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What's happening in CHC?

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What's happening in CHC?

Old 22nd Oct 2015, 09:31
  #241 (permalink)  
 
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....But they haven't told shareholders and it will affect their business....that's why H/Data suggests their lawyers are apparently fighting the TC recommendation.Wonder if The new Canadian government will intervene.Otherwise it looks like a name change to Cayman Helicopter Corporation!
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Old 22nd Oct 2015, 10:03
  #242 (permalink)  
 
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I doubt it will be just the canadian AOC moving in the next 12 months. The world of aviation is changing fast. New rules will make this a lot easier, also in EASA land. Ultimately it will make the business cheaper to run, most likely at the expense of manpower, pay, taxes, working conditions. Ryanair tried and tested this model. Norwegian followed. Now the helicopter industry is about to jump on board. It wont just be CHC.
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Old 22nd Oct 2015, 12:05
  #243 (permalink)  
 
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Heli1, please explain how the change from TC to CAACI will affect CHC's business?

As Outwest rightly points out, CHC has known of the demise of the Canadian AOC since, well, it stopped being a Canadian company with the FR takeover.
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Old 22nd Oct 2015, 12:27
  #244 (permalink)  
 
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I am still trying to absorb ScotiaQ's notion that if the market turns downwards you can just return any leased aircraft you don't want anymore. Great idea, completely naive, but quaint..... shall I tell MAG/Waypoint et al of your decision or will you?
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Old 22nd Oct 2015, 13:48
  #245 (permalink)  
 
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Worth remembering that end of lease triggers a whole load of charges.
These, depending on where the aircraft is in it's life cycle, could include engine, transmission, undercariage replacements, other component changes, various inspections and modifications possibly even a major check. Usually includes a full respray.

Not cheap especially when you throw in all the labour
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Old 23rd Oct 2015, 11:30
  #246 (permalink)  
 
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I heard this week that one of CHC's clients in Oz will be having a big reduction in activity which may lead to aircraft coming off contract, including a 225 and a 92. That will be 2 more aircraft on the market to add to the Bond 225 and 92s already looking for work.
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Old 23rd Oct 2015, 11:44
  #247 (permalink)  
 
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Where exactly are CHC running a 92 in Oz and for whom?
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Old 23rd Oct 2015, 11:58
  #248 (permalink)  
 
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ET

CHC has 2 92s in Australia, LOH and LYX. At least 1 of them was / is working for Shell in Broome. The "word" is that Shell will have a slowdown in activity in early 2016.
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Old 23rd Oct 2015, 12:01
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TenTon, you did well with your first 2 lines.

I'd be very interested to know where you think you got your 3rd line info from.
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Old 25th Oct 2015, 21:53
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CHC/BHS in Brazil

Era announced last week that Petrobras wasn't going to move forward with contracts it had previously awarded to Aeroleo/Era for EC225s and AW139s

I wonder if Petrobras has also terminated other pending offshore helicopter contracts with CHC/BHS, Bristow/Lider and Omni?

To date, only Era/Aeroleo has provided any legal disclosure ...
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Old 26th Oct 2015, 16:35
  #251 (permalink)  
 
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TenTon, you did well with your first 2 lines.

I'd be very interested to know where you think you got your 3rd line info from.
Why do you think the 3rd line is inaccurate? I think he is referring to EG....
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Old 26th Oct 2015, 23:58
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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CHC Fleet Registered in Canada

CHC Global Operations Canada (2008) ULC has 23 helicopters as of Oct 26 on the Canadian civil aircraft register (13 S-76C, 2 S-76A, 3 AW139, 3 AS365N2, 2 AS332L) and another five helicopters are registered to CHC Helicopters Canada Inc. (four S-92s and one AS332L), a Canadian company in which CHC has a equity stake.
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 01:21
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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and they have until 23rd january to either get the share price above $1, or they face delisting proceedings being started by NYSE.
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 04:52
  #254 (permalink)  
 
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47B-3

if you are getting that from TC's website that is always years out of date. I think I'm still listed as the registered owner of an airplane that I sold 30 years ago......

I'm pretty sure that other than some a/c that are in storage the only ones GO has FLYING under CDN reg are in EG.......standby to be corrected.

CHC Helicopters Canada is whole different story.

and they have until 23rd january to either get the share price above $1, or they face delisting proceedings being started by NYSE
The last I heard they were planning a reverse split, so theoretically doubling the current price, so that gets them to about .88 cents
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 06:37
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A reverse split can be any chosen ratio, so a 10:1 would get them to $4.40

.......at least temporarily. Seems like the market often has a pretty poor view of such actions, they're not surprisingly viewed as a running out of options gambit, and the stock can easily tumble to below $1 again.
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 07:22
  #256 (permalink)  
 
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CHC Group LTD. has filed the following public document - 20151026

CHC Group LTD.
http://ir.chc.ca/Cache/31596082.pdf?...082&O=3&OSID=9
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 07:41
  #257 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting, well found sir.

Obviously someone has decided that the amount in my simple example above wouldn't quite provide enough of a buffer.

But haven't we been here before? CHC shares, initially worth something in the teens, falling to the eventual price of less than a dollar.
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 12:26
  #258 (permalink)  
 
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On the stock reverse split, Citigroup and American Airlines did it after nearly being bankrupt. Apple did it recently as the world's richest company (by cash reserves). It is of course not a positive thing to have to do it in the first place but plenty of firms have done it and gone on to be fine, albeit that only 1 of my examples (AA) had to do it because of the $1 rule from memory (it was quite some time ago and I can't be bothered to google it).

One thing to bear in mind is, as previously stated, the crude valuation metric for business is the number of shares on issue x current share price. CHC is a volatile stock for 3 reasons:
1. It isn't doing so well financially as has been discussed at length here, partly because it is tied to the oil price which is also very volatile at the moment.
2. There is very little point in any firm buying in as your voice as a shareholder will not be heard as the firm is in effect private with CD&R and FR proxies owning most of the stock.
3. There are not many shares which come up for trading on a daily basis which leads to mini 'block trades' rather than a highly liquid and therefore smoother change in the price. This is not uncommon in smaller stocks, and by NYSE standards, CHC is a little company.

If you significantly reduce the number of shares in circulation and maintain all other assumptions, the price will retain large volatility, it's just that the absolute value of the stock should remain higher. Don;t be surprised to see the 7-10% daily fluctuations we have seen regularly over the last months both up and down.

I'd personally be surprised if the stock went back to being $1 again after this process is finished; that would value the business at about $40m which is crazy even if you do assume that the value of the stock is derived from present value of future earnings flavored with market based sentiment.

My 10c worth anyway.

Last edited by nowherespecial; 27th Oct 2015 at 15:34. Reason: Glaring omission
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 15:38
  #259 (permalink)  
 
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Whats the old adage?

....the quickest way to make a million bucks in aviation is to start with a hundred million......
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Old 27th Oct 2015, 15:41
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Depends on your appetite for risk HM. Quite possible to make a nice profit if you're lucky timing wise but the key is not to buy and sell so much stock that it changes the market price. Sadly for most of us we don't have that much money or we wouldn't spend all day on these forums.

With the overall lack of CHC volumes in the market, my guess is that the majority of trading takes place using market making liquidity computer algorithms (read Flash Boys by Michael Lewis for more*) and no one is really buying it, there is a standard float of shares in a dark pool somewhere, prob at GS. If you put too much demand into an illiquid stock you get ripped off royally.

(*I genuinely recommend that book for anyone who wants to know more about how the markets work.)
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