Rumors of automated pilots
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Rumors of automated pilots
Greetings fellow pilots,
Let me introduce myself. I am a 17 year old student pilot and have almost attained my PPL. I am seriously considering a career in aviation because I absolutely love to fly. I have heard rumors (Actually speculation from flight shows I've watched) about the human pilot being phased out and replaced with computers. I would very much appreciate a seasoned pilots' point of view on what the job market will look like in 8-10 years and if it will be worth my while to pursue a career in aviation. Thanks!
Let me introduce myself. I am a 17 year old student pilot and have almost attained my PPL. I am seriously considering a career in aviation because I absolutely love to fly. I have heard rumors (Actually speculation from flight shows I've watched) about the human pilot being phased out and replaced with computers. I would very much appreciate a seasoned pilots' point of view on what the job market will look like in 8-10 years and if it will be worth my while to pursue a career in aviation. Thanks!
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You'll be just in time to take advantage of The Great Pilot Shortage which has been coming for at least the last thirty years of what I loosely call my career...
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I've heard about the pilot shortage quite a bit. But what concerns me a bit is that I will go through all my training and maybe fly a few years, then i will be replaced with a computer. This might be crazy talk, but it's crossed my mind. What do you think?
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Well, at least some military pilots will be replaced:
"...Congress last year set a goal of making a third of deep-first-strike aircraft in the U.S. fleet unmanned by 2010."
from: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-011902drone.story
A couple of the major cargo operators are known to be funding serious studies of pilotless planes. "Scope" is a very novel concept in the freight dog business.
At some point in the near future, airline contracts will have an automation section. Perhaps pilots will be grandfathered like Profession Flight Engineers in the old ALPA contracts.
I figure pilots have at least as much job security versus automation as elevator operators.
"...Congress last year set a goal of making a third of deep-first-strike aircraft in the U.S. fleet unmanned by 2010."
from: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-011902drone.story
A couple of the major cargo operators are known to be funding serious studies of pilotless planes. "Scope" is a very novel concept in the freight dog business.
At some point in the near future, airline contracts will have an automation section. Perhaps pilots will be grandfathered like Profession Flight Engineers in the old ALPA contracts.
I figure pilots have at least as much job security versus automation as elevator operators.
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I think it'll be a close run thing between pilotless cockpits and the fuel running out.
If you look at the demand/supply curves for oil based products, fuel will become in sufficiently short supply as world demand rockets upwards to force JetA1 prices up far enough to take mass air travel out. There will still be air travel, but prices will go back to relative 1950s prices e.g. a ticket to Australia will be the same as a small house, New York from Europe a year's salary.
I give it 15 years, 20 absolute tops.
If you're looking for the golden age of mass air travel, we're in it right now. Enjoy it while you can!
As to taking up a career as a pilot, given the above, absolutely, in a heartbeat. Even if you only do it for a year, if you're in love with flying, do it. That's what I would say if I was 17 and staring at myself in a mirror. However, I'm now an old F*art, and youngsters don't listen to them - I never did.
Cheers,
The Odd One
If you look at the demand/supply curves for oil based products, fuel will become in sufficiently short supply as world demand rockets upwards to force JetA1 prices up far enough to take mass air travel out. There will still be air travel, but prices will go back to relative 1950s prices e.g. a ticket to Australia will be the same as a small house, New York from Europe a year's salary.
I give it 15 years, 20 absolute tops.
If you're looking for the golden age of mass air travel, we're in it right now. Enjoy it while you can!
As to taking up a career as a pilot, given the above, absolutely, in a heartbeat. Even if you only do it for a year, if you're in love with flying, do it. That's what I would say if I was 17 and staring at myself in a mirror. However, I'm now an old F*art, and youngsters don't listen to them - I never did.
Cheers,
The Odd One
Speaking personally, and probably for millions of other people as well! The day they try to fly passenger aeroplanes without a human pilot on board, is the day that I stop travelling by air!!
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This month I have had :
Flight management computer failure
Single autopilot Computer failure
One Eicas Computer failure
and
Retail company couldn't take my order due Computer failure
Gas company couldn't help me with enquiry because of Computer failure
The good thing is that when the computer crashes, it is the only thing that does.
