TCAS
 

I am SLF, so please forgive if question is dumb. I would like to know if TCAS screen images are recorded by flight data recorders , even though they may not trigger an alert? Is it possible that any aircraft in the region might have picked up TCAS data showing the Malaysian flight and it lies in their FDR ? I know this is clutching at straws, but at this point, we don't have much straw around.

No.
Transponder was switched off anyway, so no other A/C would have seen it on their TCAS.

ELT!
 

The ELT is dual VHF (121.5mhz) and satelite encoding 406mhz. The VHF signal might be out of range in the open ocean but the 406mhz signal will be received by satellite from anywhere on the surface of the planet.

Network providers don't like the high-speed cell transitions from flying mobile phones. Nor do the tower antennas broadcast strongly upwards. But there's no technical reason why a signal can't be obtained aloft.

The whispering WSJ "sources", which could be "imagination" can surely suggest where these 4-hours of supposed post-disappearance signaling came from.

Ground stations will have a signal strength measure, and if you look at the power pattern of a 100-m antenna in geostationary orbit, you'll see where it could have been swept up from by any Not widely-Reknowned Organization - about a 50 mile patch.

Jon Ostrower, Aerospace & Boeing beat reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is stating that the last ping from the missing aircraft to satellites was 5 hours after it went missing and was from over water.

He's holding firm to this claim. He says he does not know the exact location, but as that ping includes GPS, speed and alt data, he says there will be those that do know.

US is sending a ship to the Indian Ocean to search a very specific spot.

Based on the White House satellite data contribution to the discussion on the possible fate of the aircraft, perhaps deleted posts ( including my own) proposing a due west course ( ?intentionally) outside of radar coverage with a final demise in the mid or west Indian ocean ( to fuel range) might be reinstated as reasoned contributions to the discussion!.

If this search was easy to solve with conventional thinking given the existing deployed assists, it would have been.

The thesis is an intentional act by a well informed person/persons in sole control of the flight deck. The Egypt air accident of the US east coast would be a similar category event.

I'm slowly beginning to think the same.

Previous pilot suicides involving a simple nose dive have always been found out and published, invalidating any insurance claims the suicide was supposed to cause.

So, perhaps, just perhaps, the desperate person in this case tried to be cunning and take the plane somewhere it'll never be found, thus ensuring any insurance they took out pays up?

Just as valid a theory as all the others!

Logical analysis of the MAS370/MH370 facts
 

To enable analysis of MAS370, we should just look at facts and completely disregard subjective reports.

- 9M-MRO disapeared from radar at 35000 feet, over waypoint IGARI, at 02:40 local time (Malaysian time).
- Transponder was switched off at that point
- Plane had full load of fuel for 8 hour flight + IFR reserves to PEK (Beijing).
- plane was flying at cruise speed (.82 Mach).
- plane satcom system was pinging INMARSAT, used for CPDLC/ACARS, for about 4 hours afterwards.
- 9M-MRO had no HFDL onboard (only Malaysian A380's have HFDL); it only carried VHF ACARS and SATCOM(CPDLC).

Analysis:
- If the transponder was switched off, it was to avoid detection;

- With transponder off, SSR (secondary Radar) goes off but primary radar can still detect 9M-MRO;

- At the point of transponder turning off, plane was 35000, at IGARI, equidistant between Vietnam and Malaysia. At that altitude its signal could be seen as far as 242 miles (theoretical limit - straight

line), well within Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand;

- If 9M-MRO was trying to avoid detection, it would have to descent fast to less than 5000 feet. Even at 5000 feet, signal could be heard at 86 miles, and at 1000 feet, 38 miles (theoretical maximums);

- The width of the sea channel between Vietnam and Malaysia is 220 miles, 110 miles each from IGARI. If the plane flew at or less than 5000 feet, it would avoid primary radar detection;, if it stayed in the center of the channel;

- at 5000 feet, maximum speed of a loaded 777 is around 280 KTIAS. If the plane emitted pings then it flew 280*4, not 480 * 4, a total of 1120 miles;

- To avoid detection, it would have to stay away from land, where primary radars are located. Primary radars are mainly military. It would thus NOT fly towards the Indian ocean, since doing so would place
the flight over Thailand and Myanmar and primary radars;

- If the intent was to fly towards the Andaman sea, a different flight would have to have been chosen. But between 22:00 and 01:00 (local), more than 16 flights leave Singapore and Kuala Lumpur headed for Europe, thus it would be very difficult to take over a 777 in the midst of so many flights, flying similar tracks to European Destinations, most of them within view of each other;

- The flight path from KUL towards PEK only has MAS370, ETD around midnight with the next flight towards similar destination succeded or preceeded more than 1 hour either way, thus no other flight would witness the event visually;

- 9M-MRO would fly over the sea, towards East and then veer Northeast;

- In order to avoid detection completely, passengers cellphones would have to be collected and turned off, all of them, or a cellphone jammer turned on. Even one cellphone left on would register onto a
network thus giving the location away. Flying at 5000 feet, means that there is a good chance that a cellphone would register onto a network, if 9M-MRO flew near an island with cellphone service;

- thus 9M-MRO would have to fly towards a remote island with no cellphone service and with a runway or area to land on water;

- US Airways flight that landed onto the Hudson river tells us that a 777 or 767 can land on water;

- there are literally thousands of islands in the area (http://goo.gl/maps/xYxJ8) and most of them disputed by many countries;

- at 06:40am (02:40 plus 4 hours), there is twilight and at 07:04 sunrise, therefore plenty of light;


To get additional facts, computers of the various suspect individuals onboard would have to be analyzed for any activity (browser history, software installed). Such data can give additional information on

where the plane may have been headed.

