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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th May 2014, 01:12
  #10661 (permalink)  
 
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Four Corners 19/05

It's there on iView.

Four Corners : LOST: MH370 : ABC iview
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Old 20th May 2014, 01:12
  #10662 (permalink)  
 
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In the interview with Nik Huzlan, Nik is clear that the failure to contact HCM within a fraction of a second of handoff from KUL was the key that whomever was flying did a deliberate action right at that point.

An alternate possibility is that a catastrophe hit right at that instant. Perhaps an oxygen bottle exploded at that moment piercing the hull. Perhaps a fragment took out a cable that fed ACARS, a small lingering fire took 90 seconds to take out the transponder.

Perhaps the Captain was only able to get as far as turning around for an emergency airfield and entering some incorrect numbers that resulted in the two turns and then a fixed magnetic compass course from then on.

The aircraft porpoised in without coming apart, sank without wreckage.
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Old 20th May 2014, 01:54
  #10663 (permalink)  
 
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Third and final attempt

Ok I don't understand why my post is being modded out, maybe it's the link I included that was the problem?
So, here's a sum-up:
Malaysian Minister of Transport says he is ok with the public release of raw data. Says to ask Inmarsat for it.
Australians say they are ok with releasing the raw data. Also point to Inmarsat.
MAS also gives the green light for the public release, also say to ask Inmarsat.

Inmarsat says they are ok with releasing the raw data. But they say they already gave it to Malaysia "at an early stage of the investigation".

The article I linked to, concluded that someone is lying or stalling here.
There has been a lot of discussion on this forum about whether or not the authorities had any obligation to release the raw data.
Now it appears they want to, but nobody can find it? What on earth is going on?
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Old 20th May 2014, 01:58
  #10664 (permalink)  
 
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quite an interesting interview with the former chief pilot.

I can imagine a fire harming the pilots enough and knocking out some avionics though.
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Old 20th May 2014, 02:08
  #10665 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Soursop View Post
Ok I don't understand why my post is being modded out, maybe it's the link I included that was the problem?
So, here's a sum-up:
Malaysian Minister of Transport says he is ok with the public release of raw data. Says to ask Inmarsat for it.
Australians say they are ok with releasing the raw data. Also point to Inmarsat.
MAS also gives the green light for the public release, also say to ask Inmarsat.

Inmarsat says they are ok with releasing the raw data. But they say they already gave it to Malaysia "at an early stage of the investigation".

The article I linked to, concluded that someone is lying or stalling here.
There has been a lot of discussion on this forum about whether or not the authorities had any obligation to release the raw data.
Now it appears they want to, but nobody can find it? What on earth is going on?
but nobody can find it? or is it, nobody wants to be the one to release it and be responsible for it? who ever releases it Im sure will be the ones who will be badgered. I doubt anyone wants that.
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Old 20th May 2014, 02:19
  #10666 (permalink)  
 
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Inmarsat Data

I'd tend to agree. The data's there but who ever releases it will be the one to whom all questions go. Inmarsat's done their bit but it has a business to run and its not looking for missing planes.
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Old 20th May 2014, 02:24
  #10667 (permalink)  
 
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heavens 10,700 odd posts into the saga and I think billslugg has made the correct analysis of events.

billslugg has made comments that all the atpl pilots I've spoken to agree with. that is what they think occurred.
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Old 20th May 2014, 05:17
  #10668 (permalink)  
 
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The Four Corners programme was a complete disappointment. It merely followed the set-in-stone Malaysian Govt line that the pilots purposely took actions that indicate criminal activity.
There was no effort on the part of FC to speak to any aviation tech people, or to investigate the other possibilities such as contraband cargo, on-board fire or explosion.
All in all, the FC investigation was pretty poor, and merely showed up what we all already know - there's simply a lot of incompetence amongst the Malaysian leaders - in the Govt, in the military, and in the aviation arena.
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Old 20th May 2014, 06:02
  #10669 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BOAC View Post
Surely after all these posts we should look a little at old Lady Logic?

Scenario 1) Drastic emergency on board: As said, who as time to re-programme the FMC to follow a bizarre route? Will the a/c systems then allow this to be 'flown'?

