Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Having read all the posts on this thread and followed this incident closely since it happened, I conclude that the Malaysian authorities and others have been transparent in releasing information. The problem is that every snippet of information has been challenged, twisted and analysed to death on this forum. The fuel load of the aircraft, Inmarsat pings, acars inoperative, flight crew and pilots, everything that has been issued has been challenged and more information demanded.
This incident started with the authorities completely in the dark, just like the rest of us. As the investigation has progressed quite a lot of information has been released or established from other sources. Can we just try an accept that the information supplied to date is the best that the authorities have, or are prepared to share at this stage of the investigation.
It is pointless being supplied with the most accurate data available and then speculating what would have happened if the data was different.
I know from working in the Far East that when pushed people tend to give you the answer they think you want to hear, rather than admit they don't know, but in these unprecedented circumstances I think that the authorities are doing their best to conform to Western expectations of transparency and accuracy.
So can we give them a break and confine the speculation to what is officially known and just accept that some information is not going to be made available.
This incident started with the authorities completely in the dark, just like the rest of us. As the investigation has progressed quite a lot of information has been released or established from other sources. Can we just try an accept that the information supplied to date is the best that the authorities have, or are prepared to share at this stage of the investigation.
It is pointless being supplied with the most accurate data available and then speculating what would have happened if the data was different.
I know from working in the Far East that when pushed people tend to give you the answer they think you want to hear, rather than admit they don't know, but in these unprecedented circumstances I think that the authorities are doing their best to conform to Western expectations of transparency and accuracy.
So can we give them a break and confine the speculation to what is officially known and just accept that some information is not going to be made available.
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No Hijacker or suicidal pilot would let the fuel run down that low because it means you were no longer able to control the outcome.
I don't think any pilot suicide has been planned technically in this manner or been extended to a 'no fuel' situation - more a take control, point the nose down and go scenario.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
There have been several recorded instances of aircraft making soft landings without human intervention. Admittedly the ones I know of were military jets where the crew had banged out, but there is no reason to suppose that the aircraft may have made a very shallow descent, alighted and remained intact.
Had this been the case, and passengers were not previously incapacitated, then there would be no reason why life rafts and slides were not deployed.
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777 Fire
In addition to looking at all aspects, lets not forget 777s have had fires breaking out in wiring due to unexplained reasons!!
One very fine example was Egyptair 777-200, luckily it happened on ground Accident: Egyptair B772 at Cairo on Jul 29th 2011, cockpit fire
and if something similar happened to MH370, we all know how limited options crew had???
One very fine example was Egyptair 777-200, luckily it happened on ground Accident: Egyptair B772 at Cairo on Jul 29th 2011, cockpit fire
and if something similar happened to MH370, we all know how limited options crew had???
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Nonsens ?
Today I learned three new things:
1) Thai primary radar painted MH370 heading SW (new information, previously it was W) minutes after transponder loss => could mean MH370 wanted to return to KUL, with heading roughly 200°.
2) The NTSB seems to be convinced MH370 went "southward" to antartica with heading roughly 200° (as of routes depicted in search areas of AMSA charts).
3) If in track mode the FMC runs out of way points, i.e it reaches the last way point and no further way point is programmed the a/c falls back into HDG mode with heading previously set.
So if MH370 went to IGREX in track mode (why?), and that was the only/last waypoint programmed, it would then fall into HDG mode. Maybe HDG was still set to 200° from the previous attempt to return to KUL. That would be consistent with MH370 ending up where AMSA is looking for it.
1) Thai primary radar painted MH370 heading SW (new information, previously it was W) minutes after transponder loss => could mean MH370 wanted to return to KUL, with heading roughly 200°.
2) The NTSB seems to be convinced MH370 went "southward" to antartica with heading roughly 200° (as of routes depicted in search areas of AMSA charts).
3) If in track mode the FMC runs out of way points, i.e it reaches the last way point and no further way point is programmed the a/c falls back into HDG mode with heading previously set.
So if MH370 went to IGREX in track mode (why?), and that was the only/last waypoint programmed, it would then fall into HDG mode. Maybe HDG was still set to 200° from the previous attempt to return to KUL. That would be consistent with MH370 ending up where AMSA is looking for it.
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@Don't Hang Up
Agree entirely - but I was just pointing out that there other possibilities than same arc=>stationary=>landed=>hijacked, etc., etc....
And certainly calculations of likely positions from the ping history will be messy and fraught - but it sounds as though they have little else to go on at the moment, unfortunately.
