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Old 5th Apr 2014, 07:17   #9161 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blake777 View Post
I have not seen posted here the fact that whilst the JACC has only minimal search information available on the media page, you can still access the search maps for the day from AMSA. Today's area is approx 1,000km WNW of Exmouth - one does wonder what the "further refinements of calculations" are revealing!

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws....ch_handout.pdf
You can expect the search area to move as the surface search is looking for debris that is drifting in ocean currents and with the wind. It looks like they have settled on a crash 'point' or area, but not so much on debris drift and will be making very careful overlapping but not conincident searches
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 07:18   #9162 (permalink)
 
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One gets the impression from the jumping search areas that they are targeting areas based on satellite photos of possible surface debris again.

Presumably there have been enough clear days now to have captured the entire region in high res.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 07:30   #9163 (permalink)
 
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Low Flier,

A very refreshing breath of fresh air after wading through pages and pages of unmitigated rubbish.

I am involved with marine seismic operations and had done some back-of-the-envelope calculations about likely search times, but refrained from posting because of my lack of knowledge of deep-tow operations. It's nice to see someone with professional experience (and a sense of humour) posting some useful information.

It's an ironic coincidence that we in the SOL fleet have just sailed though the search area.

etudiant,

Quote:
Oil companies might even be willing to help underwrite part of the search, as the data might help guide the search for hydrocarbons in the area.
Sorry. Not in a million years. There ain't no oil under them there abyssal plains!
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 08:01   #9164 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
One thing that had always irritated with this datum is that all known primary radar facilities in the area have a range of 60 or even 50 NM only, which is normal for their purpose. The 200 NM offshore position must have been detected by something that was not land based or can a primary radar range be stretched beyond its nominal range when analysing raw data?
You are talking about the known ranges of the ATC radars. The track was created from a military radar, the ranges and capabilities are not public. And if we take a close look on the shown radar plot we will see no other traffic on it, which means it is an edited picture showing the assumed track of MH370 over a period of time, not one sweep, but multiple antenna sweeps put together.

A military PSR radar with a radar coverage of 60 NM would be useless, as incoming hostiles tend to fly with the transponder in off position. 60NM are covered in less than 7 Minutes at 540 groundspeed and would not allow for appropriate action.

Edit: Found this article:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/s...-kua-kia-soong

Last edited by RetiredF4; 5th Apr 2014 at 08:29. Reason: Link added
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 08:35   #9165 (permalink)
 
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primary radar Langkawi

I dont know....But i found this old article from 2000 that mentions radar there...." To date a total of 5 primary and secondary radars have been installed at Kutching, Kota Kinabalu, Johor, Subang, Langkawi, Labuan and sepang airports"..
New Straits Times - Google News Archive Search

Last edited by DocRohan; 5th Apr 2014 at 08:39. Reason: Added the important bit
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 09:01   #9166 (permalink)
 
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Australian radar and the new search area....Interesting.

The Australian OTHR radar coverage and the new search area is starting to tell an interesting story...

The fact that Australia has more or less taken over the search with a military team, is also starting to make sense....

New search area



AND...


Last edited by DriverAirframeOneOf; 5th Apr 2014 at 09:59.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 09:34   #9167 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
It would be quicker and cheaper to use chartered oil survey vessels, they exist in quantity, their operating costs are well known and they have the needed skills.
Not in quantity - I'm not aware of any that are equpped to do sonar surveys at these kind of depths, although there might be a few in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and West Africa, using either deep-tow vehicles or AUVs.

The majority of the world's "oil survey vessels" are seismic vessels, which are completely unsuited for this kind of work.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 10:07   #9168 (permalink)
 
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@Irish21


I work in that area and from an insurance point of view location of wreckage in the area they are presently searching would be more beneficial to claimants than if it were found along MH370's intended course or somewhere along the Northern arc.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 10:33   #9169 (permalink)
 
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Fair sky

The flight level of 295 in the Malacca Strait was reported early by sources such as Reuters. I'm posting one such article here though it is very old now.

Since there's been no confirmation, and since Daud retracted some of the statements attributed to him, this is possibly now one more item to move to the "unconfirmed" basket in this frustrating case.

UPDATE 1-Missing Malaysian plane last seen at Strait of Malacca-source | Reuters
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 10:34   #9170 (permalink)
 
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DocRohan - The CSIRO animated graphic is neat - but it's simplistic. The currents only play a major part in the movement of floating wreckage when the current is the primary controlling input.
For that to happen, the wreckage would have to be almost totally submerged for the prevailing winds to have little effect on its movement.
Light floating wreckage would be affected more by wind direction and strength, than by prevailing currents.

The prevailing winds in the South part of the Eastern Indian Ocean, during the Southern Hemisphere Spring & Summer (September to February by calculation, but more like late October to late March due to the heat latency of the Earth), are weakly Westerly, swinging from NW through West to SW - and occasionally, South for short periods.
In Winter, the prevailing winds are strongly Westerly, with strong swings to the NW and SW.

As we are in the early stages of Autumn (Fall), the prevailing winds have been relatively weak, due to the transition through the Summer equinox.

