Oil Rig Worker
 

Very convincing..NOT!

Good on position and bearings, but an accurate date and time would make the the so-called sighting more convincing.

Unfortunate that Mr. McKay's efforts to help has now resulted in his email address, full names and passport details to be revealed.

Why is it suspicious? Looks like a real email at first look to me.

The only sus thing is the NZ passport number on the bottom, too many 8's in it for my liking...

Griffo: if the masks weren't donned (as per Helios) it doesn't matter how long the O2 supply could potentially sustain passengers/cabin crew....

If I were (legitimately or otherwise) up front wearing cockpit O2/smoke mask before manual depress, I would expect my emergency O2 supply to last considerably longer than that for SLF....

life raft
 

all life raft i've seen installed on widebody have light gray color. Life raft found at Port Dickson is black so this is not the typical life raft on large commercial jet. Its likely that this is use by marine vessels.

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopo...ash-asiana.jpg

Hang on.....the Vietnamese Authorites are now saying that when the aircraft first went missing, they tracked it going west and they told the Malaysians, but they did not respond back to them.

As each hour passes, a huge cover up seems to be more and more possible.

Let us also not forget Port Dickson's location in relation to KUL. Even if the source of the raft were ambiguous, that seems much too south. Combined with the amount of ship traffic through that area, it would appear completely unrelated.

So far Vietnamese authorities have been consistent in their statements.

Agree - its currently operation cover-up going on.:rolleyes:

Interesting data points, and all so late in the piece.


A note on the oil rig spotting: The range estimate of 50-70km is way too far to identify an aircraft visually. A bright fire you could see that far no problem, but you would not be able to say that it was an aircraft. And at 50km a fire that bright would be pretty fearsome.

I have been spending my life squinting to see known aircraft at known distances and about ten miles is the limit to make out the shape. You can see strobe lights at 20 nm from a very dark vantage point.

So, what did he see?

It's the ACARS you should be worried about in terms of security, not the onboard entertainment system.

He's reporting what he saw and how far away HE guessed it to be. Obviously it wasn't as far away as he thought.

West of Malaysia, especially Malacca Strait is well under surveillance by Indian Navy. They have their base in Andaman "INS Baaz"which was recently handed over to their Navy:

India Gives Navy Control of Andaman and Nicobar Command | Defense News | defensenews.com

I am sure they must have been tracking that area, why dont they come forward and share some information.

I would hazard a guess that your post on mobile phones vanished because the topic of mobile phones has been covered again and again and again and again and again and again.

We absolutely need to put a stop to people coming on here with their mobile phone conspiracy theories. As has been pointed out multiple times by multiple people.... the mobile phone stuff is a red herring, a false lead .... really, it is not worthy of discussion, at all, ever.

I'm a telecom engineer. What is normally called "ringing" is actually ringback tones. Unfortunately, there are situations in which ringback is erroneously generated. I think that if one was to try calling all the phones that were on board, 99.9% would not give ringback, but if any does, is false.

It is not so simple, there is no global datababase and while it is know that operator routinely log network registrations, there is no law that obliges them to do that. So since the most likely place where registration last occoured is Malaysia, it would be to their autorities to investigate using this method. For phones roaming from abroad, the home network would only know time, country and operator a give SIM last roamed in, but no other details.

It is folly to assume that incompetence has a purpose... Incompetence is just what it says it is. Having lived and worked in the region, the way the communication is being handled fully meets my expectations.

That being said, there is probably plenty we do not know, but that is likely being withheld to save face or preserve egos rather than as a piece of a grander scheme. Everything seems to point in the direction that even those supposedly in the know are just as confused as we are here on the forum, just their high office precludes admitting that.

Cover up
 

I live in the region and have been following the thread and a lot of the available publications in the press with interest. I am convinced, that something really crazy happened that Malaysia are trying to cover up. Maybe a high jacking gone wrong, just can't make up my mind if they crashed by themseves (but why would Malaysia cover it up) or they were shot down by Malaysian military (or something else very crazy).

