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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 14th Jan 2015, 22:05
  #2041 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Photo citations

Would those posting photos please cite the source address? Thank you RetF4.

Tail location where discovered is no strong indication of impact location. Partial bouyancy, highest just after impact, is all that is required for drift. With any buoyancy at all the assembly would have been a vertical sail in the current. Some corroboration would be the current direction. Distance could be nothing more than rate of loss of buoyancy until seabed anchoring overcame current.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 14th Jan 2015 at 22:19. Reason: buoyancy rate
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Old 14th Jan 2015, 22:26
  #2042 (permalink)  
 
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Barking Mad wrote

"Before we even get to attempting to practise stalling, in sims of dubious fidelity, how many airline crew posters on this forum have NEVER hand-flown their 'frame, at max mass for the max cruise altitude for that mass?"

I have never done that in my current bus for the stated reasons and SOP and for reasons of both practicality and courtesy to my passengers. If I ever had to it would be briefly while clearance to a lower altitude was acquired. I do it in the sim from time to time, but only for a few minutes between tasks.

Having said that, in normal law in smooth conditions it is easy. Add complications and it becomes harder quickly. Add cognitive overload and it becomes very hard indeed.

I have hand flown several other transport jets at max level for prolonged periods without problem, but that requires a current agile scan rate and younger reflexes to make it appear effortless.
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Old 14th Jan 2015, 22:45
  #2043 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting to see an unpackaged life vest in the new photo thread from previous post
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 00:10
  #2044 (permalink)  
 
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Replies to posts

RE various posts:
FDR CVR recovery will tell some things about what the aircraft did, and what the pilots did, but not why the pilots did it, which is what prevention really needs to know. What 'new' money would be assigned to finding why pilots acted as they did in future incidents?

RE Algol, last seen at #1966 (though currently pg 99 will not load): ”Having seen the aircraft after the event, and spoken with my colleagues, it was no ordinary CB. NASA commented that the flight probably only penetrated the outer edges before they turned/got spat out. They also speculated that further penetration would almost certainly have resulted in a breakup.”

Virtually all forum comments to date treat cb's as dangerous but infer some kind of ordinariness about them. A quote such as “There are cb's in Europe too” infers European cb characteristics are within a range of characteristics that include ITCZ cb's, enabled by a wide but vague inclusivity of cb characteristics, that also manages an equally wide acceptance of moisture complexities near the equator.

Re FullWings perma:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8825000
“You had to agressively reduce the AoA by pitching down to a far greater degree than in any other flight phase.”

Given the factors of narrow cruise speed range, limitations of live weather info, and inability of aircraft or pilots from recovering from wx caused or faulty instrument upsets outside of a narrow AOA range, 'more training' suggested by many seems to offer very few benefits.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 15th Jan 2015 at 16:21. Reason: Reduced suggestion of conjecture
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 00:20
  #2045 (permalink)  
 
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I personally am far from certain the accident was even related to a CB. Maybe, maybe not. We are only days from knowing the truth, I would refrain from spinning theories that may have little to do with reality.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:05
  #2046 (permalink)  
 
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porterhouse:


I am personally am far from certain the accident was even related to a CB. Maybe, maybe not. We are only days from knowing the truth, I would refrain from spinning theories that may have little to do with reality.
You are "spot on" as to what caused the accident.

Having said that, I remain skeptical that we will learn the truth considering the country that has the recorders.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:13
  #2047 (permalink)  
 
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As yet, we don't even know for sure whether there were two functional pilots in the cockpit at the start of whatever chain of events led to this catastrophe. The greater probability is that there were, but nothing can yet be ruled in or out in that regard.

All we know is that a seemingly very experienced captain in terms of handling conditions in that part of the world, and his FO, ended up in the drink.

I hope the interpretation of the FDR and CVR is more accurate than the head of Barsarnas has been of late.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:27
  #2048 (permalink)  
 
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aterpster

I just learned that indonesia is trying to decode the boxes themselves instead of sending them to established and respected labs in other countries.

Highly disturbing.

I am unaware of how things work in that part of the world. But would always like to know how money is flowing, from who to whom...if the cause of the accident completely exhonerates the airline...wellllllll
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:32
  #2049 (permalink)  
 
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Photo from NY Daily news

Photo from the NY Daily news purports to show an "Airbus Investigator". Interesting, rather low profile.

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopo...a-airplane.jpg
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:33
  #2050 (permalink)  
 
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I remain skeptical that we will learn the truth considering the country that has the recorders.
I disagree, I think we will learn the truth, Indonesia did have their share of air accidents and their investigative body each time did sufficient job. Perhaps their final reports are not as polished and comprehensive but no one ever questioned their main results.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 02:37
  #2051 (permalink)  
 
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@ BJ-ENG - Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic etc

Latest official information is that both recorders were found under the right wing and/or right wing/fuselage combination.
Latest official information states that only the right wing was located.
Officials have not provided information on the left wing, the cockpit, or the second engine. Spotting the first engine was mentioned earlier. But there is no mention of actual location yet.


BJ-ENG. Thanks for your reply. You introduce some interesting points that I would like to look at.

Before doing that, my line of thinking on water landing (before I read your reply, so there may be some duplication in it) was roughly thinking about two different and both basic scenarios.

