BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
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RPB quetion
2. Rear pressure bulkhead still seem to sit at its installed position.
how do you reach that conclusion,, which images?
how do you reach that conclusion,, which images?
Then one HS was found broken off just outside of the fuselage. RPB explosion could not do that.
Also, if you try to peek into tail section there you can not see any gaping holes. Instead it looks like RPB sitting there.
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seats
Looks like the seats are covered in dust not soot.
If it was soot or dust you probably would see marks from touching these seats when passengers were taken away.
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While everyone is keen on the 'bomb theory' - remember that security services will immediately think was it a bomb - as that is what they do. Aircraft engineers will think break up and "where is the HS?" as even if the tail breaks off the HS and VS normally stay remarkably intact.
But politicians are advised by security services so will take action against security threats as that is a threat to their jobs and they need to take action to keep votes.
So - having said that - if the HS has a problem and departs the airframe, does that cause a fire? Well we have that answer on video already from earlier in the thread where an aircraft lost its HS while flying behind a tanking F-4. Guess what the aircraft went into a severe bunt, suffered structural failure and exploded in flames while airborne, then another large explosion on the ground. So a 'heat signature' from the airborne aircraft does not mean bomb any more than it means structural failure.
There has been no bomb residue found.
The HS parted company with the empenage in a most unlikely way not seen in any other aircraft bombing.
No answers - but before we start grilling low grade catering cart operatives and blame them and lax security, it would be better to get real evidence.
But politicians are advised by security services so will take action against security threats as that is a threat to their jobs and they need to take action to keep votes.
So - having said that - if the HS has a problem and departs the airframe, does that cause a fire? Well we have that answer on video already from earlier in the thread where an aircraft lost its HS while flying behind a tanking F-4. Guess what the aircraft went into a severe bunt, suffered structural failure and exploded in flames while airborne, then another large explosion on the ground. So a 'heat signature' from the airborne aircraft does not mean bomb any more than it means structural failure.
There has been no bomb residue found.
The HS parted company with the empenage in a most unlikely way not seen in any other aircraft bombing.
No answers - but before we start grilling low grade catering cart operatives and blame them and lax security, it would be better to get real evidence.
Are there any Explosives (Bomb materials) that don't naturally leave a chemical/forensic trace?
What's the trace of a lithium ion based explosive (mobile phone device) inside a compact non-security screened food container.
What's the trace of a lithium ion based explosive (mobile phone device) inside a compact non-security screened food container.
In common use, there are nitrates or peroxides, both of which can be picked up in various ways.
Lithium ion devices are not explosives in the true sense; they have thermal effects (thermal runaway).
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Genuine questions, but just speculating on a what if scenario.
Given that the Airbus is a fly by wire, side stick controlled aircraft and probably climbing on autopilot at the time of the incident, what would be the effect of a full excursion rear or forward movement of one of the side stick controllers.
Could a pilot inadvertantly knock the sidestick control full travel? Very unlikely I know, but would the aircraft respond immediately to the sidestick input, dump the autopilot and move the elevators full travel or would the built in protections prevent that happening? My understanding is that the controllers remain in position and do not self centre, so it might take a couple of seconds to recentre the control. Would that be sufficient to damage the aircraft?
Given that the repaired tail section might be slightly weaker than on an undamaged aircraft, could a rapid control movement cause separation?
Given that the Airbus is a fly by wire, side stick controlled aircraft and probably climbing on autopilot at the time of the incident, what would be the effect of a full excursion rear or forward movement of one of the side stick controllers.
Could a pilot inadvertantly knock the sidestick control full travel? Very unlikely I know, but would the aircraft respond immediately to the sidestick input, dump the autopilot and move the elevators full travel or would the built in protections prevent that happening? My understanding is that the controllers remain in position and do not self centre, so it might take a couple of seconds to recentre the control. Would that be sufficient to damage the aircraft?
Given that the repaired tail section might be slightly weaker than on an undamaged aircraft, could a rapid control movement cause separation?
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Major components still missing - update4
@Ian W - agree with you. If it was a bomb there is still no (clear) evidence of that in the videos and pictures i have found in the public domain till now. If a pprune would have found them, i think we would learn about that pretty fast.
