More likely the "two hours out" statement.......

Just as an aside, on a course in the '80s about dealing with major incidents with numerous fatalities, one of the lectures was by Kentons, who at that time, and perhaps now, undertook the task of identifying victims from whatever remains were available at most of not all such events in the UK.

One of the many memorable things we learnt was the fact that in every such event, about 5% of the victims will be travelling under false identities, or secretly under their own identities, or otherwise are not quite what they appear to be. The speaker cited an amazing dance troupe of young girls, who turned out to be entirely male. Others were travelling on false passports, and on every flight, it seems, there is at least one gent with a lady not his wife/partner, who was supposed to be somewhere else entirely (the gent, not the lady).

So I wouldn't be too troubled or puzzled by this (I'm puzzled about why you are "troubled"); it's pretty much normal and doesn't mean anything.

Enos,

That would be my expectation, thanks for confirming that. So far however, nothing along these lines has been stated, while Malaysian has been pretty open with information so far.

I do wonder if that may be an indication that there are no data. In which case, the indication would be towards an event which cut power and datalinks pretty instantaneously.

Passports
 

There cannot be as many as more than 1% of fake passports in use around the world. So having more than that number on one flight looks like an organised event. How many more PAX from codeshare CSA booking will turn out to be bogus. How many bags transferred at KL?


This event looks like it originated in Southern China.

In theory, no. Those bags are supposed to be removed if the passenger doesn't actually board the airplane. But if one of the ground crew were to "look the other way" then it might be possible to sneak something on that way.

The one aspect that causes me to discount the terror possibility right now is that there has been no public claim of responsibility. Difficult to advance a cause through terror when no one knows who did it!

That repair
 

We've seen two theories advanced in previous posts that suggest a possible link between the accident and the 2012 wingtip incident and/or subsequent repair:

a) that the ground collision at Pudong caused undetected damage elsewhere in the wing structure that led to an incipient, possibly fatigue-related, subsequent failure

b) that an eventual failure of the repair itself led to aeroelastic flutter, which in turn caused the wing to fail

Personally, I don't buy (a), but either could account for the sudden inability of the crew to aviate, navigate or communicate.

Is there an aerodynamicist in the house?

According to the Australian, Malaysian Airlines had massive restructure problems with management problems, Govt and union interference. It must be catching. Still nothing, other than either a massive hull or wing failure, rather unlikely in that aircraft, suicide, again highly unlikely, in the Skipper anyway, and obviously if he ran out of gas, again highly unlikely, he would have had plenty of glide time to have a chat, and prepare for a ditching. This is a huge concern to all in the industry, hull/wing failure, fuel failure, suicide, bomb, missile. They need to know quickly and I know I am stating the bleedin obvious, but anything this untidy is of great concern to all involved in the industry, and a constant worry to all airline families, as their sons, daughters, partners, siblings, take to the air daily. May they find her today.

phiggsbroadband

Quote:

---

If you scroll half way down the following link, what is the 19:51 report, at N 22.6397 and E 114.0839? (somewhere in the HongKong area, doing 511 kts.

---

The link seems to take you to the flight dated 20140306, not 20140307, as the one in question.

In Russian. Stolen Passport

This one is to be confirmed by Russia anyway. Italian and Austrian have been confirmed by authorities, but not the Russian one.

If they confirm this, I will start thinking that this is not a coincidence.

Two stolen passports, and knowing the security in KL... doesn't look sospicious for me yet. Many holes in the cheese and they know.

Datalink has a habit of dropping off and back on fairly regularly so possible that telemetry not sent. Otherwise indicates that aircraft broke up in midair.

I am also concerned, but more troubled and puzzled by dozens of aircraft and hundreds of trawlers and ships not finding any flotsam or wreckage - in a whole 12 hours of daylight. Most odd.

"Descend to 500' and take me to N Korea" ?

I know people have said it's nothing to do with the passport thing. But with talk of a third stolen passport you have to wonder.

Also 7 pax were booked on the code share flight, maybe they expected to be on China Southern Airlines, not Malaysian?

Several single nationalities onboard as well, "1 each from Russia, Italy, Taiwan, the Netherlands and Austria" might be nothing, but...

