peak oil

[B.L.G Bob]

Bascially it would take a re-run of 1973 to wake everyone up the reality of how fragile the dependance on hydrocarbon fuels is. If the price at the pump in US remained high following such a crisis then our American neighbours would have to economise. A wee one litre engine can cruise happy at 70 mph as much a 4.7 litre V8 giving 16 mpg. Thereafter there probably be a big push for investment into research into improvement of renewable and alternate fuels.

I agree that economics of exploration and developement of untapped resources are going to be a factor before the reserves run out, as in the coal industry in the U.K. This also includes the development costs of new technology to get at it. Funny thing is it appears that it is the big oil companys who may have the resouces and investment to such research

We need to be scared shtless and realise that everything currently taken for granted, can or could be lost very quickly.

Just as quickly over the 20 century technology developed and advanced, we may see it just as quickly decline.

Hopefully not because I would still like to fly!

[High Wing Drifter]

Any chance of a justification, HWD ?

Simply that I can't see why consumption would double. If that were the case, then not only would we have to assume no advances in technology, but also the size of the economy would double (at least). Not very likely in twenty years!! If anything, consumption will reduce as pressure mounts and fuel cell/hydrogen/hybrid cars/trucks hit the market and at worst remain static. Necessity is the mother of invention after all.

But the future does indeed look grim in that respect. Mind you they said there would only 50 years supply 30 years ago...but it has to run out at some point. It just depends which false alarm is real.

Just heard on the radio, that in order to limit carbon consumption to reasonable levels that would ensure plenty of supply for the world population a per person ration would have to institued. This amount is for a single lifetime is aparently one third of the amount of fuel consumed by a round trip UK-US-UK flight. What is a the consumption for a 747? 6000kg/hr? 6000*16hrs/200(people)/0.82 = 585 ltrs of fuel. So per person a lifetime's ration would be 195 litres (585/3). In my Fiat Cinquecento (a Sporting of course) that would be 1,625 miles!!

[K2SkyRider]

Simply that I can't see why consumption would double.

HWD , if you read any recent studies compiled by leading scientists and engineers, then maybe you will see why. They have done extensive research and have predicted a future trend, which is an ever-increasing energy demand. Hence at some point in the next 20-50 years a doubling of our current demand.

Cheers,

K2

[High Wing Drifter]

Hi K2SkyRider,

I agree that studies may say different, but shouldn't car usage now be 10 times what it was ten years ago? In fact it has remained fairly static...in the UK at least.

My point is I do not know of one single trend that was successfully or remotely accurately predicted a decade or two in advance. Personally, I just don't see anything to suggest a doubling of consumption. A doubling in twenty years would suggest that it is an exponential increase. If that is the case, then it would double again in 30 years and again in 35 years! Doesn't hold water IMHO!

Using empirical data alone and not trying to make fancy predictions (like wot these experts do) the figures I have seen are an annual increase of 2%. for the US The current rate of consuption by the US is 19 million barrels a day. So:

Using the compound interest formula from memory which I think is correct and looks right: 19 * ( 2/100+1) ^ 20 = 28 million bpd in 20 years. That assumes that consuption continues to increase. Granted a hefty increase but no where near doubling.

This seems to back-up my calculation: http://energy.senate.gov/legislation...rts/chart8.pdf

However, I worry that we are too late in moving away from fossil fuels. Even acting now will require major personal cutbacks in our use of energy.

[OE-LBA]

I don't know, but when I look over here, I clearly can see who would have the task to reduce his consumption and push forward research...
(And please don't come up with the argument that the USA are such a big country and have a lot of habitants who are consuming. Just divide it by the number of people and they are still the top-consumer...)

Quite another issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if America hasn't left Iraq at the 30th of june - not before they have pressed out the last barrel of oil...

[ockham hold]

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Simply that I can't see why consumption would double.
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HWD, Here is a fact: Last year new car sales in India rose by 30% and economists expect similar growth in the next few years as India's economy is booming. The Chinese economy also has a high growth rate, in fact the government is actively trying to cool it down.

Within another generation the Indians and Chinese will expect to drive their kids to school in a 4WD SUV. They have just as much a right to do this as we do. The effect on oil reserves and the environment of hundreds of millions more cars does not bear thinking about.

We all need to start thinking about this very seriously. We might need to see if we can live our lives using less energy.

When the second world war broke out and private use of petrol was severley restricted, my grandfather locked the family car in the garage and for six years it stayed there. After an awkward few days the family managed to find ways around the loss. Giving a little thought to planning journeys in advance and sharing resources with neighbours helped a lot.

Changing our present lifestyle would not be the end of the world. It might be if we don't.

[Pax Vobiscum]

I agree with ockham hold about where the increase in usage will be coming from. I'm not so sure about the ease with which we can adjust our lifestyle, though.

In the 40s we didn't have out of town shopping centres and commuting distances were much less. I often travel to Exeter from my home (between London and Oxford), about 180 miles each way and I usually take the train, because it's much less hassle than the M4/M5. But I still have to drive 15 miles to get to the nearest station. On public transport that would add a couple of hours to the journey time ...

There's a lot that could be done to reduce unnecessary journeys. I'd start by making it illegal to park within a mile of every school

[High Wing Drifter]

HWD, Here is a fact: Last year new car sales in India rose by 30% and economists expect similar growth in the next few years as India's economy is booming. The Chinese economy also has a high growth rate, in fact the government is actively trying to cool it down.

Well the case I was grappling with was specifically why US consumption won't double. However, you are spot on. As the Asian middle class expands at an exponential rate then their consumption could equal or exceed ours.

The middle class in India and China is still tiny compared to the working class as a whole. There is a long way to go and 30% of not much is even less. It is China I think that is on the road to more economic stability and will have the biggest impact on the world soonest.

However, considering the probable amount of time that it will take for that expansion to gather pace, it will inevitably be stymied by the increasing drain on oil. A plus point is that hydrogen/fuel cell cars are just around the corner (some are available now in hybrid form). Hopefully, by that time the only new cars are fuel cell powered. Looks like the Airship is due a comeback too!

[dudduddud]

illegal to park within a mile of every school

I'm hearin' ya Pax Vobiscum! I live 300m from a school!

First of all, i reckon it's not in OPEC's interest to let on exactly how long we've got, lest they lose dollars to alternative fuel in their last few years.

We need a definitive value on how long we have and we need to start planning.

eg: Whats the point in building a second airport when oil prices force 1/3 of the carriers out of the market on the way to oil total exhaustion?

The United Nations' most important role ever?

In not a fascist or anything but govt (at least western govt.) seem to 'fiddle and tweak'. My only fear is they wont be able to 'fiddle and tweak' fast enough to keep up with the oil exhaustion process


We have so many different commissions and reports that say different things, we need to have a definitive road to follow or else we'll wake up one morning and the power's off.
What are you gonna do when they shut the supermarkets and turn the traffic lights off?

Just a thought... cos it's my generations that's gonna have to deal with this after all.

[steamchicken]

Sheikh Yamani, of course, said that the Stone Age came to an end but it wasn't for lack of stones, and the same would happen to the Oil Age.