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-   -   Sheer Bad Luck (https://www.pprune.org/rotorheads/609758-sheer-bad-luck.html)

Davey Emcee 6th Jun 2018 08:25

Sheer Bad Luck
 
https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-36981116.html

http://i68.tinypic.com/i4mjgx.jpg

KNIEVEL77 6th Jun 2018 09:10

Very sad report.
Maybe this link should also be posted in the “Inadvertant IMC Question” thread as a lesson to us all.

Thomas coupling 6th Jun 2018 09:17

Here is the thread

Pauk Hanannt saying it was "sheer bad luck", WTF?? [Whats an ex senior investigator doing by being subjective about an AAIB report anyway?
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.

Bad luck - bad luck is getting to his destination late because he had to land because of the weather. That's bad luck FFS.



Early days and it is PPRuNe....

I was first on scene in the police helicopter when we found the wreckage of a FW that had stoofed just shy of the summit in this vicinity in Snowdon. The driver had bought the farm but there was one survivor who we airlifted to hospital. He recalled much later on stating that the pilot had worked out his MSA based on the leg he should have taken but was 'put off' by the bad weather in the area and deviated slightly but still used the MSA he had planned on. He hit just shy of the summit by 200 feet - CFIT.

I suspect (based on experience) that when the words PPL holder and IMC are thrown into the mix - it eventually forms the last two holes in the swiss cheese model.
Pilots who go inadvertent IMC who DO NOT have a current IMC rating WITH recent currency, are committing potential suicide.
If he was current and qualified - it could well have been miscalc of MSA / heading, or of course the rare issue of mechanical problem(s).
My money is on inadvertent IMC with a PPL attached.

RiP guys.

Next...........................

212man 6th Jun 2018 10:57


Pauk Hanannt saying it was "sheer bad luck", WTF?? [Whats an ex senior investigator doing by being subjective about an AAIB report anyway?
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.
It wasn't Paul that said that - it was the coroner:


In conclusion, HM Senior Coroner for North West Wales, Dewi Pritchard Jones, said Mr Burke's training and licence was for flying in conditions where he was able to see the terrain and that "ideally" he should have turned back in the thick cloud.
He pointed out that near Trawsfynydd there was an area of "relatively flattish land" and said: "Had he seen that through the cloud I am certain that would have given him the false confidence that he was at a good and safe height above ground level.

"Unfortunately, Rhinog Fawr is not a mountain that gradually increases in height. It is more a series of walls of steep ridges and rocks.

"My belief is that his instruments would not have given him much warning of the ridges.
"Being at the height he was, it was inevitable he would hit that ridge. It led to the complete destruction of the aircraft.

Recording verdicts of misadventure for all five deceased, he said: "Here we have a situation of sheer bad luck. This aircraft was not greatly below its safe height. It just clipped the mountainside."


EESDL 6th Jun 2018 11:53


Originally Posted by 212man (Post 10166342)
It wasn't Paul that said that - it was the coroner:


This aircraft was not greatly below its safe height. It just clipped the mountainside."
complete lack of comprehension of what PPL and no IR means..........

Frying Pan 6th Jun 2018 13:02


Originally Posted by EESDL (Post 10166380)
complete lack of comprehension of what PPL and no IR means..........

Er...irrelevant. If the aircraft clipped the mountainside then surely it was below it's safety height, regardless of the pilot's licence or qualifications? But perhaps that was your point?
FP.

[email protected] 6th Jun 2018 14:12

TC has it right - this wasn't bad luck but pressonitis - the weather was forecast to be poor between his points of departure and landing but he cracked on, over very hostile terrain and into poor weather.

It would have been so easy to go around rather than through Snowdonia or just turn round - but he knew better......................................

Cows getting bigger 6th Jun 2018 14:35

It was also sheer bad luck the he lifted out of J13 5-up and full fuel; that'll be 150kgs of bad luck. :rolleyes:

Most pilots who thump into hills in cloud aren't unlucky. This chap falls into the 'most' category.

OvertHawk 6th Jun 2018 15:00

I suppose if you are "Only a little bit below safety altitude" then you only get a little bit killed?

For a coroner to describe that as "bad luck" is bordering on misconduct IMHO!

