What's happening in CHC?
Wow, you guys are so obsessed with the stock price.
Let me ask 2 questions of you:
1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
Let me ask 2 questions of you:
1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
And can we please dispel the notion that value is remotely connected with being a listed stock on the Big Board.
Read through this and revert if you find the rule which would de-list CHC on value grounds.
NYSE Listed Company Manual
NWS.
Read through this and revert if you find the rule which would de-list CHC on value grounds.
NYSE Listed Company Manual
NWS.
Wow, you guys are so obsessed with the stock price.
Let me ask 2 questions of you:
1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
Let me ask 2 questions of you:
1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
Your view of a buyer for every seller, giving you some comfort that someone sees value in the name, fails to recognise the direction the stock is going... I.e down. I.e the buyers are buying lower and at a higher price there will obviously be more sellers..
CHC are fukked and clearly there are on going sellers of the stock, the management have provided no guidance in the recent past nor seem to be doing so now, neither are they buying the stock, nobody is bidding for the thing out right and if your valuation is now simply based upon a "sum of the parts" I.e they own X old helicopters worth Y. That is hardly a great endorsement for the business.
You have not the first idea why you or anyone else would buy CHC other than it is cheaper today than yesterday... Sadly for you that trend continues.
Regarding those living and breathing the company day to day in the real world is be asking some big questions around a plan for the future and the reality of CHC ability to fund itself. Frankly if I worked there and had other options I'd take them.
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Pitts. It is you who is not living in the real world. In the real world the boys and girls at CHC get up each day and provide a considerable service to their clients earning good revenue in the process. In the real world, real people do real work every day, without fail, come rain or shine.
In the shameful, diseased, broken and frankly dishonest world of stocks and shares good Companies are destroyed by greed, gossip and that ridiculous thing called "confidence" brought about mainly by dorks like you spouting shite!
I have many colleagues, some freinds and a few enemies in CHC, all whom collectively deserve more credit and support than the rubbish posted on this thread.
Share trading, stocks, banks andthe collective financial industry have proved beyond doubt that they are no freinds of true business. People have lost jobs, houses, livelihoods and even their lives due to the garbage and misrepresentation spread by people like you Pitts.
I work every day in this industry. Everywhere I go I see CHC people and aircraft working hard, looking good and making bacon.
Give it a rest with your doomsaying rhetoric.
In the shameful, diseased, broken and frankly dishonest world of stocks and shares good Companies are destroyed by greed, gossip and that ridiculous thing called "confidence" brought about mainly by dorks like you spouting shite!
I have many colleagues, some freinds and a few enemies in CHC, all whom collectively deserve more credit and support than the rubbish posted on this thread.
Share trading, stocks, banks andthe collective financial industry have proved beyond doubt that they are no freinds of true business. People have lost jobs, houses, livelihoods and even their lives due to the garbage and misrepresentation spread by people like you Pitts.
I work every day in this industry. Everywhere I go I see CHC people and aircraft working hard, looking good and making bacon.
Give it a rest with your doomsaying rhetoric.
DB sorry but I've no energy to engage in the school yard type jibes that typify much and many of your postings.
Ive not knocked the people working at CHC, I don't doubt they are hard working people doing a good job. You sounding sympathetic to their cause / plight sadly isn't going do them any good though is it?
CHC isn't trading where it is because of some handbaging on here nor will it rise because of a good noshing.
You and others critical of the market what you forget is its there you find people who actually own the company. Full stop.
I sounded caution of the company lately after questioning NWS and asking him why he was a buyer. Nothing to date has changed that view and looking at where the stock trades it seems it's not a isolated view.
Hard work alone won't save the company, like it hasn't saved very many other industries and business in the past. To think other wise is merely sticking your head in the sand.
If you don't mind tell me how I've mis-represented anything in this thread. Just one thing....
Ive not knocked the people working at CHC, I don't doubt they are hard working people doing a good job. You sounding sympathetic to their cause / plight sadly isn't going do them any good though is it?
CHC isn't trading where it is because of some handbaging on here nor will it rise because of a good noshing.