Still "missing" (in my definition) the THS centerbox and the other half of the THS. And the rudder. Perhaps part of the (top of the) centerbox is pushed upward in the tailcone, but no explicit pictures of that. If so, it would suggest that both THS halves broke away flush with the skin.
Also still missing clear "evidence" (my definition) of a number of skin panels and the three cargo doors. When you talk about explosions, you would certainly like to know more about them. There are some other specific points that you would direct a person on site to, to look at... but alas, we are not in that position... expect the investigators to check these points.
We do not have the full set of pax doors. In my definition at least three missing.
There are a number of breaks in the fuselage wreckage that are along what i am used to call "production breaks" (discussed that on pprune during the AirAsia search). The breaks are quite 'clean'. If you are talking about intentional explosions, you would expect more 'ragged edges'.
+++
Would still be interesting to get some more close up photos of avionics boxes in the MEC.
Still "missing" (in my definition) the THS centerbox and the other half of the THS. And the rudder. Perhaps part of the (top of the) centerbox is pushed upward in the tailcone, but no explicit pictures of that. If so, it would suggest that both THS halves broke away flush with the skin.
Also still missing clear "evidence" (my definition) of a number of skin panels and the three cargo doors. When you talk about explosions, you would certainly like to know more about them. There are some other specific points that you would direct a person on site to, to look at... but alas, we are not in that position... expect the investigators to check these points.
We do not have the full set of pax doors. In my definition at least three missing.
There are a number of breaks in the fuselage wreckage that are along what i am used to call "production breaks" (discussed that on pprune during the AirAsia search). The breaks are quite 'clean'. If you are talking about intentional explosions, you would expect more 'ragged edges'.
+++
Would still be interesting to get some more close up photos of avionics boxes in the MEC.
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Genuine questions, but just speculating on a what if scenario.
Given that the Airbus is a fly by wire, side stick controlled aircraft and probably climbing on autopilot at the time of the incident, what would be the effect of a full excursion rear or forward movement of one of the side stick controllers.
Could a pilot inadvertantly knock the sidestick control full travel? Very unlikely I know, but would the aircraft respond immediately to the sidestick input, dump the autopilot and move the elevators full travel or would the built in protections prevent that happening? My understanding is that the controllers remain in position and do not self centre, so it might take a couple of seconds to recentre the control. Would that be sufficient to damage the aircraft?
Given that the repaired tail section might be slightly weaker than on an undamaged aircraft, could a rapid control movement cause separation?
Given that the Airbus is a fly by wire, side stick controlled aircraft and probably climbing on autopilot at the time of the incident, what would be the effect of a full excursion rear or forward movement of one of the side stick controllers.
Could a pilot inadvertantly knock the sidestick control full travel? Very unlikely I know, but would the aircraft respond immediately to the sidestick input, dump the autopilot and move the elevators full travel or would the built in protections prevent that happening? My understanding is that the controllers remain in position and do not self centre, so it might take a couple of seconds to recentre the control. Would that be sufficient to damage the aircraft?
Given that the repaired tail section might be slightly weaker than on an undamaged aircraft, could a rapid control movement cause separation?
Assuming the FBW system was in Normal Law, as it would be if there were no previous failures, full aft stick movement would result in 2.5g (if at high speed), or an angle of attack short of the aerodynamic stall (if at low speed).
In Normal Law, full forward stick would give -1g, which while dangerous for anyone not wearing a seat belt, would not cause structural failure. If the stick was held forward, the pitch attitude would reach the lower limit allowed by the FBW system (-15 deg?), and the aircraft would accelerate to a speed somewhat faster than the maximum speed allowed in normal operations. The aircraft would have been designed to safely fly at this high speed with full forward stick, and it would have been done many times during flight testing.
There are additional non-relevant nuances in specific corners of the envelope, but the above is a reasonable top level description.
In summary, there is no risk to the structure from either full forward or full aft stick, no matter how sudden the movement, as long as the FBW is in Normal Law.
I won't speculate on the possible cause of the accident.
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Just a general observation that the ground investigation effort seems a little less than professional: the investigators have driven rather casually all over the debris field - note the wheel tracks across that long cable attached to the tail section, for instance - and when I see that, I wonder what other poor handling the wreckage has undergone that we haven't seen.
Then too, there's a thundering herd of men in suits and ties in the photos. It's never good for productivity to have the big bosses on the factory floor.