Scenario 2) Suicide/political protest: I'm going to crash this aircraft out of desperation/frustration over something. Why drag it out for 7 or more hours and then crash it? What is wrong with a political/emotional R/T message and a high-speed dive into the nearest water?
BOAC you're conflating two things. Suicide and a polical protest could easily have quite different motivations and end goals.

I agree a pure political protest seems unlikely in this scenario although the possibilty there were other plans which went arwy or even that the intention was to try and demonstrate incompetence by dissappearing for good can't be ruled out. (Note the time is not a factor, it's easily possible dissappearing way off course could be part of the planned protest. But under most scenarios, you would expect an attempt to let the world know at some stage. In fact dissappearing may be seen to add to the message if it's believed no one will notice until you send your message. Since it's easy to see the failure to notice will be criticised regardless of if that's fair or would be the same for most governments.)

In the case of pure suicide, if you don't want anyone to know for sure this makes a lot sense. There's still a fair chance the plane will never be found and it would be far greater were it not for INMARSAT data. It's true that the is some doubt over many previous alleged commercial plane pilot suicides but no where near the level of this.
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Old 20th May 2014, 08:37
  #10670 (permalink)  
 
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Just viewed the interviews.
Over the top the Malaysian Minister of transport and defence was evasive and very uncomfortable during the whole interview. He wasn't saying anything with substance.

The opposition leader was a surprise. Until now i haven't seen any interview with him and from the media I had the impression he would be a radical fanatic guy. I'm not privy to his real mind, but his answers to the competent questions were all sound and reasonable. Interesting his answers to the role of the military concerning SOPs all over the world concerning air policing and the non adherence in this case. And he did not use the interview for unnecessary political statements. I think the opposition leaders of most european countries would have been more aggressive in an opportunity like this one.

The Chief pilot gave an excellent interview, and his position was and is that it most probably was a deliberate act. Imho he will be the most informed pilot at Malaysia airlines with one of the highest level of technical and procedural understandig to normal MAS operations. He most probably had access to inside information from the beginning and could form his take on the events in an early stage untempered from the media and other discussions. He never evaded a question and all his answers were on the spot.

Bottom line is, the man with the two hats was most nervous, he was evasive, he was hiding and not telling any thing. He is the guy who has responsibility for air transport and air defence matters in Malaysia, and if some standard SOPs are established for a rouge flight than he would be the guy making the necessary calls. We must therefore assume that he was well informed in the early stage of the flight going missing, or he could not be reached and the designated deputy further down the line was not making any decisions.

Caro Meldrum-Hanna and her team did a great job in all three interviews. Until now its the best information on air from Malaysia.

Last edited by RetiredF4; 20th May 2014 at 10:20.
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Old 20th May 2014, 08:56
  #10671 (permalink)  
 
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MH370 satellite data to be released

Malaysian government and Inmarsat announce details on last signals sent by plane will be made public 'for transparency'
MH370 satellite data to be released | World news | theguardian.com

will be interesting to see what the mathematicians make of it
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Old 20th May 2014, 09:02
  #10672 (permalink)  
 
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"will be interesting to see what the mathematicians make of it "


We will have a new round of people wanting to make a name for themselves !!!
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Old 20th May 2014, 10:28
  #10673 (permalink)  
 
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RetiredF4

Possibly the biggest disappointment of Hishamuddin's responses to 4 Corners was his inability or unwillingness to acknowledge that in choosing not to have the military scramble an intercept to the unidentified aircraft showing on primary radar, the opportunity to gather valuable information was lost. Hishamuddin took the tack "What would have been the point? We weren't going to shoot it down - it was civilian".

The point would have been that, the military having been advised that MH 370 was missing, an intercept could have:

A) Identified the aircraft as an MAS 777
B) Possibly identified it as 9M-MRO
C) Possibly identified if a person appeared to be in control on the flight deck
D) Possibly noticed whether there was any evidence of a fire onboard
E) Possibly set a few minds at rest by noticing any sign of a small hull breach or other visible damage accounting for the off course behaviour

Obviously they had no concept of the magnitude of the mystery developing around this flight, however this should really be part of the point of having SOPS in relation to any unidentified aircraft crossing their airspace, as Anwar Ibrahim pointed out. Several key items of the mystery may have been enlightened if the Malaysians had not simply watched the aircraft go by unchallenged.
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Old 20th May 2014, 10:33
  #10674 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 500N
We will have a new round of people wanting to make a name for themselves !!!
Not necessarily; they will either confirm or deny the previously promulgated official versions.