I am just sure of something: China will be very very angry very soon, about being fooled by Malaysia. How many millions have been spent by almost a dozen countries looking in the wrong place. Malaysia will have no choice but to come out with the truth. I do not even understand how Malaysia can start searching on its west coast but denying it had any hint that the plane headed that way. There is something so obviously wrong and not matching, I am in fact surprised that China hasn't really made a big fuzz yet....

Pinkman---100% agree. A few of us said back on page 1 that there are a lot of Fishing Boats and Oil Rigs in the region and there must have been someone that saw something......

rundown of contradictory statements
 

Here's a thorough rundown of contradictory statements made by Malaysian authorities since this began:

Contradictory statements from Malaysia over missing airliner perplex, infuriate

"Azharuddin Abdul Rahman proceeded to issue the latest in a series of contradictory statements on the missing plane – statements from the Malaysians that have added to the confusion, infuriated passengers’ relatives and frustrated nearby governments."

On Spiegel.de (German language), it is claimed that the last transmission received from the aircraft was "All right, good night" or the like (translated by Spiegel into German and by me back into English, so exact words may vary). This was received at the occasion of the handover from Singapore to Ho Chi Minh.

If correct, it does not appear abnormal to me: just a standard salutation upon leaving a frequency without any indication of anything untoward.

An engine failure at night can emit a huge trail of sparks. Quite possibly one that is visible for miles. Completely plausible that this rig worker did see something. But no wreckage below.

Aircraft then turns westwards towards the wrong TRN VOR (as outlined by tarzanboy, copied below) descends by 10,000 feet -a figure mentioned by the Malaysians (but in meters). That would roughly correlate to drift down to the 777 OEI cruise?

Heads to wrong VOR, overrun with other problems (fumes/smoke) aircraft keeps on trucking westwards.

Re NZ 'burning' email
 

The only thing missing in the report was the actual time of observation (UT+7 for Vietnam, UT+8 for Malaysia)

Reading it, he obviously saw something burning and wrote burning (plane) to indicate he thought the burning could be a plane.

His bearing is basically due West. At the time of interest and given the duration it's unlikely to be a planet. It could be an aircraft at any distance depending on altitude.

The other alternative is a satellite. I've seen naked-eye satellites flare brightly and expand in size due to outgassing while in orbit. Alternatively I've also seen satellites re-entering that flared for about that period of time - tens of seconds. The only unusual thing is it was due west while satellites tend to orbit in an inclined plane, so no lateral movement is a problem for that explanation - though not impossible.

There's also the possibility that someone (e.g. a fishing boat) has found floating debris and kept it to themselves. Has happened in the region before, the Lauda air 004 where looters carried away personal belongings and aircraft parts: Lauda Air Flight 004 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An equally interesting comment a long ways back that got little discussion also seems relevant. A question about accessibility and security of the MEC (Mechanical Equipment Center) on the 777.

A little research turns up some very interesting info.

First lets look at the MEC location - below and immediately behind the flight deck seems a perfect spot to have catastrophic consequences.

http://www.skybrary.aero/images/B772_MEC_FIRE.jpg

A search seems to show incidents which exhibited characteristics that well fit some of the scenarios discussed here at PPRuNe. Scenarios that address the seemingly unlikely event of loss of comms, loss of telemetry (ACARS), loss of transponder etc.

The investigation found:

It does not in my opinion take an engineer or accident investigator to see that had this incident occurred at cruise that the results could very well have matched what has been speculated here.

A failure (or even a breach) in the MEC causes fire. As the crew is unable to shut down and deplane, the incident escalates with smoke filling cabin/cockpit, followed quickly by electrical failure as we saw happen in this incident ...

As the fire continues uncontained, with the aircraft deaf and dumb - electrical; and as a result comms, transponder, ACARS etc all down, the fire breaches the aircraft hull - as it was well on its way to doing in this incident - followed by a rapid depressurization.

