TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

[andrasz]

Originally Posted by AN2 driver

CG is regulated via fuel in the TU, so it should not have been a problem...

No it is not. Back in a previous era I used to do load control on TU5s, I can say with 100% certainty. No Soviet era aircraft had any active fuel trimming system, the first a/c I'm aware of to have had one was the 310-300.

[HarryMann]

Solid bit of kit..

Originally Posted by paperHanger

@vovachan if it had come in slow and nose up, it is unlikey to have broken up ... the TU154 is very solid bit of kit, a slow water landing would have been very survivable, at least a few passengers would have managed to get lifejackets on even if the tail broke off, in front of the rear bulkhead. The fact that no one survived and the authorities insist no one had a life jacket deployed would suggest it either broke up mid air, or entered the water at some reasonably high velocity.

If it's a solid bit if kit then why would it break up in the air ?
It didn't of course !

[A_Van]

Well known that very often a catastrophe happens when several negative factors occur together. Here, very likely the TOW was at the limit (this will be known soon), also no visibility at night after passing the shoreline. The crew did not flow for a long time before this second leg (Moscow - Sochi is just some 2+ hrs) but did not sleep the whole night (it was 5+ a.m). The plane reportedly started a prescribed right U-turn (likely intensive with significant roll). If at that moment anything happens (e.g malfunction of one of the engines) it may pose a difficult task to the crew to be solved almost instantly.

[mikeygd]

Originally Posted by PilotsResearch

Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?

I assume to avoid needing to refuel in Syria. Supplies there are probably all shipped from Russia, so it makes no sense for them to upload fuel in Syria when they could stop before leaving Russia to tanker their own fuel.

[andrasz]

The fireball from the video (reliable?)

Several posters above confrmed that the video shows the flare of a lighthouse, NOT anything related to the aircraft.

Same source which peviously suggested FOD in engines now suggests fuel pump failure, so we may probably discount both as pure speculation.

[16024]

Originally Posted by PilotsResearch
Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?

It was only one page back!

As regards the discussion about refuelling, it may make sense to round-trip it with cheap, readily available Russian fuel if uploading in Syria might be a lottery.

[Kulverstukas]

[Kulverstukas]

— ...Speed 300... (illegibly.)

— (illegibly.)

— Gears up, Cpt*.

— (illegibly.)

— Oh, shit!

(warning sound. stall warning?)

— The flaps, bitch! WTF?!

— Altimeter!

— We... (are finished? illegibly.)

(Ground warning.)

— (illegibly.)

— Cpt, we're falling!

* literally "Gears taken, commander"

[JCviggen]

So they (FO) pulled the wrong lever and stalled it into the drink is the picture being painted?

[enola-gay]

This would explain the Russian assertion of pilot error

[A_Van]

I wonder where the above script has come from? CVR is yet under the water or just pulled out of it and has not yet decoded by "Lubertsy".

[Kulverstukas]

First recorder rescued was a CVR.



0:39

- It's the sound one...
- It's CVR. Mars-BM

[Chronus]

CVR

I can well understand popping the cover off, first thing to leak out would be water. But am amazed at the speed with which it seems to have been followed by the transcript.

[archae86]

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas

- It's the sound one...
- It's CVR. Mars-BM

Indeed--and it uses magnetic tape, not solid state storage.

[Chopped]

Originally Posted by Dubaian

Mr Snuggles it's also where they held the last Winter Olympics. Typical Central Continental climate - hot summers and cold winters.

Yes, the last Winter Olympics were in Sochi. But before you take this as a judge of weather: It was 21C in the park (near Adler airport) in mid-February during the Games.
People were wearing shorts & flip-flops, even at the skiing events in the mountains. That weather was not a freak heatwave: a friend of mine worked there for 7 weeks and it didn't get close to freezing in all that time.

[WHBM]

BEA Trident at Staines 1972 ? Not identical but sounds like common aspects.

[jaytee54]

Kulverstukas,
Are you saying that when the Captain asked for 'gear up' the FO selected the flap up (all the way) instead?

[barry lloyd]

The circled right-hand lever is marked шасси (undercarriage)
The circled left-hand lever is marked ЗАКРЫЛКИ (flaps)

[up_down_n_out]

The " Careless" has one of the highest power to weight ratios of any civilian aircraft.
They make a 320 feel like a slug hence the high fuel consumption/relative inefficiencies.

It was known for being one of the fastest flying a/c out there, as well as t/o / rotate, being a blast.
I always looked forward to flying one, because it felt like a mad howling dragster.

Just see how they flew Alrosa flight 514 back out of that short disused military a/f in the Taiga, then it was flying again in 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XUgKLIG_5M

The likelihood of it being overweight is about zero here, so the finger surely has to be pointed to some sort of nasty error >stall scenario.

[noflynomore]

Sadly the historical data for accidents moments after take off, especially over water and in the dark, are almost invariably pilot error - usually somatosogravic illusion or similar.
It all seems eerily similar to so many other "inexplicable" accidents in identical circumstances.