If they rebuff the original versions, they will also have to come up with an answer for the well documented recordings of the detected ULB pings.

In my mind the proof will be found in 5000m + of water to the NW of the #1 Ping detection position, when then the question will be, "How was it done?"
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Old 20th May 2014, 12:32
  #10675 (permalink)  
 
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Are the military able to 'escort' an aircraft in this situation, until it eventually comes down?
I can comment how it was supposed to be done in my active time, and its long time ago that I legally can do it. With newer equipment available some details will have changed, but the overall aim most probably does still apply all over the world.

In the area of responsibility crewed and armed jets are on a special alert state to be airborne within 10, 15, 30 may be 60 minutes after the order is given by the responsible control center to intercept and identify an unidentified aircraft. They normally operate in pairs. The initial direction and altitude informations lead the interceptors within the range of the onboard radar system, and with the help of that the jets will maneuver within visual range to identify the type of aircraft, its altitude speed and track. With means of communications including visual signals the crew tries to get the attention of the rouge aircraft. This is done by flying close to the cockpit of the intercepted aircraft, and yes, it can be done also during night. Positioning one fighter in front of the not responding aircraft while waggling the wings is an internationally understood sign to follow that fighter aircraft for a landing. If no reaction from the rouge aircraft is received but it is assumed that the cockpit of the intercepted aircraft is occupied and the signals have been received, the fighter might use some of their hardware to change the mind of the crew of the intercepted aircraft by firing some tracer shots in front of the rouge aircraft. If still no reaction could be observed the next most obvious course of action would be to monitor and report until fuel would necessitate to return to base.

The words from the transport / defence minister "what should we have done, shoot it down?" are ridiculous, because it neglects the primary purpose of air policing (identifying unknown flying objects) and declares the last option of air policing (using weapons when apropriate) as not practical. Even if it was known in an early state that MH370 had turned around and was identified on military primary radar, it would have been apropriate to alert air defence and raise the alert state of the designated jets ( highest state on ground would be with running engines ready for speedy takeoff). Such facts should be in the textbook of an air defence minister and his statements are loughable the least.

If i'm allowed an personal oppinion, I think that the military would have been able to respond in appropriate mannor because that's what they are there for in peace time, but was never ordered to to so or even was ordered not to follow the normally established procedures for such events. When the aircraft disappeared from the primary radars, a scramble of jets had become useless.

Could a possible plan to hijack the aircraft plan on such behaviour? I think so, and the fact that the duties of the air defence and air tranport sections are performed by one minister makes that even more plausible. How would a transport minister, responsible for the safe conduct of civil air travel order any kind of weapon employment against a civil aircraft in his duty as defence minister? Yes, knowing that and knowing the person of the minister (which I do not do) might lead to the assumption that the military would not be involved in an early state of such hijacking.

Not saying that it was one though.
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Old 20th May 2014, 19:01
  #10676 (permalink)  
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Possibly the biggest disappointment of Hishamuddin's responses to 4 Corners was his inability or unwillingness to acknowledge that in choosing not to have the military scramble an intercept to the unidentified aircraft showing on primary radar, the opportunity to gather valuable information was lost. Hishamuddin took the tack "What would have been the point? We weren't going to shoot it down - it was civilian
There is a serious flaw in the Minister's reponse : How does he ( and the Malysian air force ) knew it was civilian and not hostlile ? We were told the primary target was never identified in real time. That was acknowledged by a Malaysian general in a press conference in the early days.
Otherwise if it was identified, then why leave the search going on for days in the Souh China sea?
For me the minister response in the programme is just Communications crisis management to hide the fact that their air defence did not work very well that night.
.
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Old 21st May 2014, 00:39
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Malaysia now says they need Inmarsat's help in order to release the data "in a presentable way", without saying how long this preparation will take.
They say "all parties" are working towards the release... how many people do they need, how long can it take to publish a simple copy of the data they have already been sharing amongst themselves?