It seems entirely possible and plausible that in such instance, as the damage would be advanced before the crew even were aware - and with the likely rapid loss of electric bus and all related, that no Mayday would get out between discovery and loss of power.

I think it also at least plausible that the pilots MAY have been able to initiate an emergency procedure, but may have rapidly lost consciousness.

More experienced pilots please comment, but I believe the response to a rapid decompression at cruise is to push the nose over hard into a banked descent. I can imagine pilots initiating the emergency descent maneuver at same time they dial in a heading and lower altitude, then being overcome - by depressurization and as the descent continues, then by smoke.

The aircraft, even in distress, could likely fly a fairly long ways. With in the fairly long delay before anyone realized or were worried about the aircraft being missing, it could have traveled well out of the area.

If the MEC is accessible from the cabin it seems terrorism is at least possible - and seems something to look at. But regardless, this incident seems to show everything necessary to casue the scenario we have been discussing, is present in a previous incident with the aircraft.


References:

Short Version:
Air Accidents Investigation: S2/2007 Boeing 777-222, N786UA


Air Investigation Bulletin - Overview:
http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...7%20N786UA.pdf

Air Investigation - Complete:
http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/647.pdf

The guy in the email must have good eyes, the rig is currently located in the Caribbean Sea 22.84518 / -79.38331

Or a military jet on full afterburner, maybe scrambled to intercept the jet that apparently turned off its transponder?

This was discussed at length earlier in the thread. On the 777 it is not a "push the nose hard over" screaming dive, it is ideally performed with the autopilot "in", and Boeing do not make it mandatory to change heading (left or right).

All of these "what if's" would have sent a message to the company:=

IRU on 9M-MRG
 

I mentioned the ADIRU in another post.. This airplane (MRG) had an issue a while ago where they had zero authority on the control surfaces while it was in AP. Not saying MRO had this problem, but it's a little weird they were at similar cruising altitudes.



On 1 August 2005 a serious incident involving Malaysia Airlines Flight 124, occurred when a Boeing 777-2H6ER (9M-MRG) flying from Perth to Kuala Lumpur also involved an ADIRU fault resulting in uncommanded manoeuvres by the aircraft acting on false indications.[14] In that incident the incorrect data impacted all planes of movement while the aircraft was climbing through 38,000 feet (11,600 m). The aircraft pitched up and climbed to around 41,000 feet (12,500 m), with the stall warning activated. The pilots recovered the aircraft with the autopilot disengaged and requested a return to Perth. During the return to Perth, both the left and right autopilots were briefly activated by the crew, but in both instances the aircraft pitched down and banked to the right. The aircraft was flown manually for the remainder of the flight and landed safely in Perth. There were no injuries and no damage to the aircraft. The ATSB found that the main probable cause of this incident was a latent software error which allowed the ADIRU to use data from a failed accelerometer.[15]
The US Federal Aviation Administration issued Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2005-18-51 requiring all 777 operators to install upgraded software to resolve the error.[16]

All the stories about possible turn-back, sightings over the Straits Of Malacca etc are just that... stories. They are qualified by "believed to have", "think that" etc etc.

We are still where we were last Saturday morning - no evidence of what has happened to the flight

Who said the company didn't get them?

Maybe no one was reading them, or the initial info was ignored.

Would explain some behaviours of multi-medalled generals.

It would crash. There is nothing in the 777 systems that would prevent it flying into the ocean. If and it's an if, the fisherman are correct, and the aircraft was flying straight and level at a low altitude, then someone was flying it, or making autopilot inputs.

Latest briefing postponed again according to BBC World just now.

@ Tarzanboy #2045 (was post #2063)
 

At last something that makes sense and 'feels' right for an explanation.

It answers some of the 'whys'

..... and it wouldn't be the first "crash/aircraft loss" due to an incorrect way point input

MEC fire
 

Yes this could be a cause of fire and lead to an accident.