- The CARGO manifest would have to be released to see of there was material that could be a motive.

Whoever did this, did not realize the SATCOM system was pinging, thereby giving us a clue that the plane was flying for an additional 4 hours.

Time will tell.

This incident shows a a 777 bus failure and fire in MEC .

Luckily the flight was on the ground and shut right engine down, and safely de-planed. Had this bus failire and subsequent MEC fire occured in flight at altitude the consequences could it seems have been catastrophic. Look at the pictures in the detailed investigation link at bottom .... seems easy to envision after the AC bus failure and fire began that it could lead to a burn thru and rapid depressurization.

In the interim the cockpit would likely have smoke, and some of all of the flight deck instruments, comms, transponder etc may have become inoperation.

I'm purely guessing that critical flight controls are on a separate bus with backup power and multiple redundancy

Could the radar sweeps from the predictive wind shear system installed in the weather radar have been picked up by anyone? The system is always emitting radar beams...the PWS cannot be switched off by the crew.

Pings
 

Previously reported: ACARS will store messages until it can establish contact.

It tries later by sending a ping. If there is no response it tries again later.

Previously reported: it tries every half hour.

Other communications devices will have different retry times - mostly much shorter. The airwaves will be full of pings on all digital frequencies but normally only the ones that establish contact by getting a response are then followed by data.

Service assets acknowledge pings addressed to them (thereby establishing the link) and service the ensuing data.

Surveillance assets potentially record the pings, any responses and any ensuing data.

Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
 

Plot thickens!!:

Military radar-tracking evidence suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown across the Malay peninsula towards the Andaman Islands, sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints - indicating it was being flown by someone with aviation training - when it was last plotted on military radar off the country's northwest coast.

The last plot on the military radar's tracking suggested the plane was flying toward India's Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they said.

Waypoints are geographic locations, worked out by calculating longitude and latitude, that help pilots navigate along established air corridors.

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight, with 239 people on board, hundreds of miles off its intended course from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

"What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards," said that source, a senior Malaysian police official.

All three sources declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to the media and due to the sensitivity of the investigation.

Officials at Malaysia's Ministry of Transport, the official point of contact for information on the investigation, did not return calls seeking comment.

Malaysian police have previously said they were investigating whether any passengers or crew had personal or psychological problems that might shed light on the mystery, along with the possibility of a hijacking, sabotage or mechanical failure.

The comments by the three sources are the first clear indication that foul play is the main focus of official suspicions in the Boeing 777's disappearance.

As a result of the new evidence, the sources said, multinational search efforts were being stepped up in the Andaman Sea and also the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese Xinhua news agency is now throwing up another possibility. They claim that a Chinese research group on seismology and physics of the earth's interior, detected a "sea floor event" at 2:55AM local time (doesn't say whether Vietnamese or Malaysian local time, but we'll presume Vietnamese) that threw up an "earthquake wave".
They claim it could have been MH370 hitting the sea in that spot - which spot has been claimed to be 116km NW of the last recorded location of the aircraft. The area is reputed to be normally "non-seismic".

"Seafloor event" possibly linked to MH370: Chinese researchers - Xinhua | English.news.cn

My opinion? A possibility, but unlikely. After nearly 7 days of SAR work, plus wind and wave action, surely some debris would have been found in this area of the Gulf of Thailand, by fisherman at least.

There is a world earthquake map, showing earthquakes over the last 7 days - but only magnitude 4.5 and greater.
A B777 hitting the water wouldn't produce anything near a 4.5 magnitude measurement, but it would likely be recorded as a verifiable tremor.

http://earthquakestoday.info/

If it was tracked to be flying towards Andaman Island, then there might be a possibility of terrorism angle. Especially in light of recent intelligence report by government of India:

Remnants of LTTE trying to make Andaman and Nicobar islands safe haven? :\

And no interception by the Thai (Gripen, F-16, F-5) and/or Malayan (Su-30, MiG-29, F-18, F-5) air forces? Modern jet fighters in their inventory and no corresponding surveillance/fighter control infrastructure in place? Very hard to believe...

Andamans
 

The Andamans themselves would not be five hours flying time from when the aircraft stopped transmitting.

Plus, if the Americans indeed DO have all the data they claim (GPS altitude etc.) then if the Pinger is activated every 30 minutes, they must KNOW the location of the aircraft plus or minus 250 nm? Which would explain why they are sending assets to the Indian Ocean.

Yep, I'm sure they do. But you're looking for a 200' x 209' aircraft in a 250NM search square - and it's in pieces, and 90% of it has sunk after 7 days. Good luck with that. :(

http://cdn.lowyat.net/wp-content/upl...r200_300lr.gif

Why bother "kidnapping" a B777 with pax to "hide it" before "using it elsewhere"?

Much easier booking a cargo widebody, it would come to your place, pick you up and off you go.....

If god forbid you were of 'a mind' to crash a plane into the deep blue ocean and never be found, as some have speculated here, I would suggest that you would have no need or desire to follow way points.

This indicates some other motive and could well explain what we all thought were bizarre initial claims by 'well placed and informed' experts that the plane might have been taken over to be used for some other purpose.

You presume a threat. If there is no assessed threat there is no reason to maintain aircraft on alert.

For instance, in Hungary, early '90s, their major air defence operations centre was not operational overnight. Their air defence aircraft were on something like 30 minutes notice as the geography made any shorter notice period unnecessary.