However as a general rule, the chances of being the same range from the satellite after one hour of flying... Well it's possible but one heck of a coincidence.
And certainly calculations of likely positions from the ping history will be messy and fraught - but it sounds as though they have little else to go on at the moment, unfortunately.
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Not Much Help From The Press
Is there a respectable summary anywhere out there on the technical details? Anyone less familiar with modern avionics than contributors to this forum is not being helped a lot by the press reports on this case. There is loose talk by the yard from journos, who clearly know even less than I do, about comms systems, satellite tracking and the like; the ones I've read clearly have only the vaguest idea as to what they are talking about. To be fair, that's just the newspapers (and the idiot box, of course), where it's naive to expect much informed comment.
My question is whether there has appeared anywhere a respectable itemisation of the onboard and external systems and what is available from them - or at least what the authorities have chosen to release along those lines?
My question is whether there has appeared anywhere a respectable itemisation of the onboard and external systems and what is available from them - or at least what the authorities have chosen to release along those lines?
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If they tried to return to the closest airport it does not make any sense to see these waypoints in the FMC. The 777 FMC has an Alternate airport function which at any time shows min 4 of the closest suitable airports. It takes 2 button pushes then to navigate directly to the selected airport via FMC which any B777 pilot would have used if on fire or any other emergency which warranted immediate landing.
ELT has an Off switch in cockpit.
ELT has an Off switch in cockpit.
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IOR Orbital elements
My experience, working with orbit analysts on many satellites, some geostationary, some geosync, some other, these are the most incredible analysts there are. They, by discipline, leave no stone unturned. So I am sure they have analyzed IOR's orbit to the n'th degree and have taken all this into account, along with error bars.
One question I have is how accurate they know the turn-around time for the ACARs TNC on the aircraft, as this device was not designed for ranging. My experience of TNCs are that they are software driven, not hardware, and there could be some uncertainty, on the order of maybe microseconds, depending upon the microprocessor clock speed. A microsecond is ~1000 feet, so I expect the uncertainty = uncertainty time / cos(sat elev), so maybe the uncertainty due to the TNC is on the order of a quarter mile or so, which, again is in the noise?
One question I have is how accurate they know the turn-around time for the ACARs TNC on the aircraft, as this device was not designed for ranging. My experience of TNCs are that they are software driven, not hardware, and there could be some uncertainty, on the order of maybe microseconds, depending upon the microprocessor clock speed. A microsecond is ~1000 feet, so I expect the uncertainty = uncertainty time / cos(sat elev), so maybe the uncertainty due to the TNC is on the order of a quarter mile or so, which, again is in the noise?
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@ANDYJS 45,000' CRUISE
When will people get it in their noggin that a 777-200 WILL NOT achieve, let alone "cruise" at FL450. 
There has never been any accurate nor reliable indication as to MH370 climbing to FL450. Primary radar can only roughly approximate aircraft altitude from slant angle and range. And as for the question:
2 Trent's operating at max continuos, clawing at the sky trying to attain FL450 tend to consume fuel at a prodigious rate compared to a cruise power setting at the optimum FL ......
There has never been any accurate nor reliable indication as to MH370 climbing to FL450. Primary radar can only roughly approximate aircraft altitude from slant angle and range. And as for the question:
2 Trent's operating at max continuos, clawing at the sky trying to attain FL450 tend to consume fuel at a prodigious rate compared to a cruise power setting at the optimum FL ......
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Today a number of experts have been cited:
Steven Frischling, US|Aviation Security expert - taken by force - his source, Department of Homeland Security - a pilot involved incident as there was no evidence to support a crash. One metal cargo container position is unaccounted for on the manifest.
John Cane, cane Associates Aviation Consultants, former Lt Col US Marine Corp and Harrier pilot - crashed in the Indian Ocean or in Thai or Malay jungle - not a malfunction as it flew for 6 hours. Logic -criminal act.
Jim Brauchie, former USAF Pilot now aviation lawyer - crashed in ocean and not jungle as not picked up by radar. Landing somewhere, not probable.
Robert Mark, commercial pilot and editor of Aviation International News Safety magazine - outlandish becoming more plausible. Shadowed Singapore Airliner same as Israelies have done once.
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Any attempt at calculating movement is meaningless unless you know the tolerance of the ping-ranging in the first place. The maths just doesn't work. However as a general rule, the chances of being the same range from the satellite after one hour of flying... Well it's possible but one heck of a coincidence.
