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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

Old 28th Dec 2016, 01:19
  #141 (permalink)  
 
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The " Careless" has one of the highest power to weight ratios of any civilian aircraft.
thrust to weight ratio for MTOW (assuming max thrust at sea level):
A320 = 0.25 - 0.31
Tu154B2 = 0.27
Tu154M = 0.31
B737-400 = 0.31
B737-300 = 0.32
B737-700 = 0.27 - 0.34
B757-300 of 0.31
B767-300 has 0.27 - 0.35

Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 07:46
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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The picture doesn't look like the panel of crushed plane. It is completely intact.
The photo is taken from this theoretical article:
http://denokan.livejournal.com/167530.html
The possibility of human errors is described in this article. The photo is taken inside parking plane, I suppose.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:10
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.
Should have said "was".
Engine technology of course has moved on for priorities on economy.

If you compare a modern later generation 737 with 2 x CFM / P & W 20,000-25,000 lbf,-

with this thirsty heavyweight museum piece from 1972 - using 3 x 20-23,000 lbf, you will find the A320 & 737 families empty are 10-15T lighter & use 1/3 less fuel.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:25
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WHBM View Post
BEA Trident at Staines 1972 ? Not identical but sounds like common aspects.
Indeed... very similar (that was premature slats in after a call for a flap setting reduction)

It was also a crowded cockpit and a distracted pilot possibly in the throes of a heart attack.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:34
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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TASS

Source says military Tu-154 plane crashed at 510 kilometers per hour
A source close to the investigation has told TASS the plane’s pitch angle was too high and it was being rocked from side to side


MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The Russian Defense Ministry’s Tupolev-154 plane that crashed into the Black Sea on December 25 was trying to make a right turn seconds before the disaster. It was flying at a speed of 500 kilometers per hour with its nose high up, a source in the law enforcement has told TASS.

"The crash occurred while the pilots were retracting spoilers (when extracted the spoilers increase the plane’s airlift - TASS). For yet to be established reasons the plane’s pitch angle was too great. Apparently the plane deviated from its designated path while making a right turn. As a result it flew into the water at a speed of about 510 kilometers per hour," the source said.

...
Read more here:
TASS: World - Source says military Tu-154 plane crashed at 510 kilometers per hour
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:41
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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Moscow says it is inappropriate to speculate on Tu-154 crash theories until probe is over

It is absolutely inappropriate to raise any statements or political assessments at this stage, Zakharova stated

MOSCOW, December 24. /TASS/. It is inappropriate to speculate on what might have caused the crash of the Russian Tu-154 in the Black Sea until the investigation is over, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Tuesday.

"Before commenting, it’s better to wait for what experts say," she said. "Let us leave it [speculations on the crash theories, including a terrorist act - TASS] on the conscience of those who thinks they have the right to speak on that topic."

-50%
More:
TASS: Russian Politics & Diplomacy - Moscow says it is inappropriate to speculate on Tu-154 crash theories until probe is over
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:41
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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Kulverstukas,

how do you rate the source of this?

Yes, retracting the flaps will cause loss of lift but it should not be fatal. Also I have doubts in terms of the trajectory. The gear goes up very early, usually moments after unstick, if the flaps had been retracted at that point, I doubt they would have made the turn.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:46
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunamer View Post
thrust to weight ratio for MTOW (assuming max thrust at sea level):
A320 = 0.25 - 0.31
Tu154B2 = 0.27
Tu154M = 0.31
B737-400 = 0.31
B737-300 = 0.32
B737-700 = 0.27 - 0.34
B757-300 of 0.31
B767-300 has 0.27 - 0.35

Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.
Yes but with one engine out it would easily be the highest !!
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:48
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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Pilots who are reading this thread will know that a twin-engine airliner requires a higher thrust-to-weight ratio than airliners with a larger number of engines, to cater for engine failure during take-off and the need to clear screen height. Hence the rather pedestrian climb rate of the early A340 compared with the largely similar A330.

There were some exceptions, such as the VC10, which the ARB required to be able to continue climb after losing 2 engines on the same side - however, if the 3-engined Tu154 has about the same thrust-to-weight ratio as an A320, then that is probably higher than regulations strictly require.

News of the Solchi disaster seems to be slipped off the front pages of Western rags, which seem to be more concerned with the deaths of Parfitt, Michael, Fisher and Adams than 92 innocent Russians...

Were those 'official' CVR transcripts? If so, from what source?
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 08:54
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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CVR transcript can be authentic, but a time stamping is missing. Flaps problem may arise some 1-2 min later after gears up.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 09:02
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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One does wonder about the stages of flap raising... and why any asymmetry might have crept in. If there's a suggestion of dutch roll or wing rocking this might imply flight regime near or above the stall incidence (for the configuration)
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 09:09
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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Premature slat retraction

IF this is what happened it is indeed very similar to the PI accident. All the more sad therefore that those old lessons weren't learned. Within a few weeks of that crash we all we went back to the sim for the irreverently titled 'Sam Key Memorial Exercise'. The 'droop' (leading edge flap, no slot) was raised about 40 knots too soon, all hell broke loose, and order was immediately restored by reselecting the droop down. All a bit of a non event... once one knew what to do. The general rule of 'if something horrid happens, undo the last action' works even if you don't understand exactly what's going on and ought to be more generally known.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 09:18
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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@AN2 et al

Untill now, no "source" can be accounted as reliable or genuine. All "facts" discussed in this thread falls exactly into "rumours" part of it's name.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 09:45
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks Kulverstukas.

That is what I thought.

At least by now they appear to have both recorders. I guess only when we get a proper release by the experts we can start to make some sense in this. The stuff written in the papers appears to be mostly w.a.g's. One sais 500 km/h, the other 300, e.t.c. this is unreliable to the max.

I can imagine a flaps error, but it does not come together with the flight path. Then again, the flight path is wrong for the SID, and so on. So we'll have to wait.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 10:30
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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Being reported earlier today (Russian media - RBC) that there was a fault with the flaps, which should have been manageable in theory as a "known" issue, but not handled correctly by the crew leading to a stall.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 10:37
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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BBC Reports 'Faulty Wing Flaps'

BBC quoting 'Pro Kremlin Website' stating 'Faulty Wing Flaps' to blame and showing the CVR transcript posted hear earlier.

Russia plane crash: Flight recorder 'reveals faulty wing flaps to blame' - BBC News
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 10:49
  #157 (permalink)  
 
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According to the BBC, the CVR revealed there was a problem operating the flaps, resulting in loss of control.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 11:03
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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harryman
"Indeed... very similar (that was premature slats in after a call for a flap setting reduction)"wrong! the captain called for "gear up" the co pilot pulled the wrong lever.later the levers were modified to stop that happening again
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 11:08
  #159 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rockhound View Post
According to the BBC, the CVR revealed there was a problem operating the flaps, resulting in loss of control.
I still wouldn't be surprised if "flaps" is a mistranslation and turned out to be slats.
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Old 28th Dec 2016, 12:26
  #160 (permalink)  
 
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The BBC article is suggesting that the flaps did not retract in sync .. that "they are not moving together" ... although quite how they got to that conclusion from the CVR is not clear ...

As normal practice is to retract in stages, I would have thought the imbalance would have become obvious before it became fatal, by the time you have a bootfull of rudder and the stick hard over, you would not be calling for another stage of flap retraction, you'd be thinking "hmm, that does not seem to have gone well" ...
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