One man's bad luck is another man's egregious negligence. :ugh:

SASless 6th Jun 2018 16:26

Bad Luck....errrr....perhaps not.

But...it is contagious amongst those who leave us early.

Smart Pilot - Flying the Alaska Highway...VFR?

B2N2 6th Jun 2018 17:42

I'm taking several things from the linked article:

"complex weather system" in the Snowdonia mountains

surprise party

he had consumed cocaine at some point prior to the crash
That shows an attitude problem.
Unfortunate is that successful business owners rarely make successful pilots, those business decision making skills do not transfer over or rarely do.
If he'd been alone it would have been a more understandable decision to press on. In the company and being responsible for unsuspecting passengers, family members even, that shows me that he was probably a habitual "rule" breaker.
Paid the price too.

Thomas coupling 6th Jun 2018 21:37

How many more will die in this way? What is it with people who display elements of wealth and/or power, that makes them think the rules don't apply to them?
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!

megan 7th Jun 2018 00:39


How many more will die in this way?
Lots


paco 7th Jun 2018 07:32

Fate is the hunter.....

OvertHawk 7th Jun 2018 08:51


Originally Posted by paco (Post 10167033)
Fate is the hunter.....

Indeed Paco... But it seems to me that often it does not need to hunt too hard - People just throw themselves out in front of it!

paco 7th Jun 2018 08:58

That's for sure. One reason why I refused to do private owners when I was a TRE.

OvertHawk 7th Jun 2018 10:02


Originally Posted by paco (Post 10167106)
That's for sure. One reason why I refused to do private owners when I was a TRE.

Must be a real worry for TREs (especially the freelancers who don't have the protection of being part of an in-houe training system) in this day and age of aggressive litigation and finger pointing.

I know of more than one TRE who has ended up being cross examined about a check he'd carried out months or years before at inquests and inquiries by an aggressive barrister determined to shift the blame anywhere other than his client.

paco 7th Jun 2018 10:20

Yes, especially for a freelance, but it wasn't so much that as not willing to be responsible for letting someone with an attitude problem loose....

The trouble is, they behave properly on the test, then revert to the attitude.

Bell_ringer 7th Jun 2018 10:53


Originally Posted by Thomas coupling (Post 10166750)
How many more will die in this way? What is it with people who display elements of wealth and/or power, that makes them think the rules don't apply to them?
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!

Let's remember that a great many successful people manage to fly quite safely, we just only hear about the occasional fool.
On balance there are far more lowly paid pilots that manage to remove themselves from the gene pool through acts of sheer stupidity than any risk-taking entrepreneur.

nigelh 7th Jun 2018 11:13

Ahh but that doesn’t satisfy the chippy nature of some of our professional pilots on this forum !!! The argument that rich people are spoilt and arrogant etc and this makes them dangerous pilots is flimsy .... I could say that the poor , working class pilots I have met and employed have a tendency to be a bit stupid ( lack of education) and are so humble that they will not question their bosses commands . Also their accents can be difficult to understand on the radio !!!!

[email protected] 7th Jun 2018 11:21

Yes, I'm afraid regional accents really shouldn't be allowed on the airwaves.....;)

SASless 7th Jun 2018 11:25


One reason why I refused to do private owners when I was a TRE.

I NEVER authorized, penned, or scribbled an Endorsement of any kind for any reason on any document or Logbook....relating to Autogyro's.

nigelh 7th Jun 2018 11:41

Quite right Crab Old Boy ....!!
Sas... very relieved to hear that .

Sir Niall Dementia 7th Jun 2018 12:35

F##k Me!

He was having a really unlucky day. A quick snort of white nose candy, take off over weight and fly into known crap weather, well outside the pilot's limits. The aircraft was a good one, full IFR and a pleasure to fly. At least she was when I managed her a good few years ago.

I'm not sure if this belongs in Rotorheads, It strikes me the Darwin Awards thread in Jet Blast would be more appropriate.

SND

nigelh 7th Jun 2018 13:36

Careful SND ...... there were traces which could be from way beforehand and not relevant to the flight .
However I would agree that it doesn’t look good .