No doubt one day such events will be so rare as to represent an acceptable level of risk. At the present time and probably into the near future it would be laughable to even suggest such systems for passenger aircraft. To sell such an idea to human customers, you would have to convince them beyond all reasonable doubt that such systems represented the most minute level of risk. In the distant future that might well be the reality.
Flight management computer failure
Single autopilot Computer failure
One Eicas Computer failure
and
Retail company couldn't take my order due Computer failure
Gas company couldn't help me with enquiry because of Computer failure
The good thing is that when the computer crashes, it is the only thing that does.
No doubt one day such events will be so rare as to represent an acceptable level of risk. At the present time and probably into the near future it would be laughable to even suggest such systems for passenger aircraft. To sell such an idea to human customers, you would have to convince them beyond all reasonable doubt that such systems represented the most minute level of risk. In the distant future that might well be the reality.
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Geez, I wish I was 17 again..I think my priority would be below my belt. Anyhow, after you get THE job, count on the crew management system to take care of any desires other than sleep. You've got a long road ahead of you, stick to it and don't get discouraged. Good luck and I wouldn't worry about being replaced by a silicone, except at home
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Just to put things into perspective - remember the flight using the Global Hawk system in an unmanned aircraft with the wingspan of a 737 that went from the USA to Australia non stop just a few months before 911?
For some reason this technological miracle has not been heralded much in the mass media.
For some reason this technological miracle has not been heralded much in the mass media.
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KLM has them now!! automated pilots who operate the aircraft, bloody good at doing things as "written in the book" but anything else is "shnot possibbbllle"
In other words the robot airline already exists, hopefully Air France will change things for the better.
In other words the robot airline already exists, hopefully Air France will change things for the better.
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We were at the right place at the right time
A really fun thread on pprune in quite a while.
My take on it:
If Civilisation on earth survives a few more thousand years,and someone makes a list of the top 10 "fun" vocations that have ever employed humans.my bet is "pilot" will be somewhere near the top of that list,perhaps next to "Indiana Jones"!
This job became available just 100 years ago,and will exist in its "Indiana Jones" form(or avtaar) probably at the most for another 100 years(just a bit past young 17 year olds retirement,i am guessing)
Because, unless some crazy aviator cousin/s play a significant role in ending civilisation on earth as we know it,a 100 years from now most "Jobs" will be reduced to "programmer"
So looking at the bigger picture of the history of the world,we lucky ones sure hit the jackpot as far as good timing is concerned!
My take on it:
If Civilisation on earth survives a few more thousand years,and someone makes a list of the top 10 "fun" vocations that have ever employed humans.my bet is "pilot" will be somewhere near the top of that list,perhaps next to "Indiana Jones"!
This job became available just 100 years ago,and will exist in its "Indiana Jones" form(or avtaar) probably at the most for another 100 years(just a bit past young 17 year olds retirement,i am guessing)
Because, unless some crazy aviator cousin/s play a significant role in ending civilisation on earth as we know it,a 100 years from now most "Jobs" will be reduced to "programmer"
So looking at the bigger picture of the history of the world,we lucky ones sure hit the jackpot as far as good timing is concerned!
If you think that extremely complex nature of aircraft command and control can be automated to the point of not requiring a pilot, then why has the vastly more simple closed loop system that trains operate in not been automated in the way propsed ?
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Of course with the Light railway, when it goes wrong it simply stops. Someone comes along with a ladder and every body slumps off moaning. Big difference with a firey charred trail of wreckage gracing the evening news. It is that reality that has to be overcome before such automation ever becomes feasable. A long way in the future I think ?
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I wondered the same thing. However, if you really want an indicator, look at te trains!!
If ever there was a chance to fully automate a mode of public transport it is the rail system, yet it hasn't happened. One thing a computer doesn't have, that the travelling public want in a pilot is the will to live. When $hit hits the fan, a pilot may not have all the answers. He does however have a vested interest in finding them. A computer does not.
That is all.
ps. im a bit thick so probably best not to listen to me, in fact ignore me completely!
If ever there was a chance to fully automate a mode of public transport it is the rail system, yet it hasn't happened. One thing a computer doesn't have, that the travelling public want in a pilot is the will to live. When $hit hits the fan, a pilot may not have all the answers. He does however have a vested interest in finding them. A computer does not.
That is all.
ps. im a bit thick so probably best not to listen to me, in fact ignore me completely!
Last edited by flyboy007; 20th Dec 2004 at 13:59.