However I am sure that the crew if being faced with smoke and fumes in the front end would go through the QReF and don mask and initiate a long shallow to a lower altitude as rightly stated by a dial in of the autopilot. (at the same time initiate other drills to do something to locate and react if at all possible to the smoke/fire) By this stage there would be four eyes and two pairs of hands on this going through check list. A busy time.

All crews of all types will have practiced this in the SIM many times.

Regarding the search in the other direction.

Lets face facts, one of the radar sites reported a radar hit at about the time it could be reasonable to assume this flight could reach if in fact it made a turn. Reported it was not transmitting mode S.
If the authoritys there did not fully investigate and search these areas then I am sure every one would be up in arms that they have not made all efforts.

This is a very sad situation for the industry regardless untill we know the full outcome and untill the DFDR and CVR are located and the data accessed wwe never will do. However its good that so many front seaters are responding on here with very usefull information.

@HamishMcBush

Exactly! That's the point I was making in mine #1951.

IMO, after a lot of research here on this thread and elsewhere, there has been no definitive official statement by the SAR investigators that a turn back over the peninsular happened!

Oil rig letter
 

Some facts:

The Songa Mercur is currently drilling in Block 05-1c in Vietnamese waters.

The reported location in the letter is within that Block - I don't have access to the exact coordinates of the well.

The distance to the last reported location is 306 nm on a true bearing of 276.5 degrees:

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c3...ps509f48dd.jpg


Note that the bearing line runs just south of the Con Son Islands and across the tip of the Ca Mau peninsula.

For an aircraft at FL350 to be visible from the rig, it would need to be closer than 230 nm. At FL200, 175 nm.

It does say Last Recorded Position - Recorded on: 2013-02-18 08:15:00 (UTC)

It may have moved since then.

@readw - Wrong. Do your research properly before you post crap. The Songa Mercur oil rig is currently in the South China Sea, at the location mentioned in the oil rig workers email - and the company that owns it has reported a 100% successful operational period during February (click on "February fleet update" at bottom centre of page).

Songa Offshore

Is there any possibility the plane came down over land and never made it back across Malaysia? Dense jungle has absorbed planes before, leaving little or no trace, especially if - and I appreciate it's a big if - the plane broke up in mid air. Just a thought, albeit a very amateur one (no flames, please).

Mobile Phone Tracking
 

Nobody seems to have responded in any detail to the various points about pax phones.

It is common knowledge that many cell phones are left on during flights. Given the demographics, most MH370 passengers would be using smartphones. This raises one interesting avenue of enquiry, and one non-issue.

"QQ" IP Number Logs

If MH370 crossed Peninsular Malaysia at relatively low altitude, some of those phones could have established contact with cell phone towers along the flight path, if only for short periods. Such contacts are logged by the telephone operators even if no call is made. MH knows the numbers of most phones on board because they were used for passenger registration.

More interesting is the fact that smartphone apps contact certain websites automatically when a cell connection is established. Families of some Chinese passengers are reported to have observed that QQ (similar to Gmail chat) showed the missing passengers as logged in. (Login could be entirely automatic under control of a smartphone app.) If true, this means that QQ (as well as the Malaysian cell phone carrier, and the respective governments) have a log of the IP addresses associated with passenger smartphones during the fleeting connection with the Peninsular cell phone towers.

As regards jamming, it is, of course, possible to jam phones, but considerable power would be required to jam every single phone throughout the length of the fuselage, in the cockpit, crew quarters, etc.

Non-Issue - Phones "Ringing Out" Without Going to Voicemail

Another claim in relation to phones is probably true but irrelevant - families of passengers claim that when they attempted to call the passengers' phones, they encountered a continuous ring tone (ring out) rather than being diverted to voicemail or an error message after one or two rings.

Based on my own experience, Chinese cell phone carriers sometimes handle unavailable phones in very idiosyncratic ways, particularly when a Chinese phone is used outside China. There seems to be official concern that voicemail could be used for surreptitious political communications.