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BRS stock crashing

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BRS stock crashing

Old 20th Feb 2019, 13:29
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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SAS

As they are not flying....and the purchase payments are probably still on-going, though possibly offset somewhat by claims against Airbus (if ever paid by Airbus)....it still must be a massive hit cost wise.
No more of a hit than if some 225s were flying and some 92s were idle and still being paid for. All operators have still got spare capacity, there are 92s for sale relatively cheap, <$10m in a variety of colours and that's before negotiation.

212

Yes - I was going to say the same. I can't imagine what they are worth now - less than 20%?
ERA managed about 15 cents on the $ from Airbus.

Same

Bristow bashers should also consider that apart from the 225 grounding there was also shortly afterwards a huge drop in oil prices and a subsequent loss of contracts and therefore redundancies.
The oil price had already halved between June 2014 and Jan 2015, at least 12 months before the 225 crash and subsequent grounding
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 14:21
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 212man View Post
Yes - I was going to say the same. I can't imagine what they are worth now - less than 20%?

Mitchaa - surely they must be the 19th Feb figures? It's the 20th today and the NYSE hasn't closed at 13:00 GMT.
Yep, my mistake, getting a day ahead of myself. Edited now, thanks
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 14:21
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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I can't be bothered to check dates but regardless of the chronology all three ingredients combined within a few short years to assist with the present situation. SASless - sadly the 'good old days' of which you, quite rightly, have fond memories (me too) are sadly long gone. Back in those halcyon days the 'Ryanair' helicopter operators were non-existent or cetainly not capable of winning large contracts. These days they are, and do, with the subsequent cost cutting, reduction in standards and race to the bottom. In my experience having worked for Bristow, regardless of their other faults, they have always tried to maintain high standards in respect to pilot and engineering training and performance. My experience with the 'Ryanair' operators is very different.
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 14:41
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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The acquisition of 20 aircraft whether leased or financed is not as burdensome as you may think to a company like Bristow. Heavily discounted prices and generous payment terms are available to big fleet customers.

I agree it used to be a great company. I worked for the old Bristow from 1980 until about the time OLOG bought it. I am fortunate to have been there during the best years.
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 15:25
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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How the smallest operator is surviving in Aberdeen beats me.

Last edited by Mitchaa; 20th Feb 2019 at 15:52.
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 16:34
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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Mind you, itís not exactly all sweetness and light down the road in Lafayette!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...otes-27848357/

this is going to really hurt.....
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 17:11
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Unhappy

Sounds like it's going to be a race to see who collapses first: PHI or BRS.

Not to hijack the thread, but with the 500M+ bond maturity for PHI coming due in March, is there any hope they'll make it through a chapter 11? I was reading the company has only 1B in assets possible to sell, no idea where that valuation comes from.

Between the two, things look dark. Maybe the O&G giants will wake up and decide they'd rather *not* put all their suppliers out of business. Maybe I'll find a briefcase of money tomorrow.



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Old 20th Feb 2019, 21:44
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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I am thinking that investing in Crew Boat Company Stock might be a wise move short term!

I could always move to Fourchon and become a Deck Hand when Bristow (Air Log) and PHI go Tits Up in the GOM.
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 22:52
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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SASless - make sure it's not the Crew Boat Company recommended by Chris Grayling ....
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Old 21st Feb 2019, 15:56
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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BRS was $1.54 a few minutes ago....down 6.67% today.

PHI INC/SH is $3.51....down 5.9%.

The Links are for 12:27 PM EST graphs




https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=BRS,+Stock+Quote&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8


https://www.google.com/search?client...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Last edited by SASless; 21st Feb 2019 at 17:56.
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Old 21st Feb 2019, 16:11
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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BRS in it's final death throes. Any move up is on thin volume and people punting.
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Old 21st Feb 2019, 16:16
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Fairly damning letter from yesterday on helihub from an activist investor who is very long PHI. Can't post links yet or I would. Things don't sound good, although the investor solution seems to be "SELL THE AM WING!" But if I'm another operator, why should I spend $400 M on a bunch of helicopters and contracts now when I could wait for bankruptcy and buy them for a fraction of the price? And what operator has $400M lying around that would be interested?

Plus, with Waypoint filing, BRS possibly going to file, and PHI looking grim, why would anyone not already invested in helicopter services want to step into the market? It would be bizarre.
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Old 21st Feb 2019, 22:39
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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BRS down 14.55% today......$1.41 at the close of trade.

PHI only down 2.95%.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 00:21
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dirtnap View Post
Fairly damning letter from yesterday on helihub from an activist investor who is very long PHI.
Different dynamic between PHI and BRS.

First, the PHI "activist investor" is only long about 11% in non-voting PHI stock compared to the 75+% of voting PHI stock the sole owner of the company has. He's hardly an issue and has no standing in the big picture. Second, this "investor" has been called out in the past in other posts and PHI public statements. So again, hardly an issue. Funny, he usually brings up the same problems you do?

Had PHI not gone the HNZ path it would have been interesting to see where they would stack right now. They're only now looking at heavy reductions that others had already done 2 years ago. The contracts they have are solid for the next couple years and they do have the EMS nickel that helps balance a few things out. However, I think the EMS market is about to go through their own "rebirth" in the next year or two.