Well, maybe I'm just being a worrier.
Then too, there's a thundering herd of men in suits and ties in the photos. It's never good for productivity to have the big bosses on the factory floor.
Well, maybe I'm just being a worrier.
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I work as a test pilot, and have flown flight tests on various Airbus aircraft (but not the A321, although its control laws are similar to models I have flown)
The aircraft also broke up in mid-air on the way down.
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First of all, there is no visible damage around RPB. No peeling. I think you have seen plenty of images of tail section.
Then one HS was found broken off just outside of the fuselage. RPB explosion could not do that.
Also, if you try to peek into tail section there you can not see any gaping holes. Instead it looks like RPB sitting there.
Then one HS was found broken off just outside of the fuselage. RPB explosion could not do that.
Also, if you try to peek into tail section there you can not see any gaping holes. Instead it looks like RPB sitting there.
re the photo looking in the door, who knows what debris is there, and the light entering the door is only illuminating a couple of foot into the darkness at best, and at the aft end the light is from the wrong angle to throw much in there look at the image from the rear of the tail dense shadow.
no proof just yiur guess.opinion.
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Break up or Bomb?
I personally can't decide but I always wonder about coincidences.
If this was abreak up due to earlier tail strike repair, there are a number of them that pop to mind.
A) How long since the repair and how many flights has this frame done since the repair, so what were the odds of it failing within about 14 days of Russia getting seriously involved in Syria
B) what were the odds of it failing whilst over flying potentially hostile territory or from departing a potential hostile airfield.
Had this happened within Russia these concerns would greatly diminish but not disappear entirely.
If this was abreak up due to earlier tail strike repair, there are a number of them that pop to mind.
A) How long since the repair and how many flights has this frame done since the repair, so what were the odds of it failing within about 14 days of Russia getting seriously involved in Syria
B) what were the odds of it failing whilst over flying potentially hostile territory or from departing a potential hostile airfield.
Had this happened within Russia these concerns would greatly diminish but not disappear entirely.
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Just a general observation that the ground investigation effort seems a little less than professional: the investigators have driven rather casually all over the debris field - note the wheel tracks across that long cable attached to the tail section, for instance - and when I see that, I wonder what other poor handling the wreckage has undergone that we haven't seen.
While everyone is keen on the 'bomb theory' - remember that security services will immediately think was it a bomb - as that is what they do. Aircraft engineers will think break up and "where is the HS?" as even if the tail breaks off the HS and VS normally stay remarkably intact.
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Mirosft's Shrapnel Photo
Rubber Stilts said: "post # 511 made by Mitrosft included an image of what looked like schrapnel holes in a grey plastic slab from the interior of the rear galley; if I remember correctly."
Yes, it looked like it had been hit by a spray of shrapnel, and the authorities (who are privy to much more information than we are) seem to be leaning to the bomb scenario. Surely by now they have analyzed any chemical signature left behind, and bits of the shrapnel embedded in that plastic piece. Thanks Mitrosft. I just checked, and verified that it is post #511, if you missed it. Thanks Rubber Stilts.
Yes, it looked like it had been hit by a spray of shrapnel, and the authorities (who are privy to much more information than we are) seem to be leaning to the bomb scenario. Surely by now they have analyzed any chemical signature left behind, and bits of the shrapnel embedded in that plastic piece. Thanks Mitrosft. I just checked, and verified that it is post #511, if you missed it. Thanks Rubber Stilts.
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Assuming that the cabin crew started heating food as soon as possible after takeoff, 25 minutes into the flight could conceivably be the time it takes for the food heaters to reach high temperature. One (or more) of those food packages could have been a bomb - disguised as a meal (breakfast?) – detonated by being heated to a moderately high temperature.
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RPB
re the photo looking in the door, who knows what debris is there, and the light entering the door is only illuminating a couple of foot into the darkness at best, and at the aft end the light is from the wrong angle to throw much in there look at the image from the rear of the tail dense shadow.
Most importantly HS would never have broken off the way it has broken by ruptured presure bulkhead.
Only one panel on the rear door in the #511 photo shows the marks. Note also lack of distortion in this panel.
How would the adjacent panels escape similar damage?
How would the adjacent panels escape similar damage?