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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:48
  #4161 (permalink)  
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The arc is in fact from the last ping
Correct, and it is the most important ping.
At that time they were close to fuel exhaustion so whatever remained of this aircraft must be close to the location of this ping.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:52
  #4162 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ackfoo View Post
Quoting lakedude:
Triangulation doesn't require the points of measurement to be in a triangle, or even for there to be three of them
You might want to look up trilateration. Indeed in 3-space, with 3 origins, if the origins of the spheres lie in a straight line with one another then you are not able to narrow your search down to two possible positions, which in the case with space-based geolocation is really only one since the other will be in space.

Trilateration is not what they were doing with these SATCOM pings. Knowing the difference between tx/rx time and the height of the satellite above ground at that exact point in time, it is possible to calculate a rough angle down to the surface of the earth. This creates a circle. By rejecting points on this circle that lie outside of the a/c's possible range, in combination with PSR data collected, allow you to narrow down the position to a point on an arc.

This will be *approximate* since millisecond differences can result in hundreds of kilometres of error when the receiver is in geostationary orbit.

Insulting the other poster by suggesting he take an elementary school math class is rude and asinine. None of this is grade school mathematics. This is advanced stuff (although perhaps not advanced in theory). I should know, I studied Mathematics.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:59
  #4163 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by lakedude View Post
Alright this post spells it out perfectly:


The arc is in fact from the last ping.

That being the case there must be other arcs from the other earlier pings we are not being shown. If the plane was just a bit farther north (or south really) when they lost contact these other arc might be such that one of the N/S duplicates would be impossible. They must have pings from when they actually knew where the plane was. It is an unfortunate coincidence that the plane was so close in the N/S direction to the satellite when they lost track of it...
To add; why would the red lines on the arc at 40 degrees EXCLUDE the area between Vietnam-Indonesia, where the last verified contact with MH370 was made? Primary radar plots from that point on were of an "unidentified object".
The red lines an the north/south extremities of the 40 degree arc are based on maximum range and fuel loadings, but is it possible that the plane ditched in the sea at approx LKP, intact enough for SATCOM to keep pinging?
Not suggesting this is likely, however interested to know why that part of the 40 degree arc has been excluded.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:02
  #4164 (permalink)  
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I am sure that the thing that puzzles many of us is the idea that one could arrange a suicide and not do it fairly quickly after the point of no return.

Would you really stand on a parapet and think "I will jump off in 7 hours time and in the meanwhile I will sit on this ledge so no-one can see me."?

This type of behaviour must be well outside of that expected by a person committed to suicide.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:02
  #4165 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Accurate Google Earth KMZ file of Inmarsat arc

Since that diagram showing Inmarsat's ping arc is a bit low-res, I made an accurate version for Google Earth:


Article with context and method:

Flight MH370 ? search data in Google Earth | Ogle Earth
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:02
  #4166 (permalink)  
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Geometric problem resulting from Inmarsat pings has North-South symmetry. Any pattern of pings consistent with northern route, has equivalent, North-South, mirror image. North-South symmetry of the pattern would only be perturbed by asymmetry in jet streams. For the moment both hypotheses need to be considered
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:10
  #4167 (permalink)  
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Could it be that the Malaysian authorities know exactly where the aircraft is, which is why they're unwilling to give full information, as it's actually a hostage situation? There is theories all over so thought I may stick my ore in.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:11
  #4168 (permalink)  
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This type of behaviour must be well outside of that expected by a person committed to suicide.
People committing suicide are not exactly in their most lucid frame of mind, why would you then exclude certain behaviours? I am sure if you dug into hundreds of jumps from the Golden Gate Bridge you would find amazing examples of inconsistencies. I see nothing hard to grasp when a suicidal pilot wants to do a final mischief and decides to bury himself in real deep waters. specially if it was within his reach.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:12
  #4169 (permalink)  
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I am sure that the thing that puzzles many of us is the idea that one could arrange a suicide and not do it fairly quickly after the point of no return.

