@ tartare in #2634 (resp to WR in #2629)
Thanks for post. Disclaiming, on my part, specific knowledge of satellite orbital parameters. But carrying on the logic chains: .... point earlier was made or asserted that timing of release of imagery by PRC can be understood with background of time it took to review and analyze what their birds saw. Another factor asserted relative to lapse of time was need to adjust resolution of released imagery to protect against disclosure of asset capabilities (though this, as a timing factor, has fallen into a teakettle of pro's and con's). Your post noted high-density array of assets in the subject region. If that is affirmative, and I have no reason to question it (see, disclaimer, above), then here is a further item: to extent satellite and other coverage is so thick and sophisticated, does it not follow that, (i) PRC assets were able to be surveyed immediately upon news of major airliner incident underway, and (ii) PRC had reason to leap forward and find the facts - precisely because it (the region) is one of such interest? So (and no I don't know enough about these assets to have tried to joke about it) if no reason existed for the birds to have to be moved, then does it not follow they had the imagery pretty early on? So on these premises - specifically on this chain of inferences and explicitly disclaiming any speculative purported knowledge - I'm amending my post in #2629: to extent PRC had imagery quite early on, maybe Uncle made a po-lite request to do the data dump thing? Again tartare, thanks for talking this over.

HappyAs - No, an exploding crew oxygen bottle, starting and feeding an electrical fire, has a much higher likelihood than a cargo fire, of putting out the comms and transponder feed within a very short time.

Re weather balloons:

Depends on the type of balloon being released and general conditions but on an average day an 800gm balloon with radiosonde attached would obtain 34-37km, 350gm balloon also with radiosonde attached approx 26-28km and a 100gm balloon wind-only flight around 17-20km.

Size wise, the 350 and especially 800gm balloons at burst are around the size of a small house at burst.

Hope this helps

I am beginning to think whether Malay authorities are even acting on the leads provided to them.

How come China is revealing the information online not sharing directly with Malay authorities.. how come they don't pay any head to McKay's (oil rig worker) email.

IMHO they should be more transparent and forthcoming than just giggling during the PCs.

I'd like to say something about the lack of comms. As pilots, we are always taught to do the following steps in any emergency:
1) Fly the aircraft, i.e. regain control of the aircraft
2) Communicate, tell someone. Mayday calls need not be made on 243 or 121.5, switch only when time permits
3) orientate and subsequent actions.

However many times pilots train in the simulator, when an actual emergency happens, especially in the most benign portion of the flight, there is usually the mental inertia/shock to realise what is happening. We see this in MANY accidents and often wonder how a seemingly simple emergency can cause the inaction or wrong actions by the crew to worsen the recovery actions.

I'd been part of several accident investigations and this is replayed many times. Even in minor incidents, pilots may be unwilling to call out for a simple reason, they don't want to unnecessarily raise alarms. Many have to be taught to call out first, and downgrade the emergency later.

This link is an Australian depiction of the original flight path, the location of the debris shown in the Chinese satellite images and the location of the oil rig from where Mike Mackay says he saw a burning aircraft.

http://media.news.com.au/nnd//38883f.../assets/01.jpg

@tdracer

The special condition was announced Nov 18, 2013. A few days later Teledyne announced certification of their Airborne Wireless LAN for the 777. This AWLU appears to have been available for other aircraft for some time, and appears it is installed in 787 aircraft among others.

I agree these systems are not likely in operation in 777's currently. I don't think you can definitively say aircraft systems and passenger systems are not linked in any way ... that was the specific concern addressed in the special conditions - that they could be.

I agree its highly unlikely anyone could access from PAX area or outside, however the system does have WiFi, Cellular and similar access and as other have noted just about any system can be hacked today. It DOES contain a flash card as well - and there are Wifi enabled flash cards.

Again I agree its unlikely the public can access, however, workers most certainly could, having access to the MEC. And while I again agree it wouldn't be easy, it certainly does seem plausible that someone with access to the system could conceivably manipulate it.

I don't think its relevant to this incident, but it IS an interesting conversation on its own.

On the other hand the electrical failure in the MEC, which has occurred in 777's in the past, DOES make a great deal of sense to this scenario, as I posted here.

onetrack - That is a possibility, however you would then expect to see debris in the vicinity of the last know position if the fire was fast and catastrophic. If this aircraft had time to reach the Malacca Straits the pilots may have turned the transponder / ACARS off themselves as they struggled to fly the aircraft to a controlled ditching before being overcome.

