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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:30
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THe press conference did say that RR were sending someone from the UK to talk to them about the readouts.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:30
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bad questions! worse answers!

Just watched the press conference, of which only some was in English.

What is so incredibly frustrating is that the reporters don't know what to ask, and even when they do, the spokesmen parry and evade.

The real question (imo) is: what data are you using, where did it come from, and who is analyzing it?

ACARS -- were there ANY notifications during this flight? when? what did they say?

ENGINE -- were there ANY anomalous transmissions? when? and when did the data STOP being transmitted to Rolls Royce?

RADAR -- which radar, from which countries, exactly, indicated a "turn back"? are there recordings? did anyone, military or civilian, flag this at the time? are all radar data from all possible sources being cross-analyzed?

TRANSPONDER -- does the time the transponder stopped transmitting exactly match or otherwise the alleged "turn"? ditto regarding its synchronicity with ACARS and engine data.

We need a timeline of verified data, NOT vague answers like "we need to find the black box." Right, and until we do, we need to know which indicators are indicating where it might be!

The reporters, instead of asking about the core known data and its provenance, are asking second- or third-order questions that require speculation or conclusions that would have to be *based* on the data! And then the officials reply with defection and obtuseness!

No one has said: here's what we know, here's how we know it, here's how it's being analyzed and leveraged, here's who's in charge of each aspect of the investigation and of the SAR, and here's how countries are collaborating and sharing information and dividing responsibilities.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:31
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In the absence of any other confirmed data the most reasonable explanation is the aircraft did indeed go down where the transponder ceased transmitting.
Totally agree.

Except there would not appear to be anything there.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:32
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two interesting statements of todays press conference:

1. If FAA/NTSB can positively confirm the unidentified plot on primary radar is MH370 the radar track will be made public on Thursday. Statement of Minister of Defense

2. The plot was according to RMAF chief: unidentified plot on primary radar at FL295, 200nm NW of Penang, at 0215. "We're not saying it's #MH370
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:32
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Who receives the ACARS information, the airline? When I heard the aircraft was missing, the first thing that come to mind was "What's was the ACARS information indicating at the time it disappeared? Hard to believe that a large modern airliner in this day and age can just disappear without trace.......
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:33
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Angel Enough

Okay boys and girls. Enough of the moderator bashing.

I've just had a reply from a great guy called Rob and he is dealing with a storm.

They're trying to trash the stuff that's being repeated over and over again, the stuff that's just plain crazy and trying to keep the posts on topic in succession.

So enough of this:

There`s been lots of mention of it- But you have to be quick to see it, because it just gets moderated by the all knowing moderators! they don`t want any talk of such things for some reason.

See how long these posts last?
Let's just stay sensible and stay on topic for once.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:35
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That email..

appears to describe a credible eyewitness account of an 'event' seen in the night sky.
Does Michael McKay exist, is the email address valid?
Is the addressee valid? Phu Quoc has an airport and thus presumably a tower (phuquoctwr@gmail)?
Hopefully it's being investigated...
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:36
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-how much other radars other than the Malaysia military could have picked up this plot on radar? Phuket?
Potentially worth for them to review tapes (if any) from Phuket, Had Yai, Surat Thani...

http://www.aisthai.aviation.go.th/we...d%20procedures[12].pdf
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:37
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Took 7 days to locate suspected wreckage of Adam air, and 10 days for floating debris.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:40
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two interesting statements of todays press conference:

1. If FAA/NTSB can positively confirm the unidentified plot on primary radar is MH370 the radar track will be made public on Thursday. Statement of Minister of Defense

2. The plot was according to RMAF chief: unidentified plot on primary radar at FL295, 200nm NW of Penang, at 0215. "We're not saying it's #MH370"
What the NTSB/FAA cannot say is that they can have conversations with classified US military sources that the Malaysians simply cannot have directly, so the FAA can possibly mysteriously verify or discount certain data to a much higher degree of confidence than the Malaysians can, because some classified US system tracked the plane for all or part of its flight path...
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:41
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The Gmail letter sent by an New Zealand oil rig worker of the coast of Vietnam turned out the be false. The journalist (Florian Witulski @vaitor ) who posted a photo Tweeted:

BBC also reported about the letter but it turned out to be false information... nothing at the Ho Chi Minh coast
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 11:56
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Is there anybody un this forum who can shed some light on how modern radar equipment works? On the old fashoned CRT design you could simply adjust brightness to get rid of all the noise on the screen (birds etc.). How is sensitivity adjusted today? How is information filtered (i.e. are single returns filtered automatically by the software, because they are obviously noise, and are only repetitatve returns moving within a certain reasonable speed range shown)?
What exactly is recorded? Raw data? Displayed Data? Analyzed, filtered Data? Can we (the civilians...) run special analysis software on that data to scan through it for interesting details?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:01
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Checked FR24 at 07 MAR 2014 - 18:10 UTC (08 MAR 2014 02:10 local time)

FR24 shows SQ68 FL300 SIN - BCN B777W approx 200 miles north-west of Penang.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:06
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Military aircraft operating between Diego Garcia and Senkaku (or other islands in the South China Sea) would probably transit exactly through the area where the unidentified radar contact was plotted. Especially if Vietnamese an Indonesian airspace is to be avoided.

Air to air refueling might also happen in this region. Some military a/c is designed to have very small radar cross sections, so it might not be easy to identify plots of those a/c. The radar plots may well be totally unrelated to MH370. Support by FAA/NTSB makes sense.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:06
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How is it possible that sophisticated air force like RMAF failed to detect the plane for over 1 hour and flag it as possible incursion?
...maybe for similar reasons why during the Cold War days a Cessna 172 could be successfully flown by a teenager, and landed on Red Square, en route from Helsinki to Moscow.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:06
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Life Raft Provisions

Generally, how long are the lift raft provisions designed to sustain life for? Could this still be a rescue operation if the airplane was ditched successfully or has it been too long now?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:08
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Wed 12th Mar Press Conference

The best PC thus far, they have clarified a few things. I think the pressure put on them to improve the PC has worked slightly, ideally would be nice if they could use the screen behind them to do a little demonstration of the sequence of events so every one is on the same page.

0121 Last radio contact
0130 Last ATC Radar contact
- then onto Military Radar, turn west to west peninsular -
0215 Military Radar loses the unidentified aircraft 200nm NW of Penang at an altitude of 29,500ft (FL295)

They confirmed the 5 passengers did not travel on the plane, but was then replaced by 5 on standby.

1. Would FL295 show the plane was under control by someone (hopefully pilot) for separations from traffic?

2. Which 5 would be on the Manifest? with 239 passengers surely they had space for the standby's anyway?

3. 0240hrs is now null and void?
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:15
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See dyes post re:sq68 in area at 0210

I have my doubts mh370 was there an hour after initial contact lost, but we will find out eventually.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:17
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Radars can give elevation (not directly height), return time lag (not directly distance) and frequency shift (not directly line-of-sight speed), if they can form a 2D beam on the sky from a phased-array, broadcast a series of beams at different stacked elevations, or do an old WWII-Freya scan with a dish.

Analysis of this information, and the measured motion on the sky between scans then gives 3-D velocity, distance and height, correcting for refraction, Earth curvature and trigonometric coupling of height and distance to elevation.

Standard rotating antennas with dipole array transmitters, like the old iconic Heathrow radar on the concrete pillar by the tunnel entrance on the terminal island, don't do elevation, and rely on transponder broadcasts.
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Old 12th Mar 2014, 12:17
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Isn't there a radar on top of Penang Hill? It's military and would serve Butterworth? Surely it would have picked up anything coming that way.
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