Would you really stand on a parapet and think "I will jump off in 7 hours time and in the meanwhile I will sit on this ledge so no-one can see me."?

This type of behaviour must be well outside of that expected by a person committed to suicide.
I refer you to my post #4095 and Jonathan3141's post #4108. Suicide is a complex issue, and a long delay is not unusual.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:16
  #4170 (permalink)  
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<The sad thing is we would of knew 99.9% of this information 2/3 days ago if the Malaysians were being transparent and honest.>

Authorities DID know, they just didn't release info to the public. As far as the press conferences, Malaysia in over their heads especially when it came it international media scrutiny. Doesn't make them bad, just inexperienced in high profile matters.

<Could a plane really land without being noticed? >

Absolutely, especially if it was expected by certain parties.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:16
  #4171 (permalink)  
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"Agreed, I would expect the base(s) in the region to be on some escalated level of alert as soon as the plane went missing in "9-11" style transponders off. Like a disturbed wasps nest some interceptors would be up and anchored navy ships put to sea. Based on past events if it showed up on defense radar they would have at least 2 interceptors."

Agree and all relevant data would be sent to threat assessment. First piece TSPX ceases to respond between goodnight KL and hello HCM -TA personnel do not believe in coincidence, threat level goes up, available spook sats are tasked to locate a commair traveling sans ident. If they learn the bird turned left to 263, threat level is up another notch and if they pick up on the second turn (and especially if they pick up even a suspicion of an attempt to shadow another plane) the code red alarm bell goes off -need we draw pictures as to where they would go from here...
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:16
  #4172 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Squawk_ident View Post
... Or someone irrupted in the cockpit while one of the crew member was going in/out.
I would hope and presume that by now the authorities have a clear picture of which passengers were sitting where - and who up front near the cockpit in particular - and their backgrounds are being checked too ?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:17
  #4173 (permalink)  
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My sincere apologies for posting as I am neither a pilot nor a communications expert...Hence, the feelings of guilt!
I have been reading this forum since the day of the incident and have found it more useful than the news
I have but one point (that was mentioned a few 1000 posts back!) and I hope smarter people than me may have some insights:
How and could the fires on the Melbourne to Abu Dhabi flight in Feb relate to MH370??
Could fires such as what happened be used to create a diversion, allowing a hijack take-over??.
I guess the one thing against that would be that I would have thought that someone would have notified ATC about any fire.....
It just seems suspicious to me that multiple fires occur on a 777 and a month later a 777 goes missing....Both were night flights...
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:19
  #4174 (permalink)  
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I agree with Passenger 389

Most likely scenario so far is that a disgruntled pilot with a psychological imbalance has tragically decided to exit with an enormous splash.

The fact that the final ping is recorded extremely close to the temporal fuel endurance of the aircraft might strongly suggest the aircraft was flown until the fuel ran out. It is also easy to speculate methods in which the only person on board who was alive for the 6-7 hours was the 'hijacker'! That being the case it is not a huge leap to speculate that the intention has always been to make the wreckage of this aircraft as difficult to find as it is possible to imagine. That also explains the erratic flight path. I am so sorry to say this, but perhaps this aircraft will never be found.

Truly terrifying 'terrorism' indeed! Cruel. Evil.

So if you wanted to 'hide' the end, would you take MH370 over land, or over thousands of miles of remote, deep ocean? (7400m in places!) Where surface debris has already had a week to drift unnoticed.

Of course, the intention could have just been to show up the talking head idiots, for precisely what they are! And my goodness haven't we had plenty on this one!!!

Finally. If this is just a one off, it's bad enough. It also makes a total mockery of security checks for pilots, since they are the only ones on board who don't NEED a 'weapon' (read nail file!!) to take over the controls! Better to give pilots more psychological checks. Perhaps akin to the screening received in Israel before every flight.

However if this isn't a 'standalone', another hijack, using a related method could have a similarly devastating effect on aviation as Sep 11th!

Worrying times for all.