You and others critical of the market what you forget is its there you find people who actually own the company. Full stop.
I sounded caution of the company lately after questioning NWS and asking him why he was a buyer. Nothing to date has changed that view and looking at where the stock trades it seems it's not a isolated view.
Hard work alone won't save the company, like it hasn't saved very many other industries and business in the past. To think other wise is merely sticking your head in the sand.
If you don't mind tell me how I've mis-represented anything in this thread. Just one thing....
MGD, once again we are in chronic agreement.
On the topic of the NYSE rules, I actually deleted that post once I found the rule everyone was quoting about but hey ho, I'll take that as a learning point.
On that topic though, CHC (CD&R) can just do a 10:1 swap and miraculously the shares become worth $4 again. It's easy to do, Apple and Citigroup are among the companies that have altered their share structure in this way.
Mitchaa you too are right
Professional investors (of the buy and hold brigade) bought a huge chunk of the remaining 25% (ish) that CD&R didn't buy and now the available shares for joe public for private investment is a fraction of the total number of shares. On a daily basis around 350k shares are traded (current value about $170k) of the outstanding (ie shares that were issued at the IPO) 72m. It's a very illiquid stock, a very small company by NYSE standards and a bit of a tight spot (but emerging) with bad sentiment and some long term investors. We should all expect volatility.
Pitts, after this I'm done but I note that you didn't actually answer my 2 questions.
I've just bought 2000 shares and we can revisit this conversation in 2 years time.
On the topic of the NYSE rules, I actually deleted that post once I found the rule everyone was quoting about but hey ho, I'll take that as a learning point.
On that topic though, CHC (CD&R) can just do a 10:1 swap and miraculously the shares become worth $4 again. It's easy to do, Apple and Citigroup are among the companies that have altered their share structure in this way.
Mitchaa you too are right
Professional investors (of the buy and hold brigade) bought a huge chunk of the remaining 25% (ish) that CD&R didn't buy and now the available shares for joe public for private investment is a fraction of the total number of shares. On a daily basis around 350k shares are traded (current value about $170k) of the outstanding (ie shares that were issued at the IPO) 72m. It's a very illiquid stock, a very small company by NYSE standards and a bit of a tight spot (but emerging) with bad sentiment and some long term investors. We should all expect volatility.
Pitts, after this I'm done but I note that you didn't actually answer my 2 questions.
I've just bought 2000 shares and we can revisit this conversation in 2 years time.
Pitts, I note that you didn't actually answer my 2 questions.
1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
I don't know how else to explain it really. Ultimately a share is what? Its a claim on future cash flows of the entity in question and so whilst you may think it (CHC) should be worth more, or First Reserve may like to wish it was worth more.... the market is telling you it isn't.
Here is a list that you will be able to see for the major holders of CHC:-
CHC Group Ltd. (HELI) Ownership Summary - NASDAQ.com
So the share you see quoted and could buy at 42cents is the very same thing as held by First Reserve (the major holder of common stock). The same. i.e. if your share is worth 42cents... so is every single one of their individual shares.
The CD&R holding that you keep mentioning is in convertible preferred shares, which is different to common equity. These instruments are a debt instrument that give the holder (in this case CD&R) a coupon (i.e. something that gives a % return - like a bond) and the opportunity for CD&R to convert these into common equity (yes the same as we have been talking about above and is trading at 42cents...)... giving the holder the option to benefit from a higher stock price... Hmmm not today anyway. Plus they have the added kicker that as preferred shares the common stock holders are subordinate to these in the event of any default.. Which brings us nicely onto a point in your question No.2....
By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
Err come on NWS when you say..
2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
So do you get it now? Because this:-
Professional investors (of the buy and hold brigade) bought a huge chunk of the remaining 25% (ish) that CD&R didn't buy and now the available shares for joe public for private investment is a fraction of the total number of shares.
we can revisit this conversation in 2 years time.
Good luck in your trade.
As for this:-
Forgive me if I'm wrong here but only a 1/4 of the company is traded on in the NYSE? CD&R only ever put up 25-26% of the company for trade.