I thought the whole point of "raw data" was that it was, well, raw, and not edited "for public consumption".
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Old 21st May 2014, 00:50
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I thought the whole point of "raw data" was that it was, well, raw, and not edited "for public consumption".
You want a binary file with no idea of its format? We have no idea what has been given to them and who that have handed it to so they could check it out for themselves.

I would presume there's some back and forth going on about how to release what data and its formating. There could be for instant, a huge binary file with data for all pings of all aircraft for the birds field of view for x hours. Or there could be one that has only the data for that flight extracted.

Any decision they make will be criticized, and accused of a conspiracy, so they will most likely be taking the time to be extra careful with a decision that would normally be flippant.
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Old 21st May 2014, 02:18
  #10679 (permalink)  
 
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@rh200

Yes, we'll take the raw binary file and we will parse it later as we decode its format. Once the data is in the public domain it cannot be edited and that is a significant point.

When you say "they will most likely be taking the time to be extra careful with a decision that would normally be flippant." you should keep in mind ATC watcher's post just above yours which points out that 71 days after the event, the Malaysian Minister of defense is still issuing inaccurate versions of the first days' events.

You are not the only poster here who is providing support for an obvious coverup of the events of March 9 -10 by elements of the Malaysian government. Others have made insulting posts about "amatur detectives" etc wanting information from the Malaysians (supposedly just to satisfy idle, or somehow juvenile curiosity.) The fact is that many people have a justified interest in finding out what happened to MH370; that presumably is why the search goes on.

There is much information about the early portion of that flight which is being withheld, and there have been a series of statements issued by the Malaysian Government which have been shown to be at variance with the truth. They have denied making statements they are on record as having made; and they have issued revisions to every detail issued prior to March 11th.

We still don't know the location (time, coordinates, heading, along with estimated speed and altitude) of the last radar sighting; although, the Malaysians have had that information since the evening of March 9th.

The Vietnamese, Thai, and Indonesian* radars tracked that flight, yet they haven't been forthcoming with detailed data; we can assume this to be because of diplomatic exchanges from the Malaysians requesting silence.
* The Indonesians issued a statement stating that they did not track MH370 "over their territory" - a qualifier which would hardly have been necessary if they hadn't tracked MH370 at all.

Another major failure to disclose by the Malaysians was the failure to announce to the nations searching for the wreckage in the SCS that Inmarsat had given them information that the flight had continued on for another seven hours. It took them at least three days to finally let that cat out of the bag. It is clear that in the absence of Inmarsat's release of data Malaysia would never have admitted tracking the plane into the Malacca Strait - we would still be looking in the South China Sea or the Western Pacific.

Much of the support here for the withholding of information has been based on the premise that primary radar data is some kind of a big secret. It is true that there is radar information in this world which is secret for good reason (modern over the horizon stuff such as JORN, or the defenses of a carrier group, or specific radiation patterns effected by ground clutter); but the garden variety stuff that the Malaysians bought from the British, or what Thailand or Indonesia is using is no secret at all - the range is limited by the horizon and that's that. There is no valid reason to withhold tracking information about MH370 (unless someone is trying to cover up the details of who and why MH370 went to its southern demise.) Another reason appears to be a person's political outlook - whether one sees government as a godlike entity over the people, or a creation of the people, paid for by the people and at the service of the people. I am of the latter, I assume that many others here share that view.

Yesterday someone posted here that one of the possibilities behind the disappearance of MH370 was that there may have been "another shoe to drop" or a message which was supposed to be released to the world failed to get out. I believe that is a strong possibility and I believe that the behavior of the Malaysian government supports that premise.

My point is: the disappearance of a commercial airliner with all its passengers is an event of global interest, it affects all of us.

Yet it appears that the root cause of this event is being hidden due to local politics in a small part of the world. I object to that.
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Old 21st May 2014, 02:45
  #10680 (permalink)  
 
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"Not releasing" to the genuine populus is (a lot) different to "being hidden".

While there may be people who have a requirement to know beyond idle curiousity or some dream of being the next Encyclopedia Brown or Sherlock Holmes, I would suggest those people may be able to access such data through channels are than protesting on PPRuNe that it's not being made public.

The data not being released is different to the data not being available someone with a genuine need to know, however I put it to you that most (I suspect all) people complaining about it here aren't in a position where they would have any cause to know....
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