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Boeing 737 Max Recertification Testing - Finally.

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Boeing 737 Max Recertification Testing - Finally.

Old 30th May 2020, 02:57
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ian W View Post
... 95% of the population appears to have innate immunity so do not expect to get sick...
As evidenced by various cruise ships, meat packing plants, prisons, etc, with way more than 5% infected?
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Old 30th May 2020, 07:09
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Google Heinsberg, Gengelt, Carnival. 15% infected in the region, and I believe 40% of those who attended the carnival.

the German doctor who led the research is Hendrick Streeck. There is a very interesting interview in English with him on YouTube.
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 19:42
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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CNBC is reporting that Boeing is ready to recertify by end of June.
Boeing to Recertify
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 20:22
  #24 (permalink)  
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That's not quite what the article says - it says complete the cert flight test by the end of June.
A good bet would be another month to six weeks after all testing is successfully completed before FAA approval is granted. So late July to mid August.
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 21:28
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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$4.3 Trillion in Exportable US GDP

-Max Jet Certification
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 21:39
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone even want or need these planes anymore? With so many planes parked, why pay for a new plane, especially one with this history? With fuel cheap, grab an NG from the desert and fly it till it's due for a D check, then get another one and do it over again.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 11:56
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Let me offer a rare optimistic view (and prediction)...

By late next year, the demand for air travel will be within 10% of what it was last year. But passengers will not longer tolerate the same cramped quarters that they did before COVID-19.
So revenue will be up and total number of planes and ATPs will be up even with somewhat fewer passengers and much fewer seats per plane.


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Old 11th Jun 2020, 14:01
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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95 % IMMUNE

Originally Posted by SLF3 View Post
Google Heinsberg, Gengelt, Carnival. 15% infected in the region, and I believe 40% of those who attended the carnival.

the German doctor who led the research is Hendrick Streeck. There is a very interesting interview in English with him on YouTube.
As a physician following this closely, the 95 % innate immunity figure is just not true.

The underlying interpretation problem is one that I see over and over in the modern era of social media....people take an N =1 and extrapolate to the entire population. I can give you a personal example. My 88 yo mother with severe Alzheimers lives in a nursing home. 35 of the residents tested positive for COVID. 5 did not. One could conclude from this study that 15 % have innate immunity. But that would be erroneous. There could be a myriad of other factors here.

There may be individuals with genetic immunity. Trouble is, we don't know who they are, yet.

The second bigger issue is that even when COVID19 is over via herd immunity, immunizations, preventive meds or a combination, will air travel ever be the same ? At least in the US, a plethora of businesses are locked into working from home and Zoom meetings. Face to face board meetings, business pitches etc may be much more rare.

And then there is always the next pathogen....
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 16:18
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by .Scott View Post
Let me offer a rare optimistic view (and prediction)...

By late next year, the demand for air travel will be within 10% of what it was last year. But passengers will not longer tolerate the same cramped quarters that they did before COVID-19.
So revenue will be up and total number of planes and ATPs will be up even with somewhat fewer passengers and much fewer seats per plane.
I wish that were the likely scenario, but it just doesn't seem plausible that a rebound would / could occur that quickly.
First, the figures around job losses mean far fewer people willl have the disposable income to fly for leisure purposes. Even many of the people that have regained or will regain their jobs have suffered BIG income losses this year. Second, substitute "businesses" for "people" and the situation re financial losses is similar. Third, the tickets for those aircraft seats will have to cost more to buy, otherwise those "fewer seats" will not generate enough revenue to make a profit.
Lastly, the only remaining way to mitigate the above is for more gov't assistance (to people, small businesses, and / or airlines). After what all levels of gov't have spent in the past 4 - 5 months on Covid related issues and support, there is simply not going to be sufficient money in the various gov't coffers for a long time.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 21:31
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SLF3 View Post
Google Heinsberg, Gengelt, Carnival. 15% infected in the region, and I believe 40% of those who attended the carnival.

the German doctor who led the research is Hendrick Streeck. There is a very interesting interview in English with him on YouTube.
Here is another google, I shall let others do the math.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...n_cruise_ships

I am not sure if the FAA are intending going alone with the un-grounding the MAX, seen no comment from the other regulators that have voiced concerns.
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Old 11th Jun 2020, 23:19
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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737 Max 7 tooling round Washington State today.

Maybe they do this every day, no idea.




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Old 12th Jun 2020, 04:29
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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737 max re-induction

Originally Posted by tdracer View Post
That's not quite what the article says - it says complete the cert flight test by the end of June.
A good bet would be another month to six weeks after all testing is successfully completed before FAA approval is granted. So late July to mid August.
What about EASA approval to fly in EU? Well it is safer in US since the '737 max 8 simulators' -the bone of contention-are only available in US. Can Boeing supply sims to all airlines outside US continent? I doubt
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 04:51
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing do not supply the MAX sims, two other independent companies manufacture and sell them.

