Airblue down near Islamabad
p51guy, your "cause" is tautological.
The question is, Why?
An accident investigation is the means to determine the answer to this question in an attempt to prevent it from occuring again. That is now in process. A simplistic answer pointing to a single "cause" rarely, if ever, covers the mix of factors which result, (or not) in an accident.
We need to know what the crew was saying to one another so we can understand what the decision-making process, such as it may have been, was. We need to know if the TAWS provided any warnings and what, if any, was the response of the crew. We need to understand whether the airport was kept in view and if not why not. We need to know if they lost SA but didn't execute a missed approach or if they thought what they were doing was perfectly reasonable until just before the CFIT.
A number of plausible scenarios have been provided by thoughtful posters. Hopefully we will learn what happened once the information on the recorders is discussed publicly.
PJ2
The question is, Why?
An accident investigation is the means to determine the answer to this question in an attempt to prevent it from occuring again. That is now in process. A simplistic answer pointing to a single "cause" rarely, if ever, covers the mix of factors which result, (or not) in an accident.
We need to know what the crew was saying to one another so we can understand what the decision-making process, such as it may have been, was. We need to know if the TAWS provided any warnings and what, if any, was the response of the crew. We need to understand whether the airport was kept in view and if not why not. We need to know if they lost SA but didn't execute a missed approach or if they thought what they were doing was perfectly reasonable until just before the CFIT.
A number of plausible scenarios have been provided by thoughtful posters. Hopefully we will learn what happened once the information on the recorders is discussed publicly.
PJ2
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Green Gaurd:
I linked the Jepp charts much earlier in the thread. The note is on the airport diagram. Such notes tend to come from miscellaneous airdrome information. It is not a procedural directive on the official state instrument approach procedure. It, thus, has no legal standing, especially when airdrome weather is less than basic VFR. Under those circumstances the approach chart is controlling, and the three Runway 30 IAP charts have no conditions or restrictions for circling from those three IAPs for landing on Runway 12.
Of course ATC could place a tactical restriction on a CTL during less than basic VFR, such as "circle north of the airport for landing on Runway 12." (or south instead of north). ATC is usually hesitant to place such restrictions in marginal weather conditions, especially when they are not associated directly with thre CTL minimums on the official document; i.e., the approach chart itself.
State authorities would do well to either remove that ad hoc note that Jeppesen charts on the airport diagram or, alternatively, be more verbose.
I do not have any Jepp chart right here, but if this "note" is there,
even if drawing on the chart was CORRECT, that "note" is definitely WRONG.
even if drawing on the chart was CORRECT, that "note" is definitely WRONG.
Of course ATC could place a tactical restriction on a CTL during less than basic VFR, such as "circle north of the airport for landing on Runway 12." (or south instead of north). ATC is usually hesitant to place such restrictions in marginal weather conditions, especially when they are not associated directly with thre CTL minimums on the official document; i.e., the approach chart itself.
State authorities would do well to either remove that ad hoc note that Jeppesen charts on the airport diagram or, alternatively, be more verbose.
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Originally Posted by aterpster
I linked the Jepp charts much earlier in the thread. The note is on the airport diagram.
No wonder the masses are getting confused! What does this note about R12 actually say?
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What does the note mean? Does it mean to or from Runway 30? Perhaps when the weather is good VFR aircraft arrive from the west on occasion. The note could (probably) mean "fly right hand traffic for landing on Runway 30."
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to clear all your confusions out
you can fly ONLY 1 circuit in OPRN.
right hand circuits for RWY30 ( north side of the field). no left hand circuit on RWY30 because you would enter the prohibited area which is just south of hte field., even for GA airplanes, no left circuits because you would over fly the air defence command and transport wing HQ of the PAF
NO CIRCUIT FLYING WHEN RWY12 is active. period. you cant fly a right hand circuit on RWY12 because of the prohibited areas. and you cant fly a left hand circuit ( north side of the field) because appraoch side is still 30 and the circle to land is on the north side of the field
that note has nothing to do with the circle to land. its a note telling the ONLY right hand circiuts on RWY30 allowed at the field.
you can fly ONLY 1 circuit in OPRN.
right hand circuits for RWY30 ( north side of the field). no left hand circuit on RWY30 because you would enter the prohibited area which is just south of hte field., even for GA airplanes, no left circuits because you would over fly the air defence command and transport wing HQ of the PAF
NO CIRCUIT FLYING WHEN RWY12 is active. period. you cant fly a right hand circuit on RWY12 because of the prohibited areas. and you cant fly a left hand circuit ( north side of the field) because appraoch side is still 30 and the circle to land is on the north side of the field
that note has nothing to do with the circle to land. its a note telling the ONLY right hand circiuts on RWY30 allowed at the field.
