Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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I was able to find weather maps going back a week in the region being searched. Conditions have been relatively benign, in 20-30 knot west to northwest winds most of the time. No info on the weather for 5-6 days before that. But in any case, the climate in that part of the southern ocean would normally produce air temperatures close to sea temperatures, in both cases around 10-15 C. It's not frigid at this time of year (assuming we're talking 45 S) but even as far north as Ile Amsterdam at 38 S which has weather records, March has average temperatures around 15-20 C daytime and 10-15 C nights. (keep in mind March in s.h. is like September in n.h. but when you compare Southern Indian Ocean to North Atlantic the latitude comparisons due to Antarctic circulation are something like 10 deg different, e.g., 40S = 50N, 45S = 55N. For northern readers, this ocean climate would be very similar to that encountered at the end of summer well off the coasts of Ireland or Scotland (or in the Gulf of Alaska).
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FMS Projected
I think Yawn may be saying that if this was still not an act of madness, suicide or incapacitation then someone may have wanted to go north, but messed up and drove south...
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Finding any debris will help the families find closure. My heart goes out to them.
However, even if we find the Black Boxes, the CVR will reveal nothing and the DFDR will tell us more precisely what we roughly already know?
That is a brilliant plan by someone(s) who did not want the facts ever to emerge?
However, even if we find the Black Boxes, the CVR will reveal nothing and the DFDR will tell us more precisely what we roughly already know?
That is a brilliant plan by someone(s) who did not want the facts ever to emerge?
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Heh so your theory is that someone took over the cockpit, entered the waypoint in to the FMS, then hung around for half a day or so watching the rest of the instruments they presumably couldn't read, then when the egg timer went off and they didn't see China, they said "damn, guess we'd better crash". That's inspired! I swear with the talent I've seen in this thread, someone should open "PPrune detective services", Seriously, we are sitting on a gold mine here, people!
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Another crazy hypothesis
Yawn's idea is interesting.
If one plots the original flight path all the way from IGARI to Beijing, but 180 inverted, does one not end up where the wreckage is?
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.
If one plots the original flight path all the way from IGARI to Beijing, but 180 inverted, does one not end up where the wreckage is?
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.
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If one plots the original flight path all the way from IGARI to Beijing, but 180 inverted, does one not end up where the wreckage is?
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.
I know this means violating Indonesian airspace, but one could then work in a 'simple' fire/comms/hypoxia scenario.
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Aceh is a highly sensitive area to the Indonesians. And most folks in the Region are aware of that. There is no way that this aircraft passed through Indonesian airspace in or around North Sumatera without being spotted.
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Yawn said
Indeed, but did you see my previous post where I suggested a different interpretation?
If this Aussie find turns out to be a red herring, thoughts might turn to the Northern Arc again.
I believe the last Malaysian press conference did say that both arcs were still equally in the picture?
We shall see .
Xinjiang Provence 40.7140° N, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E
If this Aussie find turns out to be a red herring, thoughts might turn to the Northern Arc again.
I believe the last Malaysian press conference did say that both arcs were still equally in the picture?
We shall see .
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Looks like it's closer to the French Southern (population of 140) & Antarctic Lands and Heard Island & McDonald Islands than Perth.
Max depth of Indian ocean some 8000 metres (26,000 feet).
Max depth of Indian ocean some 8000 metres (26,000 feet).
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bud leon said,
for the record,
This is specifically what was reported in the news cycles on March 8th:
March 9th:
March 10th
An AP reporter was also standing right there, hears it, and supposedly verifies the statement with multiple (unnamed) Malaysian Officials
March 11th
His March 9th press conference statement, of course, being that there was corroborated evidence it had turned back to the Straights
Yet despite all that, the official position remained “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370” ...until day 8 of the search.
I imagine people who criticise the Malaysian response have little experience in emergency management, which is typified by a lot of information but little intelligence (verified information) in the early stages. And this is a particularly difficult one cutting across many countries with a lot of noise, exacerbated by media. Much of the criticism has actually stemmed from misconceptions about what has and has not been said. Australia has come in much later, when information quantity and quality has greatly improved.
This is specifically what was reported in the news cycles on March 8th:
According to a press statement by Malaysia Airline Systems Bhd, Subang Air Traffic Control reported that it lost contact with Flight MH370 at 2.40 am on Saturday.
"We are trying to make sense of this," the Malaysian air force chief (Daud) told a media conference. "The military radar indicated that the aircraft may have made a turn back and in some parts, this was corroborated by civilian radar."
Berita Harian quotes Air Force chief General Tan Sri Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected by military radar in the vicinity of Pulau Perak, in the Straits of Malacca, at 2.40 a.m. on Saturday, hundreds of kilometres off course.
March 11th
"I wish to state that I did not make any such statements as above. What occurred was that the Berita Harian journalist asked me if such an incident occurred as detailed in their story. However, I did not give any answer to the question.
