Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[747-8driver]

Originally Posted by doubtfire

The only flaw in my theory is the transponder but lets suppose the PNF selected 7800 instead of 7700 in his haste.

"Your airbus" has a very special transponder having the digit 8 available...

[Speed of Sound]

So why has everyone been searching Between Malaysia & Vietnam? If you were one of those searchers you'd be feeling rather PO wouldn't you? I mean how long have they known this - surely it just didn't come to light as of now.

It didn't come to light 'as of now'.

There has been SAR in the Straits for nearly three days now, based on an admission that military radar had observed a turn towards a westward heading.

[tdracer]

Many of the planes here in USA have the satellite bulge for passengers using in-flight WiFi.

Not sure which operators you're referring too, but the US based airborne WiFi I'm familiar with (Go-Go - used by Delta and Alaska among others) is ground based, not satellite based. It's also quite slow - similar to the old dial-up.

[wiggy]

doubtfire...the rapid descent is laid out in a nice little diagram which I won't reproduce here, but in sequence the important part of the text is:

"Initiate turn if required using HDG/TRK SEL"
"Select lower altitude on MCP" "
select "FLCH" .......

Some operators teach changing the MCP altitude before the heading for "flow" purposes across the panel but in any event Boeing simply specify rotating two knobs without nominating the direction in the hdg case and without specifying the initial increment in either case, and then a third button to push to get the beast descending, you then refine heading, altitude ( and speed) once you are in the descent.

There's obviously a chance on a 777 you might choose to go for 90 left but it's not Boeing SOP, not in the manuals and as such a 90 left is not an automatic or conditioned response/setting if you train in accordance with Boeing procedures.

(Apologies to claybird who beat me to it)

[covtom]

New Scientist - Engine Data

Two bursts of engine data before disappearance.

[Fly26]

Chill

Also in support of WMKN there was a post a few pages back regarding people on/close to Murang beach hearing strange bang/turbine noises which coincides with the timings of the lost aircraft. On pulling out a map WMKN it sits jutting out as you said perpendicular to the coast just to the north of these reports, it would be a very reasonable diversion airport to aim for in the event of any major failures. (As long as it's not closed of course, I'm unfamiliar with the region). However being that close in towards land/people I would suspect evidence of the aircraft would have been more visible to find.

[DType]

Disc failure unlikely???

One assumes (!) that it was not at take off power when it "vanished", and there is much less stress on most engine components at cruise power.

[LASJayhawk]

Yancey, standby has its own power afaik. There is also battery power and an inverter in the event both generators, apu and emergency generator fail.

But as you start to loose power sources, loads get removed to maximize what's left to the things essential for the pilot to try and save the aircraft... That's why pilots windshield heat, even though your talking a lot of power, is one of the last things to go. Hard to land an airplane by hand if you can't see out the front. Or that's what the pilots tell me, anyways.

[doubtfire]

Ok, then 7701 or 6700 or anything that was close to 7700. I`m just saying that the chances of a compos mentis flight deck flying for an hour an not making radio contact on vhf1 which will run of the battery is not plausible.
Therefore I`d go with either decompression or unlawful access to the flight deck. If no-one is claiming the latter then I`d go with the former.

[Aisle2c]

Malaysian military now reveals it tracked MH370 to the Malacca strait, now being quoted on the Malaysian Insider.


Malaysian military now reveals it tracked MH370 to the Malacca strait - The Malaysian Insider

[rodondo4]

Chill

Reading your post on Kota Bahru and Kuala Terengganu as possible landing site. Adding the CCN theory of the plane turning across the north of Malaysia with KUL as their aim. What about Penang as the target? An active airport with cargo traffic at night would keep the airport open, big enough runway and should they not be able to make it have the sea around them.

My thought on the crossing to the west towards the north missing the Titwangsa range at the highest point and crossing at a less densely populated area (just in case).

[james ozzie]

It seems the 2 fake passports look like a red herring - probably just everyday drug smugglers/people smugglers/asylum seekers going about their daily business and now victims too.