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Thank you denlop -I hope that has cleared up R30 for them.
I actually think you are incorrect (although it is irrelevant to this accident) about circling - there is NO published restriction other than 'do not overfly the city or prohibited areas' and it would be perfectly feasible to fly left-hand circuits on R12 if there was no IFR traffic on R30. If not, that would rather hamper base training etc with a wind too strong for R30.
It is a very badly worded airport chart sequence - either the OPRN authority or Jepp are at fault. If there are to be NO visual circuits on R12 it should say so - it does not..
I actually think you are incorrect (although it is irrelevant to this accident) about circling - there is NO published restriction other than 'do not overfly the city or prohibited areas' and it would be perfectly feasible to fly left-hand circuits on R12 if there was no IFR traffic on R30. If not, that would rather hamper base training etc with a wind too strong for R30.
It is a very badly worded airport chart sequence - either the OPRN authority or Jepp are at fault. If there are to be NO visual circuits on R12 it should say so - it does not..
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Ok , gents , just back on thread , quite hard to keep up , but any ideas on the EGPWS database I questioned earlier ?
I still want to know what heading they were on when finally hitting the granite . This could be very interesting .
I still want to know what heading they were on when finally hitting the granite . This could be very interesting .
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Kota - heading-wise you'll have to wait for the report (!!??). A guess can be determined by looking at Machaca's pictures in post #81 showing the rock face and debris and PF's picture 3 in post #124 which to me suggest about WNW after or in a left turn - but that is 'pure' guesswork.
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Questions
Hi everybody,
1) The jepp chart specifes "PANS OPS" : does this mean all the posts about TERPS and the "FAA examiner" are simply irrelevant ?
2) since the published minimas are identical for CAT C and CAT D A/C is it reasonable to believe that the CTL OCA is based on a 5.28 Nm radius from threshold, a 242 Kts speed, a 20° bank angle and a 2.34 Nm radius turn ?
3) IMHO, the Jepp chart specifies "right-hand circuit" only in case of non-standard (ie L/H) circuit.
Since nothing is specified for RWY 12, it must be a L/H circuit.
4) you do not have to see the RWY at the MDA (nor perform a GA if you do not see the RWY during "downwind" leg) :
on the ILS, at 842' aal, with 2400m horizontal visibilitly you have NO chance to see the RWY.
You must see the RWY to descend below the MDA.
What puzzles me is : how a modern jet can be flying without any kind of GPS input in it's FMS.
(Map shift + GPWS/EGPWS remain open issues).
P.S. : for "CC", on modern jets you do not need aymore to use the radar to "see" the moutains ahead : a "terrain" display (based on EGPWS) is available on the ND.
One of the best (with the TCAS) single improvement these past 40 years.
1) The jepp chart specifes "PANS OPS" : does this mean all the posts about TERPS and the "FAA examiner" are simply irrelevant ?
2) since the published minimas are identical for CAT C and CAT D A/C is it reasonable to believe that the CTL OCA is based on a 5.28 Nm radius from threshold, a 242 Kts speed, a 20° bank angle and a 2.34 Nm radius turn ?
3) IMHO, the Jepp chart specifies "right-hand circuit" only in case of non-standard (ie L/H) circuit.
Since nothing is specified for RWY 12, it must be a L/H circuit.
4) you do not have to see the RWY at the MDA (nor perform a GA if you do not see the RWY during "downwind" leg) :
on the ILS, at 842' aal, with 2400m horizontal visibilitly you have NO chance to see the RWY.
You must see the RWY to descend below the MDA.
What puzzles me is : how a modern jet can be flying without any kind of GPS input in it's FMS.
(Map shift + GPWS/EGPWS remain open issues).
P.S. : for "CC", on modern jets you do not need aymore to use the radar to "see" the moutains ahead : a "terrain" display (based on EGPWS) is available on the ND.
One of the best (with the TCAS) single improvement these past 40 years.
