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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

Jabawocky 11th Mar 2014 23:42

Anyone remember the three Ugly Sisters at QF, one developed a massive crack in the fuse which could have easily sent it to the bottom of the Pacific.

I hope not but could the ex MAS B744 crack, caused by illegitimate sealant removal using a box cutter, be repeated again? :uhoh:

Often it pays to look at history, as it has a habit of repeating itself.

andrasz 11th Mar 2014 23:44


Originally Posted by mickjoebill
The theory has not yet been debunked.

On land gravity keeps things at the bottom of the crater. In water buoyant objects rise to the surface. Also don't underestimate the arresting and destructive force of 50-100 metres of water in a high-speed impact.

Capt Kremin 11th Mar 2014 23:44

A semi-retraction from the RMAF.

IMHO this is ridiculous butt-covering. Any credible SAR effort would not commit such serious assets to a search area so diametrically opposed to the track of the aircraft in question without very good reasons.

The Malaysian political imperatives now seem to be taking over, leading to an impression of a confused SAR effort.

The Malaysians need to be upfront here. Already the suspicions of a cover up are beginning.


OFFICIAL STATEMENT BY CHIEF OF ROYAL MALAYSIAN AIR FORCE ON
BERITA HARIAN NEWS ARTICLE DATED 11th MARCH 2014 ON SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS IN THE STRAITS OF MALACCA

1. I refer to the Berita Harian news article dated 11th March 2014 on Search and Rescue Operations in the Straits of Malacca which (in Bahasa Malaysia) referred to me as making the following statements:

The RMAF Chief confirmed that RMAF Butterworth airbase detected the location signal of the airliner as indicating that it turned back from its original heading to the direction of Kota Bahru, Kelantan, and was believed to have pass through the airspace of the East Coast of and Northern Peninsular Malaysia.

The last time the plane was detected by the air control tower was in the vicinity of Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca at 2.40 in the morning before the signal disappeared without any trace, he said.

2. I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above, what occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story, however I did not give any answer to the question, instead what I said to the journalist was “Please refer to the statement which I have already made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Force at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport”.

3. What I stated during that press conference was,

The RMAF has not ruled out the possibility of an air turn back on a reciprocal heading before the aircraft vanished from the radar and this resulted in the Search and Rescue Operations being widen to the vicinity of the waters of Pulau Pinang.

4. I request this misreporting be amended and corrected to prevent further misinterpretations of what is clearly an inaccurate and incorrect report.

5. Currently the RMAF is examining and analyzing all possibilities as regards to the airliner’s flight paths subsequent to its disappearance. However for the time being, it would not be appropriate for the RMAF to issue any official conclusions as to the aircraft’s flight path until a high amount of certainty and verification is achieved. However all ongoing search operations are at the moment being conducted to cover all possible areas where the aircraft could have gone down in order to ensure no possibility is overlooked.

6. In addition, I would like to state to the media that all information and developments will be released via official statements and press conferences as soon as possible and when appropriate. Our current efforts are focused upon on finding the aircraft as soon as possible.

Thank You

GENERAL TAN SRI DATO’SRI RODZALI BIN DAUD RMAF
Chief of Royal Malaysian Air Force

Released On:

11 March 14
Kuala Lumpur

JamesCam 11th Mar 2014 23:50

Crew oxygen supply
 
Are there two completely separate bottles/regs/valves etc, ie independent systems for each pilot?

Is there a portable oxygen supply stowed in the cockpit?

Murexway 11th Mar 2014 23:54


DType
Disc failure unlikely???
One assumes (!) that it was not at take off power when it "vanished", and there is much less stress on most engine components at cruise power
Certainly true, but it certainly can happen. United flight 232 suffered a catastrophic fan disc failure in cruise at FL370.

United Airlines Flight 232 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

FE Hoppy 11th Mar 2014 23:55

DAUD is covering his ass here as reuters reported the story was confirmed by another military source.

TURIN 11th Mar 2014 23:56


Are there two completely separate bottles/regs/valves etc, ie independent systems for each pilot?

Is there a portable oxygen supply stowed in the cockpit?

James
Two bottles feeding a common system to both pilots & jump seat occupants. ( I think-it's been a while).

Portable 02 in the cockpit? Not to my knowledge.

