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14 day quarantine

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14 day quarantine

Old 9th May 2020, 12:46
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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So we’re going to have a mock-consultation with the airlines to “discuss” their de-facto shutdown. What’s the logic in restricting access from areas with much lower rates than UK and is there any evidence that doing so will help?
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:04
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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I also see that questions are being raised as to the credibility of Prof. Ferguson’s software as it appears to be ridden with bugs and gives different answers depending on the computer it is run on. The post flight review of this crisis is going to be worth reading.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:16
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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I would like to see the reasoning behind this suggestion as it seems a very odd time to bring these restrictions in. We are currently seeing a fall in cases and death rates, the NHS was never overwhelmed (the original case for bringing in the lockdown), we never ran out of ventilators and currently 40% of critical care beds in the NHS are empty. I would have thought that now would be the time to relax restrictions, not increase them.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:26
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Unfortunately, everyone in this crisis is behaving exactly true to form. Authoritarian governments tighten the screw even harder. And expect to be praised for doing so. Greens want to shut down all post-industrial revolution activity. And little bad-tempered red-faced men who dislike people using public footpaths near them now pretend to be supporting the NHS!
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:34
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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There's also another side to the problem. How many countries grant admission to arrivals from the UK now, bar their own nationals who are mandated to quarantine after arrival from the UK? I can think of a good few who don't let in anyone other then their nationals, let alone arrivals from what sadly became one of the countries with the worst epidemic profile in Europe.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:36
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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I have to agree.

The future of society is in the hands of the young and fit, not the dead and dying.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:46
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpannerInTheWerks View Post
I have to agree.

The future of society is in the hands of the young and fit, not the dead and dying.
Please define the point between these.

I'm not sure that I'm over the hill yet and on the decline
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:51
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Face it guys, it is NOW time for plan B. I hope you worked on it. I got burned on 911, devastating, started from zero. This is much much worse.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:54
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Unfortunately, everyone in this crisis is behaving exactly true to form. Authoritarian governments tighten the screw even harder. And expect to be praised for doing so. Greens want to shut down all post-industrial revolution activity. And little bad-tempered red-faced men who dislike people using public footpaths near them now pretend to be supporting the NHS!
And some of the posts in this forum are also in their own way 'true to form'.

I can figure why the UK government didn't do the right thing and restrict aviation travel sooner. But that was a big decision and and hindsight makes it simpler to judge that now. The public take the blame too - they would have been an outcry from those wanting travel in January and February. The media would have had a field day.

What I can't figure is why borders were not seen as a control point when the public lockdown commenced. It seems illogical not to have introduced stronger authorative controls at that time.

Having persuaded the UK public to generally comply with the lockdown, to shatter the economy, and sink many futures then it wouild be irresponsible *NOT* to put in some fairly heavy border enforcement as part of the overall controls that will be needed to catch and stop a second wave.

The aviation industry is in tatters. The public may not want to fly. It's not clear that they wlll be willing to fly domestically or use long distance public transport to the extent they were used to before the lockdown. If that's the case then the demand for international travle will surely be no better. Given the shift in economics both at the supply end and consumer end the public may not be able to afford to fly.

But worse it has to be mindful that history may become quite brutal - aviation as a sector may get the blame. Any airline CEO complaining about government international travel restrictions has to bear in mind that the governments they are lobbying are carrying the can for 10's of thousands (and counting) of excess deaths. The silent majority of the public may direct their wrath at more than just their governments. The story may get turned into an accusation that the aviation sector was selfishly responsible for spreading the disease that killed peoples jobs and futures along with huge numbers of actual mortalities. So railing against these quarantine restructions may well provoke a damaging response.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:05
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Wow.

Does anyone actually know what a quarantine is?

Close your borders to non-citizens/non-residents. 14 day quarantine, enforced, for those repatriated.

Get on top of this thing while you can. At any point this could take a turn for the worse. Or not. Feel lucky?

"The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Anyone banging on about "herd immunity" is being economical with the facts. It might work - if it does not mutate. Want to make the call that it won't?

Good luck and stay safe.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:19
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cessnarocket View Post
On BBC news now the gov is to enforce a 14 day quarantine for any arriving pax into UK airports from the end of May excluding ROI . If its true that's it we are all out of job goodbye to the aviation industry.
A 14 day quarantine is one thing.

With respect, how do you enforce a quarantine on a stag party returning from Alicante??
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:22
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Wow.

