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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 1st Apr 2014, 17:35
  #8941 (permalink)  
 
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fish Ditching under control

While I have great difficulty understanding just what is to be gained by mysteriously disappearing without a trace, there's a possibility that VNAV could be set up to start a descent at a waypoint where you would be down to minimum fuel, but you would still have to be conscious to put down flaps to achieve a ditching at minimum speed.

Without flaps, the speed would be much higher and we could expect some breakup and release of buoyant items in the fuselage.

The longer we go without turning up any debris, the more it looks like a controlled ditching - - with the very faint possibility the Inmarsat folks missed something in their calculations.

Given the more Northerly position estimate of the ditching, it's reasonable to expect some debris, if there was any, to make its way to WA. The drift models will suggest a time when it may be useful to check WA beaches at low tide.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 17:43
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Originally Posted by Robin Clark
Although the timing of the last few pings does support a relatively straight line flight , surely it is not the only solution ...????....... The last four complete pings only really show that the source was south of the equator , and in an hour moved about 186 nm further Eastward/further from the satellite's longitude. , then another 240 some nm East during the next hour , and then about 266 nm in the following hour . This could mean a crippled aircraft was flying slowly SSE but turning gently left to end up flying East ........putting it in the sea somewhere between the equator and 10 degrees South latitude.....??....
My understanding of the INMARSAT information is that it is both timing and doppler shift. The timng gives the range ring, the doppler shift an indication of the relative velocities of the aircraft and satellite during that ping. The velocity of the satellite is known so the velocity of the aircraft across the range ring can be calculated. Thus for any likely speed two tracks for the aircraft can be calculated for each ping. Then the probabilities come in plus the airborne time vs endurance at varoius speeds and levels. I would think by logical steps the possible aircraft htrack, speed, and level can be estimated reasonably accurately.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 18:10
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MH370 wreckage, probable cause may never be found, says ex-NTSB investigator | Leeham News and Comment
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 18:17
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Gayford and all. I would be curious to know how common it would be for ATC to only use secondary RADAR.
Not uncommon at all in areas with civil ATC where it's very unlikely that unknown aircraft would appear. That doesn't stop the mil having primary radar coverage too if there is some threat perceived but civil ATC often does not have easy access to the primary picture. The benefits are a 'cleaner' picture and cost savings by not having to install and operate a primary radar.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 18:21
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HMS Tireless joins search: BBC News - MH370: UK submarine joins search for missing plane
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 18:50
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I don't see anything unusual about losing comm after the frequency change hand off, this happens on regular basis. Usually a quick switch back to the previous frequency will clear up the error. However this is the most likely place where a mistake is to be made by the controller assigning the new freq or the pilots receiving the new frequency. I see too much focus on this being an intentional nordo situation.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 18:52
  #8947 (permalink)  
 
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Could it be that the 01:01:14 Tx was initiated by the crew to remind ATC that they were still on frequency?
Without access to the full frequency transcript, it may have been that MAS370 was the only a/c on the Lumpur Control frequency, or had not heard any other RTF for 10 minutes and therefore thought it timely to remind ATC they were still there.
This happened often at the area-control units where I worked, especially after the traffic 'turndown' associated with the global recession.
On several occasions, I warned flight-crews that if the RTF sounds unusually quiet, it was because yourselves and I are the only people here.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 19:04
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Hishammuddin Hussein, Malaysia's transport minister, said it was unfair for all of the blame to focus on the Malaysian response to the crisis.

"Just putting MAS on the witness stand (is not enough). We also need to bear in mind what is the role and responsibility of Rolls-Royce, of Boeing, of all these expert agencies. Where is their voice ?" He told Chinese TV.

Make of that what you will !
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 19:29
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Only official spokespersons should be heard. If it isn't the Malaysians they should say so and identify who it is.

From my narrow viewpoint there are too many voices speaking from within Malaysia without support from the other parties.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 19:42
  #8950 (permalink)  
 
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Chronus

From your declared profile, I will forgive your ignorance, on this occasion, but request that appreciate that you have 2 ears and 1 mouth, and suggest you use them in that proportion to learn from those that are professionals.

It is perfectly normal around the world to report when you are maintaining your cleared level, for ATC information as much as anything. Often it will alert them to the possibility of re-clearing another aircraft to a FL you have now cleared. Quite often it allows you to benefit, and be cleared to your requested level and save some fuel by getting a climb a minute or so before ATC might have noticed on secondary radar that you were maintaining your level. When it comes to primary only radar cover, a report of maintaining cleared FL is even more inportant.

As I said before, sometimes you forget is you called level. It is then simpler to repeat the call to be sure. Nothing should be inferred from it, none of us has 100% total recall.

Good night.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 21:15
  #8951 (permalink)  
 
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Live telephone interview this Wed morning with Angus Houston, retired chief of the Australian Airforce, who is in charge of the new joint agency MH 370 coordination centre, including search organisations, governments, industry, family and media.

He said the ATC transcript appears as a normal pilot exchange.

He also stated that they will continue to search and to search with vigour.


There is no time frame, but if nothing is found on the surface they will have to make other plans.

He reiterated that search was based on satellite datum and unambiguously kept referring to the plane in the Ocean.

When asked, he said was not aware that a British submarine was to join the search and commented that it was currently 5am his local time.

ABC shortly after the interview stated that an Malaysian minister announced the subs involvement via twitter in the early hours.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 21:41
  #8952 (permalink)  
 
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The transcript....and the "pause".