GroundedDinosaur 11th Mar 2014 23:58

777 is a fly-by-wire aircraft
 
If for some reason, all electrical went out to lunch .. all of the major control surfaces might go to neutral? (remember, the 777 is the first fly-by-wire commercial jet) You'd be flying similar to the Sioux City aircraft without hydraulics? Only the engines to control left/right/up/down with? I think you'd have major problems with the up/down .. it might go into a phugoid oscillatory mode. Very difficult to control .. flying low .. you might get an idea of land/water to see where you were, but, you're cooked. You have to figure a place to land, and it's not going to be pretty. But, I'd think that there would be battery power for the critical items .. flight control computers, comm radios? Unless it was some sort of power surge throughout the system?

Majorbyte 12th Mar 2014 00:00

in my opinion from the little evidence available, it had a depressurisation problem rendering the flight crew and passengers unconscious, resulting in the aircraft flying solely on autopilot and completely unmonitored from the malacca straights on an approximate track taking it over the indian ocean towards the island of madagascar via diago garcia, where at some point it ran out of fuel.

K9P 12th Mar 2014 00:00

Jabawocky:-

I had the exact same thoughts, same airline same paint removal process

Count Niemantznarr 12th Mar 2014 00:01

Isn't about time all data is transmitted/streamed live from an aircraft, rather than just information on engine condition to the manufacturer? With the AF A330 crash, investigators had a reasonable idea of what happened through the final ACARS messages.

Searching for the CVR and Black Box can be a challenge, in this case, the authorities cannot even find the aircraft!

tartare 12th Mar 2014 00:03

OK.
So the RMAF are now saying they didn't track it westbound?
I'm a little confused.
Without intending to irritate anyone, or appear callous in regard to the souls missing, transponder appears to be located on the pedestal next to the FO's left arm... tries to squawk 7700 while passing out and instead accidentally switches it off...?

prayingmantis 12th Mar 2014 00:06

yep
 
Diego Garcia - now there's a place with limited radar capabilities!!! Surely they would have missed an incursion into their airspace :rolleyes:

grumpyoldgeek 12th Mar 2014 00:06


Without intending to irritate anyone, or appear callous in regard to the souls missing, transponder appears to be located on the pedestal next to the FO's left arm... tries to squawk 7700 while passing out and instead accidentally switches it off...?
Doesn't seem likely. The code change switches have a different and distinctive feel from the mode selector switch.

Buster Hyman 12th Mar 2014 00:07


Anyone remember the three Ugly Sisters at QF, one developed a massive crack in the fuse which could have easily sent it to the bottom of the Pacific.
Very well, my Brother in Law was on that flight. (Assuming you mean the one where the O2 broke loose & ran amok in the cabin before exiting the fuselage). I thought of this in relation to the crew oxy & electronics location question. Massive damage from a rogue cylinder there.

Old Boeing Driver 12th Mar 2014 00:07

Majorbyte
 
I lean to your theory, although we still haven't been able to rule out foul play, and that the airplane was taken for a reason.

overthewing 12th Mar 2014 00:12


In all these posts, the only real facts known are that the transponder was turned off, the plane turned back, and descended, and was last detected by the military radar westbound until the signal abruptly disappeared.
Do we know that the signal disappeared, or simply left Malaysian radar range?

flt001 12th Mar 2014 00:15

I've completely missed the source saying the military are retracting their statement that the plane changed track westbound. Anyone?

If true it fits into their PR mode of making some vague statement, leaving it one news cycle then retracting said statement.

TURIN 12th Mar 2014 00:17


If for some reason, all electrical went out to lunch .. all of the major control surfaces might go to neutral? (remember, the 777 is the first fly-by-wire commercial jet) You'd be flying similar to the Sioux City aircraft without hydraulics? Only the engines to control left/right/up/down with? I think you'd have major problems with the up/down .. it might go into a phugoid oscillatory mode. Very difficult to control .. flying low .. you might get an idea of land/water to see where you were, but, you're cooked. You have to figure a place to land, and it's not going to be pretty. But, I'd think that there would be battery power for the critical items .. flight control computers, comm radios? Unless it was some sort of power surge throughout the system?
A320 was the first fly by wire airliner.

B777-You would still have engine driven and air driven hydraulic pumps running.

B777-Spoilers No.4 & No.11 have backup cable controls. So some roll control still.