So even if the shares dropped to $0.01, it's not going to end CHC like some on here would like to believe.
It's a company that is year on year bringing in $1.8bn worth of revenue.
So even if the shares dropped to $0.01, it's not going to end CHC like some on here would like to believe.
It's a company that is year on year bringing in $1.8bn worth of revenue.
Fukk me its painful.
When a stock trades at 1cent what do you think that is telling you?
Last quote is not from me Pitts... At least I had the decency to admit my NYSE rule error, doubt I'll get same from you on this.
You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.
"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.
I'm done with you. Ciao.
You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.
"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.
I'm done with you. Ciao.
Last edited by nowherespecial; 19th Jul 2015 at 09:10.
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PittsExtra is right
I followed a few lectures in finance as a part of an MBA study. The one important knowledge/wisdom I got out of that is that the stockmarket prices reflects the Net Present Value of all future profit of a company on a per share basis. Thus I realised the rationale behind the high valuation of Google, Apple and the likes.
Thus the market currently does not think that CHC will make serious profits in the future.
Thus the market currently does not think that CHC will make serious profits in the future.
Last quote is not from me Pitts... At least I had the decency to admit my NYSE rule error, doubt I'll get same from you on this.
You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.
"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.
I'm done with you. Ciao.
You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.
"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.
I'm done with you. Ciao.
I know this is dragging on and on but it is important to be accurate on this stuff because people shouldn't be misguided by wrong statements.
The Nasdaq website you are unhappy with was just used as it was convenient. You could type any U.S. ticker in their search engine and it will give data. Alternatively you could go to NYSE site and look for the holders of CHC which trades under the ticker HELI and it will give the same data - like I said I happened to be using the Nasdaq site so I hope that clears that up for you.
FR did not sell out last year. It is too long for here and explanation needs to have a level of assumed prior knowledge but here is random release for the CD&R investment.
https://www.pehub.com/canada/2014/08/22/clayton-dubilier-rice-invests-500-mln-chc-helicopter/
The interesting part for you and the CD&R relationship and the FR stake is in the press release and describes the convert terms. It starts:-
"CD&R will have a 45-percent ownership position in CHC Group on an as-converted, pro-forma basis, based on a $500 million investment and prior to the rights offering. This percentage could decrease or increase depending on participation of existing shareholders in the rights offering. First Reserve Corporation and its affiliates, which purchased CHC in 2008, would retain approximately 29-percent ownership in CHC, on a pro-forma basis."
Is that helpful?
When you talk about "available" shares, that is the "free float" but the shares are still shown on a holders list, still show corporate ownership and the valuation of the entity - they are just not actively traded.
Happy for you to show me / others your own CHC holders list from the NYSE or other source that you think is so different. Maybe try CHC corporate site and look under "investor relations".
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This entire scenario brings perfect clarity to that ancient helicopter proverb.
"How do you make a small fortune in the helicopter business?"
"Start with a large one and just give it time!"
Sadly, I think they omitted that part in Business School when doing their MBA.
"How do you make a small fortune in the helicopter business?"
"Start with a large one and just give it time!"
Sadly, I think they omitted that part in Business School when doing their MBA.
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It's all excessively worrying nevertheless. 
Clearly the company is not being viewed by the market as being in a healthy state. How bad things are remain to be seen, the share price is down remarkably low in a very short time, there are pending litigations against the company, the price of oil is down and could fall even more, there are less contracts, and some lost. Over three-quarters of a BILLION dollars ($783 Million) has melted away in valuation in 18 months. That is roughly a 1.5 Million EVERY DAY since the IPO.
The most worrying bit is that there is complete silence from the the leadership on the situation. If ever there was a moment for a rousing speech to the troops, this might be the time.
HELI Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
Clearly the company is not being viewed by the market as being in a healthy state. How bad things are remain to be seen, the share price is down remarkably low in a very short time, there are pending litigations against the company, the price of oil is down and could fall even more, there are less contracts, and some lost. Over three-quarters of a BILLION dollars ($783 Million) has melted away in valuation in 18 months. That is roughly a 1.5 Million EVERY DAY since the IPO.