I think I've read this whole thread but may have missed this if it has been asked already.

Would Rolls Royce have been monitoring the engines minute by minute during flight?

Just SLF and curious.

Last time I sneaked into China....
 

A question about the pax on false passports: would not a reasonably rational official with responsibility in the civil aeronautics and/or the airline sector expect that someone sneaking into the People's Republic of China - using a stolen passport - select some mode of transport other than a T7 flight? I mean if you reverse the sequential order of the facts (a favorite law prof and attorney trick) and tell such an official that "we" (loosely defined, here) "know three individuals appear to have made an attempt to enter the PRC using stolen passports", it would be quite unexpected for the postulated official to exclaim, "oh, I bet they boarded a T7 flight from Kuala Lumpur."

What is the state of airborne maritime surveillance in support of the sea surface search? It's not as robust as, say, having a RCAF P-3 Orion tasked to the search effort - is it?

I don't have an S-3 in my hands, flying it, but whatever old salt sea sense I have left, I'm sensing something seems like foul play. Just an attitude at this point in time.

P.S. Cross-reference post 459 .... an actually chilling scenario. No comment from YT as to whether any known data is seen as consistent with #459 (yt yours truly).

I saw reports earlier that an oil slick had been spotted during the search for MH370. It's interesting to compare the image of it on the BBC website (and elsewhere) to images of Trichodesmium (aka "Sea Sawdust") because to my untrained eye they look remarkably similar which makes me think the "oil slick" is a false alarm :sad:

I'd suggest the "oil" is the lighter grey streaks on the top right corner of the BBC picture and NOT the yellow stuff in the middle. It's just a poorly centred photo.

EY B777 Fires
 

Foul play?

This reminded me of the recent EY B777 that diverted into CGK with toilet fires. Could there be a reason why the B777 was/is being selected? I have noticed that on other aircraft types the toilets are normally located at the front and back, but vary rarely directly over the wing spar or centre tank. On other aircraft a device detonated at the rear toilets might be manageable especially considering it is so close to the LRBL.

Could the toilets in the mid cabin of the B777 somehow allow access to the centre fuel tanks through the floor, and if so could some crazy individuals have set this alight without need for anything more than an ignition source?

Question - is there any way that an electrical failure could cause both the crew and the aircraft itself to lose communications, despite the aircraft (at the time, at least) being otherwise intact?

No, would require at least 3 separate systems to fail simultaneously.

FR24 vs FlightAware
 

I've been following this thread throughout the day and much has been made of differing position reports being quoted so thought I'd clarify a couple of things, as speculation continues a day after the event.

As far as I'm aware:
- both these systems rely on users/enthusiasts uploading ADS-B data but they have different users/sources so don't cover the whole globe equally.
- my experience of FR24, living under several airways and Gatwick/Heathrow arrival and departure routes, is that it is very accurate for say 99% of time
- when FR24 has no data in a region, it just doesn't show any aircraft
- as we have several aircraft tracks from FR24 in the general vicinity before and after this incident we can assume MAS370 was more or less where it was displayed as being while at FL350, with the likely exception of the last few miles when the ADS-B was probably transmitting garbage or nothing at all
- when FlightAware has no data it uses the filed flight plans to guesstimate where aircraft may be. The track lines are dashed in those cases whereas they're solid lines if they have ADS-B input. It's not unusual for the guesstimate to be several hundred miles away from where FR24 is showing an aircraft to be. Indeed FlightAware may still say that an aircraft is hundreds of miles and hours from landing when it's on final approach because it lacks the ADS-B data available to FR24 !

That said, all ADS-B transmissions are from the aircraft themselves calculating where they are and this may or may not be exact, indeed many an FR24 aircraft has "landed" several miles from its target airport after a long flight because of these estimates - the A40 north of Heathrow is very popular. This can also be from conflicting data received from several users I believe.

Finally and a comment on this thread, I lost a good friend in a flying incident last year and appreciate all the good efforts to shed light on what will be a devastating day for those involved today. Rumour, supposition, insight, speculation and deduction are what makes PPrune so popular but please let's just try to keep the sniping at bay.

