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Bristow stock is not doing too well either

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Bristow stock is not doing too well either

Old 12th Feb 2016, 09:51
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Bristow stock is not doing too well either

Down 50% in a week and now around 11$.
Is this all due to the shaky stock market in general combined with the oil price, or what are the causes for it to drop like this?
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Old 12th Feb 2016, 10:05
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9+% dividend yield, might be a good buy. Certainly much better return than the cash deposit rate.
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Old 12th Feb 2016, 12:22
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I was tempted to buy at 20. Even more so now
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Old 12th Feb 2016, 18:15
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Bristow better be careful and not let it drop to much more or CHC will swoop in and buy them.
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Old 12th Feb 2016, 18:34
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I have been wondering why Bristow has not purchased parts of CHC yet in areas where they are not well established till now, but this situation may have turned the cards indeed. Purchasing the majority of Bristow stock by First Reserve would allow them to turn their unprofitable helicopter activities into the worlds biggest operator. It would be a fight forward out of their troublesome situation with CHC. They have the money to do it...
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Old 12th Feb 2016, 20:06
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Heard from a few people that Bristow was very close to buying off CHC Global a few years back. Long story short, CHC got greedy at the close and upped the price, and Bristow walked away from the deal.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 04:56
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Originally Posted by Chris Pochari View Post
When the price of crude drops below marginal production cost, (which varies between $65-75 per barrel for offshore) oil companies will shut down rigs, (it's called the utilization rate). When they shut down the rigs it reduces the demand for transport services.
It's that simple.
And your point is?????
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 08:15
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Chris Pochari

There is huge lack of detail and analysis in your post.

Rigs are for Drilling. Drilling is normally exploration or development drilling. Some companies actually utilise the lower day rates to increase their drilling "rig" activity.

Not all MODUs can be turned off as many are on longer term contract. I can assure you, making decisions about production, exploration, rig utilisation etc. its not "that simple".

Many lifting costs are quite a bit below the figures you suggest which is why production continues. But when it gets close, oil companies look for savings, often from contractors which hurts everyone including helicopter companies and their share price.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 10:30
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BRS stock price going down since start of 2015

Bristow stock price for the last 5 years, with the start of 2015 as a downward trend. Unsure why?

IMG_20170701_191954 (002).jpg

PS - I can't seem to paste the picture bigger. maybe someone knows how to do this - clicking on it will enlarge

Last edited by Kulwin Park; 1st Jul 2017 at 10:32. Reason: Trying to increase picture size
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 11:17
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Originally Posted by terminus mos View Post
Chris Pochari

There is huge lack of detail and analysis in your post.

Rigs are for Drilling. Drilling is normally exploration or development drilling. Some companies actually utilise the lower day rates to increase their drilling "rig" activity.

Not all MODUs can be turned off as many are on longer term contract. I can assure you, making decisions about production, exploration, rig utilisation etc. its not "that simple".

Many lifting costs are quite a bit below the figures you suggest which is why production continues. But when it gets close, oil companies look for savings, often from contractors which hurts everyone including helicopter companies and their share price.
https://ibb.co/b535q5 Yes it is "that simple" it's not theoretical physics, if an oil company spends $70 per barrel extracting oil but the market rate is $40 it aint gonna work. A macro economics course will explain that. Offshore rig utilization is at all time low,
https://ibb.co/iAXn3Q Oil exploration and discover is also at an all time low, when the price is low companies will not commit the capital for new projects.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 11:33
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If you look at PHI's stock it basically correlates with the price of oil, confirming my opinion.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 12:08
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Originally Posted by Chris Pochari View Post
https://ibb.co/b535q5 Yes it is "that simple" it's not theoretical physics, if an oil company spends $70 per barrel extracting oil but the market rate is $40 it aint gonna work. A macro economics course will explain that. Offshore rig utilization is at all time low,
https://ibb.co/iAXn3Q Oil exploration and discover is also at an all time low, when the price is low companies will not commit the capital for new projects.
Love it - the 17 year old telling the senior manager of an oil and gas company, who has been in the business in various roles for more than twice as long as you have been on earth, how his business works! Go for it.....

As was explained, the 'rigs' you are referencing are used for exploration and have nothing to do with production. However, when they are used to explore new fields the success rates are eye wateringly low and so any exploration campaign represents a huge financial gamble. Even when successful the time to production is measured in years and, for very extreme parts of the world, even decades. Take Prelude as an example.

Cutting exploration during a low oil price environment is a quick and easy way to cut overall costs, but it cannot be sustained as reserves have to be replenished at some point. In fact, as was pointed out, the low rig costs actually present an opportunity to go exploring basins that previously were considered too expensive and I know, for a fact, that some companies are discussing basins that 18 months ago would have been dismissed out of hand.

