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Polish Government Tu154M crash

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Polish Government Tu154M crash

Old 21st Apr 2010, 22:19
  #861 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Warsaw, Poland
Posts: 2
Excuse this quote from a literary gent who has a PPL.

It is a quote from a novel by Honore de Balzac which is curiously apposite given the terrain and partly explains the psychology behind this accident. Naturally not the complex aviation science but in the end fallible men are at the controls. In Warsaw I see it all the time in the driving too - everyone is in the Targa Florio race going to work.

In La Cousine Bette Balzac created the Polish nobleman Count Wenceslas Steinbock and wrote perceptively of Poles: . . . for if you show a Pole a precipice, he is bound to leap it. As a nation they have the very spirit of cavalry; they fancy they can ride down every obstacle and come out victorious.

This laudable attitude which was so famously successful in Spitfire Squadron 303 tragically failed on this occasion....

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Old 21st Apr 2010, 22:31
  #862 (permalink)  
 
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PJ2,
Exactly, and I believe this to be high on the list of "possibles", in the lack of further official information.
It fits.
Of course, it could be something else entirely.
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Old 21st Apr 2010, 23:55
  #863 (permalink)  
BMP
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
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PJ2

Thanks for the scaled chart that shows the horizontal and vertical on the same scale.

What is your opinion of the following:

1) visibility - per this new version of the crash video (taken just minutes after the fact, the visibility appears to be along the lines of what has been reported - about 400 meters (at :45 in the video, it pans away from the smoke area to a clear view of the far side of the field.

YouTube - deshaked version of the plane crash footage


Given this level of visability, how do you explain the AC flying so low in the first place. On your chart, were they to have 400m vertical visibility, they would have been able to see the ground during the approach for several miles.

Do you agree?

2) This photo of the port engine (?)


???-??????? Picasa - ?????? ?????? - ?????????????...

has no indication of blade fracture or centrifugal slinging of debris - is there any chance this engine was under power at the time of the crash?
It appears the blades are largely intact despite the crushing of the housing and the mud seems to have been deposited onto a stationary rotor.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 04:49
  #864 (permalink)  
 
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Re QNH vs QFE, yes possible, but highly unlikely. You would have to press really hard to get a QNH from a military controller in Russia, difficult enough on an international airport. I guess they just succumbed to the pressure of having VIPs in the cabin and decided to have a look, and simply got it wrong.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 05:43
  #865 (permalink)  
 
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decided to have a look, and simply got it wrong
If the Chief of Training of the PAF suggest exactly what you have written,
than it's really hair rising...

Do they have a procedure in their training "have a look" ???



"The pilot knew that the ceremony is important"

Czaban said that Protasiuk already flown several times in the Smolensk airport. He pointed out that an explanation of why the disaster happened is the matter of a special commission.

According to Czaban, the pilot "had to take into account several factors", such as the importance of Katyn ceremony and the fact that the delegation was late, and therefore "decided to check whether he can make it." - For some reason he has not taken the decision to divert - said the general. When asked if there is something like " VIP airplane syndrome", he said: - As I am 32 years in aviation, no one trains pilots to risk more than what is in legislation.



Source:

Google T?umacz

Gen. Czaban: Pilot podj?? decyzj? na sprawdzanie czy si? uda

Last edited by Ptkay; 22nd Apr 2010 at 07:03.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 09:26
  #866 (permalink)  
 
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re "why they don't give us the exact time of the crash"; Smolensk site believes that 16 min later is when it was officially, like, verified, may be ? written in some procedural ? books. Registered. May be the time when the aerodrome staff and the meeting, Polish group staff - made it onto the scene.

First were definitely fire brigades, they drove the run-way and turned right into the? field - but stuck there - the first truck turned around spoke it's no go from this side, drove the run-way back, so that others don't follow them here, and they drove to the crash side from the outer, other side.

But they find important to pin-point it as several media wrote "at 8:50 the plane ...." "flying over... and "at 9 o'clock the aircraft" noting that at "8:50" the aircraft and at "9 o'clock" "the aircraft" - did nothing of the kind. As has crashed already.

There was even a joke there, on the site, that the investigation committees - Polish and Russian - wait for what this on-line Smolesnk investigation blog has to say on the matter - afraid to publish something - and get wrong - against Smolesnk forum facts!
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 09:40
  #867 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone can comment on this?

In Presidential Tupolev the system - according to Colonel. Pietrzak - was probably blocked. Both the aircraft types Boeing , Airbus or other, which have TAWS, if the pressure is given in absolute sea level, do not use it because it will provide false information - said the colonel.
Full text:
Google Translate

Last edited by Tonden; 22nd Apr 2010 at 09:57.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 09:52
  #868 (permalink)  
 
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On this page photos of two sample fogs in Smolensk; poster Aml.
The general view over the forest and by the wall going around the old town.

? ????????? ???? ??????? • ?????????? ?????