I would not be surprised to learn that there are one or two of these types on most flights in that region.

[Una Due Tfc]

Wiggy, Claybird, if there was a departure from FL, there would have been Alarms generated at the ATCOS station alerting them to the departure of a cleared level, fed from SSR data AND ADSB data

[Black Knat]

So; No crash site where expected. Aircraft seems to have carried on flying but with transponders etc off. Another thought-what was the aircraft carrying in it's hold? Would be interesting to know if there was anything of great value such as gold bullion. Theft?

[doubtfire]

Claybird, Wiggy.
Ok, so both seats have established comms. initiated descent and initiated a turn because they thought it was required. Then they run out of useful consciousness. Autopilot carries on.
Is that so implausible?

[JFZ90]

Disc failure unlikely???
One assumes (!) that it was not at take off power when it "vanished", and there is much less stress on most engine components at cruise power.

Maybe, but as on the trent 900 it was an oil fire due to a failed mismanufactured pipe that caused the disc burst on qantas. this could occur at any time in the flight in theory. i'm not saying its the same cause at all - just that it is a plausible explanation of sudden total loss of ac without comms - in theory - which the media is sort of implying is impossible.

It wouldn't explain the turn back etc. rumours.

[deagles007]

doubtfire
Ok, then 7701 or 6700 or anything that was close to 7700. I`m just saying that the chances of a compos mentis flight deck flying for an hour an not making radio contact on vhf1 which will run of the battery is not plausible.
Therefore I`d go with either decompression or unlawful access to the flight deck. If no-one is claiming the latter then I`d go with the former.

Wiggy, doubtfire, claybird have valid points. At any rate, since its not SOP to turn a specified 90 degrees left or right, seems a moot point since it appears that it turned more like 120 degrees left based on LKP and Pulau Perak. Doesn't dismiss decompression/ghost flight as a possibility.

[wiggy]

Ok, so both seats have established comms. initiated descent and initiated a turn because they thought it was required. Then they run out of useful consciousness. Autopilot carries on.
Is that so implausible?

I have no problem with that as a theory, but in your post earlier you seemed (and maybe I misunderstood ) to be linking the reports of a left turn to the west with what sounds like a pretty much mandatory left turn in the Airbus procedure, hence my comment.

Wiggy, Claybird, if there was a departure from FL, there would have been Alarms generated at the ATCOS station alerting them to the departure of a cleared level, fed from SSR data AND ADSB data

Una -

I don't doubt it ( if as you say, SSR and ADSB are working), but that wasn't the subject of our little discussion - see above.

[Una Due Tfc]

ZOOKER

Alarms probably not the best choice of word, but label turns red or yellow depending on the situation. FL turns yellow to indicate selected level and cleared level are not the same if clear of traffic and info is from ADSB

[Chill]

Rodondo4

Ordinarily PEN would be a good option during the day when everyone is awake but I'd be less inclined at night. There's high terrain on the west side of the runway, Penang Bridge to mind out for on the east side, without knowing their control capabilities the Rwy22 approach over Georgetown is higher risk than the Rwy04 approach over water (and 04 has the ILS). If they drop it in the drink on approach I've no idea what their emergency water recovery capabilities are like though RFFS would be decent on land. If I HAD to land PEN is #1 (assuming TGG was no go), but if I felt there was 20-25mins up my sleeve I'd go to KUL - 2 runways (so won't close up the airport), well lit, far superior RFFS, better survivability for the pax (depending on the nature of the problem). Wasn't there so can only guess what they were going through, but these guys know the penninsula like the back of their hand.

Jaberwocky

I agree , it's not a DC7 or 707 and MAS Engineering isn't so sloppy. They knocked a winglet off plus some on a 738 in a towing accident once and a new one went back on. No sticky tape, reinforcement job there. The only time that happens is when the ramp/catering guys bang trolleys, etc into the fuse skin.