First scenario, the pilots somehow regained control after losing it (losing it for whatever reason). Then they would probably try a ‘mild’ pitch up approach (would be interesting to know what kind of procedure AirAsia has for water landings). Which might lead to a ‘tail separates first’. The Hudson landing was one of amazing airmanship, but luckily not in ‘open water’. Even there, significant tail damage is visible (there were some good posts on that earlier, thanks). Damage that looks similar but, at first sight, not of the ‘same type’.

Second scenario, they did not regain control, or not enough. Which would probably lead to a ‘one wing first’ (there is quite a swell in the area...), followed by a slam on the water, leading to a break ‘somewhere forward of the wing’, and the - by then rotating aircraft (along the longitudinal axis) - losing the horizontal and thereby wringing the lower part of the tail section off.
The widebody jet crashing close to a beach in Africa was not recovered as far as I know. If there is information, that would be interesting.

The second option appeared more probably to me. It would also explain something of the ‘giant hand’ damage on the aft section, pressure bulkhead and some other parts. What made it less probable – at least to me, and until now – was that I would expect the second scenario to lead to quite a different debris field from the one we have. A surge through the fuselage would sweep out a lot of material that floats. Hope you can give your views on that.

Also hope they find the cockpit and the other wing, which will tell us more.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 03:12
  #2052 (permalink)  
 
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Debris Field Map

We need a detailed large scale Debris Field Map/Chart, with accurate coordinates.

There has been plenty of time for the Navy to publish an accurate and up to date one.

I can not find one.

Does anyone have one, or a link to one, other than the basic one posted a few days ago ?

With regard to the airframe itself, it seems very odd that all that seems to have been located so far is the tail, cvr, fdr, and the central part of the wing/fuselage. So far as I can gather, three of the traditional four corners are still missing, the nose, and both wing tips. What about the main engines and pylons ?

The reports that the cvr and frd were found with "the wing" is odd.

The ths looks like a wing to most people, especially to a navy diver in the murky depths, or perhaps it is a language translation issue, perhaps even a "jounalist" issue.

It seems likely that they were with the missing sector of the pressure bulkhead, since they were attached to the structure right next to it. Did that part, remain with the bottom of the fuselage as it fracured longitudinally, and subsequently folded under the remnants of the rear fuselage and wing as it sank and settled on the bottom (in which case the "under the wing" may make sense and be correct), or did that section separate and go with the ths, apu and the remainder of the bottom of the rear part of the empenage ?
So, have they found the ths and/or apu or not ?
Can anyone clear that up ?

Next point.

An engine has been mentioned, but which engine, and where is it ?
Was it the apu ?
Was it a main engine ?
If so, where is the other main engine ?

Why have they apparently wound back the search as reported ?

Are they assuming that the recoders will tell all, so no further recovery is required ?
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 03:29
  #2053 (permalink)  
 
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As HarryMann said a few pages back, anything is possible hitting the water at anything over 100 knots airspeed. A wing low at impact could cause a cartwheel, breaking off the tail, cockpit, and a wing which all float and then sink at different rates being carried by the current.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 03:43
  #2054 (permalink)  
 
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I just learned that indonesia is trying to decode the boxes themselves instead of sending them to established and respected labs in other countries.

Highly disturbing.
Why? It's exactly what they did in the Russian crash two years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_...rjet_100_crash

I won't say the report was the best thing I've ever read but they did a good enough job with it. I have full confidence that the Indonesians can handle this crash investigation properly.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 03:51
  #2055 (permalink)  
 
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It wont just be the Indonesians looking at the FDR and CVR information. There will be Airbus reps, Australian FR/CVR specialists etc.

We need a detailed large scale Debris Field Map/Chart, with accurate coordinates.
I'm not sure who "we" are but the official report should be able to provide that info. The public does not have a right to this stuff before the investigators complete their work.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 04:08
  #2056 (permalink)  
 
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I disagree, I think we will learn the truth, Indonesia did have their share of air accidents and their investigative body each time did sufficient job. Perhaps their final reports are not as polished and comprehensive but no one ever questioned their main results.
I agree. I think all must understand that Indonesia has a new, highly progressive President: Joko Widodo. It is in his and the countries best interest to improve air safety in Indonesia and repair their image abroad.

Corruption runs rampant in Indonesia, and it seems that this has been unearthed in the Aviation sector. Expect major clean-up, including criminal investigations by the highly effective KPK (corruption eradication commision).
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 04:19
  #2057 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting to see an unpackaged life vest in the new photo thread from previous post
Not really. Flimsy plastic lifejacket containers designed to be opened in a hurry are not going to be crashproof. Aircraft accidents have been known to strip layers of clothing off people.

I haven't seen the photo, but perhaps it was an attendant's demo life vest?
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 05:14
  #2058 (permalink)  
 
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@glendalogoon: 'I am unaware of how things work in that part of the world. But would always like to know how money is flowing, from who to whom...if the cause of the accident completely exhonerates the airline…wellllllll'

Tony Fernandes (Air Asia) is not an idiot. He's running a sophisticated, international operation.
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 06:45
  #2059 (permalink)  
 
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Hydrodynamic forces in accidents

If you want an insight into the forces and effects involved, have a look at this crew:

-The Bluebird Project | Home

They have done an astonishing job, and that includes very detailed forensic analysis of what happens when water meets metal at high speed.

(It's a fascinating project and website in any case)
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Old 15th Jan 2015, 07:02
  #2060 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RU4Real View Post
Interesting to see an unpackaged life vest in the new photo thread from previous post
Do you mean this photo? (cropped)

Sorry, I don't find it interesting at all considering the condition of the wreckage.

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