Pilot shortage predicted in 3 Yrs
 

Just received the latest BALPA newsletter and it claims there will be a requirement for 2500-5000 pilots over the next 3-6 years. Easy Jet,Ryanair and DHL are doing the bulk of the hiring with a annual requirement for 600 pilots between the three.Lots of other positive news in the letter and so things are definetely looking up.
:rolleyes:

I have heard this for the last 12 - 15 years. During this period a supposed pilot shortage has always been lurking just around the corner and it has never happened. Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope it does occur as it will inflate my salary, but from past experience, I can only conclude that it never will.

All figures quoted before I believe. Rather like a Chancellor's budget in the House of Commons I fear.

There will be a shortage of suitably qualified type rated people without a doubt I am sure. However, reality suggests until we are firmly wearing the boots on our feet not a lot will change. Management will always seek to take the p?ss.

The reality is for wannabees with low hours you should look at the names mentioned...DHL,Go,easyJet etc....all BIG JET operators. The sad reality is that unless you get very lucky, you should still concentrate on the smaller operators for that first elusive break in a right seat.

It sounds negative, but it is reality i fear.

Shoot me down if you will.......

WWW/Scroggs, any thoughts on the new BALPA publication?

Regards.

It's still positive.

Where do the extra 'big jet' pilots come from?

Remember Ronnie Regan's trickle down theroy?

Prior to commencing my commercial pilot training in 1999, I sought the advice of a 'Commercial Pilot Consultant', who (for a large fee) planned my training schedule, and gave his expert advice on becoming a professional pilot.

He produced numerous graphs, charts, written articles, etc. which predicted the forthcoming pilot shortage, and subsequent hiring boom. These documents all indicated that there would be one year in particular when there would be jobs galore. One year when the demand for new pilots would outstrip supply. One year when airline training captains and personnel managers would be forced to hang around bars in the vicinity of the major flying schools, waiting to pounce on unsuspecting students, plying them with copious amounts of alcohol, before feverishly pushing contracts under their noses.

The year in question was................................2002.

I don't believe the figures - they are pure speculation. What sort of figures were being quoted before 9/11?

But the fact is that all airlines have stopped their cadet programmes. Should there be an upturn - the signs indicate there is one on the way, they will soon be in the situation similar to the one after the Gulf War when all training stopped. In 1993-4, all you had to have to get a job was a pulse and a license.

Individuals have been put off from self-sponsoring since 9/11, the schools are running at half capacity. Also, there are less military pilots than there were - and some in the British military are being tempted by the new Financial Retention Incentives and the job security the military offers.

Reading the signs, I think a shortage is on the way.

How anyone can say that the signs indicate a pilot shortage is on the way mystifies me.

How many airlines have gone "tits up" in the last 8 months? I can think of five just off the top of my head, and they're in Europe alone.

How many pilots have been laid off? I don't know but world wide, it's in the thousands.

How many airlines are struggling to make ends meet? and so on and so on.

To me, none of these signs indicate a pilot shortage now, soon or any time at all.

Sorry to be the barer of bad news, but that's just the way I see it.

If it is of any interest I happen to know that one major charter airline is considering an ab-initio sponsorship in the not too distant future. Things can't be that bad, although one does ask the question, why do so when there are so many qualified pilots out there, type rated and non type rated?

There may not be a shortage of pilots round the corner, but before 9/11 there was most definitely a shortage of quality pilots brewing. In retrospect, 9/11 will look like a small blip on the hiring graph, however large it looms at present. While airlines have gone TU, others have prospered. Pilots continue to retire, and fewer trainees are entering the industry at the moment.

The problem the airlines have is that it takes more than a fATPL to be the right recruitment material. Flight schools churn out both excellent and unemployable graduates. During the next couple of years there will be a shortage of the excellent. There will also be people who are unable to get jobs, having just got their fATPL and they will be on PPRuNe wondering why.

Yeah I do wonder about that from time to time ... a certain nameless student of mine failed his PPL performance and loading exam by a pretty enormous margin and had to re sit it a couple of times ... no big deal, except the guy already worked as a flight dispatcher :eek:

Don't get your hopes up too high just yet!
 

Remember that the point of the Balpa article was to highlight the lack of industry effort in training for the future. They are trying to persuade the airlines to cough up and plan for training years ahead, rather than the crisis management that they traditionally indulge in. To reinforce their point, they are using the statistics that most help their case. I think most readers of that article will apply a bit of realism to those figures!