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It was suggested that the timing of that moment to take a break would be a bit weird. 40 mins in and precisely between ATC. Doesn't make a lot of sense but then what does...?
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i can't believe the Malaysians and the media are throwing the "data deleted from the pilot's flight sim" as a new lead, new carrot thrown at people. Oh yes, like no one deletes old routes, old files from flight sims, games, software. Why don't they wait until they analyze the deleted data and identify it before making it public.
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Shortly after the aircraft was posted as missing a Malaysian Government minister, or perhaps an airline official, announced that the aircraft had undergone a maintenance check ten days previous to this flight.
Does anyone know if the following questions have been asked and/or addressed?:
1. What items were covered on this maintenance check and were any snags discovered and rectified ?
2. Had the aircraft flown since that check?
3. If so, were any unservicebilities logged and if so what were they?
There is undoubtedly vested interest involved in banging on about hijacking rather than more likely scenarios involving aircraft failure.
Does anyone know if the following questions have been asked and/or addressed?:
1. What items were covered on this maintenance check and were any snags discovered and rectified ?
2. Had the aircraft flown since that check?
3. If so, were any unservicebilities logged and if so what were they?
There is undoubtedly vested interest involved in banging on about hijacking rather than more likely scenarios involving aircraft failure.
the lunatic fringe
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I could have sworn that tvasquez had posted some surface current info previously in this thread, but I can't find it.
A link to his post on this thread...http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8385324
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If it went down in the sea, wouldn't they have listened?
The SOFAR Channel
NOAA Ocean Explorer Home
(bolds are mine)
This "channeling" of sound occurs because of the properties of sound and the temperature and pressure differences at different depths in the ocean. The ocean is divided into horizontal layers in which the speed of sound is greatly influenced by temperature in the upper layers and by pressure in the deeper layers. As temperature decreases, the speed of sound decreases, and as pressure (depth) increases, the speed of sound increases. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling through a thermocline (a region of rapid change in temperature with depth) tends to bend downward as the speed of sound decreases with decreasing water temperature, but then is refracted back upward as the speed of sound increases with increasing depth and pressure. This up-down-up-down bending of low-frequency sound waves allows the sound to travel many thousands of meters without the signal losing significant energy. The depth of this “channel” varies in different oceans depending on the salinity, the temperature, and depth of the water. At low and middle latitudes, the SOFAR channel axis lies between 600-1200 m below the sea surface. It is deepest in the subtropics and comes to the surface in high latitudes, where the sound propagates in the surface layer. Scientists often take advantage of the properties of the SOFAR channel. We have learned that by placing hydrophones at just the right depth (that is, at the axis of the sound channel) we are able to record sounds such as whale calls, earthquakes and man-made noise that occur many kilometers from the hydrophone. As a matter of fact, sometimes we can hear low-frequency sounds across entire ocean basins!
Faster than the Speed of Sound...
The speed of a wave is the rate at which vibrations move through the medium. Sound moves at a faster speed in water (1500 meters/sec) than in air (about 340 meters/sec) because the mechanical properties of water differ from air. Temperature also affects the speed of sound (e.g. sound travels faster in warm water than in cold water) and is very influential in some parts of the ocean. Remember that wavelength and frequency are related because the lower the frequency the longer the wavelength. More specifically, the wavelength of a sound equals the speed of sound in either air or water divided by the frequency of the wave. Therefore, a 20 Hz sound wave is 75 m long in the water (1500/20 = 75) whereas a 20 Hz sound wave in air is only 17 m long (340/20 = 17) in air.
As we descend below the surface of the sea, the speed of sound decreases with decreasing temperature. At the bottom of the thermocline, the speed of sound reaches its minimum; this is also the axis of the sound channel. Below the thermocline the temperature remains constant, but pressure increases which causes the speed of sound to increase again. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling in the sound channel bends up and down and up and down and can travel thousands of meters.
The SOFAR Channel
Sound in the sea can often be “trapped” and effectively carried very long distances by the “deep sound channel ” that exists in the ocean. This SOFAR or SOund Fixing And Ranging channel is so named because it was discovered that there was a "channel" in the deep ocean within which the acoustic energy from a small explosive charge (deployed in the water by a downed aviator) could travel over long distances. An array of hydrophones could be used to roughly locate the source of the charge thereby allowing rescue of downed pilots far out to sea. Sound, and especially low-frequency sound, can travel thousands of meters with very little loss of signal.