The likely impact area is relatively shallow water. The causes of this disaster will be far easier to discover than the challenges presented with AF447. Wreckage, victims, as well as the CVR and the FDR should be relatively easy to recover.

All will likely be known soon enough. My bet is that both the CVR and FDR terminate abruptly.

Don't worry. Vietnam doesn't have any of the venerable P-3; but they have several more modern aircraft, and patrol vessels. They're also equipped with Mark 1 eyeball sensors. No need to underestimate them.

An Orion is apparently participating in the search though, just like dozens of other aircraft and vessels, a US one based out of Japan, if that makes you sleep better. Yet, no RCAF aircraft at hand, unfortunately.

Shallow water
 

RobertS975,

Could you be more precise regarding water depth in the Gulf of Thailand ?

Several pages back I mentioned the 1993 WTC bomber who made a trial run using a fake identity.

Here is some more information on this: Philippine Airlines Flight 434 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(For you who don't want to click: Ramzi Yousef checks in, using a fake ID, on a one-stop flight to Japan, A -> B -> Japan. From point A to point B he arranges a bomb to explode the centre fuel tank. He departs at point B. During the flight to Japan the bomb explodes but doesn't penetrate the fuel tank [different model of aircraft]. Philippine police finds out the fake ID is really Mr Bomber and raids his appartment. Damning evidence of foul play, and Mr Bomber ends up in US prison. Plan was to blow up about 12 US airliners simultaneously.)

Now, this has to do with the terrorist angle of this missing mystery as this COULD have been a repeat of the above. Some people questioned why terrorists would choose a Malaysian airline... simple answer is "convenience". IF terrorists did this (AND WE DO NOT KNOW THAT YET) they might just have chosen this flight for plain convenience. Nothing to do with Malaysia or even China for that matter. Just as in the case with the Philippine airline.

But, to debunk my theory so noone believes it too much, remember that it would be plenty foolish to copy a previous trial run. I'm sure intelligence services aren't THAT easily fooled.

WhatsaLizad?

Yes, I would like that too.

But I hope I am informative enough with the terrorist angle. Like, IF (again: IF) this was a terrorist act, noone necessarily needs or wants to claim responsibility. Not if it is a trial run.

I also wish to point out that while secondary radar might show the plane as vanished, primary radar still gives information about its whereabouts. We need to keep attention to what they say about the primary radar. Vietnamese military are quite advanced so may have some information, we just need to wait for it.

I can't see any similarity with EA 990 or LAM 470. Both aircraft were tracked on radar when losing altitude. Not with MAS 370. Apparently the last secondary return available indicated an altitude of 38,000 feet, then nothing. This fact, if confirmed, is certainly disturbing and raises lots of questions, but more or less excludes any similarity with the aforementioned crash cases.

Splinter group operating on their own?? Who knows. Either way, an airliner is missing, seemingly with no trace :(

I would take the last 1 minute of data that everyone is talking about with a pinch of salt, to go from 35,000ft to 0ft in one minute would indicate a power on vertical dive.

I know the only thing that is important is that they find the wreckage and get the FDR and the FVR and establish what went on from there.

Fats

Within a radius of 20NM of 7N 104E the water depth on average is between 40 and 55 meters.

The surface current is weak and generally flowing in a SW direction at between 0.1 to 0.15 m/s.

There may well have been many fishing boat calls, but coordinating the calls and even to make sense of them, would be very difficult. Would many have recognised a disintegrated airliner going into the sea? Establishing reliability of the radio calls will take some while.

Water depth
 

Thanks mm43 for your feedback.

It means that once the crash (I guess that now nobody is doubting anymore about using that dreaded word) site is located, it won't take two years (ref. AF447) to get the recorders if thay have survived the event.

Here is a Nautical chart for the area.

Chart 93010

I've browsed the Vietnamese news sites. Google's translator is far from perfect, but very interesting anyway. The Thanh Nien site has some interesting data of the SAR operation:
- Apparently three MI-171 helicopters have been involved (02, 04 and 431) and temporarily based at Ca Mau at the coast. At 1710, one of them "discovered abnormalities in the oil slick Shoals Ca Mau, at the rig DK1-10 of about 50 km to the southwest." "As noted, the scope of oil slick is about 20 km. This is a very unusual phenomenon."