Sir Niall Dementia 7th Jun 2018 14:38

nigelh,

Fair enough, but in this world of drugs and alcohol testing for working pilots a trace from any time can be enough to drop a pilot into a huge amount of poo from an enormous height.(I failed years ago for opiates, the traces disappeared when I dropped poppy seed rolls from my diet at the suggestion of the testers) In this case perhaps, more an indication of attitude to the task in hand and life in general.

SND

Bell_ringer 7th Jun 2018 15:15

These days it's not so much the trace amounts that get people into trouble.
It is the vast amounts of grog that a trollied Captain has consumed before reporting for duty - if British Airways is anything to go by. :}

OvertHawk 7th Jun 2018 17:19


Originally Posted by nigelh (Post 10167335)
Careful SND ...... there were traces which could be from way beforehand and not relevant to the flight .
However I would agree that it doesn’t look good .

I think that there is an argument that even if it was from before hand it is related to the flight.

It suggests that the individual had a "flexible" attitude to rules laid down by other people. Similarly the fact that he chose to take off significantly over the max weight of his helicopter is another such indication.

The earlier comments on this thread suggesting that there are owner pilots out there who a sensible and competent is certainly true. But there are also those who are not. I think that there are certain personality traits that allow people to become successful and wealthy that are not mutually compatible with being safe at the controls of a helicopter. The attitude to risk and rules for example and it applies to owners in general not just owner pilots.

I've seen one owner pushing his pilot to fly when it clearly was not safe or legal with the line "Do you think you'd even have a job at all if I had not taken a few risks and broken a few rules over the years to build my business?"

If people are successful enough to buy a helicopter it's because their risk taking and possibly rule breaking has paid off. This can instil a dangerous over confidence.

chopjock 7th Jun 2018 17:31


Similarly the fact that he chose to take off significantly over the max weight of his helicopter is another such indication.
What the difference between taking off at max weight and climbing out at max power, and taking off over weight and climbing out at max power? Surely the stresses will be the same on the airframe and gears etc? If you don't over torque / temp anything what's the issue?

paco 7th Jun 2018 17:48

The difference is whether the insurance is valid.....

Bell_ringer 7th Jun 2018 18:30


Originally Posted by OvertHawk (Post 10167521)
If people are successful enough to buy a helicopter it's because their risk taking and possibly rule breaking has paid off. This can instil a dangerous over confidence.

That is a bit of a generalization, arrogance is something present in a broad range of people.
There are many ways to become successful.
Business owners are very good at managing risk, purely taking risk isn't a good strategy for getting ahead.
There are many, many private owners. Very few end up in a smoking hole with trace amounts of speed in the blood.
It's not that simple trying to put a large and varied demographic into one neat little box.
Personality traits are a leading factor in fatal accidents, it is something that applies to everyone both with thick and thin wallets.

Sir Niall Dementia 7th Jun 2018 21:02


Originally Posted by chopjock (Post 10167526)
What the difference between taking off at max weight and climbing out at max power, and taking off over weight and climbing out at max power? Surely the stresses will be the same on the airframe and gears etc? If you don't over torque / temp anything what's the issue?

JESUS CHRIST! Another load of stupidity from chopcock! Please tell me you’re just taking the p###. An emergency overweight? The fact that the aircraft is designed around certain weights.

I flew about 600 hours on that particular airframe. One of those hours was on one engine. She was in fine fettle, but her performance was as limited as any 355F1 on one engine. Try it overweight and the one hour would have turned into a minute or so of regret before the landing site is forced on you.

I fired off at you on the IIMC thread about your idiotic pronouncements. Do me and rotary Aviation a favour, f#%# off and take up golf before someone thinks your stupidity is a great idea. I don’t know who taught you to fly, but I bet they’ll end up answering some stiff questions from AAIB and CAA during the preparation of your AAIB report.

SND

chopjock 7th Jun 2018 21:39

SND

The fact that the aircraft is designed around certain weights.
As you know, aircraft G forces change in flight, therefore aircraft weight changes in flight too (not mass). So to answer my earlier question "What's the difference between taking off at max weight and climbing out at max power, and taking off over weight and climbing out at max power?"
If you are climbing out at MCP you will be the same load/stress at what ever weight, right? Lighter = higher ROC, heavier = lower ROC. Too heavy = no ROC.

ersa 7th Jun 2018 21:52

Chop jock

Why do you think helicopter manufacturers have a max take off weight ?

chopjock 7th Jun 2018 22:26


Why do you think helicopter manufacturers have a max take off weight ?
Mostly structural limitations but also OEI and autorotation performance would be effected if too heavy. My comments were aimed at the structural limitations being the same whatever the weight if flying on MCP and no mechanical failures. So yes, point taken...

