Hill Helicopters HX50
Joined: Jul 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL(H)
Posts: 508
Likes: 31
From: UK
For those interested in progress, the latest update and Q&A session went live on YouTube yesterday. Impressive stuff! Circa £700,000,000 in 1400 confirmed orders worldwide. I make that around £70,000,000 taken in non-refundable deposits. That’s an awful lot of R&D budget.
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 603
Likes: 65
From: South of UK
The deposit count isn't going up now, despite many £££ being thrown at marketing.
So the question is...is £70m (or whatever it really is) enough to get to first flight?
Joined: Jun 2016
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 387
From: Brantisvogan
It’s difficult to know for sure as their filings are always behind by more than a year.
the last ones showed £23M in the bank and an accelerated burn rate of around £8M pa.
The next filing is scheduled for July which will provide a better comparison.
the last ones showed £23M in the bank and an accelerated burn rate of around £8M pa.
The next filing is scheduled for July which will provide a better comparison.
Joined: Jun 2016
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 387
From: Brantisvogan
The current cash has to get Hill way past any definition of flight, it has to last through to final testing, as well as building his manufacturing facility, hiring staff, ramping production etc.
Basically, it has to fund his ability to charge, in volume, for the second payment when a client's machine enters the build process, that is a much longer road than getting it airborne for the first time.
Basically, it has to fund his ability to charge, in volume, for the second payment when a client's machine enters the build process, that is a much longer road than getting it airborne for the first time.
Joined: Jun 2016
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 387
From: Brantisvogan
Presumably demand follows the traditional adoption cycle bell curve, so deposit growth will tail out, most costs will need to be covered by the balance of payments owed.
Demand for Robbies is around 300 per year and to achieve that they have 1100 staff. I doubt sustained demand for Hills will be much beyond that, once the backlog is cleared, the industry needs what it needs and he isn't consumerising rotorcraft.
It requires a significant investment to build an operation like Robinson, and they don't even do the level of manufacturing that Hill is aspiring to.
Demand for Robbies is around 300 per year and to achieve that they have 1100 staff. I doubt sustained demand for Hills will be much beyond that, once the backlog is cleared, the industry needs what it needs and he isn't consumerising rotorcraft.
It requires a significant investment to build an operation like Robinson, and they don't even do the level of manufacturing that Hill is aspiring to.
Joined: Jun 2016
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 387
From: Brantisvogan
Considering Robbie stats say that about 300 aircraft reach limits annually, why they would produce more than 3X above demand seems like factually incorrect spin.
Much of the content they aren't making from scratch, the much debated ball-bearing comes to mind.
Much of the content they aren't making from scratch, the much debated ball-bearing comes to mind.
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 446
Likes: 100
From: South East Asia
if you say "on time" its hardly an achiement of anything, except for blue-skying you into believing everything is fine.
I know he is trying to give a comforting high level view, but my clients would not let me go-by with that representation on my complex R&D projects.
There is a high likelyhood that some thing will not work and will be put on the back burner, especially with a compressed schedule like that, because we have to get to first flight, because we need the money.
As new items get folded into the "test" category, I would also like to see old items filed and design frozen. otherwise 1st flight will be a mile away from 1st production.
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 240
Likes: 50
From: San Diego, CA
They're very different helicopters so the R88 doesn't really compete with the H*50, but it uses already-certified avionics and an already-certified engine, and is made by a very large established company, so I have no doubt the R88's expected certification in 2029 will be long before the HC50 ever gets certified, if it even happens at all.
Guest
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 67
Likes: 7
From: scotland
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 603
Likes: 65
From: South of UK
Latest unaudited accounts have been filed: not last minute this year, which in fairness is nice to see. The figures below are all for Hill Helicopters Ltd, I haven't the patience to have a look at all the other Group companies, although there is a marked increase in 'amounts owed to Group undertakings' (now £2.5m) which there may be something worth looking into if you are so inclined.
https://find-and-update.company-info...filing-history
Cash available seems to be remaining steady at c£17m as at July 2024. Order take is interesting: total of 1276 (not quite 1300+ but we're not splitting hairs). 397 orders added in 2023/24, but only 88 from July 24- Dec 24, so the rate of sign ups is slowing. The equivalent in the year prior was 246.
Cash burn rate is increasing: £5m in 2022/23 to £10.2m in 23/24. If we assume that as of end of March they now have an additional 140 orders since end of last financial year (=c£6.2m extra cash), and the cash burn rate has increased by another 25% (so they'd have spent £8.3m ytd), cash available has dropped by £2m since end of last financial year.
Given the new factory, the burn rate may have increase substantially, but we don't know that.
So we're entering an interesting phase, which is not surprising. Cash demand in increasing, rate of acquisition of extra funding is slowing and there's not heaps more than 12 months of cash available. So Hill need to get the thing flying to generate more orders (although how long will you have to wait for your aircraft??) and to get some orders completed to get cash from early adopters - before the cash gets tight This assumes of course that Hill chooses to retain the current financial model.
https://find-and-update.company-info...filing-history
Cash available seems to be remaining steady at c£17m as at July 2024. Order take is interesting: total of 1276 (not quite 1300+ but we're not splitting hairs). 397 orders added in 2023/24, but only 88 from July 24- Dec 24, so the rate of sign ups is slowing. The equivalent in the year prior was 246.
Cash burn rate is increasing: £5m in 2022/23 to £10.2m in 23/24. If we assume that as of end of March they now have an additional 140 orders since end of last financial year (=c£6.2m extra cash), and the cash burn rate has increased by another 25% (so they'd have spent £8.3m ytd), cash available has dropped by £2m since end of last financial year.
Given the new factory, the burn rate may have increase substantially, but we don't know that.
So we're entering an interesting phase, which is not surprising. Cash demand in increasing, rate of acquisition of extra funding is slowing and there's not heaps more than 12 months of cash available. So Hill need to get the thing flying to generate more orders (although how long will you have to wait for your aircraft??) and to get some orders completed to get cash from early adopters - before the cash gets tight This assumes of course that Hill chooses to retain the current financial model.