Therefore, the movement of light floating wreckage (seat cushions, light plastics and resins) will still be largely Easterly in the lower latitudes (30 deg and further South), but somewhat Westerly to stationary in the Northern latitudes above 30 deg, due to the still-strong Easterly surface movement of air from the Northern parts of Australia, out into the Indian Ocean.

The heavier, largely-submerged wreckage would be mostly travelling in the prevailing current direction, unless a strong storm pushed it Eastwards.
We have had no particularly strong storms in the Southern Indian Ocean search region since the search commenced there, so the heaviest portions of wreckage will be following the currents and eddies in the search region - whilst the lightest portions would almost certainly be nearing, or on, the West Australian coast somewhere.

Despite the strong Leeuwin Current (3kts) running North to South down the West Australian coast, it doesn't stop vast amounts of flotsam and jetsam being washed ashore regularly from the Easternmost section of the Indian Ocean.

Last edited by onetrack; 5th Apr 2014 at 13:18. Reason: sp ...
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 10:43   #9171 (permalink)
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Quite right. Malaysians are not Americans:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuneMile View Post
- but have the authorities investigated whoever was in charge or present at Malaysia's military radars?
I am sure they have and the witch hunt will have started weeks ago. As you said, they are not Americans given to washing dirty linen in public.

Quote:
That and the government hasn't been very enthusiastic in aiding with the search. The Australians have shown the most vigor in aiding with the search.
What may be true is that the government hasn't been very enthusiastic in its media releases regarding the search. The Australians have shown the most vigor in its media releases.

Quote:
Even if the Malaysian government had nothing to do with their crash, their negligence and lack of ardor
Is most likely as not a cultural thing.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 10:48   #9172 (permalink)
 
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One thing about this incident is that it should teach us a little more humility.
A month has passed and we cannot find any trace of an object that when it was last seen was 200ft long 200ft wide and 60 ft high, using pretty much all our latest technology the answer is zilch, not a trace.

That is not to say we will not find it but in terms of inhospitable areas it seems to be perfect , Southern India Ocean is very deep with a turbulent surface conditions and a very tricky 'mountainous' sea bed. Even if some smaller wreckage elements are washed up how long before they are found on one of the longest most desolate and isolated coastlines on earth sea bed.

That 'loss of control' seems to have fed something of a media frenzy and that to a degree is replicated here. Much of the focus is on cover ups and subterfuge perhaps because it seems too un nerving to consider that in 2014 something the size of a modest apartment block could just disappear , at lest for a month.

In terms of finding anything , always assuming we are looking in the right part of the world anyway, it can only be described as very difficult. The sea bed in that area is not used for exploration , no telecom cables transit that region and it is of virtually no strategic interest to any nation even the Aussies. For those reasons no one knows much about it compared to other oceans and seas where oil exploration, deep sea mining or telecom cables mean extensive work has been done on sub sea and sea floor conditions.

Even if some evidence is found tomorrow we should use this to remind us that we are not masters of our own planet let alone the universe. Perhaps a few second thoughts too about some of the more exotic long haul routings that we take for granted these days too.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 12:13   #9173 (permalink)
 
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What the Airline CEO has to say.

This was posted on Malaysia Airline's page:


Saturday, April 05, 06:06 PM MYT +0800 Malaysia Airlines MH370 Flight Incident - Press Briefing by Hishammuddin Hussein, Minister of Defence and Acting Minister of Transport

1. Introduction

It’s been almost a month since MH370 went missing.

The search operation has been difficult, challenging and complex.

In spite of all this, our determination remains undiminished.

We will continue the search with the same level of vigour and intensity.

We owe this to the families of those on board, and to the wider world.

We will continue to focus, with all our efforts, on finding the aircraft.

2. Investigation into MH370

As per the requirements set out by the ICAO in Annex 13 of the International Standards and Recommended Practices, Malaysia will continue to lead the investigation into MH370.

As per the ICAO standards, Malaysia will also appoint an independent ‘Investigator In Charge’ to lead an investigation team.

The investigation team will include three groups:

- an airworthiness group, to look at issues such as maintenance records, structures and systems;

- an operations group, to examine things such as flight recorders, operations and meteorology;

- and a medical and human factors group, to investigate issues such as psychology, pathology and survival factors.

The investigation team will also include accredited countries.

Malaysia has already asked Australia to be accredited to the investigation team, and they have accepted.

We will also include China, the United States, the United Kingdom and France as accredited representatives to the investigation team, along with other countries that we feel are in a position to help.

3. Formation of committees

In addition to the new investigation team mentioned above, the Government - in order to streamline and strengthen our on-going efforts - has established three ministerial committees.

Firstly, we have established a Next of Kin Committee. Hamzah Zainuddin, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, leads this committee.

This committee will oversee all aspects regarding the Next of Kin of those on board MH370, providing families with information on the search operation, and offering support after the search operation has been concluded.

The committee will co-ordinate with relevant foreign governments, and will complement the work already being done for the families by Malaysian Airlines.

The second committee oversees technicalities, specifically, the formation and the appointment of the investigation team. Abdul Aziz Kaprawi, the Deputy Minister of Transport, leads this committee.