"Instead, what I said to the journalist was, 'Please refer to the statement which I made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Forces at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport'," the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) chief said in a statement late last night.
"Instead, what I said to the journalist was, 'Please refer to the statement which I made on 9 March 2014, during the press conference with the Chief of Defence Forces at the Sama-Sama Hotel, Kuala Lumpur International Airport'," the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) chief said in a statement late last night.
Yet despite all that, the official position remained “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370” ...until day 8 of the search.
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Creampuff, not sure about thous bouys you mention, but I am aware that the RNZAF Orion that is departing Perth at 4pm local time (probably about now??) recently had a major overhaul and was equipped with the latest surveillance systems including technology that enables it to scan under water. By the time they get to the site it will be dark, hence why I thin they are the last aircraft to be sent out.
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180
The 180 theory seems like a credible explanation as the so-called radar returns are most likely spurious (as I have always believed).
aLso lends credence to catastrophic fire scenario leaving the aircraft on a reciprocal heading to KL but crew incapacitated.
th ac could only have reached that far at cruise speeds /altitude (FL 300 &above)
aLso lends credence to catastrophic fire scenario leaving the aircraft on a reciprocal heading to KL but crew incapacitated.
th ac could only have reached that far at cruise speeds /altitude (FL 300 &above)
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Radar Hits of 'Significant Size' Registered in Indian Ocean: Flight Crew - ABC News
"A flight crew scouring the southern Indian Ocean for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane tells ABC News that they're getting radar hits of "significant size," indicating something lurking below the water's surface.
ABC News' David Wright, the only TV reporter on board the US Navy P-8 Poseidon, said the crew tells him the radar indicates "there is something down there."
It is still too early to tell if the radar hits are related to the missing plane, which was carrying 239 people when it disappeared on March 8."
Obviously, time frames involved means that what they were referring to would have been closed on by now; whether or not the vis is good enough for a FLIR or visual sighting is a different story
"A flight crew scouring the southern Indian Ocean for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane tells ABC News that they're getting radar hits of "significant size," indicating something lurking below the water's surface.
ABC News' David Wright, the only TV reporter on board the US Navy P-8 Poseidon, said the crew tells him the radar indicates "there is something down there."
It is still too early to tell if the radar hits are related to the missing plane, which was carrying 239 people when it disappeared on March 8."
Obviously, time frames involved means that what they were referring to would have been closed on by now; whether or not the vis is good enough for a FLIR or visual sighting is a different story
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"The radar hits indicate something may be beneath the ocean's surface".
Is it likely that in such rough seas the large parts of the wreckage would still be floating after so many days? I presume that SAR crews would quickly determine from their sensors if the floating object, a large part of which is reportedly below the surface, is made of ice or metal? Does anyone know if icebergs are commonly encountered in this particular search area?
Is it likely that in such rough seas the large parts of the wreckage would still be floating after so many days? I presume that SAR crews would quickly determine from their sensors if the floating object, a large part of which is reportedly below the surface, is made of ice or metal? Does anyone know if icebergs are commonly encountered in this particular search area?
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CreamPuff, the short answer is no.
The FDR/CVR acoustic beacons operate at 37.5kHz with a usable detection range of up to 3 nautical miles (higher freq => lower range). This is a result of the need for small size, reasonable power requirements, and good localisation ability. The short acoustic pinger range makes detection from near the surface in an approximate 12000 feet of water a big ask.
The anti-submarine sonobuoys are designed for the sorts of lowish frequency noises put out by machinery on/in subs and ships. These travel much further in water. (In a past life I was the engineer overseeing software development for the AP-3C acoustic processor systems (since replaced))
The FDR/CVR acoustic beacons operate at 37.5kHz with a usable detection range of up to 3 nautical miles (higher freq => lower range). This is a result of the need for small size, reasonable power requirements, and good localisation ability. The short acoustic pinger range makes detection from near the surface in an approximate 12000 feet of water a big ask.
The anti-submarine sonobuoys are designed for the sorts of lowish frequency noises put out by machinery on/in subs and ships. These travel much further in water. (In a past life I was the engineer overseeing software development for the AP-3C acoustic processor systems (since replaced))
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Xinjiang Provence 40.7140° N, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E
Search Area close to 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E
As a senile imbecile who was taught navigation nearly 60 years ago I find decimal degrees and + & - quite a challenge.
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It is a very big ocean. What was seen could be anything from Tsunami debirs to discarded nets. The Australian PM announced it, does he have the mail or has he made a fool out of himself for PR purposes? time will tell.
The data and images would have been alalysed by now. The authorities would already know what the result is. Silence is not a positive indication IMHO unless someone is waiting for the make up lady to arrive.
The data and images would have been alalysed by now. The authorities would already know what the result is. Silence is not a positive indication IMHO unless someone is waiting for the make up lady to arrive.