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BOAC
i trained and operated out for OPRN for a while. if you do a right hand circuit you would over fly the previous house of the Chief of the Air Staff and his office. they just happen to be below the downwind leg for a right hand circuit for rwy12 plus the entire circuit would be flown over army airborne logistics center and PAF base Chaklala. im sure you understand the military was too happy about it. therefore no right circuits for rwy12 to as far back as i remember. neither civil nor military allowed to fly any circuit on rwy12. north side ATC restriction, south side mlitary restriction.
i still remember sitting on the ground the whole day waiting for the runway to change back to 30 so that we could go up for a few bang and go's
. i think i lost an inch in height thanks to some very special students
i trained and operated out for OPRN for a while. if you do a right hand circuit you would over fly the previous house of the Chief of the Air Staff and his office. they just happen to be below the downwind leg for a right hand circuit for rwy12 plus the entire circuit would be flown over army airborne logistics center and PAF base Chaklala. im sure you understand the military was too happy about it. therefore no right circuits for rwy12 to as far back as i remember. neither civil nor military allowed to fly any circuit on rwy12. north side ATC restriction, south side mlitary restriction.
i still remember sitting on the ground the whole day waiting for the runway to change back to 30 so that we could go up for a few bang and go's
. i think i lost an inch in height thanks to some very special students
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Gerard - thank you for a concise clarification of it all.
1) Yes - 411A froth, bubble and distraction
2) Yes, apart from the speed which I think is around 200-210kts max for Cat D?
3) perfect
4) Yes
Good score!
denlop - see 4).
PS I NEVER mentioned a 'right hand circuit' on R12 - you invented that
. I can see NO reason not to circuit left on R12 and that is what I would ask to do if I arrived from the south in good weather. Perhaps I would not be allowed since you say "north side ATC restriction" - where is that published?
1) Yes - 411A froth, bubble and distraction
2) Yes, apart from the speed which I think is around 200-210kts max for Cat D?
3) perfect
4) Yes
Good score!
denlop - see 4).
PS I NEVER mentioned a 'right hand circuit' on R12 - you invented that
. I can see NO reason not to circuit left on R12 and that is what I would ask to do if I arrived from the south in good weather. Perhaps I would not be allowed since you say "north side ATC restriction" - where is that published?
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i never invented it lol. just mentioned it for clarification that no circuits on the south side and no circuits at all with 12 in use.
no circuits on the north side when rwy12 is in use is to deconflict the circuit with the circle to land procedure. its a local ATC restriction. i think the restriction is there in the AIP, i cant recall for certain.
no circuits on the north side when rwy12 is in use is to deconflict the circuit with the circle to land procedure. its a local ATC restriction. i think the restriction is there in the AIP, i cant recall for certain.
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BOAC:
More likely the OPRN authority.
Having said that, you have a German (Jepp's Frankfurt office handles that part of the world) translating from a foreign lanaguage to a foreign language. The Pakistani's may publish their AIP in English but many countries do not.
And, no doubt circling off the Runway 30 ILS is authorized. Seems like lacking company directives it would be folly, though.
It is a very badly worded airport chart sequence - either the OPRN authority or Jepp are at fault. If there are to be NO visual circuits on R12 it should say so - it does not..
Having said that, you have a German (Jepp's Frankfurt office handles that part of the world) translating from a foreign lanaguage to a foreign language. The Pakistani's may publish their AIP in English but many countries do not.
And, no doubt circling off the Runway 30 ILS is authorized. Seems like lacking company directives it would be folly, though.
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And, no doubt circling off the Runway 30 ILS is authorized. Seems like lacking company directives it would be folly, though
We know it is 'authorised' - it is on the chart.
What 'company directives' do you need for a standard flight manoeuvre, trained and practised by nearly all crews?
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BOAC:
In this part of the world air carrier flight crews must have airport qualifications for every authorized airport. This can range from something as simple as a study guide and questionaire to perhaps a fairly comprehensive video and Jeppesen color airport photographs, weather trend briefing pages and, for some more difficult airports, a special authorization, which may consist of the first entry with a check airman.
I hope that gets you back.
- once again you have lost me!
We know it is 'authorised' - it is on the chart.
What 'company directives' do you need for a standard flight manoeuvre, trained and practised by nearly all crews?
We know it is 'authorised' - it is on the chart.
What 'company directives' do you need for a standard flight manoeuvre, trained and practised by nearly all crews?
I hope that gets you back.
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aterpster - that, I think, is a world-wide system (not peculiar to 'this part of the world'), called (under EUOPS 1.975) 'route and area qualification' and all crews are so qualified. Category A is normally renewed by the annual recurrent line check, whilst Cat B and Cat C airports and areas have different training and testing requirements. You are suggesting, I take it, that OPRN is a special category airport, possibly requiring a route check before circling is attempted or some specific 'company directives' for circling? If so, do we know that this Captain was so checked or trained? Perhaps you have opened a door onto this tragedy which may explain the apparent crew error. Perhaps someone familiar with AirBlue's ops manual could comment? I cannot see why a competent crew could not be expected to conduct a straightforward and simple CTL at OPRN (or any airport), but maybe herein lies part of the reason for this accident?
Gobona - same report, different source.
Gobona - same report, different source.