneous speed indication = stall hence the slow reported groundspeed.
Actions: -
1. Ignore speed - press EMER CANC to kill the o/speed warning noise.
2. Fly power / attitude - Best is 2 degrees nose up and 78% N1 or my favorite Thrust idle and level attitude or just below and decent. Going for 5 degrees nose up and climb power iaw QRH won't work that high.
3. Turn off all ADRs to bring up BUSS (Back-up speed scale) if fitted on PFD to show AoA.
4. Do nothing else until clear of weather.
5. Companies have been hammering unreliable airspeed to death (no pun intended) in every sim since Air France.

If your pure desire is to "see" AoA, what is wrong with just flying a bit above Alpha Prot? Which IMHO is just an AoA gauge?

AviationSafety ‏@AviationSafety
#QZ5801 dispatch info shows it took off with 8296 kgs of fuel; minimum sector fuel is 7725 kgs; planned fuel consumtion: 5211 kgs.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B57_gApCAAAVKLG.jpg:large

Jockster suggests: "Air France repeat? - blocked pitots (ice) ..."

Can someone say whether the pitot tube heater would be automatic or manual? The idea that the lessons of AF447 have not been learned seems ludicrous.

There's a correction from AirAsia: http://on.fb.me/1vjWooS

"AirAsia Indonesia would like to issue a correction on the nationality breakdown of passenger and crew on board QZ8501 as follows:

Nationalities of passengers:
1 Singapore
1 Malaysia
3 South Korea
1 United Kingdom
149 Indonesia

Nationalities of crew:
1 France
6 Indonesia

AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com."

It's now a few minutes past sunset over the area and major SAR activities will be winding down until tomorrow morning, 6am local time (23:00Z, 6pm EST).

National SAR has updated the aircraft's last known position as: 3°36'31.0"S 109°41'46.0"E. See Google Maps.

The are gearing up for an initial search which may last up to one week, at which time they will re-assess the situation.

Air and sea assets from Malaysia and Singapore will also be arriving overnight to take part in the search starting tomorrow. Australia has also offered assistance.

Local fishermen are also helping to search, and a Susi Air aircraft chartered by one of the families.

no more daylight 19.20 local time
 

13 hours since a/c missing and its dark now there - nothing found is all we know

plenty of today in daylight to try and find some wreckage but has the weather been too bad for a decent SAR?

The weather has been mixed.

Near Belitung Island (the nearest "big" island) the weather was relatively good (light rain). But closer to the last known point, there has been lower visibility, with 3+ meter swells in light thunderstorms which added to the difficulties.

There might be some air assets which may be able to continue to search tonight, but for the most part they will have to wait until tomorrow to re-start.

Seems to be a sad event indeed.

Haven't read all the posts but trying to out climb a thunderstorm for e.g., is foolish in the extreme due to reduced G protection/coffin corner, as stated in earlier posts. Contemplating doing so is a sure sign of inexperience and or poor training. We must not forget, that a sudden ascending air mass (parcel of air) would be a lot warmer than ambient, making the safety margins even narrower still, for a given altitude. "Optimum altitude" may even be too great for adequate G protection in these conditions. Aircraft are very strong and will most likely hold together provided an attitude is maintained and the A/S is keep within the margins required in an extreme situation. Therefore a lower altitude is more preferable, as a stall/departure will have a very high chance of resulting in in flight break up or non recovery.

After MH370 was lost a certain airline boasted in their in-flight reading material "we don't lose aircraft" or words to that effect. Even more dangerous.

its been mentioned before an ELT will not be picked up if submerged or not work if not G activated/damaged -

it seems the current ELT design and format is certainly not helping with the recent losses

too early in the stage for a sub to pick up an underwater ELT transmission unless there is one around the area already