Sounds like it could be due to anything "minor".
It's NOT a long pause. Five seconds or less until the reply (and it'll take a second to finish the rest of his sentence, so 3 or 4 seconds at the outside).

The "odd" bit is, they included it in the transcript !
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 21:41
  #8953 (permalink)  
 
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why to ask Q about com

even an RF com can be forensically distinguished to be or not to be spoken by only one person or more, doesnt it
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 21:43
  #8954 (permalink)  
 
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2dPilot
?... is 'unreadable' usual with 'local' (ground control) communications?
Yes. You often get more than one station transmitting at the same time. The transmissions interfer with each other and all you get is a 'garbled' or 'unreadable' transmission. Once again completely typical and nothing to be getting our knickers in a twist over.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 21:58
  #8955 (permalink)  
 
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Is it SOP for Malaysia Airlines to state the tail number as part of the pushback clearance read back?
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 22:14
  #8956 (permalink)  
 
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IATA Operations Conference

IATA chief: 'We cannot let an aircraft simply vanish' - 4/1/2014 - Flight Global

"International Air Transport Association director general and chief executive officer Tony Tyler, speaking in Kuala Lumpur at IATA's annual operations conference . . . says a viable process for tracking aircraft in airspace beyond radar coverage must be agreed by December this year. . . .

Tyler says IATA will convene an expert task force, that will include ICAO. 'This group will examine all of the options available for tracking commercial aircraft against the parameters of implementation, investment, time and complexity to achieve the desired coverage. This group will report its conclusions by December 2014, reflecting the need for urgent action and careful analysis,' he says."

IATA task force to explore live data streaming: Tyler - 4/1/2014 - Flight Global

"IATA director general Tony Tyler says that the loss of an aircraft such as Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 must never happen again, and that live streaming of data is something that needs to be seriously examined. . . .

The IATA Ops conference has a very strong focus on safety, but its presence in KL during the MH370 crisis is a coincidence, as it was organised months ago. . . .

He said that live streaming of data is an issue that should be 'looked at quite carefully,' but questioned the technical practicality of having 100,000 flights daily streaming all data."
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 23:28
  #8957 (permalink)  
 
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with the aircraft heading off into the wild blue yonder on whatever heading/track was last selected on the MCP?
Now, what remains is to explain why the aircraft changed heading many times and why it made those turns in places which are far removed from any alternate airports. You have to be much more specific to have viable hypothesis.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 23:33
  #8958 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Vinnie Boombatz
'We cannot let an aircraft simply vanish'
Who is "we" in this case? I, for one, had not a bloody thing to do with MH 370 vanishing, and neither did most of the people he was talking to.
"IATA director general Tony Tyler says that the loss of an aircraft such as Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 must never happen again,
When I hear the term "must never happen again" I immediately wait for the other shoe to drop, as whomever is saying that is either selling something or an utter moron.
Originally Posted by Vinnie Boombatz
but questioned the technical practicality of having 100,000 flights daily streaming all data."
Ah, a grain of sense entered the proceedings ...
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 23:34
  #8959 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks, that's VERY helpful. I tried a search and came up with nothing.
Sorry I was not aware that we all had to search for your immediate needs.
The thread starts at 1. Just start reading.
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Old 1st Apr 2014, 23:47
  #8960 (permalink)  
 
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Primary Radar Coverage and use by ATC

There have been some posts regarding the use of primary radar (PSR) by ATC. The normal configuration for radars used by ATC in Malaysia is a 60 nm range PSR, co-mounted with a 200 nm range SSR, turning at 15 RPM. Of course these ranges are limited by the radar horizon and any terrain obstructions to the line of sight signal. The Military ATC radars are configured as a 50 nm PSR co-mounted with a 250 nm SSR, rotating at 15 RPM. See the Malaysian AIP ENR 1.6 for details.
The PSR/SSR configuration described above is common in many other countries, including Australia. In theory you can do without the PSR and just use SSR, however for busy approach control airspace (within 60 nm), PSR is used as an insurance against non-transponder aircraft (equipment failure, not switched on etc.). The PSR/SSR co-mounted configuration is the most economical way to provide ATS.
Long range PSR is much more expensive, and the rotation rate has to be slowed to about 5 RPM to obtain ranges to about 200 to 230 nm. 5 RPM will not normally support the use of 3 nm separation in approach airspace, thus reducing capacity. Hence the use of short range PSR/long range SSR @ 15 RPM – it provides surveillance for both approach control using PSR and SSR, and enroute surveillance using SSR only. ADS-B and Multilateration surveillance data are now also displayed at many ATCCs, but these, like SSR, are dependant or cooperative systems – no transponder and you are not seen.
It should be noted that at the time when MAS 370 disappeared, the airports and approach control services at Kota Bharu and Langkawi were closed. However the radars were turning to send SSR data to the KL ATCC at Subang for enroute surveillance. Butterworth/Penang, Kuantan, Subang and KL were open. In all cases all radar data would have been recorded.
Singapore ATCC has 220 nm range PSR, and 250 nm SSR coverage surveillance. However the LKP is 340 nm from Singapore, 96 nm from Kota Bharu and 290 nm from HCM and would be out of ATC PSR coverage. The Air Defence Radars are/should be a different story.
As an ex ATC (including time in Malaysia) I agree that the transcript shows a normal situation. I would be more interested in the transcripts of air/ground and ATC coordination communications after the MAS 370 data block disappeared from the ATCC displays. These may be revealed when the initial investigation report is released.
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