Willoz269 12th Mar 2014 00:17

This is baffling, at first I thought "up to 7 days before they find it"...now I am not so sure.

If reports are true that theaircraft turned back, it begs more questions than answers:

-Why was it no longer transmitting any comms, either radio, transponder, acars, nothing? (I would hazard a guess at fire onboard)
- What was so serious that necessitated a turn back?
- Why did they descend (if indeed eyewitnesses did see the aircraft), did they lose all instruments? all electrics, all displays, which explains loss of comms, etc as well?
- I was around 2AM...dark night, did they lose sight of mainland, no instrumentation, descended to get visual?

If so, this aeroplane could be absolutely anywhere. :uhoh:

Old Boeing Driver 12th Mar 2014 00:21

Overthwing/flt001
 
The quote above in Post #1977 was what I was going by.

"the signal disappeared without any trace"

Was it because it got to end of their coverage?

I think this is the only "official" statement, but does not retract the westbound statement. (Maybe I read it wrong)

GarageYears 12th Mar 2014 00:23

Until someone can convincingly explain how depressurization can be linked to the loss of the transponders... yes, there are two transponders in the T7, left and right, selectable via the transponder panel, it seems difficult to see how depressurization would lead to the transponders failing.

The external antennas are in different locations (though I can't find my reference to where exactly). Turning off the transponder isn't just a toggle or push-button, the switch is a rotary and you'd have to move it two positions to get it into the standby condition.

mm43 12th Mar 2014 00:28

Another "expert" is now being quoted in the New Straits Times

According to him, the Under Water Beacon (ULB) can emit a signal for hundreds of miles but if the black box is covered with debris or falls into a trench at the bottom of the sea, then the strength and range of the signal would be lower.
For the record a Towed Pinger Locator (TPL) can only be expected to detect an operational ULB 37.5kHz signal when no more than 2 - 3km from its source. Ninety percent reliability is around 1,800 meters, and water temperature inversion layers can often create a variable outcome.

wishiwasupthere 12th Mar 2014 00:30

First up, I'm not an airline pilot but a mere lowly GA charter pilot. But in the aircraft I fly, before changing a code on a transponder you turn it to standby. Is this the same in airliners? Following the path of some sort of catastrophic depressurisation, is it possible that Hypoxia dealt the crew it's fatal blow as they were in the process of changing the transponder code, hence it appearing to be turned off?

Ranger One 12th Mar 2014 00:32


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 8367935)
Very well, my Brother in Law was on that flight. (Assuming you mean the one where the O2 broke loose & ran amok in the cabin before exiting the fuselage). I thought of this in relation to the crew oxy & electronics location question. Massive damage from a rogue cylinder there.

Negative, he's referring to an incident about ten years ago where a QF 744 was discovered to have a serious structural crack in the fuselage during a heavy check.

IIRC from the bumpf that circulated at the time, the crack was determined to have been caused by improper paint removal during an earlier repaint, using a metal scraper tool, which gouged the metal; the gouge then acted as a stress-raiser, precipitating the crack.

Someone correct me if I'm wildly wrong on the above?

Old Boeing Driver 12th Mar 2014 00:33

Garage Years
 
That's the issue I keep coming back to.

A few posts ago, someone asked if the transponder could be turned off in the haste of changing codes in an emergency.

The response was that the knobs have a very different feel.

I lean the same way. I think it was turned off manually.

Why was the transponder turned off?

JamesCam 12th Mar 2014 00:36

GarageYears :


'Turning off the transponder isn't just a toggle or push-button, the switch is a rotary and you'd have to move it two positions to get it into the standby condition.'
True, but you are supposed to go to standby before changing the code, so possibly he forgot to switch it back on or passed out before he'd done so.

That said, I don't believe the above scenario to be the cause of the failure, it doesn't appear to be just the transponder that went quiet..

Edit: Sorry wishiwasupthere: missed your comment saying the same thing...

Ex FSO GRIFFO 12th Mar 2014 00:37

Question...
What is the RADAR facility / range at FJDG, anybody?
Track from 'disappearance point' to DG is approx 245T, and quite within the fuel range..?

Just curious.....

GarageYears 12th Mar 2014 00:38

OBD... and I'll add that I don't think they could be turned off "accidentally" even in a hypoxic state. The mode control knob is completely different from the code rotary.

