Break up or Bomb?
I personally can't decide but I always wonder about coincidences.
If this was abreak up due to earlier tail strike repair, there are a number of them that pop to mind.
A) How long since the repair and how many flights has this frame done since the repair, so what were the odds of it failing within about 14 days of Russia getting seriously involved in Syria
B) what were the odds of it failing whilst over flying potentially hostile territory or from departing a potential hostile airfield.
Had this happened within Russia these concerns would greatly diminish but not disappear entirely.