Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island
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This find, if proven to be MH370, must give great heart and new inspiration to continue, to the ATSB and the people on the Fugro search ships - who must have had pretty low morale up to this point, with absolutely nothing relevant appearing in the search up, until now. Multiple books and numerous "experts" pursuing wild theories have not helped.
The general indications, from past wreckage finds on Reunion and Madagascar, seem to indicate that this find would tend to point to a crash location more in the North of the current search zone.
A deep Southern Indian Ocean crash location would have more likely seen the flaperon wash up on the coast of Western Australia.
biilslugg - I would expect that surface winds play a major factor in flotsam movement, rather than the actual sea currents. A small wrecked boat lost from the North-West of Western Australia found its way to Reunion Island in recent times - and a lifeboat containing a body, from the wreck of the HMAS Sydney, lost about 130NM off Carnarvon, W.A., in Nov 1941, was washed up on Christmas Island some 8 mths later.
The general indications, from past wreckage finds on Reunion and Madagascar, seem to indicate that this find would tend to point to a crash location more in the North of the current search zone.
A deep Southern Indian Ocean crash location would have more likely seen the flaperon wash up on the coast of Western Australia.
biilslugg - I would expect that surface winds play a major factor in flotsam movement, rather than the actual sea currents. A small wrecked boat lost from the North-West of Western Australia found its way to Reunion Island in recent times - and a lifeboat containing a body, from the wreck of the HMAS Sydney, lost about 130NM off Carnarvon, W.A., in Nov 1941, was washed up on Christmas Island some 8 mths later.
Last edited by onetrack; 30th Jul 2015 at 04:48.
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The lack of barnacles maybe because they don't like composites as much as metal, any sailors out there?
I believe it was the RN that discovered copper's anti-fouling properties during the days of sail.
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Having managed a marina in the past and lived on a boat for years (though in the NE US) barnacles love fiberglass, wood, and metal equally. How many you get depends on how much the hull moves over a period of time - it's sitting where they hit hardest. I used to chuckle at the folks that would refuse to put copper bottom paint (I always used green as the copper content was higher - and cayenne) on their hulls because they were only going to be out for a couple of days here and there. They'd go out for a couple of weekends, anchor and be scraping when they came back. The paint would last me about a year with two coats, but did nothing to keep them off props, shafts, zincs and anything else not painted. Warmer water, more barnacles. More frequent movement in the water, less barnacles.
I've never encountered floating aircraft parts, but was on a ship in the eastern Gulf of Mexico that ran across floating wreckage of a nautical nature.
Conveniently, it had distinctive numbers and other markings, and a little web research identified it as one hull of a racing catamaran that broke up in a storm 15 months before in mid-Atlantic.
Now, the current where we found it floating was easterly - FROM the Gulf INTO the Atlantic (by way of the Straits of Florida - the famous Gulf Stream).
So anyone attempting a simplistic analyisis with an ocean currents chart and a ruler would have "proved" that it could not possibly have been where it was - except that, in FACT, that is where it ended up.
A more sophisticated analysis (and consistent with the observed facts) might have been that it drifted south into the Equatorial Current (or even east into the Canary Current and thus to the EC), and then west into the Caribbean Current and through the Yucatan Channel to where we found it.
Although even that would be guesswork, and oversimplified. The paths of floating objects in the sea, while they may have a slight bias in one direction or another over time, are essentially "random walks" as the object is influenced by both wind and water, and bounces around from one flow to the next.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/graphi..._ind_aug97.gif
Conveniently, it had distinctive numbers and other markings, and a little web research identified it as one hull of a racing catamaran that broke up in a storm 15 months before in mid-Atlantic.
Now, the current where we found it floating was easterly - FROM the Gulf INTO the Atlantic (by way of the Straits of Florida - the famous Gulf Stream).
So anyone attempting a simplistic analyisis with an ocean currents chart and a ruler would have "proved" that it could not possibly have been where it was - except that, in FACT, that is where it ended up.
A more sophisticated analysis (and consistent with the observed facts) might have been that it drifted south into the Equatorial Current (or even east into the Canary Current and thus to the EC), and then west into the Caribbean Current and through the Yucatan Channel to where we found it.