The field of ocean acoustics provides scientists with the tools needed to quantitatively describe sound in the sea. By measuring the frequency, amplitude, location and seasonality of sounds in the sea, a great deal can be learned about our oceanic environment and its inhabitants. Hydroacoustic monitoring (listening to underwater sounds) has allowed scientists to measure global warming, listen to earthquakes and the movement of magma through the sea floor during major volcanic eruptions, and to record low-frequency calls of large whales the world over. As our oceans become more noisy each year, the field of ocean acoustics will grow and only become more essential.
NOAA Ocean Explorer Home
(bolds are mine)
This "channeling" of sound occurs because of the properties of sound and the temperature and pressure differences at different depths in the ocean. The ocean is divided into horizontal layers in which the speed of sound is greatly influenced by temperature in the upper layers and by pressure in the deeper layers. As temperature decreases, the speed of sound decreases, and as pressure (depth) increases, the speed of sound increases. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling through a thermocline (a region of rapid change in temperature with depth) tends to bend downward as the speed of sound decreases with decreasing water temperature, but then is refracted back upward as the speed of sound increases with increasing depth and pressure. This up-down-up-down bending of low-frequency sound waves allows the sound to travel many thousands of meters without the signal losing significant energy. The depth of this “channel” varies in different oceans depending on the salinity, the temperature, and depth of the water. At low and middle latitudes, the SOFAR channel axis lies between 600-1200 m below the sea surface. It is deepest in the subtropics and comes to the surface in high latitudes, where the sound propagates in the surface layer. Scientists often take advantage of the properties of the SOFAR channel. We have learned that by placing hydrophones at just the right depth (that is, at the axis of the sound channel) we are able to record sounds such as whale calls, earthquakes and man-made noise that occur many kilometers from the hydrophone. As a matter of fact, sometimes we can hear low-frequency sounds across entire ocean basins!
Faster than the Speed of Sound...
The speed of a wave is the rate at which vibrations move through the medium. Sound moves at a faster speed in water (1500 meters/sec) than in air (about 340 meters/sec) because the mechanical properties of water differ from air. Temperature also affects the speed of sound (e.g. sound travels faster in warm water than in cold water) and is very influential in some parts of the ocean. Remember that wavelength and frequency are related because the lower the frequency the longer the wavelength. More specifically, the wavelength of a sound equals the speed of sound in either air or water divided by the frequency of the wave. Therefore, a 20 Hz sound wave is 75 m long in the water (1500/20 = 75) whereas a 20 Hz sound wave in air is only 17 m long (340/20 = 17) in air.
As we descend below the surface of the sea, the speed of sound decreases with decreasing temperature. At the bottom of the thermocline, the speed of sound reaches its minimum; this is also the axis of the sound channel. Below the thermocline the temperature remains constant, but pressure increases which causes the speed of sound to increase again. Sound waves bend, or refract, towards the area of minimum sound speed. Therefore, a sound wave traveling in the sound channel bends up and down and up and down and can travel thousands of meters.
The SOFAR Channel
Sound in the sea can often be “trapped” and effectively carried very long distances by the “deep sound channel ” that exists in the ocean. This SOFAR or SOund Fixing And Ranging channel is so named because it was discovered that there was a "channel" in the deep ocean within which the acoustic energy from a small explosive charge (deployed in the water by a downed aviator) could travel over long distances. An array of hydrophones could be used to roughly locate the source of the charge thereby allowing rescue of downed pilots far out to sea. Sound, and especially low-frequency sound, can travel thousands of meters with very little loss of signal.
The field of ocean acoustics provides scientists with the tools needed to quantitatively describe sound in the sea. By measuring the frequency, amplitude, location and seasonality of sounds in the sea, a great deal can be learned about our oceanic environment and its inhabitants. Hydroacoustic monitoring (listening to underwater sounds) has allowed scientists to measure global warming, listen to earthquakes and the movement of magma through the sea floor during major volcanic eruptions, and to record low-frequency calls of large whales the world over. As our oceans become more noisy each year, the field of ocean acoustics will grow and only become more essential.
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@elephant
What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads five times in a row?
Having flipped a coin four times in a row and got heads every time what are the odds of getting heads again if I flip it one more time?
I don't think probability works in the way you imply.
Having flipped a coin four times in a row and got heads every time what are the odds of getting heads again if I flip it one more time?
I don't think probability works in the way you imply.
The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span. This allows the investigator to compare two or more chains of causation without assuming anything. The alternative is to confuse selection bias with statistical probabilities.