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Originally Posted by WhisprSYD
possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.
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Air Asia says missing jet asked to 'deviate' due to weather - Channel NewsAsia
JAKARTA: Air Asia said the pilot of flight QZ8501 that went missing between Indonesia and Singapore early Sunday (Dec 28) had requested "deviation" from the its flight plan because of bad weather. "The aircraft ... was requesting deviation due to enroute weather," the Malaysia-based carrier said in a statement posted on its Facebook page. "Communication with the aircraft was lost while it was still under the control of the Indonesian Air Traffic Control (ATC)." UPDATED STATEMENT FROM AIRASIA AT 1.23PM: "AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control at 7.24 (Surabaya LT) this morning. The flight took off from Juanda International Airport in Surabaya at 5.35am 90"The aircraft was an Airbus A320-200 with the registration number PK-AXC. There were two pilots, four flight attendants and one engineer on board.The captain in command had a total of 6,100 flying hours and the first officer a total of 2,275 flying hours "There were 155 passengers on board, with 138 adults, 16 children and 1 infant. Also on board were 2 pilots and 5 cabin crew. "Nationalities of passengers and crew onboard are as below: 1 Singapore 1 Malaysia 1 France 3 South Korean 156 Indonesia "At this time, search and rescue operations are being conducted under the guidance of The Indonesia of Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). AirAsia Indonesia is cooperating fully and assisting the investigation in every possible way. "The aircraft was on the submitted flight plan route and was requesting deviation due to enroute weather before communication with the aircraft was lost while it was still under the control of the Indonesian Air Traffic Control (ATC). "The aircraft had undergone its last scheduled maintenance on 16 November 2014. AirAsia has established an Emergency Call Centre that is available for family or friends of those who may have been on board the aircraft. The number is: +622129850801. "AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com." - AFP/CNA/by |
Originally Posted by Old King Coal
Wrt the suggestion that they asked to climb in order to avoid 'clouds'.
Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm. Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible. I've flown with many F/Os who suggest 'we' climb to avoid a CB... That's not happening on my flight! A good speed margin is vital in severe/extreme turbulence! |
Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time. |
According to the Jakarta Post...
National Search and Rescue Agency spokesman now giving the crash site as 3 degrees 22'46" S, 108 degrees 50' 07" E, or about 145 km E of Belitung.
AirAsia plane downed in Belitung waters: Reports | The Jakarta Post |
Originally Posted by CISTRS
(Post 8799194)
Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time. |
Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY. And not before time. |
Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY. And not before time. |
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Does Indonesia Air Asia use "Pay to Fly" First Officers to crew their aircraft?
For those unfamiliar: Pay to fly means that the second in command aboard a jetliner PAYS between 20.000 and 50.000. $ to have the "priveledge" to fly as a copilot onboard commercial passenger and cargo flights. Some Asian companies now even do "pay to upgrade" where you BUY your Captain position... Maybe CNN should report on THAT...:ugh: |
talking about AF and freezing pitoTT tubes Climbing (apparently 4k plus above planned), slow (353 is ~ M0.6 at 36k ignoring wind), and end up in the ocean. |
Load and trim sheet shows 1258 kg. It's quite low for Pax=158.
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Originally Posted by _Phoenix_
(Post 8799227)
Load and trim sheet shows 1258 kg. It's quite low for Pax=158.
http://i.imgur.com/lRunM4K.jpg Air Asia passengers often have more carryon than checked in baggage. |
looking at the radar plot available on a previous page, it appears he was about mid-flight...it never ceased to amaze me in my time on the 'Bus or Boeing, how many people were keen to climb high into thin air in an attempt to be clear of weather...:ugh:
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Air Asia passengers often have more carryon than checked in baggage. |
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Severe turbulence inducing slow speed stall? Loss of spatial awareness resulting in excessive control inputs and possible loss of a control surface? No further communication due to extreme stress and physical forces?
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formulaben
Pray tell, how would this "REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY" work during and after an inflight breakup? And many lives would this save again? Indirectly (culturally) the system would 'save' lives in the future by identifying the threats and errors that contributed - that's if they were appropriately managed. (and to tack on my two cents - if an airline's objectives focussed on managing those threats by 'clear and true' implementation of a safety oriented culture that isn't bounced by commercial priority) |
I'm not sure that real time would greatly increase safety. The only advantage of the expediency in viewing the data would be in SAR.
Otherwise, it isn't like a dispatcher will be monitoring and able to send them an ACARS message saying "hey, watch your speed." Everything else, FOQA and related safety programs should help control. |
Ground speed of 353 at FL363.
Unlikely to have a 130 knot headwind in the tropics. Airspeed/Mach No, very slow. |
Assuming you recognise everything is going to hell in a hand-basket, at reasonable altitude is the option of simply switching off the auto-pilot and any other automatic systems and stopping supplying control inputs a better option than trying to fly out of the situation? I.e. let the aircraft fly itself.