(I have not located the DK1-10 but believe it to be close inshore. This is probably unconnected to MH370).

- Two AN-26 search aircraft took off from Than Son Nat airport at the capital Ho Chi Minh, at 1430 and 1500 local time.
- There is a video taken aboard AN-26 number 261 including also the "oil slick" picture widely discussed here. The flight was apparently a very unusual flight for the air force, judging by the fact it had a Lieutenant Colonel, Vu Duc Long, as captain and two further Lieutenant Colonels aboard.
- At 1610 it reached the search region and descended to 2400m (7800ft). They could not descend lower due to Malaysian aircraft searching at the lower altitude of 1500m. It returned to base at 1820.
- Tomorrow morning there will be two flights in the search area.

Here's a picture of today's defined route:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...trunghieu6.jpg

- 2 ships, HQ954 and HQ637, are also on their way to the search area.

I have tried to make sense of the "oil slick" picture but will not make any speculations. Judging from other oil slick pictures, they look very different depending on sun angle, cloudiness and other factors.

Edit: clarify

There are some 'organizations' that are known to use stolen passports of various nationalities that refuse to 'confirm or deny' knowledge of incidents. Also suddenly realizing that the aircraft was Malaysian and not China Southern would affect the wish for self-publicity.

Somebody mentioned the plane possibly being hijacked. Hijackers could have demanded transponders off and "low" flying. Primary radar can tell more.

If there really is no debris in the water, this could be one of many leads for investigators.

Depending on the wish of the hijackers the plane could have ended up anywhere. A Nigerian (OR was it Ethiopian?) plane was commanded to Australia but of course ran out of fuel and crashed in the ocean.

This does seem far fetched because hijackers usually want to speak to someone, unless they intend to do serious harm like 9/11.

But as many other have posted... the sudden and unannounced disappearance is unsettling....

It may prove interesting on whether the passengers with the stolen passports originated in Kuala Lumpur, or connected from another flight(s), and their seat assignments.

A few people have asked questions about the depth in the likely impact area. The Gulf of Thailand is relatively shallow, and the depths in the area of interest are around 50m. When the debris is located, a full salvage a la TWA 800 is possible.

Specifically, the depth in the area of last radar contact is a fairly even 51m. It is five miles due west of a 1945 wreck on chart 93018 (which after brief googling seems a probable misplacement of the USS Lagarto wreck) for the navigationally challenged. Doubtless someone can be bothered extrapolating a parabolic trajectory from last known position to give a more accurate estimation of debris field position.

Chart 93010

Chart 93018

(edit: someone beat me to it)

Thread Review
 

Lots of interesting speculations. Let's review a few.

1. It appears the plane was lost in a catastrophic occurrence at altitude.
2. If so, did local fishing boats see anything?
(Early posts indicated lots of boats, but with poor communications capabilities)
3. If a catastrophic occurrence was it:
A. A bomb--would have to have been a good one and well placed.
1.Why has no one taken credit for it yet? (I know some speculations here)
B. Airframe failure? Does 777 have a pressure dome?
C. Descend and take me somewhere.
1. I think the reporting sites would show the a/c at 0 feet if transponder/other equipment made inoperative.
2. If this scenario, where is the plane?
D. Inflight collison with a practice radar intercept/drone/meteorite

China Visa
 

China normally requires a visa. These are carefully checked including matching the passport photo to the visa applicant.

There is a special no-visa 72 hour transit arrangement for some cities including Beijing. This requires an onward ticket to even get onto a flight to the city. The visa / onward ticket status of both stolen passports will be known to MAS and will be very interesting whatever it turns out to be

China 72-Hour Visa-free Transit in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenyang and Dalian

Search area
 

SaturnV

It's quite different from AF447 : potential area is maximum 400 km by 400 km in shallow waters (as per Wikipedia : mean depth is 45 meters and max depth is 80 meters Gulf of Thailand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).