An obvious example of the ambiguity of these kind of statistics is that Balpa have used Ryanair and Easyjet's highest projections of their pilot needs for the next ten years. It seems obvious to me that the real figures are likely to be somewhat lower, especially as these two directly compete against each other and are unlikely to realise all their plans! The absorbtion of Go and probably Deutsche BA, by EZ will also seriously alter those forecasts. Equally, bmibaby are unlikely to expand as fast as they say they will. Buzz may well leave the marketplace altogether, at least in UK - either that or they'll get reabsorbed into KLM Uk. I'd suggest that you take the Balpa figure of 1640-2580 new jobs in this sector over the next 3 years as more realistically 800-1000.

You'll notice, if you have access to the article, that Balpa doesn't suggest any expansion of the major UK airlines, but looks for expansion in air freight, mentioning specifically DHL, UPS and Air Atlas. Of course, they forget to mention that these guys also compete against each other and that they are also unlikely all to expand as much as they'd like.

The other part of the Balpa argument is the so-called 'retirement bulge', quoting 371 retirements from BA 2002-5. Spookily, BA have said that they need to lose 400 flight deck posts in this time scale! Recruiting problem? I don't think so. They suggest that all the other UK airlines will lose 66 pilots each year over the same period - 198 total. I think that there are considerably more than 198 pilots ready and available to take up those posts, don't you? And if retirements really do become a problem, BA could always up its retirement age to 60 in line with the rest of us.

My point is that this article is to back up a specific argument - about airline training. It isn't really a serious comment on your job prospects over the next few years and, because of its aim, it gives an over-optimistic view of the number of pilots needed in that time. So don't get your hopes up too much; remember there are somewhere around 1000 type-rated and experienced pilots still on the dole, and there are new guys graduating from the training system all the time with no jobs to go to - yet.

The outlook is by no means as gloomy as it was, but neither should you believe the assumptions in this article. They just don't add up!

And not to mention that now after GO-easyjet-DBA has occured MOL has decided to take all of the options from Boeing. That means 150 pilots a year going to Ryanair!!!

I am far too merry to post a reply. For now I with Scorgs.

The pilot shortage is mytchical,l

WWW

EDIT I leave the above as an illustration of the dangers of posting post public house! :rolleyes:

My god Weasley ... what happened to you??!! :D :D :eek: :eek:

Looks to me like the wiley welshman is suffering from amber syndrome. Not flying today then W ?

Pilot shortage ? - ahh it would be nice. Optimism costs nought. I'm sure Scorgs would agree.

I'm not a green, but where's all the fuel going to come frame? Iraq, Alaska, Russia? I know this is a really negative comment but I ain't that sure it'll be cost effective to fill-up in 10 years time. As supply decreases, price will increase. As price increases, demand for seats will decrease. As demand for seats decreases, less planes. As less planes, less pilots...

This will cause airlines to opt to cut costs, UAV, remote control operations etc. Unless fuel cell development comes a long way, very quickly - we could be.....

VT

I think people are giving these numerical quantative pilot number predictions a bit too credit than they're worth.

Looking at the industry qualitatively, post Sep 11, the beancounters all raced to slash costs immediately, and Pilot numbers were reduced (in some amusing knee jerk cases too much!) to the leanest possible numbers the planned rosters could cope with. Remember those post Sep 11 economic forecasts predicting global economic meltdown and world anarchy?!! So you can hardly blame them for wanting to batton down the hatches when they had the opportunity, and the whole Airline industry was doing likewise.

But this means that very nearly ALL the Airlines are currently operating close to their minimum crewing requirement and it is just a matter of time before all the Airlines will suddenly want to start recruiting, and it will happen quickly and all at the same time.

Currently Airline recruiters are sat fat dumb and happy with a few type rated, current, and suitable guys floating around but this number is being whittled away at as we speak and is much smaller than everyone thinks. I think Airlines who want to recruit type rated guys better move before the others to avoid paying the Sim and base checks themselves.

I think at most Sep 11 has caused around a 12-18 month pause in the Airlines future plans, and hence the recruitment market. Airlines are bringing their heads out of the sand and are looking to get back on track as per their pre Sep 11 business plans, otherwise their competitors will happily take the lead for them.


THE EUROPEAN AIRLINE INDUSTRY HAS RECOVERED, DONT BELIEVE THE MANAGEMENT COST CUTTING SPIN!!!

THE RECRUITMENT DRIVES WILL START SOON AND IT WILL INCLUDE NEARLY ALL AIRLINES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AT THEIR LEANEST FOR YEARS, AND IT WILL HAPPEN QUICK, YOU GOTTA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

I understand what Scroggs is saying but if everything is looking so gloomy then why, as I stated in my previous post, is a major charter outfit looking to train up a number of ab-initio cadets?

