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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 5th May 2020, 10:29
  #601 (permalink)  
kpd
 
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Originally Posted by lederhosen View Post
A link to an extraordinary video of what looks like a significant part of American Airline's fleet grounded in Pittsburgh with credit to Juan Brown (an AA B777 F/O who runs a YouTube channel under the ID "blancolirio").

here is link-

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Old 5th May 2020, 11:01
  #602 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
French minister of Economy Bruno Lemaire announced this morning a ban of Domestic flights in France between city pairs that can be reached by train in less than 2,5 Hours.
Travel bans ( for non essential travel) and mandatory quarantine for outside Shengen Borders + UK in place to last until after Summer 2020.
Not what was said ... the ban" of flight between city that can be reached by train in less than 2,5hours is part of the deal the government made with Air France with the 7 billion loan ... So other airlines will do what they want ... And it is when a fast train line is used and not only the 2h30 with other train ... So in fact it will be 6/7 city connected with Paris + air France can still do those flight but for connecting passenger only.

French government changed their mind about the quarantine and for all people coming from EU (so UK is included &#128521 + Schengen area won t have to do a quarantine if traveling to France (can be found on Google)

Here a link but in French :
https://lepetitjournal.com/expat-pra...-france-279767

And in my opinion, lot of European countries will follow those kind of idea ... For example in Czech Republic, you need to have a negative covid test done in the last 4 days or you do quarantine.

It won't solve long haul travel but at least airline could resume flight in Schengen area.

​​​​​​Let s be honest, the sky is cloudy but nobody knows if it is going to turn CAVOK or heavy rain ! If you follow news like me, it change every 2days (French government literally said the total opposite with quarantine for every body 24hr before the update of now)
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Old 5th May 2020, 11:37
  #603 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for that KPD! bit of finger trouble posting the link on my side. But they are spectacular and sobering images.
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Old 5th May 2020, 12:05
  #604 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by lederhosen View Post
Thanks for that KPD! bit of finger trouble posting the link on my side. But they are spectacular and sobering images.
no problem - and the images certainly are.
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Old 7th May 2020, 10:35
  #605 (permalink)  
 
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Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel
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Old 7th May 2020, 10:48
  #606 (permalink)  
 
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To have 6 feet between passengers, you'd have to build space in both laterally (as you said) and longitudinally, so that means removing half the seats in the aircraft. They've modeled the revenue per flight with these kinds of arrangements and they are a money-losing endeavor. Airplanes are just too high cost of machines for carting around a bunch of empty space. Not only that, but the air re-circulation in many aircraft is more beneficial to spreading disease than it is preventing it, so that will have to be reconsidered.
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Old 7th May 2020, 11:12
  #607 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe it would be easier and simpler just to retrofit cargo planes with the occasional seat?
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Old 7th May 2020, 11:23
  #608 (permalink)  
 
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Surely the 6-feet/2-metre spacing cannot be maintained when pax need to visit the toilets, or wait for toilets. Also cabin crew will continually pass close to pax in aisle seats. I can see the spacing work after a fashion in 2-4-2 becoming 1-1-1, ditto for 2-3-2. But to achieve a practical yield, airfares would need to increase by up to 65%. And more than double, on single-aisle aircraft. Another solution will need to be found.
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Old 7th May 2020, 11:49
  #609 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel
They already do. They call it first class. Not many people can afford it though.
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Old 7th May 2020, 12:30
  #610 (permalink)  
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Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :
Calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62%. That is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77%..With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply. Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically—between 43% and 54% depending on the region—just to break even.
But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..



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Old 7th May 2020, 14:56
  #611 (permalink)  
 
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Air fares of pre-covid levels will in any case see 50-100% increase due to cost of additional arrangements at the airport/ in flight. Persons will travel only if necessary or if they can afford as was the case before the boom happened in this century. But this means that 30-50 % of the current fleet may operate in domestic sectors saving some Pilot jobs albeit with reduced hours and pay. An optimistic view.
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Old 8th May 2020, 03:06
  #612 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :


But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..
I would suggest that until various governments remove their individual travel restrictions and or health policies, there is very little than airlines can do to influence load factors on international flights.
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Old 8th May 2020, 04:23
  #613 (permalink)  
 
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Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found.Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. The airlines have to work for building up the confidence of travelers instead of crying for help or pretending helplessness.This virus is going to stay with us and solution based approach should be adopted as we have to accept that travel is not going to be same as before for a long time.
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Old 8th May 2020, 04:48
  #614 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. .


Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..

Last edited by wiggy; 8th May 2020 at 06:28.
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Old 8th May 2020, 05:21
  #615 (permalink)  
 
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Reference the French border closures..big press conference yesterday..unfortunately for air travel they continue..

France will keep its borders closed to all but essential travel until at least June 15th, the Interior Minister has announced.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200507/bre...east-june-15th

Contrary to some opinions expressed control over one's own borders is still allowed even within the EU....
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Old 8th May 2020, 09:58
  #616 (permalink)  
 
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Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found
all the evidence is that border controls may increase and others remain until we have a vaccine. Do please tell us the source of your interesting observation. And who is going to make the portable oxygen systems for everyone to wear between the terminal and plugging into their seat system.....
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Old 8th May 2020, 10:25
  #617 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..
Not entirely sure advocating carrying undeclared DGR is a clever idea.
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:37
  #618 (permalink)  
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Opening borders is a prerequisite to see pax back on international flights , but it is not a guarantee that they will do so in great numbers.
The reopening of Business in Georgia (USA) last week end is showing that people are not really prepared to take risks .
from an Atlanta news outlet :
Georgia's Reopening Has Been 'A Disaster' For Some Retailers Desperate For Revenue “That was the worst-case scenario, especially with all the marketing we did,” Zelaya said. “The reopening weekend was a disaster. We had two customers all weekend."

source : https://www.bisnow.com
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Old 8th May 2020, 14:58
  #619 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks.

On a 12 hour flight?

All the various proposals to make aircraft 'safe' are simply uneconomic in the present aviation industry model. The best you can hope for is a vaccine or herd immunity - either of which will possibly take up to 2 years.
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Old 9th May 2020, 07:35
  #620 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cashash View Post
With the recent announcements of extending social distancing until we get a vaccine (which could take up to 2 years) ....
The social distancing aspect means that no carrier can meet the seat factor requirements to be profitable.
Can someone explain to me why ONLY the airline industry, according to the experts on this site, will have to enforce social distancong rules?

I am sitting on a train sharing a cabin with 4 complete strangers.
To get to the train station, I took a bus from the airport. On the bus, 3 or 4 people at least rubbed shoulders with me moving around. On the plane, I had people sitting within arms length distance of other passengers the entire flight.
To get to the plane, we were loaded onto a bus, standing room only. And there would have had to be 30-40 people o that bus.

To apply social distancing rules onboard a plane, you would only be able to have a load factor of 1/3 capacity. IT IS NOT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE. Airlines will not operate if forced to comply.

But you people keep believing every sensationl headline you read. CNN, BBC Reuters, all give you the headline that will make you read or listen to their story. TRUTH, accuracy or reality, has nothing to do with it.

I have been teaching my 5 year old to wash their hands for a couple of years already. But apparently as adults, we need to be educated and taught basic hygene?

Back to my point.
According to the mental giants on here, the airline industry is finished. But every other transportation method will be fine. You will be able to go to hotels, resturants, pubs, clubs, sporting events (all of which require a certain level of patronage to survive, a level not attainable with social distancing) and they will all survive and not be subject to social distancing measures.

Now I understand why some adults need to be educated to eash their hands.

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