Stanley:
 

That's not what I was taught. At all. Ever.

In fact, it was along the lines of:

1. Aviate
2. Navigate
3. And last of all, time permiting, Communicate.

Actually the possible crash site location would be roughly consistent both with the report by the oil rig worker and with this report by other witnesses in Marang.

Jurisdiction (in re upon, and under, the high seas)
 

Poster win_faa in #2632 leads thread into questions of jurisdiction, proceeding from settled provisions of the ICAO formal juridical architecture. Query, do not the generalized disputes as to claims in this region undercut the efficacy of ICAO's juridical structure in dealing with the legal dimensions of this still-unfolding incident?

Quite a while ago (almost 2 thousand posts earlier), this community member questioned whether territorial assertions by PRC might hamper the SAR efforts or make such efforts more complicated (see post #386).

I'm more than fifty percent convinced that the juridical scheme of the present system may not be in the best overall interest of the international civil aeronautics and aviation order. To wit, what SPECIFICALLY happened to this flight is a set of unknowns with tremendous importance to Boeing and the T7 program, and thus and by extension, to the U.S. and no less, the international order within which civil aeronautical and aviation take place. This is no assertion against ICAO - rather it is an advocacy for the question whether the above-referenced international order has progressed to a point where a higher order of trans-national juridical concept would apply.

So it's not only about territorial disputes and assertions impacting SAR, but also about the legal efficacy of an ICAO juridical structure which long, long predated September the Eleventh - yet neither anticipated the way the world would change, nor provided the legal tools Counsel need to get things to happen the right way, make them happen fast, as in, "give me summa that fancy lawyer-talkin'".....

If this is off the mark and the world civil aeronautics and aviation legal framework needs no significant adjustment, this is to urge community members to explain.

Link from Roving's post above.

I reckon if this is the wreckage it probably went into the water around the "km" of 387km, .

Earlier in the week there was a post showing the prevailing currents and that would have taken the wreckage from my assumed crash point to the location area

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BikXd9ECcAAUMJt.jpg

Yes I Agree but perhaps a little higher as the oil rig sighting was 265-275 (270 is direct west)

At 387 km from Chinese satellite image to oil rig a problem arises:

An object at 35,000' would be below the horizon of the observer on the rig.

Isn't there a relatively simple process of deduction re: the possible primary radar sighting of an aircraft over the Malacca Strait, I.e. if it wasn't MH370, then what aircraft was it? That issue is a sub-story in itself.

If it was another aircraft with a low radar sig, did it play a part in the demise of MH370, either intentionally or unintentionally? Did one plane limp off west and the other limp off east? Was it fast moving from east to west and collided with MH370?

Are the Malaysians behaving like they're under duress from another nation (China or the US) with regards to what they're comfortable saying publicly about what actually happened?

It's just another theory, but speculation will continue 'til some hard facts emerge.

I am pretty sure the americans are fully aware of Chinese satellite capabilities


These pieces look too big to be wreckage of a 777, but what the hell else could it be, its promising but i am fully expecting to be "let down" again

Re: StormyKnight and Mike McKay
 

Thanks Stormy Knight for putting up that graphic.

This is very much as Mike McKay described his observation in the email.

From his description the course was maybe not so direct from last known location. Maybe the plane paralleled the coast (consistent with two sets of eyewitness/earwitness reports) then turned more NE.

His email described the burning plane as coming toward him (or away) on a heading somewhat crossing the normal flight paths and contrails. I believe he even guessed the angle from his rig.

This is sadly fitting together.

I've been wondering that from the beginning. Loss of contact with MH370 occurred at or near waypoint IGARI, where three airways intersect.

My only question now on this line of investigation is what about Vietnamese Primary Radar?

Although there has been much criticism of Malaysia's planning and coordination of the SAR, the planning is only as good as its execution and this Reuter's note suggests that whatever the Satellite images are, it was the Vietnamese who searched that grid reference. That is not surprising given it is within its territorial waters.



PHU QUOC ISLAND: Vietnam has already searched the area where Chinese satellites showed objects that could be debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 but a plane has been sent to check the area again, Vietnamese military officials said.

“We are aware and we sent planes to cover that area over the past three days," Deputy Transport Minister Pham Quy Tieu told Reuters. “Today a (military) plane will search the area again,” he said.

Another military official said Vietnam was waiting to see photographs taken by a Chinese satellite on Sunday in waters northeast of Kuala Lumpur and south of Vietnam in order to identify the exact location for further inspection. – Reuters