Sincere condolences to all concerned.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:23
  #4175 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dmba View Post
The idea that it landed there was rumoured at the very start but quickly dismissed by Malaysian authorities.
Also China has denied the aircraft ever entered its airspace. Given the tensions with Russia/Japan/North Korea/Tibet (and even grumblings from the US and Australia about politics) etc, I'm betting China's radar/operations WOULD have picked up any anomalies and been straight onto them.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:29
  #4176 (permalink)  
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Xcitation: please read the account of how Uncle Sams military and allegedly his ATC organisation behaved on Sept 11th and then say you are confident that the scramble scenario would occur "TopGun" style in this corner of the world as you believe it should have.

It's nearly 13 years since that event, and it is probable that until this week most military setups are not really on alert like a coiled spring as the public would like to imagine.

Within weeks of 9/11 a small turboprop aircraft was discovered straying in the London TMA without a single F3 Tornado launched in response, not exactly trumpeted by the authorities at the time.
Yes - and a LOT has changed since then. I can personally recall hearing two air intercept events whilst flying in European airspace, and shared a rather somber beer with the captain of one of those aircraft, who had missed the fact that he had flown out of French CTA and into somebody else's with his VHF 1 inadvertently flipped to a previous frequency!
Bearing in mind they were following their flight planned routes and transponding appropriately, what do you think would have happened if they suddenly went OFF flight plan, disabling TX and ID kit, and dropped low level?
This is the very raison d'être of aviation security bodies and airforce fighter/interceptor "assets".
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:30
  #4177 (permalink)  
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Not unusual to tanker fuel up to the mainland Chinese ports. Ideally, sufficient fuel to get there and back but limited by landing weight etc.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:31
  #4178 (permalink)  
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The most likely reason for the extra fuel is trading at the destination airport.
Malaysia is an major oil producer. The national carrier can almost certainly negotiate a discount on its fuel prices at home. If it then needs to buy less fuel in Beijing, then it makes more money on the round trip.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:31
  #4179 (permalink)  
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Australian JORN OTH Radar

Here is the Fact Sheet for Jindalee.

The Laverton site could have picked up MH370 if it went south. JORN may not have been switched on however.

What is JORN?

• The Australian Defence Force (ADF) currently operates three OTHR systems as part of the
Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN). These radars are dispersed across Australia — at
Longreach in Queensland, Laverton in Western Australia and Alice Springs in the Northern
Territory — to provide surveillance coverage of Australia’s northern approaches.

• Radar data from these sensors is conveyed to the JORN Coordination Centre (JCC) within the Air
Force’s No 1 Radar Surveillance Unit (1RSU) at RAAF Base Edinburgh in South Australia. 1RSU
is tasked by higher headquarters to operate the JORN capability on a daily basis.

JORN does not operate on a 24 hour basis except during military contingencies. Defence’s
peacetime use of JORN focuses on those objects that the system has been designed to detect,
thus ensuring efficient use of resources.

• The JORN radars have an operating range of 1000–3000km, as measured from the radar array.
Figure 2 depicts the locations of the three OTHR systems and the JCC, and highlights the
coverage of each radar. Of note, the Alice Springs and Longreach radars cover an arc of 90
degrees each, whereas the Laverton OTHR coverage area extends through 180 degrees
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:31
  #4180 (permalink)  
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Obviously, I have not read every post. But could someone tell what evidence has come to light that has so many pointing the finger at one of the pilots? I've seen nothing that leads me to believe one of the pilots (to descend into the vernacular) 'went rogue'. In fact, the erratic altitude readouts not long after the diversion would appear to give some credence to either a struggle for control or someone at the controls having difficulty flying the aircraft.

Anyone who has flown as a line pilot or cabin crew for any length of time would not find it difficult to believe that, despite locked doors and security procedures in place since 2001, (and particularly given the position of the toilets on the 777), intruders could gain access to the cockpit with relative ease.

Neither should anyone be surprised that there might be someone out here with the engineering (and perhaps flying) expertise apparently displayed here whose skills could not either be bought - or just as likely, made available willingly by a committed believer of a cause.
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