I rest my case...

4 approaches ????? fuel starvation ?

"Fuel starvation?"

Expolosions and pretty big fires at the crash site..

Check video.
Almost no fire, no smoke tower...
???

Doubt it given the evident fire, don't think these guys would be operating a VIP ship on a minimum fuel policy scenario, particularly given the weather.

Video I saw had fires burning in the background, and witnesses reported explosions ?

Also reported the aircraft flying low in a turn prior to crash.

1600 m of runway at Smolensk. Bad runway quality. No approach guidances.
As I pressume Tu-154 needs at least 2000 for safe landing :(.
It is a national disaster, nevertheless political biases :(

Latest reports say most of the Polish top brass were on board, including the Commander of the Air Force. This was a Polish Air Force aircraft, with military pilots... The first questions I would start asking after the CVR was listened to is who was sitting on the jumpseats (2 of them in the TU5 cockpit)

More coverage here from an English-language newspaper in Poland

Polish Presidential Plane Crashes

Fuel starvation? Don't think so. Warsaw is not so far from Smolensk (fuel miscalculation + 4 approaches). It looks like ground (tree) strike during go around. But who knows?

Pure speculation of course , but if it was a NPA perhaps they got the lights @ low altitude and were attempting to manouvere at low level in poor vis to get a landing out of it it.

Never easy, and the pressure on them to get in, evidenced by the fact it was their 4th attempt ,would no doubt push them to give it a go even if it looked nigh on impossible.

Poor guys, talk about between a rock & a hard place.

Obviously operating with min fuel would not be an OPTION in this scenario especially when the president along with a truck load of the nations big wigs are on board , but if you get to your destination execute 3 misses and are coming in on the 4th in around 100 mts viz with no guidance ..... your ASKING for trouble !

Polish president killed in air crash near Russia's Smolensk - RT Top Rated Videos


A Polish journalist, who had flown into Smolensk an hour earlier, describes what occurred (before he is 'cut-off' mid sentence).

The TU154 was attempting to land at a military airport, it seems may not have been suitable for a limited visibility landing.

The crew had been advised by air traffic control to divert to Minsk, but (no doubt because of the time factor) nevertheless attempted to land at the military airport.

Official Polish statement simply cites preliminary information suggesting striking trees during go-around, as reported here:

Polish president feared dead in Tu-154 crash

In 2008 President Kaczynski wanted to land in Georgia, which was at that time under Russian invasion. The captain refused to land (according to him it was too dangerous). He was highly criticized by the President, who actually wanted him to be prosecuted after the incident. So I can imagine the pressure to land at Smolenk was huge, especially today.

mcdhu

I am very well aware of the significance of the event. Unfortunately this very significance gives support to my thoughts. In aviation in seldom plays well if anything is considered more significant then the laws of gravity. From what is emerging, there was very clear pressure on the crew to land (emphasis: it may have been only percieved pressure).

@ Krasnall
Just try to land at extremely low visibliity at short runway, with bunch of VIPs sitting at your back. No approach guidances, 0 VFR conditions -
do it first and back here with comments.

List of those on board. Talk about all your eggs in one basket...

http://www.polskieradio.pl/wiadomosc...kul153440.html

Not only 737 is older in design, but this particular Tupolevs were similar age as LOT B737s. And 737s are not much superior in terms of safety record, especially if you discount cases of human error. Regarding avionics - both Polish VIP Tupolevs had cockpits completely refitted with Western avionics (Honeywell I think), they looked nothing like standard Tupolevs.

Anybody know what approaches are available at Smolensk?