Old Boeing Driver 12th Mar 2014 00:43

Trqnsponder
 
I have never flown an airliner, and I can't remember any corprate jet where you had to switch the transponder to standby before changing codes.

Some corporate jets actually have a control wheel button that changes the squawk to 7700 if pushed.

Not saying some don't require this, just none I've seen. Don't mean to sound rude.

pigboat 12th Mar 2014 00:47


I have never flown an airliner, and I can't remember any corprate jet where you had to switch the transponder to standby before changing codes.
The idea of switching to STBY between codes was to avoid inadvertently hitting a 7000 code during the code change.

Acute Instinct 12th Mar 2014 00:50

Scribe Marks......
 
http://www.dca.gov.my/Division/Airwo...es/AN%2091.pdf

Will the DCA re-issue a follow up of this Airworthiness Notice, if this aircrafts last repaint took place in the mid to late 2000's?
Will the DCA direct the operator/MRO to conduct immediate inspections of its fleet to discount this possibility?
Will the DCA investigate whether the MRO continued to have, or took disciplinary action against employees who were found to have unapproved implements in their possession in the years following the issue of this AN?

Old Boeing Driver 12th Mar 2014 00:52

Pigboat
 
Great Handle.

I have run across the concept you mention. I think the original post was questioning whether it was a requirement to go to standby before changing codes, or a procedural one like you mentioned.

Maybe someone here with knowledge of MH procedures could clarify this.

It may he helpful in determining why the transponder was turned off.

NSEU 12th Mar 2014 00:52


in my opinion from the little evidence available, it had a depressurisation problem rendering the flight crew and passengers unconscious, resulting in the aircraft flying solely on autopilot and completely unmonitored from the malacca straights on an approximate track taking it over the indian ocean towards the island of madagascar via diago garcia, where at some point it ran out fuel.
Very unlikely. If the cabin altitude went to even 10,000', there would be a loud aural alert in the cockpit plus an EICAS message telling the flight crew that there was a pressurisation problem. I'm sure the pilots are regularly checked for health and wouldn't find 10,000' much of a problem. If they did succumb to lack of oxygen without realising there was anything wrong with pressurisation, the autopilot would have taken them to their destination and beyond (at their current cruise altitude). Also, as previously stated, depressurisation shouldn't have affected their transponders.

gulfairs 12th Mar 2014 00:53

transponder
 
The reason one switches to standby before changing the code, is that if one cycles the code numbers it does flash other transponder codes.
Which is also a reason for having "Ident".
The transponder is a radar aid, it is not a training line to air traffic control.
If there is no transponder, or its off , ATC just read a target: no identity, no altitude no TAS/IAS.no supplementary information

clayne 12th Mar 2014 00:56


Originally Posted by Ian W (Post 8367132)
The aircraft also underwent an extended maintenance ~ 2 weeks ago at which corrosion/cracking around the SATCOM mount should/would have been checked for.

No doubt this plane was taken care of - MAS typically has things in order. On the other hand, what about the aspect that the plane was last "touched" as short as 2 weeks ago?

Creampuff 12th Mar 2014 01:05

Surely the 777 does not have those steam-driven transponders with rotary code select knobs. Surely it would be fitted with the newer push-button code entry controllers that don’t change the transmitted code until the fourth number in the code is entered. :confused:

ad-astra 12th Mar 2014 01:08

With the older rotary Transponders the policy of turning the unit to STBY has merit but with modern keyboard Transponders the likleyhood of an incorrect code is slim and is easily rectified.
The problem with turning the Transponder unit to STBY is that TCAS protections are now lost which in my mind is not an ideal situation.
By all means turn it to STBY but just realise the repercussions whilst it is off and god forbid if it is not turned back on.

Creampuff 12th Mar 2014 01:18

Turning it off is only one explanation, out of numerous, for a transponder ceasing to operate.

Icarus2001 12th Mar 2014 01:23


Surely the 777 does not have those steam-driven transponders with rotary code select knobs. Surely it would be fitted with the newer push-button code entry controllers that don’t change the transmitted code until the fourth number in the code is entered
Quite right Creamie.

Also in some jets I fly with the rotary code selector knobs, as soon as the knob is turned to change the code the TCAS/Transponder goes to standby mode until all digits are selected and set for something like 3 seconds, not sure of exact timing.

As far as this thread goes...Never have so many understood so little but written so much about it!


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