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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

G-ARVH 18th Mar 2014 14:23

If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isn’t it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. It’s good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and I’m quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.

aerobat77 18th Mar 2014 14:23


I have to admit my ignorance:

In the T7, if the FMC is in HDG mode, does that mean it follows course over ground, true course or magnetic course ? And likewise if you are e.g. in Phuket and set e.g. Ushuahia as next waypoint, would it automatically follow a great circle ?
in the hdg mode the autopilot will follow a contant heading which will result with wind drift in a different course over ground . heading is set by the heading knob. the final course over ground will also change if winddirection or speed changes over time and the hdg is not readjusted. the fmc has nothing in common with this mode - fmc follows a programmed track or route ( LNAV ) and the autpoliot here corrects by itself for winddrift to maintain a given track .

Msunduzi 18th Mar 2014 14:26


Originally Posted by G-ARVH (Post 8385630)

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. .



And they knew almost exactly where the Helderberg was, he was in communication to the end.

FE Hoppy 18th Mar 2014 14:27


G-ARVH If there was a Wheel Fire in the main Wheel Well they would get a EICAS Fire Wheel Well Warning and they would have followed the QRH procedure and then declared a Pan or Mayday as required. This would certainly NOT include climbing to FL450 to put out the Fire!!!
( the QRH from memory says to slow below MLO .82/270kias and extend the gear, if the warning continues LAND ASAP. )

Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5

A sequence of events took place that resulted in the crew making a standard left turn after the coms bus was disabled. This action is consistent isn’t it of the crew looking to regain the reciprocal track or at the very least turning off airway. At the same time they would be working through the QRH while trying to get below MLO when events overtook them.

The SAA 747 that was lost over the Indian Ocean was due to a fire in the combi cargo compartment. They eventually recovered the FDR and CVR in 16,000 feet of water. It’s good to see the Aussies taking a bigger lead in this investigation along with the Kiwis. They have the resources experience and knowledge of both the Southern and Indian Ocean, and I’m quietly confident they will locate the hull and recover the FDR in the fullness of time. When that happens (and it will happen) we will finally find out how hard the crew worked to save the aircraft and its passengers. When it happens those of you who have been publishing grossly irresponsible comments suggesting the crew committed suicide, or these ludicrous suggestions the aircraft is parked up on some secret 10,000 ft runway that the rest of us conveniently have never heard of, will end up with substantial egg on face.
And how do you explain everything after that?

And what was the fire doing during the climb?

And why would anyone go up when LAND ASAP for SMOKE?

It doesn't hold water.

Lonewolf_50 18th Mar 2014 14:28


Nitpicker 330 ref your post ~5554 above, why are you dismissing a wheel well fire with such ease. The T7 was heavy and with high relative humidity at KL that night the take-off run would have been long. A deflated tyre may have been detected and if a fire developed in the wheel well EIDAS would have reported that as you correctly point out, however let’s assume they were working through the QRH when events overtook the crew. Any fire especially an electrical fire would be extremely serious and they may have pulled all the main busses while working through the QRH and were restoring electrical circuits in an attempt to identify the bad circuit. Such an action would of course disable the comms including the transponder; however the priority must be to identify and isolate the fire. Even in the worst case the vital bus however would still be good containing the radio including 121.5
FWIW: The hole that I see in this analysis is the flight deck crew continuing on the first leg of their route / departure to the handover point and checking out with ATC on VHF with no meniton of a malfunction, nor of a fire, and likewise no record of them contacting on the company ops freq of such a problem. *retracted*
EDIT: for G-ARVH

We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.
I'll retract the critique, but leave it up in case someone else was thinking along the same lines. Thanks for clearing up the scenario. :ok:

Speed of Sound 18th Mar 2014 14:30

Obadiah
 

The reports that he was a staunch political supporter of Anwar and his party and perhaps even somewhat fanatical toward the democratic cause is also noteworthy.
Aren't most people normal people 'fanatical' about democracy?

Someone who is anti-corruption and pro-democracy is unlikely to use the lives of 240 people to make their point! :ugh:

GarageYears 18th Mar 2014 14:32


The last known position is anywhere along the north and south corridors.
OK, the arcs define the possible location based on the SATCOM ping, but they are also limited by other factors based on maximum range based on fuel load and minimum airspeed range. We have a last known radar fix, and given the time this occurs we can calculate fuel burn to this point, so this defines the *start* of the following calculation. Next we can calculate the minimum airspeed possible from this point to reach the arc point and corresponding fuel burn - if the aircraft cannot have reached the arc then we know it was traveling at some higher speed (but I don't think that applies). Finally we can calculate the maximum range based on optimum cruise speed/min fuel burn, and plot that point on the arc. These two points define the segments of the corridors that apply. At any point between these limits we have a possible distance flown available based on fuel remaining.

G-ARVH 18th Mar 2014 14:36

We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.

dicks-airbus 18th Mar 2014 14:36

There are only two known, proven facts till now:

1) MH370 was at least powered up till last ping received to Inmarsat (8.11).
2) The airframe is still missing.

