Airblue down near Islamabad
 

BBC News reporting a passenger aircraft down in Pakistan, 150 people believed to be onboard.

Seems to be Air Blue, according to AP.

This earlier take

From BBC

"Reports are coming in that a plane has crashed in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
Initial information suggests it was flying from Turkey to Islamabad via Karachi with an estimated 150 people on board.
Pakistani television is showing images of smoke arising from a hillside in poor weather conditions.
A huge rescue effort has been launched. Details are still emerging."

Edit: Now reported as a Domestic Flight, crashed in a difficult to access area.

It's apparently Karachi to Islamabad.

-drl

Looking at the arrivals it looks like it is the Karachi flight despite reports saying the flight was inbound from Turkey.

ABQ-202 KHI-ISB Karachi Wednesday 09:30 Wednesday 09:30 Call 114

According to airblue's flight status page Flight 202 left Karachi and is still showing 'On time' for arrival in ISB.

BBC showing vision of fire in heavily wooded area. Reporting 152 on board.

Metar
 

oprn 280600z 05016kt 4000 Ra Few01st0 Sct030 Ovc100 Few030tcu 25/24 Q1006.8
oprn 280500z 09018kt 3500 Ra Sct010 Sct030 Ovc100 Few030 25/24 Q1006.9
oprn 280400z 05016kt 3500 Sct010 Sct030 Bkn100 Few030tcu 29/24 1006.7

Yes, the weather is cloudy and rainy but not particularly low visibility - looks like he may have failed to clear a ridge line. The burn pattern is consistent with that.

link.
BBC News - Passenger plane crashes in hills near Pakistan capital

Oh - can you explain that - I'm not au fait with burn patterns.

The crash site is apparently along one of the ridges to the NW of the airport. There is a typical-looking uphill fan of burned woods such as one finds in a CFIT into hilly terrain. Of course I am just thinking out loud, but given that it is monsoon season, CFIT is not an unreasonable speculation.

Reports on TV suggests there are survivors. 40 or so as of now.

MKS

Airblue down near Islamabad
 

Apparently an A321.

CNN reports 10 found alive. The site is indeed in the Margalla Hills Park N of the city. The TV from Pakistan says 5.

-drl

Bad Missed Approach
 

Hope there are some survivors, but it seems none, reports start saying the rescue services start recovering dead bodies.

story said the pilot being instructed by the tower to go around and to divert to Lahore which it should be pilot decision and instead of following standard missed approach procedure RWY30 "LEFT turn away from hills" the pilot executed RIGHT turn as if he is following SID to the south east.

AirBlue fly Manchester-Islamabad with a fuel stop in Trabzon (allegedly the world's longest A321 route), maybe that's where the confusion has crept in.

How that fits in with a KHI-ISB flight I don't know, although I see that the downed Airbus is now being reported as one of their A321s.

Looks like there were some witnesses.
List of passengers in plane crash in Islamabad released

Ugh that would be ugly, if they pranged it into a hill while reconfiguring after a go-around. I can't imagine a domestic pilot in Pakistan not knowing about these formidable parallel ridges near the airport. The hills look to be about 10-12 miles from the AP.

-drl

Ought not an enhanced GPWS prevent such accidents? Surely the crew must have had warning of the terrain ahead and not unaware of the rising ground ahead.

airblue
 

Was it a Pakistani pilot?
Maintenance of the aircraft history?
Any accident history?
Why has Pak defence ministry been told to look into the accident?

Captain was ex-PIA 747 skipper - just retired recently - so experienced no doubt about it. F/O was likely ex-airforce (dont quote me on that)

Airblue has been facing financial difficulties in the past - the status of their order of 14 new A320s is 'unknown'. Brand new A320 been parked at Tolouse for over a year, not delivered yet. And they have (or had) a total of 3 A321s, AP-BJA, BJB, BRJ plus 2 A319s. Down to 4 aircraft now sadly...........


edit - the ill fated aircraft was AP-BJB; ex D-ARFA, D-ALAN

Eye witness accounts from the link above;
The presence of survivors also suggests a lower energy crash.

Unfortunately, human error will never be eliminated, regardless of the level of experience.

The more experience we arrive at, the greater the awareness that this is so.

it seems that the flight originated from Manchester with fuel stop in Trabzon, via Karachi, then Islamabad with two missed approaches and then diversion to Lahore. Crew fatigue might played a role?