The third committee takes over issues related to the deployment of assets for the search operation. Abdul Rahim Bakri, the Deputy Minister of Defence, leads this committee. This committee will work with foreign counterparts involved in the search operation, and liaise closely with the Australian Joint Agency Co-ordination Centre.

4. US-ASEAN Defence Forum

This morning, I returned from the US-ASEAN Defence Forum, which I attended in my capacity as Defence Minister.

At the forum, I updated our ASEAN counterparts, and the United States, on the latest developments in the search for MH370.

I also spoke to officials from other countries involved in the multi-national search operation.

The spirit of co-operation at the meeting, and the support offered, was commendable.

During my bilateral meeting with US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, Secretary Hagel reiterated his commitment that the United States would continue to support the search operation, and will provide whatever assets are deemed necessary.

I thanked Secretary Hagel for the United States’ unwavering support, which has included both the deployment of naval and air assets, sophisticated underwater search equipment, and assistance from the FBI, the NTSB and the FAA.

At the Forum, I also received strong support from our ASEAN partners in the search for MH370.

I would like to read out the joint statement issued by the ASEAN Ministers, which I believe underscores the tremendous spirit of co-operation within ASEAN, in the face of this difficult search operation:

“We, the Defence Ministers of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations express our deepest sympathies to the family members of the passengers and crew on board the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

We acknowledge that the member nations of ASEAN have participated in the search operations directly and indirectly since the plane went missing on 8th March 2014.

From the South China Sea, the Andaman Sea to the Indian Ocean - ASEAN has continued to assist in every way possible, true to the spirit of regional cooperation and friendship without any hesitation in sharing of information, assets and expertise.

We believe that Malaysia has done its level best in its response to this unprecedented predicament given the sheer scale of the Search and Rescue (SAR) operation which is the biggest and most complex we have ever seen.

We reaffirm our commitment for greater cooperation between each member nationespecially in the field of disaster management under the framework of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response. This incident stressed upon us the importance of information and resource sharing as we strive to be in the utmost state of readiness in mitigating potential calamities and risks.

ASEAN’s unity will remain solid and is totally committed to assisting Malaysia in coordinating this massive SAR to locate MH370. We are resolute in finding a closure to this tragic chapter in aviation history. Our thoughts and prayers remain with the families in these difficult times.”

5. Concluding remarks

Before I end, let me touch on some unfounded allegations made against Malaysia.

These allegations include the extraordinary assertion that Malaysian authorities were somehow complicit in what happened to MH370.

I should like to state, for the record, that these allegations are completely untrue.

As I have said before, the search for MH370 should be above politics.

And so I call on all Malaysians to unite; to stand by our armed forces as they work in difficult conditions, with their foreign counterparts, thousands of miles from home; and to support all those who are working tirelessly in the search for MH370.

---

Lastly, as I mentioned on Wednesday, while I was at the US-ASEAN Defence Forum, I spoke by telephone to the British Secretary of State for Defence, Phillip Hammond, regarding the nuclear-powered submarine HMS Tireless.

I hereby confirm that the submarine is now in the search area and helping in the search operation.

I shall now invite the Chief of the Defence Force to update you on the submarine’s capabilities.

-ENDS-
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 12:42   #9174 (permalink)
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Breaking news

Chinese ship detects signal

China's Search Vessel Picks up Pulse Signal in South Indian Ocean
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 13:23   #9175 (permalink)
 
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Note that the CVR which had been written off as of no use, may be considerably useful IFF someone was flying the aircraft and talking to themselves.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 13:43   #9176 (permalink)
 
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Haven't seen an update on the AMSA site yet, just the AM update, but this was posted about 20min. prior to the news article on the signal detection (lacking details):

Chinese Air Force Plane Spots New Floating Objects in South Indian Ocean
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 13:44   #9177 (permalink)
 
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Tip-off from another underwater source?

I hope this 37.5 signal is confirmed and leads to discovery of the plane. Scepticism seems churlish and unfriendly at this point.
The doubts with regard to range of the signal may not take into account the possibility of other floating wreckage having been spotted, or the signal having been detected initially by some other unknown equipment on/deployed from chinese ships, leading to to this vessel being sent to the location to confirm the detection.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 13:45   #9178 (permalink)
 
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About 1 hour over, no reserve calculated. I have no idea what fuel they were carrying, and interestingly i haven't read any public report of what their fuel reserves were. I understand the speed used for the search calculation are higher, and at a commensurately higher burn rate, than typical cruise.

Interestingly, the search areas they are looking at today are even further north than the chinese coordinates reported .
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 14:00   #9179 (permalink)
 
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37.5Khz signal.

It was reported that it lasted for only 90 seconds. Three crew members heard this signal but could not make a recording as they were surprised by the signal!! Hope its not another false hope.
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Old 5th Apr 2014, 14:16   #9180 (permalink)
 
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If the Chinese received a signal - why were they looking between the designated search areas? Either the search is still not coordinated and every nation does what it wants or there are other informations available to them.

And why did the signal last 90s?
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