If you understand what I was saying, you will realise that I wasn't being gloomy at all, but suggesting that you take the Balpa figures with a large pinch of salt. These figures are to back up a specific worst-case argument, and do not really form a realistic look at the immediate future.

As for airlines being ready to resume their commercial plans from before 11 Sep, most were already in decline and looking towards contraction rather than expansion. The main effects of Sep 11th are that the major airlines' capacity was cut to fit the anticipated reduced demand, and a price war began because no-one wanted to reduce capacity quite as much as they probably should have done. In other words, there were, and are still, more seats than customers - and the customers we have ain't paying very much, so there's very little profit to fund any immediate re-expansion. Even Balpa's figures recognise that only the low-cost operators and freight lines are likely to show any significant expansio over the next 3-5 years.

It's not all bad, by any means - and it's a bloody sight better than it was 6 months ago, but don't get too carried away!

cabinkitten - do you mean Britannia?

They are past masters at making noises about cadet schemes but in totality they never amounted to much.

Any Charter operator thinking of running a cadetship could save a fortune by simply hiring the ex-Airtours cadets not taken on poast 9/11. Some are flying turboprops in regional airlines others finished training only to stack supermarket shelves.

All were selected from thousands of applicants and trained to high standards. All are available tomorrow for a Jet course...

WWW

ps Not to mention the BMI cadets still looking for work.

pps Or the Aer Lingus.

ppps You get the picture.

Ummm......yep, WWW has got it in one, the airline with the new duck egg blue livery.

There was a recession on even before September 11th. Now there's a recovery on. To quote the eminent economist, Professor Paul Samuelson, "economists have a very long way to go as a policy-advising profession". As a general rule, the more specific an economic forecast is, the less likely it is to be accurate. Mind you, the actuaries are better - all those old capts have to jack it in one day, given that the population in most Western countries is ageing fast. That is a trend that will survive the ups-n-downs of the airline business.

Oh just be positive!!!!
 

Why do we allways speculate and shoot each other down?
The times I've put up positive posts about recruitment, and some moaner who obviuosly is the most pesimistic person in the world, just goes;
"Ohh I dont know, this is all myth, its not true, I havent heard anything at all, it's all a load of crap, actually the statistics show..."

Well just shutup!:mad:
Just take it as a tiny piece of hope that may have a chance of being true. Just give all the wannabes a break, we need rumours like these, so just let them go!!!:mad: :mad: :mad:
It keeps us happy!!!!

Fine, we'll just keep telling you that everything is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds. Or why don't you get your Mummy to read you a few fairy tales when you go to bed? They'll be about as much use to you!

Part of preparing for your future is maximising your opportunities in difficult times. To do that, you have to be well-informed. Platitudes and wishful thinking just will not help.

But you go ahead! Let us know how the real world feels when you wake up!

I have been in the pilot training "game" since 1975,in that time I have seen the saw tooth graph of pilot supply and demand through all its violent swings.
However, throughout this period I know of not one pilot who has not obtained an airline job.
Some did have to wait a little while though.
Patience will be rewarded.
(Some of the guys I trained back in the late 70's have now retired from the airlines)
regards

I gotta agree with Speedbird here, i slog my ass off to do my ATPL's like every other wannabe and come on here hoping to hear a glimer of hope of any news of recruitment etc...an it p***es me off to hear ....blah blah no-ones recruiting at the moment and won't be for the next 20 years blah blah. If your gonna post that then don't bother i'd rather not hear it!

Yeah the truth hurts but when i'm shellin out all this cash i wanna hear something a little more motivating :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

This place should be called P Doom and Gloom.

And I've no doubt you bought your ISA from Aberdeen Technology in March 2000, your insurance from Equitable Life, your power from Enron, and you're just thinking about buying into Marconi!

We are not here to tell you what you want to hear; we are here to tell you the truth as we see it, based on our many collective years of experience. If you don't wish to take our advice, that's your prerogative, but rose-tinted views of the market don't help anyone except the recipients of your cash.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not aiming to put people off training, but I don't want people basing major investment and life decisions on inaccurate or misleading 'facts'.

I think Burger King are recruiting!!!!!:p

Hey guys, give scroggs a break, I for one am shelling out large amounts of cash for my frozen ATPL and am glad to hear the 'truth' about recruitment before I throw away anymore cash.

