MH17 Update

[Proper]

MH17 JIT june 2016 E-zine with new information: https://www.om.nl/mh17-ezine-juni2016/e-zine-en.html

[gwillie]

Two pieces in The Guardian today:

Flight MH17 investigators to pinpoint missile launch in rebel-held Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ukraine-russia

MH17 explainer: what you need to know before the criminal inquiry results


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nquiry-results

[Pali]

Very interesting press conference:



Translator was a bit overwhelmed with Russian phone calls transcripts and I just hope there will be English version soon. As I learned Russian language for 10 years I could get more from this dialogues. It is worth to read them...

[hoss183]

Overwhelming evidence that the BUK came in from/ and went back to Russia.
https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-c...ght-mh17-shot/

direct link to video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf6gJ8NDhYA well worth watching.

[Interested Passenger]

Either Russia will deny it, or ignore it, or they will identify the person(s) involved, who will have been killed in military action since then.

[Pi1010]

The video animation and today Financial Times coverage is very compelling.
I have a question about the IFF/secondary radar, surely MH17 was transmitting? Before we fired any missiles (and this was many years ago and at sea) there was a well rehearsed procedure for checking the target was adhering to a known flight path or not and was transmitting on IFF or not. I wouldn't expect a radio warning on land. If MH17 was transmitting then surely the missile radar operators knew? A Ukrainian military aircraft would not transmit or spoof on civilian IFF and the missile team wouldn't want to shoot down one of their own aircraft.

[ATC Watcher]

So UkSATSE (Ukrainian State Air Traffic Services Enterprise) deliberately leaving airspace over a war zone available to CAT has no bearing...

Little . They claimed that based on the information they had the rebels had no access to no high altitude missiles.( which might be true ) UkSATSE also needed the cash of the overflights charges to continue operating. so no real incentive to go beyond what their own State intelligence told them .

But some airlines did deliberately avoid that airspace based on their State info.
Was this just precautionary of based on real intelligence? I leave the answer open as I do not have it. What is sure is that they did not share that info with other airlines, not even within their own Airline alliance.. ICAO since jumped in , and there is now a policy/procedures for such cases. Too late unfortunately for MH17 .

[mm_flynn]

If MH17 was transmitting then surely the missile radar operators knew? A Ukrainian military aircraft would not transmit or spoof on civilian IFF and the missile team wouldn't want to shoot down one of their own aircraft.

If I recall correctly, the rebels did not have any aircraft. As such, they could be confident any aircraft spotted were not theirs. That might (my speculation) have resulted in a lack of care in evaluating the aircraft's IFF status. Or alternatively, some situation may have caused them to believe it was a military aircraft deliberately showing civil IFF codes, or the launcher may have been handed over to a crew with limited training.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

Little . They claimed that based on the information they had the rebels had no access to no high altitude missiles.( which might be true ) UkSATSE also needed the cash of the overflights charges to continue operating. so no real incentive to go beyond what their own State intelligence told them .

But some airlines did deliberately avoid that airspace based on their State info.
Was this just precautionary of based on real intelligence? I leave the answer open as I do not have it. What is sure is that they did not share that info with other airlines, not even within their own Airline alliance.. ICAO since jumped in , and there is now a policy/procedures for such cases. Too late unfortunately for MH17 .

It is the State's duty (via the ANSP) to ensure the safety of CAT within it's airspace. Airspace is routinely denied to CAT due to Military activity. Revenue is not an acceptable reason to risk the safety of civil aircraft, particularly in the event of conflict.

[cpt]

Couldn't it be the same sort of confusion that occured with the uss Vincennes and Iran Air flight 655 back in 1988 (the Airbus had been wrongly identified as a nearby F14)

[Chronus]

From a perspective of a aviation safety, of greater importance is knowledge of why such an act was committed and as to who was the intended target, rather than by whom it was carried out.

[fox niner]

100 witnesses were identified today, who were somehow involved in this atrocity. Their names are known to the investigation team. Some of them have blood on their hands. Some are pure witnesses. Their names were withheld, as is always the case in such proceedings in NL.
Russia should re-evaluate their stance in this affair. They act like a banana republic in the face of such damning evidence. They are in denial.

[Lena.Kiev]

That type Buk TELAR (launcher with radar) has only Russian military IFF requester, not Western/international type civilian secondary, MODE-S. Soviet type civilian secondary is obsolete, not used anymore.