The other side of the coin is that for large integrated energy companies, this low price environment means a boost to their downstream businesses as the cost of their raw product is proportionately lower than any reductions in the price of the products they sell. In many cases this side of the business is 'propping up' the company in this period.

So, no, as TM said; "it's not that simple"!

Last edited by 212man; 1st Jul 2017 at 12:46.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 12:58
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If you look at PHI's stock it basically correlates with the price of oil, confirming my opinion.
PHI is not a typical example. It may be publicly traded but its privately controlled.

I am surprised that a helicopter company or oil and gas company hasn't already offered you a fast track career, you would be quite a catch with your deep industry insight and abilities with Google.

Bristow has just announced the removal of a whole layer of VP level senior management, perhaps there is an opening for you to help turn around their share price? Don't set your salary expectations too low, people with your industry experience and smarts are rare.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 19:05
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Originally Posted by terminus mos View Post
PHI is not a typical example. It may be publicly traded but its privately controlled.

I am surprised that a helicopter company or oil and gas company hasn't already offered you a fast track career, you would be quite a catch with your deep industry insight and abilities with Google.

Bristow has just announced the removal of a whole layer of VP level senior management, perhaps there is an opening for you to help turn around their share price? Don't set your salary expectations too low, people with your industry experience and smarts are rare.
You guys are so insecure. How does it bother you that a person who has born later than you takes an interest in the offshore helicopter industry? would you rather I don't?
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 19:12
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why are you guys so concerned with my age?, I'm not telling you what to do regarding your oil company.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 19:20
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Originally Posted by 212man View Post
Love it - the 17 year old telling the senior manager of an oil and gas company, who has been in the business in various roles for more than twice as long as you have been on earth, how his business works! Go for it.....

As was explained, the 'rigs' you are referencing are used for exploration and have nothing to do with production. However, when they are used to explore new fields the success rates are eye wateringly low and so any exploration campaign represents a huge financial gamble. Even when successful the time to production is measured in years and, for very extreme parts of the world, even decades. Take Prelude as an example.

Cutting exploration during a low oil price environment is a quick and easy way to cut overall costs, but it cannot be sustained as reserves have to be replenished at some point. In fact, as was pointed out, the low rig costs actually present an opportunity to go exploring basins that previously were considered too expensive and I know, for a fact, that some companies are discussing basins that 18 months ago would have been dismissed out of hand.

The other side of the coin is that for large integrated energy companies, this low price environment means a boost to their downstream businesses as the cost of their raw product is proportionately lower than any reductions in the price of the products they sell. In many cases this side of the business is 'propping up' the company in this period.

So, no, as TM said; "it's not that simple"!
So I just went to control panel and clicked don't show my age now there won't be a problem. I get the feeling your teen years may have been interesting.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 19:45
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Chris,

Don't know what 212man's teen years were like but I've known him for the last 20 years. He has a lot of experience in the oil and gas world both as a pilot / instructor / examiner and in various management roles.
I hope if you choose a career in the helicopter world you might be able to achieve part of what he has achieved and you will have a great career!

At 17 I spend most of my time listening to others trying to learn as much as I could so I would be able to fly helicopters for a living one day. Maybe you should take a leaf out of my book rather than continuing on your current track and possibly upsetting people in the small world that professional helicopter flying is.

Cheers,

Finalchecksplease
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 20:21
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Originally Posted by finalchecksplease View Post
Chris,

Don't know what 212man's teen years were like but I've known him for the last 20 years. He has a lot of experience in the oil and gas world both as a pilot / instructor / examiner and in various management roles.
I hope if you choose a career in the helicopter world you might be able to achieve part of what he has achieved and you will have a great career!

At 17 I spend most of my time listening to others trying to learn as much as I could so I would be able to fly helicopters for a living one day. Maybe you should take a leaf out of my book rather than continuing on your current track and possibly upsetting people in the small world that professional helicopter flying is.

Cheers,

Finalchecksplease
If by saying that low oil prices depress the offshore helicopter business is upsetting people than I can't help you there.
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Old 1st Jul 2017, 22:34
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Chris,

212man and finalchecksplease have been in this game for a very long time and know a lot. I've known them for 27 and 20 years respectively.

Of all the items people put on their CVs, be it as pilots, engineers, VPs, Managers or whatever, the one thing that can't be learnt in a classroom or bought is experience.

For what it's worth my advice would be to simply accept that they know what they're talking about. Just my two penneth.

Cheers,

NEO
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Old 2nd Jul 2017, 00:15
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Originally Posted by Chris Pochari View Post
So I just went to control panel and clicked don't show my age now there won't be a problem. I get the feeling your teen years may have been interesting.
Cool, good for you. BTW they were, as were my pre-teen and post-teen years. Good luck with your O&G gas career and I (we I guess) look forward to learning from your wisdom. Out of interest, did you actually register that some of the posters are employed by O&G majors?
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