thing, no need to clench at all. Insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq (post-2003) have been armed with nothing more potent than shoulder-launched heat-seeking missiles. Even the most modern of these can't get anywhere near FL300. There is no risk to traffic overflying Afghanistan in the cruise (different story if you're landing though!). No-one, not even the CIA, Soviets or Iranians has been stupid enough to give anything vaguely potent to the mujahideen or the Taliban, because they know they would have absolutely no control over it. The same is true of most other 'insurgency'-type conflict areas; if the only threat is the shoulder-launched missile then overflight is nothing to be unduly worried about.


The Ukraine scenario is another matter entirely - 3 separate parties, all armed with high-performance radar-guided SAMs with capability up to and above FL400. Given that these SAMs have been used on multiple occasions in recent days, there should have been much greater circumspection from airlines about flying through the area.


Another point to consider is that a shoulder-launched missile operator has to see his target before firing. Even an irregular fighter would recognize the difference between a contrailing airliner way up high, and a military jet manoeuvering in the middle airspace, and they are not so stupid as to waste precious missiles on airliners, which in any case would be of negative strategic value to them. In contrast, the radar SAM operator aims his missile at a blip on his screen, and if he's not interrogating Mode 3, there would be no evident difference between an airliner cruising at FL330 and a lower-altitude target such as a ground attack aircraft or a military transport. It's this that makes radar SAM operation such a demanding and specialized discipline, and heck, even the Americans get it wrong from time to time - let alone irregular troops of unknown training.

Eurocontrol statement: (excerpt)
MH 17 - Ukraine | Eurocontrol

airspace was closed up to fl240 weeks ago. lately it was closed up to Fl 320. now up to 660.

Per WSJ on-line
U.S. intelligence confirms surface-to-air missile fired at Malaysian jet but are divided over origin.

I would hate to be the guy who pulled the trigger on that SAM. Shooting down a civilian airliner with Europeans/North Americans on board makes zero sense politically, and that applies to "Russian Separatists" as well as Putin. I predict the blame game will go back and forth with Russia accusing Ukraine.

*U.S. Intelligence Agencies Confirm Surface-to-Air Missile Fired at Malaysian Airliner: Officials

*Intelligence Detected Surface Missile Launch, Tracked Explosion of Plane, Official Says

*Intelligence Community Divided Over Whether Missile From Russia or E. Ukraine, Official Says.

WSJ Online.

Nothing further heard or confirmed as yet.

Reference please.

"Intercepted phone conversations"
 

Reuters and the Guardian linking to YouTube of alleged intercepted convos among rebels discussing the incident. In Russian.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g

Flightradar24 tweeted 4 hours ago: "Flightradar24.com is connecting more servers to handled big traffic boost. Sorry for disruption :("

What kind of thinking will lead one to flight plan at FL330, when the airspace below is closed for damn good reasons? What risk assessment took place, and how could the outcome from such an assessment ever come to the conclusion 330 and above would be safe, when 320 and below are demonstrably not?

Given the fact at least 23 US citizens were killed as a direct result of a conscious decision to route over this area, a phalanx of exceedingly well versed corporate culpability lawyers will have a field day with this one, to the extent it might very well bankrupt Malaysian Airlines. And I, for one, honestly hope it does, for the single reason of giving every other airline such a scare, they might actually live up their mantra of 'safety first and above all else'. Those of us who've been in the industry long enough, knows just how hollow that rings when put up against the might of financial interests.

Chilling post by TC Ukraine from just over a month ago....

People on board by nationality[17]
Nationality Number
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...rlands.svg.png Netherlands 143
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...laysia.svg.png Malaysia 37
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...tralia.svg.png Australia 27
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...States.svg.png United States 23
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...onesia.svg.png Indonesia 12
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ingdom.svg.png United Kingdom 6
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...France.svg.png France 6
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ermany.svg.png Germany 4
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...vil%29.svg.png Belgium 3
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...Canada.svg.png Canada 1
Unknown 35
Total 295

The Buk-missile goes to at least 72,000'
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_m...tional_service
See Jane's

Of course it's too early to attribute blame.

But surely the sighting by an AP journalist of a Buk SAM system in rebel hands in the area today, the announcement by Itar-Tass some days ago that the rebels had a Buk system, the claim by the rebels (since deleted) they had a Buk system and the claim by the rebels they had shot down an AN26 at the same time the MH flight was downed are pointers towards something.....?

Or not.....:hmm:

Once the aircraft loses power and aerodynamic properties it will fall like the proverbial. A gravity bomb would travel about 5 miles. In this case I would expect debris to travel only 3-4 miles.

2 5000:
On tape the rebels speak russian with east-ukrainian (local) accent. It seems the rebels expected to see the debris from military airplane, but what they've got - only civil things...

My interpretation is that the initial sighting was of debris with the naked eye and that due to the quality of the phone camera used did not show this debris very clearly. Only the subsequent explosion from the impact of the main section is more obviously seen.

from ABC news
 

" Speaking in Detroit, Vice President Joe Biden said the plane had "been shot down, not an accident. Blown out of the sky."

"We see reports that there may have been American citizens on board," he added. "Obviously, that’s our first concern. We’re working every minute to try to confirm those reports as I speak."

Malaysia Airlines Plane Brought Down by Missile in Ukraine: US Official
Jul 17, 2014, 4:50 PM ET
By COLLEEN CURRY and LUIS MARTINEZ
Luis Martinez More from Luis »
Producer
Colleen Curry More from Colleen »
Colleen Curry
Reporter
via Good Morning America

Here's a clip of the Antonov 26 being shot down on July 14.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=bb2_1405337959
Anyone have any observations? Looks too high for the MANPADS we know they had, but I could easily be wrong. Also, again it looks like the plane was quite high (you can't see it initially, but there is flame on the way down).

Just thought I'd throw it into the mix since this is corroborated footage.

On cleared overflight heights

240 had been considered safe. Increasing this to 320 - ie 30% - was probably a safe margin. Overlying at 330 was 'safe' as you don't add safety margins to safety margins. OK, they were wrong, but legally the airline was not to blame.