Speculation
 

Speculation is part of the research and investigation process.
As long as you can't rely on conclusive evidence, you can only speculate based on the few ascertained hard facts.

That said, if ACARS do not indicate any mulfunction, as reported by the airline, this is an additional indication of a sudden catastrophic event.

My two cents.

Lost in Saigon -

Yeah, to me hearing "mumbling" buried in static isn't any sort of positive connection. As you say, it could have been another aircraft, and even if it was the right flight, no actual meaningful information was exchanged.

The lack of debris bothers me. Unless they're looking in the wrong place, if there was a bomb or a breakup, it seems that there should be a fairly large debris field. It's been daylight for awhile now, and yet no reports of debris, and no one claiming to have seen a fireball or other explosion.

What if the pilot attempted a ditching? As I recall, when Sully landed in the river, there was little debris other than the rafts and life jackets. If the plane was ditched, and for some reason the passengers were unable to get out before it sank, would that explain the lack of debris?

You seem to want it all want it now. Are you gen. Y?

Seems an inane and frustrated comment so far into this thread and adds absolutely zero to the discussion. Just what contribution would you be making to aviation if you had this factual/concrete information other than to inject some hind-sighted speculative comment for all of us plane spotters and wannabe pilots to read.

Does anyone know about the last reported tracking? Was it primary radar? SSR? ADS-B?

The reports say "radar" but lots of laymen throw that term around generically.

Re: post 528
 

I wonder about the credibility of the Captain who was quoted as saying he had a conversation:

"He said those on the same frequency at the time would have heard the exchange.

This, he said, would include vessels on the waters below."

The Maritime Mobile Service uses frequencies in the range 150-160 MHz using Frequency Modulation, and well as some HF SSB. The aeronautical service uses frequencies between 108 and 132 MHz, using Amplitude Modulation, as well as some HF SSB.

The HF SSB frequencies are not in common between the services, unless we are talking about 2182 or 5680 kHz, the distress frequencies.

Two aircraft half an hour apart at 35,000 feet should be able to talk very clearly on VHF, where the boats below would not be listening (unless military). However I wonder why he would be using HF if VHF was adequate?

Good point. What about debris from a plunge? Strange nothing is floating about though thinking about the Brazil crash...

Sully landed in daylight. I am not aware of any successful night ditching of a passenger jet at sea.
Just my .02 worth.

I will be surprised if a fisherman did not see something , the sea is littered with powerful lights at night , think its related to squid fishing . Maybe someone knows something out there but has no way of communicating it .

Onetrack said The Fedex MD11 where the jumpseat riding FE tried to take control was flown way past the barberpole and had substantial damage, but was still able to be landed.

I remember watching a doco about the design and build of the B777 and the wing structural test was very impressive as it allowed something like a 6m flex up and down before failing. My guess is it would be pretty robust.

Doesn't seem to fit the no radio situation.

Think of the Gol 737 flight after collision. Pilots were probably under too high of G load to operated anything other than the yoke or pedals if that. Aero forces broke the tail off, but it was still in large intact pieces until ground impact.

It's still a large search area, so lack of debris reports less than 2 days after search started I think is not unexpected. It's hard to be patient after something like this.

The debris is there. They just haven't found it yet. The two "Oil Slicks" they think they found may not be from MH370 either.

Really, at this point we know almost nothing other than the aircraft has gone missing while cruising at 35,000' without a distress signal of any kind.

Everything else is speculation.

Not the first time in this accident reporting that people have been misquoted...

Xiamen Daily, a relatively reliable chinese newpaper has reported another idenitity dismatch (name and passport no didn't match) was found on the boarding list, according to the exit&entry administration authority of Xiamen city.

A different media also reported they found the original owner of doubtful passport number was at home (at China) and didn't go aboard recently. (The second news has not been confirmed by China authority yet.)

WRT to crew incapacitation; the aircraft was shown steady at 35000 feet so presumably the auto pilot had been engaged not long after departure. Crew incapacitation at this point would mean the aircraft simply flew on at 35,000 till fuel exhaustion.

This Aviation Herald report has the crew in contact with ATC as well so incapacitation at that point can be ruled out. The report states that both radar and radio contact was lost around 0122 local.

It will be interesting to see primary and secondary radar traces from that point on. The lack of transponder information from then on points to either massive electrical failure, or deliberate switching off.

stolen passports
 

I've followed this thread and enjoyed everyone's insight. I just wanted to add this to the mix:

They are reporting an additional 2x possible stolen passports being used on the flight.


Two more Europeans passengers with suspect identities onboard missing MH370 - The Malaysian Insider

I can not believe that the stolen passports are a red herring.

Does not the absence of debris pretty much eliminate the various in flight breakup options?
No in flight breakup and no Acars suggests purposeful action rather than accident.

Uncommanded reverse thrust in flight...
 

possible or not on the 777?

Just throwing this out there...

In the crash of MI185 at Palembang of a 737 in 19 Dec 1997, the crash site had very little debris. The aircraft apparently went into a steep dive and plunged into the palembang river. There were some debris that were on the surface (due to the inflight breakup) and surrounding dry land but at the impact area, most of it went straight into the riverbed due to the immense speed. Pilot suicide was concluded by the NTSB but the Indonesian government official report could not definitively state it as a concrete finding. A group of families took their own action to sue the manufacturer of a part which commands the rudder and was awarded some settlement (in USA courts). The vid is available on youtube.

If there is anything to take from this incident, it would be that the high speed of impact will leave few floating debris. Any that were generated during the breakup would be scattered over a wide area and very difficult to find (compared to a narrow river). As for the lack of comms and silence in the cockpit, apparently the MI185 incident captain had a history of disabling the CB to the CVR which was NTSB's key link to the suicide theory. Though investigators also revealed that there was a history of problems with the power to the Black boxes in the preceding flights.

Really hope to find out what happened soon so that the families can get some closure.

Two more Europeans passengers with suspect identities onboard missing MH370
 

Two more Europeans passengers with suspect identities onboard missing MH370

Regards the above post, it's almost unanimously accepted that was a case of pilot suicide something that is primarily disputed in Indonesia.

I think the only supposition with a probable outcome is that debris will be found.