At the moment I'm looking at two/three years before I get my first break and I'm not expecting a jet job, although that is what I'm aiming for.

My interpretation of what Steamhead is saying is not a pop at Scroggs and Wee Weasley as we know their credentials and respect their views, its the "Gloom and Doom" merchants who pop up, caste their seeds of worry and doubt then disappear without quantifying their source or reason for saying what they have.

I for one would be much more tolerant of what is said if someone were to say:

"Its not looking good, I'm a recruiter for airline X and we have no plans to recruit for another 12 months", that way even if its left as airline X it has a little more credence.

That sound is me stepping off my soap box.

Cheers all

TBL:D

A view from across the pond,

I would like to jump into this discussion. I will start by saying I agree with Scrogs and WWW. They are both using the experience they have to help keep the playing field level. There is a reason they moderate this forum. Both know what they are talking about.

I on the other hand have limited experience and wish to give my two cents. Things here in Canada took a nose dive in the fall of 2001. It looked bad. It has been only 9 months and the recovery is starting and looks like it will be in full swing by the end of 2002. Our main charter operator Canada 3000 went tits up. Air Canada was talking layoffs. Westjet (Canada's Ryanair) never missed a beat. Industry wide restructuring has taken place and the hiring has begun. Air Canada took 20 folks this month and from talking to people at AC, will be taking many more in the near future. Westjet is hiring a gang every month. The regional carriers are starting to get thin. It is only a matter of time until they start bringing people in.

My point is that demand is the only factor. Europe from my view point is just a little behind my part of the world. It is a huge aviation market rivaled only by th US. It will take time, but it will come. Jet jobs maybe out of the question for many of you in the near future. This in my mind is a perfect opportunity to go out and have some real fun. Teach others how to fly. Fly a traffic aircraft or a crop duster. Go to Africa or the Maldives and fly tourists. Pull banners in Cancun. Go to Fiji and fly floats. Try out some bush flying here in Canada. It is all within reach. If you can get a licence to fly you can do all of these things. There is one sure thing in your career. If you want the big iron it will happen. In the mean time enjoy yourselves. In the end there are two things that will get you where you want to be. A log book full of hours and the people you meet along the way.

I have taken interest in the European job scene for one reason. In a year I will have a JAA ATPL with 3000 hours of flying time and serious want for a good job in the UK. My concerns are similar to those of you just breaking into the industry. My conversion will cost 1 year's worth of salary. It would be easy to give it up but I refuse. The reward will be worth it.

The time that I have built so far has been a riot. Flying numerous types of light turbo props all over Canada and the world. It has been brilliant. I will look back on it with excellent memories and lots of stories. That being said I am looking forward to moving on.

Our destiny as induviduals is controlled by only one thing. That of course is ourselves. Make the best of it.

Good luck ladies and gents.

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

In Holland and Belgium flight schools have this "shortage in xxx years" line in all their brochures for years. Talk with an instructor and his eyes will start shining, euro signs appear in his eyes and he's sure you'll miss the boat if you don't start now spending your floepies now. Probably the same whereever there are flightschools.
In my opinion predicting the growth in passenger seats and future flights is something that is not without a lot of uncertainty, like the economy, stock prices or global warming. About the growth of the low-cost carriers. I ask myself what will happen if there is an accident in the future. (please god let's hope it'll never happen) We pilots won't point our finger immediately towards cost-saving measures but the public will. Hard to say the result but I do think people will prefer to pay a bit more to fly the 'classic' airlines again, resulting in job-losses at the low-cost airlines. By the way I'm not saying this is what's gonna happen, it's just thoughts on these matters.

I am sure it is alot easier now to obtain airline jobs than back in the 1970's and 1980's. Its really a case of peaks and troughs. Some years are better than others. If you look back to the 1960's and 1970's there were fewer wannabes, but also fewer aeroplanes also. In addition to this, there were many hundreds of able RAF and RN pilots wanting their first break into the commercial scene. In todays world things are different, less RAF guys, more aeroplanes and the airline industry is worth ten times as much.

As for the people who get jobs it comes down to determination and willingness to sacrifice things in their life. This is only my opinion I hasten to add.

No-one knows
 

"It is hard to predict, especially about the future"

but one thing is for sure, when pilots are needed again, it takes at least two years from scratch to get ready. Judging from history, I would say the worst time to start is 3 to 5 years into a economical peak period - chances are you are ready when the economic low starts. It would be better to start in the middle or end of a low period, to be ready when it is needed in the coming up period.

Now is not the worst time to start, if you plan on a two-year span of the education - I can't predict either, but something tells me this low is going to be shorter.