[hoss183]

Originally Posted by Chronus

From a perspective of a aviation safety, of greater importance is knowledge of why such an act was committed and as to who was the intended target, rather than by whom it was carried out.

Indeed, but the usual method of solving crimes is to find who did it and then interview or investigate them to find out why they did it.

[RAT 5]

Either Russia will deny it, or ignore it,

Interesting 'Hard Talk' on BBC today. The man in the hot seat was Putin's spokesman in Moscow. His middle name was deflector. OK, he is a mouth piece, but his words are Putin's words. Denial was the name of the game, but in a slightly diluted form than some months ago.
What will be crucial is the resolve of the EU & NL in particular. Mettle & true colours will be on display on both sides. Will it be a respectful outcome to the fallen victims & families, or a fudge? If the latter then it would be a huge display of double standards on the world stage, when you consider how many conflicts are active around the globe.

[ATC Watcher]

RAT5 :

What will be crucial is the resolve of the EU & NL in particular

I would not bet much on the EU resolve , but one thing I can tell you from a long experience in the country if that the Dutch will not stop and bury this .Somebody did wrong to them and they will go to the bottom of it as long as it takes. . Calvinist culture is still strong there.

[Prangster]

The elephant in the room here folks is the large Russian army that was poised to invade Ukraine itching for a causus belli. Why not shoot down one of your OWN airliners? Sadly they're cynical enough to do so. After the attack cue excited comment 'We just shot the Antonov' rapidly removed from tinternet

[Heathrow Harry]

Personally I always go for stupid over conspiracy - give a bunch of yahoos determined on independence a modern sophisticated Anti -Air missile and they're going to use it for sure......................

[Sunamer]

Originally Posted by Prangster

The elephant in the room here folks is the large Russian army that was poised to invade Ukraine itching for a causus belli. Why not shoot down one of your OWN airliners? Sadly they're cynical enough to do so. After the attack cue excited comment 'We just shot the Antonov' rapidly removed from tinternet

This version makes sense. Russia needed that reason to start an open war with Ukraine. Its own plane that would have been shot down by "bloody Ukraines" would have given that reason...

It was supposed to be a russian plane flying to Larnaca. Problems for Buk crew started when they reached a wrong position which in Russia sounded very similar to where they should have been instead. Since they relied on a radar from Russia, they shot down a wrong airliner...

The rest is history...


"Единственное более-менее приемлемое объяснение дал Наливайченко, тогдашний глава СБУ. Изложение и анализ здесь https://informnapalm.org/671-kakoj-samolet-sobyralys-sbyt-terrorysty/ . После этого выступления у него и начались проблемы. Сбить должны были российский рейс на Ларнаку, но из-за путаницы в названиях (Первомайский и Первомайское) экипаж занял не ту позицию Так как отдельной машины с мощным радаром не было, идентифицировать рейс экипаж не мог. После сбитого самолета должны были начать полномасштабное вторжение - вспомните 1999 год. К этому шло - концентрация войск на границах достигла максимума именно тогда. Все эти отмазки про АН-26 вброшены ФСБ с большого бодуна, балбесы хотя бы в Википедию глянули (можно было приплести ИЛ-76). АН-26 сбивается любым комплексом ПВО, его потолок 7300 м, у груженого не выше 6000, скорость до 540 км/ч, в 2 раза ниже Боинга. Перепутать их невозможно - это раз. Второе - Украина на тот момент закрыла небо до 10 000 м. Поэтому всякий, кто повторяет эту чушь - дурак или сексот. А тот, кто верит в качественную работу ФСБ, должен реже смотреть ТВ."

[TEEEJ]

Originally Posted by Prangster

After the attack cue excited comment 'We just shot the Antonov' rapidly removed from tinternet

Surprisingly the Russian News Agency Tass still have that article on their website.

July 17, 2014, 20:01

DONETSK, July 17. /ITAR-TASS/. The mlitia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have brought down a military transport Antonov-26 (An-26) plane of the Ukrainian Air Force on the outskirts of the town of Torez, eyewitnesses said.

A missile hit the An-26, it fell on the ground and caught blaze, they said.

On July 14, militiamen of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic downed another An-26 of the Ukrainian Air Force.

TASS: World - Eyewitnesses claim Donbass militia downed Ukrainian An-26 plane