Hi K2SkyRider,
I agree that studies may say different, but shouldn't car usage now be 10 times what it was ten years ago? In fact it has remained fairly static...in the UK at least.
My point is I do not know of one single trend that was successfully or remotely accurately predicted a decade or two in advance. Personally, I just don't see anything to suggest a doubling of consumption. A doubling in twenty years would suggest that it is an exponential increase. If that is the case, then it would double again in 30 years and again in 35 years! Doesn't hold water IMHO!
Using empirical data alone and not trying to make fancy predictions (like wot these experts do) the figures I have seen are an annual increase of 2%. for the US The current rate of consuption by the US is 19 million barrels a day. So:
Using the compound interest formula from memory which I think is correct and looks right: 19 * ( 2/100+1) ^ 20 = 28 million bpd in 20 years. That assumes that consuption continues to increase. Granted a hefty increase but no where near doubling.
This seems to back-up my calculation:
http://energy.senate.gov/legislation...rts/chart8.pdf
However, I worry that we are too late in moving away from fossil fuels. Even acting now will require major personal cutbacks in our use of energy.