I suppose fatigue played a major role in that crash. The same crew was coming from MAN with a stop in Trabzon; so arriving in ISB they were exhausted; not a good start for an IMC approach, with terrain around: so:
- fatigue
- IMC / rain showers
- high ground

all well known causal / circumstantial factors for a CFIT.

FBW390

Airbus has the details on their "crisis page":

Registration AP-BJB, msn 1218, IAE V2533.

Originally delivered in 2000, leased to airblue in 2006, 34,000 hours, 13,500 flights.

That's all so far.


Bernd

I imagine that the same crew didn't operate all the way from Manchester? I doubt that this would be possible - even in Pakistan or any part of Asia. Or could it be?

AP-BJB
 

Further to speculation by earlier posters, it is unlikely that this flight originated in Manchester.

Last night's ABQ221 is reported to have left MAN at 22:28, operated by AP-BJA. If this information is confirmed, then AP-BJB was NOT operating the Manchester - Trabzon - Islamabad scheduled service.

Wikipedia site: Airblue Flight 202 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

on the Manchester - Trabzon - Islamabad route, airblue does a fuel stop plus a crew change at Trabzon. they have no shortage of crew infact the fleet is overcrewed.

the flights was ED202 from KHI to ISB. those hills are about 7NM north of the field

there are suggestions that he was doing a circle to land for 12 and by the looks of it they lost the field while breaking off to th right from the ILS. the impact point and height is in line with this. impact height is around 3000 feet (field elevation 1668) and crash site is 35 to 40 degree off runway 30. the hills are appx 7nm from the field

did my training out there, its not challenging as some might suggest.

sad day for aviation in Pakistan :(

Circle to land? OK. Then if you loose visual contact with the ground: go-around is mandatory!!
As well: I suppose this A321 was equipped with GPWS: then before reaching the hills the crew has a "" terrain-terrain pull up " warning: go-around is mandatory!!
Has a GA been initiated? too late? Not agressive enough?

FBW 390

reminder and correction:
 

On GPWS warning it is a memory item and not a GA :
AP off Side stick full aft TOGA pwr simultaneously
Spd brakes check retracted Wings:level

Generally the GPWS warning will be early enough to clear the obstacles /hills with this procedure which is a memory item, and of course mandatory.

FBW 390

@ FBW390
thats what im wondering as well.

also the terrain elevation is increasing as you go north of the field so they should have gotten the warning just over half way to the hills.

I don't understand how, rain or no, an experienced pilot can take a plane into a restricted flight area, and then directly into terrain, during broad daylight! Is this another FMC TOGA issue? And why cannot this plane clear a short, if undoubtedly steep ridge line?? Hard times for Airbus.

If you dont understand Desitter, then maybe you should wait until the facts come out rather than castigating Airbus :ugh:

deSitter: it has nothing to do with Airbus!!! IF the pilots don' t respond to a GPWS worning then it flies in the mountain; would it be A or B or else!
IF the GPWS is inop then be even more cautious to high ground! A or B ...
And FMC ( called FMGC in Airbus ) has nothing to do with TOGA pwr. If you put the throttles full fwd they are in the TOGA detent and TOGA pwr is applied. It works.

FBW390

deSitter:
experienced pilots aren' t obviously excellent. Most are good or excellent,
I' ve seen some very bad. FO or Capt. As well some young FOs are excellent and will detect the aircraft, would it be Airbus or Boeing, should not be flying there in daylight IMC. And yes, the A321 is a powerful aircraft which will clear a hill. If the pilot orders it.
Experience alone is not everything. Initial training and recurrent training is very important. Could be very good, inexistant or a joke. Depends where you fly or have flown. But does not depend on A or B!

FBW390

Update Airblue crash
 

Media reports suggests that Pilot was asked to go around and He was in process of going around. Two flights landed before in front of him and the Run was Busy and that was the reason for go around. According to DG CAA {Civil Aviation Authority}

According to BBC reports one of the witness who saw this plane earlier wondered why this plane is flying Low and why Here ? He according to BBC, was not aware that this was the route Passenger Plane usually take when they come to ISB. So there are some questions that Investigators should look. Unconfirmed reports : One of the Black Box has been recovered.