Everything else (for now) are speculations, from wheel fire, Capt. political/private motives, Chinese terror groups, and so on, and so on.

wild goose 18th Mar 2014 14:38

Descent to 5000' to avoid radar
 
Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar
2) with no Transponder (and no primary returns) how do they know the a/c was at 5000 ft?
3) if the aircraft was tracked doing this over "two or three countries" then what countries were they? What was the flight path?

Sorry, doesn't make sense.

Also, journalists, why aren't you asking about the pings?
The last ping was on the 40 deg arc. On what arcs were the other pings?

The Malaysians are just not being forthcoming about everything they know, they are worthy of hearty condemnation on this.

Pontius Navigator 18th Mar 2014 14:39


Originally Posted by dicks-airbus (Post 8385566)
@ildarin: I read the post that on the flightsim PC specific practices were stored re. these destinations/fields. Who knows, maybe these were especially demanding or had nice scenery. May well mean nothing.


"Practice runways for Male, Indian, Sri Lankan airports and 1 US military base found on seized flight simulation software."


Do MAS fly to any of these runways? Has he ever flown to any of these runways?

Curiously I have been known to go to Google Earth and examine a particular area before visiting it :)

selfin 18th Mar 2014 14:40


Originally Posted by GlueBall
Obidiah post #5709 ...can be associated with practical logic, because normal, average reasonable people can one day be overcome with life's challenges, snap, and come off the rails. ...

If we suppose Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah intelligently masterminded the disappearance of his own aircraft in connection with his political views, then we must consider him sufficiently intelligent to keep the world entertained during his trial. A suicide scenario, involving the murdering of 238 innocent people, is far less of an effective end game than a high profile criminal trial.

Secondly, the steps taken to disappear appear to have been premeditated so it is less convincing to believe it was commissioned by an "average reasonable person coming off the rails."

oldoberon 18th Mar 2014 14:41

guys
WHO, WHY, WHERE, HOW.

The only thing that is relevant right now is WHERE, the rest can wait

FE Hoppy 18th Mar 2014 14:44


G-ARVH We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.
How long was it from take off to hull loss?
What altitude?


How did a smouldering fire outside the pressure hull keep burning with enough intensity to burn through the pressure hull as the aircraft cruised at altitude?

Where is the wreck?

How did it keep pining for 6 hours?

Do yourself a favour and pop this in the bobbins file.

Blake777 18th Mar 2014 14:46

Wild Goose
 
I realise that the Malaysians are never going to say, but I'm thinking recent talk of very low altitude/terrain mapping may be them trying to explain discrepancies in their primary radar data. Like - why they picked up an unidentified aircraft at some points but not others (land over Malay Peninsula).

There is a video of a 777 re-enacted flight in the New Straits Tines where there was no secret that the Malaysians were toying with terrain mapping to "recreate primary radar and satellite data". Reading between the lines it's obvious the aircraft got through their defences that night.

Dak Man 18th Mar 2014 14:50

Maldives
 
Possible sighting in Maldives

Malaysian Airlines MH370: live - Telegraph

AnQrKa 18th Mar 2014 14:52

Murder/Suicide generally has no political motivation. This could be such a case. Instead of the lone nutter in the mall with an assault rifle, take your life along with 240 new friends in a jet.

Its happened before.

IcePack 18th Mar 2014 14:54

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...let-fires.html

Now theirs a thought:eek:

India Four Two 18th Mar 2014 14:58


Just culture in action...
Capn Bloggs,

True, but in this case, Western culture.

overthewing and harryw,

I take your points, but going up the chain of command would have been the first thing to do and if that didn't work, a more discreet public announcement would have been less career-limiting.

onetrack 18th Mar 2014 15:00

The aircraft flew into the Southern section of the Indian Ocean until it ran out of motion lotion, that much seems to be the most likely scenario at this point - until further fact-backed info comes to hand.
Why else are there 5 Orions and a Poseidon searching that area as from tomorrow, local time? It's because nearly everything points to that spot.

Thus we can believe with a reasonable degree of certainty, that the aircraft was still fully flyable until the end. That puts a fire right out of the ball park.
Whether the aircraft flew on AP until it dropped out of the sky as part of a plan - or whether it did a Helios, we will only know when the wreckage is found.
I'm not normally a betting man, but I'll wager there's a very good chance some wreckage will be found in the next week or two.
One thing in favour of a recovery from the Indian Ocean is the area is deep enough for subs to operate, unlike the Gulf of Thailand.

As regards the military interception capabilities - you can spend $100B on the finest military equipment the U.S. or Russia or China can provide - but it's only as good as the abilities and motivation of the guys driving it.
In the case of numerous SE Asian countries, those abilities and motivation are currently lacking - and the reason being, there's no real elevated tensions or major military threats in the region.
A few riots and demonstrations in Thailand are just part of the run-of-the-mill life for these people.
Crony capitalism and nepotism rules, pay the bribes, get on with life. No-one's currently looking to invade anyone elses country.
A little skirmish or two over the Spratleys is no reason for Thailand, Malaysia or even Vietnam to be on full invasion alert.

As far as the Captain and FO go, I'll also lay some money we'll end up finding out these guys were heroes, not baddies.


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