Does anyone actually know what a quarantine is?

Close your borders to non-citizens/non-residents. 14 day quarantine, enforced, for those repatriated.

Get on top of this thing while you can. At any point this could take a turn for the worse. Or not. Feel lucky?

"The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Anyone banging on about "herd immunity" is being economical with the facts. It might work - if it does not mutate. Want to make the call that it won't?

Good luck and stay safe.
stop quoting the Spanish flu. It’s largely irrelevant. In 1918 healthcare was poor/non-existent for many, sanitation and living conditions were much poorer, no hygiene control or education to speak of, poor diets and generally poor health for many resulting from that large war that just happened. Unless you want to start quoting the Black Death and we can all burn cats and check our humours then please give over about the Spanish Flu.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:26
  #53 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SpannerInTheWerks View Post
I have to agree.

The future of society is in the hands of the young and fit, not the dead and dying.
This will be the same young and fit that are too scared to venture out and expect to be paid (forever?) to stay at home.


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Old 9th May 2020, 14:39
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect the UK government is trying to swerve around the controversial issue of having to create some checks at the border on the island of Ireland.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:39
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Antonov225 it may well be you that is wrong. There are many similarities with 1918 including the cytokine response. Both were / are epidemics of nosocomial pathogens with much common epidemiology

The issue over what to do now is that the UK Goverment is applying the official secrets act to the science as are the Chinese so we cannot see, test, question or develop the facts. I search in vain for a precedent except in the military field.

Clearly they did too little too late and can't admit it, now finding themselves in an unenviable situation where they are clutching at straws and denying scientists save a handful of mostly civil servants the ability to help

Closing borders was necessary in January. It would still help but unsupervised isolation against an inability to track and trace the current possible 30000 new cases a day is just window dresing
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:47
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by homonculus View Post
Antonov225 it may well be you that is wrong. There are many similarities with 1918 including the cytokine response. Both were / are epidemics of nosocomial pathogens with much common epidemiology

The issue over what to do now is that the UK Goverment is applying the official secrets act to the science as are the Chinese so we cannot see, test, question or develop the facts. I search in vain for a precedent except in the military field.

Clearly they did too little too late and can't admit it, now finding themselves in an unenviable situation where they are clutching at straws and denying scientists save a handful of mostly civil servants the ability to help

Closing borders was necessary in January. It would still help but unsupervised isolation against an inability to track and trace the current possible 30000 new cases a day is just window dresing
You cannot base anything on something that happened 102 years ago including the analysis of the virus as that’s only accurate at the time. It’s of minimal use to compare the 2. Population heath and medicine is the key factor. Unless you want to count the current deaths from smallpox too.....
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:53
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Re slipping/night stopping crews and

Originally Posted by flyboy146 View Post
they will be exempt. Same approach as other countries doing the same.
That's not actually a universal truth.

FYI there are some places with quite draconian inbound quarantine regs where slipping crew are not exempt.

Most certainly a month ago at a certain far East destination slipping crews were restricted to staying at the airport hotel - they were escorted direct from arrivals to that hotel and were confined to their rooms for the duration of the stay - no going out of the room at all, so for example food was delivered to room..

Some countries have been taking this a bit more seriously than others.
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Old 9th May 2020, 15:00
  #58 (permalink)  
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Re Hunterboy: "The post flight review of this crisis is going to be worth reading."


What? Like the Russia Report, or the SAGE Minutes? If ever published (v unlikely), all the interesting bits will have been redacted and the bulk of the public will already have forgotten
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Old 9th May 2020, 15:25
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by zeddb View Post
There’s to be a “consultation” tomorrow with the airlines and there will also be exemptions for key workers according to the bbc news website. If that’s the case it hardly seems to be credible, either it’s needed for everyone or it’s not needed at all. The industry is already bleeding on the floor, I didn’t expect a conservative government to kick it to death.

I think it would be wise to see what actually transpires tomorrow before getting into a panic, there’s nothing official just yet.
Well said that individual.

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Old 9th May 2020, 15:31
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Wow.

Does anyone actually know what a quarantine is?

Close your borders to non-citizens/non-residents. 14 day quarantine, enforced, for those repatriated.

Get on top of this thing while you can. At any point this could take a turn for the worse. Or not. Feel lucky?
Have you ever tried to talk sense with a yank on this? I think the poms are going the same way. Just sit back and watch the car crash. I blame Murdoch, feeding them the line.
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