To those of you who are underway already, have just finished or are just plain unemployed like me (2000+ hours including jet time), well, take a number, line up in sequence and hope not too many collegues jump the line.

TheDrop

Yes, I think you're pretty much spot-on. The next six to twelve months are probably a good time to start training. That doesn't mean that there will be a job waiting for you when you graduate, but you should hit the upward slope of the economic cycle quite nicely! Of course, there is - and maybe still will be - a big backlog to clear, but unless you're in the queue you won't get what you're after!

Predicting the future is fraught with difficulties and traps. In deciding who to listen to, you're probably best ignoring the extremes of opinion. Balpa's (remember the start of this thread...?) opinion was, I think, extremely optimistic - as are probably those of most FTOs' marketing departments! You'll see others that are extremely pessimistic. The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle - and only hindsight will prove who was right.....

Out of interest just how good is anyone, in particular the airlines themselves, at predicting pilot demand. There seems to be a few cases floating around of airlines suddenly finding themselves short of pilots.

I said in October....................


That there would be an inclination upwards starting about April May, there has been. Not very big but nonetheless a small one. My experience tells me that from a historical standpoint there WILL be a continued upturn, albeit very slowly, and I agree with Scroggs that this is a good time to consider training - for a possible chance of a job in the early of 2004. Maybe sooner!

The current position will not last. It never has in all my years in the industry. Indeed, there are a few airlines who did cut off their noses to spite their faces in the latter part of 2001, and they are wishing that they hadn't.

Still. Caution is the watchword and I would say do nothing until you are satisfied that YOU want to take a stake in early 2004.

Having said that, watch out for another upturn in business next year. It's NOT all doom and gloom. But you still have to be careful.

Good luck.

IFR

I recently met with someone well placed in the aviation industry who gave me (what I consider) a good opinion of what is likely to happen in the future.

Dealing with every aircraft manufacturer he is aware of their future plans and how they see the market developing, what he told me made me feel a bit better about the current situation.

There are already signs of recovery in the market and things are already slowly picking up. Airlines are placing orders for new aircraft (few years in advance though) and are expecting things to be nearly back to normal in about 18 months. Another interesting point was that a lot of companies are moving away from wide body jets and looking at ordering smaller regional jets to replace some of the retiring wide body fleet. more planes - more jobs!

Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel.......I just hope its not a train! :D

Hopefully in a couple of years once the more experienced pilots have been soaked up there will be hope for those of us who are planning to emerge onto the market in the next 2 to 3 years. It’s not all peachy at the moment but its definitely not all doom and gloom.

Anyway sod it, its what I'm set on doing with my life so I'm just going to get on with it.

See you all up there.

BALPA has learnt to read in crystal balls apparently. Or perhaps they have hired a Nostradamus.

Eirther way its pretty irresponsible. There is way too much uncertainty in the economy at the moment. As for a "pilot shortage" there has never been one in aviation history.:eek:

Just to show how feelings can change in a short time, I have to say that the events in Kashmir are very worrying - and, obviously, not just for our industry.

Today the UK Foreign Office has notched up the fear factor by saying that British nationals in the area should leave. Not 'consider leaving' but 'should leave'. This will be followed by other nations saying the same to their nationals, and lots of foreign residents in India and Pakistan will take their advice. In the meantime, travel to those countries and their neighbours will be badly hit.

Stock markets are beginning to factor in the consequences of a major war in the region - one which has the potential to go nuclear. At times like these, business starts to reel in its unnecessary expenses (if there are any left!) and the leisure travel industry sees a drop in forward bookings to most destinations. If tension increases further, people will stay where they feel safe - at home. The potential damage to our industry could be far worse than the Gulf or 9/11. And then there is the situation in Israel......

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're all doomed! I am, however, pointing out that events outside our control can dramatically affect our view of the near future. We think, at the moment, that western economies have weathered the worst of the recent downturn and can look forward to a period of increasing prosperity - with good consequences for our industry. But events elsewhere can stop that recovery in its tracks, and it's impossible to predict what might happen in a week or two, let alone a couple of years ahead!

So, the bottom line is do what you feel is right for you. Accept that your timing might not be great, and be prepared to have to earn your living another way if the airlines don't want you when you're ready for them. Above all, don't store up regrets for the future. If you want to do it, get on with it - applying some reasonably cautious judgement as to when to start - but don't be so timid that, before you know it, life has passed you by. There's never a reliable measure of what is the best, or worst, time to start training. A lot of luck comes into it!