Ascend Charlie 8th Jun 2018 01:25

Make sure you never fly an aircraft after Chopjock has been in it.

Flying at max weight will cause brinelling in the rotor grip bearings, being overweight might just convince them to jam up completely. Engine and Xmsn chips will be more common, maybe not on Chopjock's flight (which is why he advocates it) but when some other poor bunny flies it later.

If you think the forces are the same whether overweight or not, try lifting an empty bucket with a rubber band, then fill it with water and try again. Goose.

Vertical Freedom 8th Jun 2018 04:08

No such thing as IIMC
 
Bad luck is when I spill my Beer whilst driving over speed humps :=

IIMC is a lie! Going IMC is a choice by the Pilot! If You, your machine & legal procedures (plates etc) cannot enter cloud then, as a VFR Pilot if You do it is a criminal act, which sadly in this case led to the murder of some innocent Souls. :yuk: nuff said

OvertHawk 8th Jun 2018 06:37

Many years ago I flew on a helicopter shuttle operation with an experienced and well liked pilot. We were flying the same type on multiple rotations in and out of a large event. His helicopter was slightly heavier than mine empty. we were both carrying max pax loads. I was at max all up weight on my machine. He was refuelling less frequently than me thus carrying more fuel. If I was at max all up then where was he? He was also flying faster than me. I was flying as max permitted power in the cruise and he was going past me on a more draggy machine.

He flew the machine that way for four days. The following week it ended up in a field with another poor sod at the sticks with the gearbox making more metal than British Alcan. Risked the life of the pilot and damn near bankrupted the owner of the machine with the cost of the gearbox.

This pilot subsequently killed himself and his pax in a CFIT. I was not surprised.

pilotmike 8th Jun 2018 06:39


Originally Posted by chopjock (Post 10167727)
SND

As you know, aircraft G forces change in flight, therefore aircraft weight changes in flight too (not mass). So to answer my earlier question "What's the difference between taking off at max weight and climbing out at max power, and taking off over weight and climbing out at max power?"
If you are climbing out at MCP you will be the same load/stress at what ever weight, right? Lighter = higher ROC, heavier = lower ROC. Too heavy = no ROC.


WRONG! WTF? The head / rotor has to produce a force equal to the weight of what's hanging beneath it. So overweight = overstress on the design limits of the head / rotor. A bit like if you were hanging by your arms on monkey bars and some fat f$&ker grabs hold of your ankles for the ride. Are you seriously telling us your arms, wrists and grip wouldn't feel any difference?

Are you honestly a helicopter pilot??!!! SND summed up the best advice on where to go and the best manner in which to do it a few posts previously. You clearly don't understand even the very basics.

chopjock 8th Jun 2018 08:59

pilotmike

WRONG! WTF? The head / rotor has to produce a force equal to the weight of what's hanging beneath it.

A bit like if you were hanging by your arms on monkey bars and some fat f$&ker grabs hold of your ankles for the ride. Are you seriously telling us your arms, wrists and grip wouldn't feel any difference?
In your analogy, If the monkey bars were accelerating upwards, faster if you are light but slower if you are heavy, then yes, I would feel NO difference because the stress is measured by the torque meter / tot gauge fitted to the bars. Ever gone up in a lift and felt heavier?
This limiting factor (controlled by the pilot) means a slower ROC when heavier, thus up to the SAME measured stress!

Ascend

If you think the forces are the same whether overweight or not, try lifting an empty bucket with a rubber band, then fill it with water and try again. Goose.
Yes the rubber band will stretch if my hand remains static. It will also stretch when you accelerate the hand holding the rubber band with empty bucket upwards!

OvertHawk

He flew the machine that way for four days.
Obviously over temping / torquing and thus overloading the gearbox. Presumably had the other machine flown within the torqe / tot limitations then a slower / lower performance flight would have occurred without overloading the gearbox.


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