As for BRS, there are a few underlying issues. This isn't the 1st time the books were off in recent times and required adjustment. But I don't think there will be any corruption charges floated this time. The industry changed but I think in the end, the 225 debacle will prove to have more cause in the industry recovery than previously thought. Just look at Milestone, CHC, and others.

In all my years in the business with the huge ups/downs, I've never seen the bottom completely fall out as this. I think Sasless is right in that the old business model of flying old, paid-for airframes kept that bottom in place. It will be interesting how things work out as I sit and watch from a far. I wish the best for all concerned but I'm just as glad I retired 5 years ago.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 02:55
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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I still think the problems are capacity driven, leasing companies in the 2005-2012 period made it easy and attractive to lease new aircraft on a no money down fly away basis. While the leases were upfront cheap to get into, like all leases they were for 10 years with no mid term variation. No one foresaw the oil price falling to $30 in the middle of the lease terms. All of a sudden, the leases looked expensive. Falling contract prices with high costs lease price meant losses for the operators.

There would have been huge spare capacity regardless of the 225 issue. Same with rigs and vessels. Arguably, the 225 issue helped by taking immediate capacity out of the still slightly flooded market. There are still 30 unemployed S-92s available today looking for work.

There is a big difference between PHI and BRS. PHI owns most of its aircraft, BRS no longer does. PHI has not sold and leased back aircraft to generate cash, which in the BRS case seems to be to burn it in operating losses. Mr. Gonsoulin is a shrewd operator and he doesn't talk PHI's business openly. You would have to be in the inner sanctum of the inner sanctum to know the plan.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 07:16
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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The commercials of aviation have forever been odd. You have huge costs of capital, huge ongoing costs in terms of training, maintenance and the fulfilment of regulation but despite all of that as has been already highlighted there are those that are happy to give customers the effective free option. Whereby the investor takes all that long term risk to provide the customer with a low cost service the business case for which is only valid with high utilisation. It would seem that can be made to work with airlines operating for the masses. It seems it is at best marginal in the environment Bristow operate.

The 225 issues are interesting because anecdotally it does seem that beyond the physical availability of the aircraft how do you quantify the huge damage done to reputation and perception of risk? After all of the UK based 225 and derivatives issues when the rotor departs company in Norway I'm not sure talk of increasing investment in that area would be entirely welcome. The time frame and procedures (including information flow) that are common to such investigations maybe understood and accepted for those simply interested in the aviation element but it will be unbelievable to the person investing or put another way the person allowing the entire endeavour to exist.

If the drag on the business from the 225 is at all material to the Bristow group then I would find it impossible to believe that information upon the causal effect on failures that have blighted the type since when 2009? have been disclosed fully or been made available to investors. Whilst aviators may often take a purist view and be entirely comfortable to "wait for final report" I do not think it is a huge leap of imagination that delays (or perhaps the timely release of) could well be due to pressure / objections around language that prevents (or reduces) the possibility of legal action due to any misdirection.


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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 11:45
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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Bristow and PHI are two very different companies....in many aspects that are quite important.

PHI primarily operates in the Gulf of Mexico while Bristow primarily operates outside the Gulf of Mexico.

Bristow is primarily a "large helicopter" operator and PHI operates a more mixed fleet with a majority of them being smaller aircraft.

Bristow is generally a two Crew operation vice PHI's single pilot crew due to the numbers of small aircraft.

PHI must be a much simpler operation to control as compared to Bristow.

As to leasing.....when you own the Leasing Company you obtain your leased aircraft from.....you still own the aircraft and the aircraft costs.

The 225 situation is not what did in Bristow.....but it certainly played a role in creating financial losses.

Not controlling costs is what did in the Company....and not having a contingency plan for a market downturn that would sustain the company during that down turn.

This not foreseeing a 30 Dollar Barrel thing.....there have been downturns in the oil business quiet often.

Forgetting that happens is the major failure.



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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 12:24
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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SASless.
You can probably remember the Klondike days on the North Sea in the early nineties when the Brent went down from $32 to $18.

The signs on the walls of the bars.

'Please God, bring up the price of oil. We promise not to piss it against the wall next time.'
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 13:57
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Then there was the 8 Dollars per Barrel days that nearly bankrupted the Saudi Royal Family.

In Alaska at the end of the Pipeline Construction....we saw the very same kinds of signs everywhere....car dealers, apartment complexes, real estate brokerages, aircraft operators, trucking companies......even the Bawdy Houses and Street Walkers felt the impact!


Chart showing Oil Prices since the 1950's.....lots of ups and downs....with HUGE swings!

I found the Ten Year Chart informative......and of more pertinent than the initial 1950's chart.


https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/cru...-history-chart
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 03:44
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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I'm assuming Bristow are the major share holder in AirNorth (Or at least they were)? If this is the case, what will happen to AirNorth if Bristow goes belly up ? AirNorth is bleeding money, canceling flights left, right and centre as well as many flights delayed due staff shortages.
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