The most worrying bit is that there is complete silence from the the leadership on the situation. If ever there was a moment for a rousing speech to the troops, this might be the time.
HELI Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
So I was bored yesterday while flying somewhere and was presented with a Bloomberg terminal. For those of you who never worked for an investment bank, a Bloomberg terminal is live market information. LIVE. real time, not filings which are required quarterly, real deal live data. FR are not one of the top 25 share holders in CHC common stock.
(Interestingly Bill Amelio for example is the 11th biggest shareholder.)
Sadly you can't do screen grabs on public access terminals at London City but if you could I could have shown you that of the 15 largest shareholders, the 1 month change is that 8 of them are adding to their portfolios at the current prices while the rest are unchanged. The majority of the investors are either sector specific funds or blended funds. But number 1 on the gun is CD&R who own 49m of 72m.
The beauty of Bloomberg is that it is what the situation is right now, not what happened in August last year when CD&R invested.
Pitts is right in some ways, as is Toolboy ref NPV and future earnings. They are also right when more sellers than buyers = declining price. I have said all along that CHC is in a bad place, I'm just arguing that share price alone is a poor indicator of how a company is doing. it is a very good indicator of what investors think.
The much more troubling thing is the debt which CHC has which totals $1.6bn which is maturing over the next 20 years. Holding debt is not at all uncommon for large corporates, BRS for example are currently holding about $750m which matures over the next 20 years but CHC is high coupon (9.25%) and that is what is bleeding them. The estmiate Bloomberg had on that debt was about $60m a year in interest alone (ie not paying back the underlying asset). That is what is killing CHC way more than any stock price fluctuations. But as long as they keep paying the interest off, the lights stay on and CHC is viable.
Who owns the debt though (ie who are CHC paying)...... First Reserve. The CHC investment is the gift that keeps on giving.
Damn it, I replied again. Less excited this time though. Group hug for me and Pitts I think. Good for the soul.
(Interestingly Bill Amelio for example is the 11th biggest shareholder.)
Sadly you can't do screen grabs on public access terminals at London City but if you could I could have shown you that of the 15 largest shareholders, the 1 month change is that 8 of them are adding to their portfolios at the current prices while the rest are unchanged. The majority of the investors are either sector specific funds or blended funds. But number 1 on the gun is CD&R who own 49m of 72m.
The beauty of Bloomberg is that it is what the situation is right now, not what happened in August last year when CD&R invested.
Pitts is right in some ways, as is Toolboy ref NPV and future earnings. They are also right when more sellers than buyers = declining price. I have said all along that CHC is in a bad place, I'm just arguing that share price alone is a poor indicator of how a company is doing. it is a very good indicator of what investors think.
The much more troubling thing is the debt which CHC has which totals $1.6bn which is maturing over the next 20 years. Holding debt is not at all uncommon for large corporates, BRS for example are currently holding about $750m which matures over the next 20 years but CHC is high coupon (9.25%) and that is what is bleeding them. The estmiate Bloomberg had on that debt was about $60m a year in interest alone (ie not paying back the underlying asset). That is what is killing CHC way more than any stock price fluctuations. But as long as they keep paying the interest off, the lights stay on and CHC is viable.
Who owns the debt though (ie who are CHC paying)...... First Reserve. The CHC investment is the gift that keeps on giving.
Damn it, I replied again. Less excited this time though. Group hug for me and Pitts I think. Good for the soul.
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I'd just like remind those who think Financially it has bottomed or is turning around.
Apart from the massive amount of Debt, Share Price, Revenue, ETC... Every quarter and every year the Net LOSS continues to get larger. There is a finite amount of time you can survive like this. When the Whole Balance Sheet is a total mess, This is the only SINGLE figure that really matters.
CHC and Greese have a lot in common right now.
Apart from the massive amount of Debt, Share Price, Revenue, ETC... Every quarter and every year the Net LOSS continues to get larger. There is a finite amount of time you can survive like this. When the Whole Balance Sheet is a total mess, This is the only SINGLE figure that really matters.
CHC and Greese have a lot in common right now.