I get the impression that in the case of Air-France Flight 447 that would have been a good choice. In general, or at least with Airbus aircraft, is that a good choice? Or are there envelopes outside of which a pilot is required to regain stability? |
According to the Malaysian press the flight was roughly halfway through it's journey when the pilot requested a change of course, no distress signal had been sent.
Kompas.com reported that the flight was piloted by Captain Irianto with Emmanuel Plesel as the first officer. - See more at: AirAsia flight was halfway to Singapore when it went missing, says official - The Malaysian Insider |
Originally Posted by Ichiban
(Post 8799260)
Ground speed of 353 at FL363.
Unlikely to have a 130 knot headwind in the tropics. Airspeed/Mach No, very slow. http://i.imgur.com/wvO6Io5.jpg |
That (last) ADS-B data point does show 32,000 feet, so it was before the climb, hence it's no surprise to see a normal speed in those normal conditions. If speed decayed it would've been later than this point.
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Lets put this climbing higher when there is weather around,to bed!
We all know there are times when it is sensible,and others when it's not.,20k of Worldwide ops teaches you that kind of thing... Or maybe not! Flightradar24 means that CNN knows where the aircraft is,before anyone else! His trimsheet is already out there...I must smarten up my signature..Cripes! |
Originally Posted by JCviggen
(Post 8799272)
That (last) ADS-B data point does show 32,000 feet, so it was before the climb, hence it's no surprise to see a normal speed in those normal conditions. If speed decayed it would've been later than this point.
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There is usually a lot of traffic around that area, unusual that there is not Distress Radio Beacon signal, IF the worst has occurred!
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As far as we know, ATC never gave permission to climb, so the aircraft was still at 32,000 feet, until whatever happened, happened. |
As far as we know, ATC never gave permission to climb, so the aircraft was still at 32,000 feet, until whatever happened, happened. |
Originally Posted by peekay4
(Post 8799283)
That's not correct. Per official briefing, the flight requested (and was granted) permission from Jakarta center to deviate left and climb to FL380.
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HF communication?
I haven't flown in that part of the world for a few years now but is it all VHF comm on that route? Were the crew loaded up with HF position reports etc. In those conditions the weather radar returns can be daunting and it looks as if a huge diversion was in order to "get around" the Cumulo Nimbus build ups. The Captain may have felt that by climbing higher he would have gained visual cues as to a best route through the CBs. The SigWx chart would have left the crew in no doubt that they could not have climbed above (max FL390 for A320) the thunderstorms in that general area. Hopefully the crew were given plenty of fuel on board for the necessary weather diversion. Some airlines have the capability to give weather advisories from their operations department while others do not. It's often times down to the pilots to use the weather radar to the best of their ability to thread their way through.
Detecting CBs on radar in this part of the world (ICTZ) is not as straight forward as in higher latitudes in my experience. If this doesn't end well my sincerest condolences and sympathy to all concerned. |
Briefing by BASARNAS (Indonesian National SAR).
Some info from Reuters: AirAsia flight carrying 162 people goes missing in Southeast Asia: officials | Reuters Flight QZ8501 was between the Indonesian port of Tanjung Pandan and the town of Pontianak, in West Kalimantan province on Borneo island, when it went missing, Atmodjo told a news conference in Jakarta. The aircraft had been flying at 32,000 feet and had asked to fly at 38,000 feet to avoid clouds, he added. |
p.j.m I don't think there are winds anything like that in that area right now.
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I haven't flown in that part of the world for a few years now but is it all VHF comm on that route? |
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I'm surprised there are no reports of debris sightings or ELT signals at the moment. M635 is usually quite a busy airways with traffic coming through from Australia and Bali to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.
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@training wheels
There is one report here: Indonesian portal reports of plane crash in Belitung Timur - The Malaysian Insider But no verification available from other sources... |
Real winds and some speed calculations
To clarify the winds question here's a cropped pic of the winds aloft chart for FL340 on Dec 28th, 00Z.:
http://i.picresize.com/images/2014/12/28/zrxf.gif If both the ATC Radar and the L&T sheet pictures are true, using a speed calculator we can get the following info: GS: 353 kts Average Tailwind according to the chart: 20 kts TAS at 36,300ft: 333 kts Computed MACH: 0.58 Computed equivalent airspeed: 180 kts Now, from the A320 QRH with an actual TOW of 63.6T the calculated Green Dot speed would be around 223 kts at that altitude (The corresponding VLS and V alpha prot would be quite close to that number). All these numbers are just a rough guess using ISA Standard conditions (Usually in this part of the World we have ISA +10 to +15 at cruise FLs) |
ELT activate on water contact
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