Although even that would be guesswork, and oversimplified. The paths of floating objects in the sea, while they may have a slight bias in one direction or another over time, are essentially "random walks" as the object is influenced by both wind and water, and bounces around from one flow to the next.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/graphi..._ind_aug97.gif
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UIt is quite easy to determine which ac that part comes from based on the serial no.
I belive that authorities know by now if it's from MH plane or not. However such announcement has to come from the investigators based on a report. This is probably undergoing now.
I belive that authorities know by now if it's from MH plane or not. However such announcement has to come from the investigators based on a report. This is probably undergoing now.
Given that this is an aerodynamic surface, it would be worth running tests of a similar component in the winds and waves this one has experienced, to determine how much of its movement is influenced by the wind rather than waves.
It could of course have remained attached to heavier submerged wreckage for many months, in which case it may have been projecting out of the water and acting as a sail.
It could of course have remained attached to heavier submerged wreckage for many months, in which case it may have been projecting out of the water and acting as a sail.
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From the limited damage (and assuming it is MH370), does it make it seem more likely it was a controlled ditching? If so, presumably there won't have been much other floating debris and there's a good chance the rest of the aircraft is reasonably intact on the seabed.
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45m ago
08:23
Julien Delarue, a journalist with Journal de L’île de la Réunion, sends this update from the island:
A mechanic from the Réunion-based airline Air Austral told local journalists he had studied the debris with French military officials and concluded with 99.9% certainty that it originated from a Boeing 777.
He said the debris was stamped with 657-BB, a number that could be used to identify a part and the plane to which it belonged.
(This number is different to that cited by Australia’s deputy PM just now; he mentioned BB670. Once we have clarity on that, I’ll update.)
This makes more sense then the serial numbers quoted earlier.
http://en.calameo.com/read/0003162864c5d46c7d25f
06-44-00 Page 235
08:23
Julien Delarue, a journalist with Journal de L’île de la Réunion, sends this update from the island:
A mechanic from the Réunion-based airline Air Austral told local journalists he had studied the debris with French military officials and concluded with 99.9% certainty that it originated from a Boeing 777.
He said the debris was stamped with 657-BB, a number that could be used to identify a part and the plane to which it belonged.
(This number is different to that cited by Australia’s deputy PM just now; he mentioned BB670. Once we have clarity on that, I’ll update.)
This makes more sense then the serial numbers quoted earlier.
http://en.calameo.com/read/0003162864c5d46c7d25f
06-44-00 Page 235
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biofouling - a biological oceanography perspective
The amount of biofouling - by barnacles and other organisms will depend on the water the object has gone through and in the oligotrophic (low productivity) water of the Southern India Ocean it will have been MUCH MUCH slower than in say the coastal North Atlantic. On the likely tracks the flaperon would mostly have floated through the marine equivalent of a desert.
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources...production.jpg
The image linked to here shows the point, it is a global composite of phytoplankton production based on SEAWIFs satellite imagery where bright red is highest and indigo and violet lowest.
Nonetheless, there should be a succession of diatoms and other microorganisms on it, so it should be possible to reconstruct a history of where it has gone using a mix of taxonomic and geochemical data. The most useful aspect should be the first colonisers - which would give an indication of how far south the flaperon entered the water
http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources...production.jpg
The image linked to here shows the point, it is a global composite of phytoplankton production based on SEAWIFs satellite imagery where bright red is highest and indigo and violet lowest.
Nonetheless, there should be a succession of diatoms and other microorganisms on it, so it should be possible to reconstruct a history of where it has gone using a mix of taxonomic and geochemical data. The most useful aspect should be the first colonisers - which would give an indication of how far south the flaperon entered the water
Last edited by helicosphaera; 30th Jul 2015 at 10:15. Reason: adding link to image
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Lost WA boat found 7400km away in Madagascar after eight months
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A suitcase was found near the flaperon.
Débris d'avion : une valise également retrouvée - réunion 1ère
Débris d'avion : une valise également retrouvée - réunion 1ère
Local reporter Antoine Forester is providing updates of the search for more debris on his twitter feed
https://twitter.com/a_forestier
https://twitter.com/a_forestier
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@ bud leon,
We are looking at 16 months. Would you try the model from a starting position of 30S 98E, from where I suspect you'll find a far better match.
Here is a more accurate current model done by UWA - it's a good fit.