The photo with one big building is fog in another city.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 14:09
  #869 (permalink)  
 
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There is polish investigation team press conference right now.
About CVR:
Seremet: Decission about black box records
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 15:44
  #870 (permalink)  
 
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Tonden, the link you gave has been edited (censored?) in the meantime.

Here is the link to the original interview with Col. Pietrzak.

Tomasz Pietrzak: Tupolew mia? zblokowany system ostrzegawczy (TAWS) - Wywiady - Opinie w RMF24

Google T?umacz
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 16:17
  #871 (permalink)  
 
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How come no one is talking abt the Tu-204 which crashed in near identical circumstances a month ago?

Those guys tried to land in poor viz w/o ILS and they landed in the trees short of the runway. The Polish Prez plane tried to land sans ILS and they crashed in the trees short of the rwy. Am I the only one who is detecting a pattern here? Maybe it's not such an easy thing to do.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 16:43
  #872 (permalink)  
 
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The Tu-204 accident was mentioned by me on this thread,
but at the beginning and in the context of engine failure.

In the meantime the engine failure has been more or less eliminated
as the reason for the accident, therefore the Tu-204 has been more or less
forgotten.

But I think, it would be interesting to know more.

Anyone form Russia knows anything more?
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 16:47
  #873 (permalink)  
 
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QNH/QFE is not an issue.
There is a radio altimeter on board.
With this type of terrain it had shown 8 meters (or ZERO) at the time of first tree impact.
Radio altimeters are precise and redundant they have a warning flag as they fail.
The typical OCH for an NDB approach is something like 60 or 100 meters RADIO ALTITUDE (RA).

How to continue to fly with an indication of ZERO is a miracle to me, unless they thought they are overhead the runway.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 17:03
  #874 (permalink)  
 
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The first (outer) NDB was 6km instead of 4 km from the runway in Smoleńsk.

So after flying 4 km from the outer NDB they expected to be over the runway,
although the haven't found or got the inner (second) NDB marker.

The firat impact and 0m altimeter was 4 km from the first NDB.
So they might have expected to be over the runway there.

Also bear in mind, that due to the ravine the RA readings just
few seconds before were 100m or more, quite confusing...
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 17:34
  #875 (permalink)  
 
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The tu-204 preliminary report:


* Pilots didn't inform ATC that ILS wasn't used
* Apparently, there are indications on CVR that a GPS navigation system was used instead
* Last message from ATC to pilots was that they were left of glideslope, crash occured while they tried a course correction
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 17:53
  #876 (permalink)  
 
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>> re Tu204

No, no mention of any engine probs in the official materials posted so far. With the ILS indicators out, they were trying to land using nav aids which were available (whatever those were).
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 19:00
  #877 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
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Hi
Just a quick question .
If there was a plane landing just before the tragic crash , why no one bothered to
interwiev pilots of that plane about language that they were using to talk to control tower , what correction for altimeter was given , what kind of approach was it
etc. ? and also aids avaliable ? If I'm right it was less than an hour before .
So lights before runway for example should be same.
Sorry if I'm talking bull...
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 19:26
  #878 (permalink)  
 
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Thoughts about the engine turbine intact.
Everythig at high rpms exposed to impact tend's to self destruct very fast.
Try to lift and drop running vacuum cleaner ( which is sort of a turbine ) and see the insides after. So looks like engine wasn't runnig at high rpms when pilot was trying to pull up ( full throttle ? ) . Strange ? Dont know how much time it takes to spin up , so maybe didnt , becouse there wasn't enough time.
That maybe another bullsh..
Sorry if it is
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 19:55
  #879 (permalink)  
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Exactly my point.

Here is a fan that shows the typical damage when it impacts under power.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multime...o7_493377a.jpg

This is not seen on the Polish engine and it leads one to think it was not under power.
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Old 22nd Apr 2010, 20:57
  #880 (permalink)  
 
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Ptkay, you've asked on TU204. That was indeed quite recent and MAK still researches. Nobody hurries them, because not much public pressure, no casualties and all at home, all, how to say, ours.
Unlike this highly politicised case.
I can look up at MAK site what they have published on TU204.
MAK-Mezh Avia Commission-Btw States Avia Commission-working for the Commonwealth. we have a Commonwealth here, ex-USSR countries minus Georgia and Baltics, let me see, 15-4, commission for 11 countries. Say, 10. Ukraine goes in :o), goes out :o), and others fluctuate, it's flexible Commonwealth.

What I heard is TU204 - for strarters - had a fire all along :o), on the way to some health resort, full of passangers. Now, on arrival, forgot to where, Egypt? all passangers ran away out of it very happy, and returning to Moscow passangers naturally didn't board, because who will take them. Given they were so lucky they flew with fire on board the whole way and landed. So the crew in that unknown place fixed themselves a bit as they could and flew back home. And crashed in forest, in approach to airport. And survived. So we don't even know, given the circumstances, if to consider this plane travel as unlucky or actually incredibly lucky.
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