Most MAX simulators including the one in Ethiopia were outside the US, but I guess they could have sold them to the US.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 08:52
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Whilst I am under a nda, it doesn't cover my entire life. I have physically seen more than 1 fully installed Max Sims outside the US. I have not been to Africa or the Far East for many years. So as one can see some previous posters are not up to speed. As to why they venture outside their realm of knowledge I sometimes take my own cynical view.

On the matter of the thread and it's contents, I have no direct knowledge of when any certifications will be made. One thing I can conjecture is that the FAA alongside Boeing are under pressure from Federal authorities to get the MAX into the marketplace as quickly as possible just solely based on the USA financial positions due to the pandemic.

If I was a betting man I may take a punt that the MAX will be in operation before this year is out.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 18:53
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bend alot View Post
Boeing do not supply the MAX sims, two other independent companies manufacture and sell them.

Most MAX simulators including the one in Ethiopia were outside the US, but I guess they could have sold them to the US.
simulators are produced separately by CAE Inc and Textron Inc’s simulator and training division TRU
Air Canada owns 2 max simulators and has access to a 3rd.

CAE started making more simulators in Jan anticipating a need.
Canada’s CAE Inc., anticipating a surge in demand for pilot training, in November said it had begun to make 737 Max full-flight simulators without customer orders in hand, an unusual step in the build-to-order industry. The company believed more training would be needed in the wake of 737 Max crisis and wanted to be in a position to quickly supply airlines with the machines that can cost as much as $20 million apiece, CAE spokeswoman Helene Gagnon said.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 20:09
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rotorwills View Post
One thing I can conjecture is that the FAA alongside Boeing are under pressure from Federal authorities to get the MAX into the marketplace as quickly as possible just solely based on the USA financial positions due to the pandemic.

If I was a betting man I may take a punt that the MAX will be in operation before this year is out.
Sadly, I tend to agree with you. I wish the FAA was under more pressure to get the certification process right. There's no short path for that. I'm afraid the traveling public must rely on EASA rather than FAA leadership for aviation safety, at least for the time-being.

The economy (AKA marketplace?) is important to the lives of all of us. But, life, first of all, is important to to our lives. The rush to "get back to normal" is actually counter-productive to restoring our health and our economy.
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Old 12th Jun 2020, 23:06
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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According to Jon Ostrower (here: Boeing's 737 Max software done, but regulators plot more changes after jet's return) EASA want further changes, either a third AoA sensor or a "synthetic airspeed or equivalent system".
It's not clear to me from the article whether this is a pre-condition to EASA certification of the 737 MAX, or a mandatory Service Bulletin for retrofit.
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 00:21
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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The Federal Aviation Administration has formally rejected Boeing’s proposal that it not modify nor move wiring bundles in 737 Max airplanes, according to people familiar with the decision. Boeing says the bundles do not pose a potential safety threat. Nevertheless, the FAA has told the company the bundles are “not compliant.”

A spokesperson for Boeing told CNBC: “We remain in ongoing discussions with the FAA on the wire bundles. Regardless of the final determination on this matter our estimate for a mid year return to service of the MAX is unchanged.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/faa-...compliant.html
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 00:45
  #39 (permalink)  
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Old news Bend alot. Boeing has conceded the point and MAX aircraft and are actively retrofitting the aircraft already built. There is a least one team of mechanics at Boeing dedicated to performing the wiring change:
On the flight line in Renton, where crews are working outdoors to rewire each already built but still grounded 737 MAX to meet Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wiring separation requirements, an inspector described a feeling of familylike connection and protectiveness among his work crew.
They work together rewiring each MAX over two days, then another plane is rolled into their stall and they repeat. Familiar with each other’s home circumstances and their adherence to precautions, they have contact with few other employees.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-layoffs-loom/

Standard procedure is that type certification is highly coordinated between the FAA and EASA and final approval happens at the same time - or at worst a day or two apart. Other cert organizations (e.g. Russian, China, etc.) happen separately and can follow anywhere from days to years later.
However the 737 MAX fiasco has been anything but 'Standard', so who knows (and those who may know are not talking).
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Old 13th Jun 2020, 00:48
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Not seen this before. EASA requirements.


Flight tests on a modified B737 max [one full week - at Boeing Flight Test Center]
 MCAS operations (nominal behavior)
 Flight without MCAS (including high speed turns and stall)
 Scenario of stabiliser runaway (uncommanded MCAS activation, manual trim wheel forces)
 Approach to stall with autopilot engaged

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsda...y-original.pdf
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